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Seattle Seahawks at Las Vegas Raiders

Week 10 · Sun Nov 15, 4:05 PM ET · Market line LV +6.5 · total 40.5

Our read on this game

Nothing on this game is strong enough to back tonight. Every market we price is still below, each row with the market's own price and what our read rests on.

Strongest of themCooper KuppWR · SEA3+ receptions+135Bet365

Prices taken Wed 11 Nov, 17:56 UK. 1 row on this game carries a doubtful man, marked on the row and with the reason behind its tap.

Every market we price

31 rows on 4 markets, best first: tap a market to open it, tap a player for his numbers, the price behind his and what our read rests on.

Oddsto

31 players across every market.

Receiving yards13
Cooper Kupp WR · SEA 22+ receiving yards-112DraftKings

Cooper KuppWR · SEAReceiving yards

DataPitch 67% · Market 53%

Against this price: Gap +14pp

Under 21.5: -112DraftKings

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receiving yards
average 37.9, median 32
The line
21.5

His last 5, receiving yards

32v ARI2026 week 9
7v CHI2026 week 8
20v KC2026 week 7
50v DEN2026 week 6
15v SF2026 week 5
Tory Horton WR · SEA 16+ receiving yards-114consensus market price

Tory HortonWR · SEAReceiving yards

DataPitch 57% · Market 53%

Against this price: Gap +4pp

Under 15.5: -114consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receiving yards
average 24.2, median 19
The line
15.5

His last 5, receiving yards

22v ARI2026 week 9
26v CHI2026 week 8
0v KC2026 week 7
13v DEN2026 week 6
6v LAC2026 week 4
More players (11)
Jalen Nailor WR · LV 13+ receiving yards-108DraftKings

Jalen NailorWR · LVReceiving yards

DataPitch 55% · Market 52%

Against this price: Gap +3pp

Under 12.5: -118DraftKings

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receiving yards
average 21.8, median 16
The line
12.5

His last 5, receiving yards

9v SF2026 week 9
38v NYJ2026 week 8
14v LA2026 week 7
9v BUF2026 week 6
16v NO2026 week 3
Zach Charbonnet RB · SEA 10+ receiving yards-115DraftKings

Zach CharbonnetRB · SEAReceiving yards

DataPitch 45% · Market 54%

Against this price: Gap -9pp

Under 9.5: -111DraftKings

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receiving yards
average 11.7, median 8
The line
9.5

His last 5, receiving yards

9v ARI2026 week 9
6v CHI2026 week 8
0v SF2025 week 20
23v SF2025 week 18
12v CAR2025 week 17
Tre Tucker WR · LV 27+ receiving yards-114consensus market price

Tre TuckerWR · LVReceiving yards

DataPitch 42% · Market 53%

Against this price: Gap -11pp

Under 26.5: -112consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receiving yards
average 26.9, median 21
The line
26.5

His last 5, receiving yards

55v SF2026 week 9
0v NYJ2026 week 8
103v LA2026 week 7
97v BUF2026 week 6
41v NE2026 week 5
Jaxon Smith-Njigba WR · SEA 90+ receiving yards-113consensus market price

Jaxon Smith-NjigbaWR · SEAReceiving yards

DataPitch 39% · Market 53%

Against this price: Gap -14pp

Under 89.5: -113consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receiving yards
average 82.5, median 77
The line
89.5

His last 5, receiving yards

51v ARI2026 week 9
118v CHI2026 week 8
150v KC2026 week 7
134v DEN2026 week 6
102v SF2026 week 5
AJ Barner TE · SEA 23+ receiving yards-110DraftKings

AJ BarnerTE · SEAReceiving yards

DataPitch 35% · Market 52%

Against this price: Gap -17pp

Under 22.5: -116DraftKings

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receiving yards
average 20.1, median 16
The line
22.5

His last 5, receiving yards

7v ARI2026 week 9
23v CHI2026 week 8
42v KC2026 week 7
16v DEN2026 week 6
20v SF2026 week 5
Michael Mayer TE · LV 21+ receiving yards-114consensus market price

Michael MayerTE · LVReceiving yards

DataPitch 35% · Market 53%

Against this price: Gap -18pp

Under 20.5: -113consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receiving yards
average 18.3, median 13
The line
20.5

His last 5, receiving yards

37v SF2026 week 9
53v NYJ2026 week 8
32v LA2026 week 7
95v BUF2026 week 6
2v NE2026 week 5
Ashton Jeanty RB · LV 26+ receiving yards-116DraftKings

Ashton JeantyRB · LVReceiving yards

DataPitch 19% · Market 54%

Against this price: Gap -35pp

Under 25.5: -109DraftKings

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receiving yards
average 14.7, median 10
The line
25.5

His last 5, receiving yards

-5v SF2026 week 9
64v NYJ2026 week 8
61v LA2026 week 7
36v BUF2026 week 6
50v NE2026 week 5
Brock Bowers TE · LV 59+ receiving yards-115DraftKings

Brock BowersTE · LVReceiving yards

DataPitch 9% · Market 54%

Against this price: Gap -45pp

Under 58.5: -111DraftKings

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receiving yards
average 24.5, median 19
The line
58.5

His last 5, receiving yards

111v SF2026 week 9
92v NYJ2026 week 8
73v LA2026 week 7
70v BUF2026 week 6
110v NE2026 week 5
Jack Bech WR · LV 7+ receiving yardsno fresh market price in the 2026-11-11 capture; an older price is not shown

Jack BechWR · LVReceiving yards

DataPitch 75%

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receiving yards
average 20.1, median 16
The line
6.5

His last 5, receiving yards

9v SF2026 week 9
25v LAC2026 week 2
23v MIA2026 week 1
0v KC2025 week 18
43v HOU2025 week 16
Ian Thomas TE · LV 1+ receiving yardsno fresh market price in the 2026-11-11 capture; an older price is not shown

Ian ThomasTE · LVReceiving yards

DataPitch 54%

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receiving yards
average 9.1, median 4
The line
0.5

His last 5, receiving yards

8v LA2026 week 7
9v NE2026 week 5
32v KC2026 week 4
11v LAC2026 week 2
17v DEN2025 week 14
Eric Saubert TE · SEA 1+ receiving yardsno fresh market price in the 2026-11-11 capture; an older price is not shown

Eric SaubertTE · SEAReceiving yards

DataPitch 51%

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receiving yards
average 8.1, median 3
The line
0.5

His last 5, receiving yards

0v ARI2026 week 9
17v KC2026 week 7
0v DEN2026 week 6
0v SF2026 week 5
0v LAC2026 week 4
Receptions11
Cooper Kupp WR · SEA 3+ receptions+135Bet365

Cooper KuppWR · SEAReceptions

DataPitch 68% · Market 43%

Against this price: Gap +25pp

Under 2.5: -172Bet365

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receptions
average 3.8, median 4
The line
2.5

His last 5, receptions

3v ARI2026 week 9
1v CHI2026 week 8
2v KC2026 week 7
5v DEN2026 week 6
2v SF2026 week 5
Jack Bech WR · LV 1+ receptions-213Bet365

Jack BechWR · LVReceptions

DataPitch 75% · Market 68%

Against this price: Gap +7pp

Under 0.5: +160Bet365

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receptions
average 1.7, median 1
The line
0.5

His last 5, receptions

1v SF2026 week 9
2v LAC2026 week 2
3v MIA2026 week 1
0v KC2025 week 18
2v HOU2025 week 16
More players (9)
Jalen Nailor WR · LV 2+ receptions+117DraftKings

Jalen NailorWR · LVReceptions

DataPitch 42% · Market 46%

Against this price: Gap -4pp

Under 1.5: -149DraftKings

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receptions
average 1.5, median 1
The line
1.5

His last 5, receptions

2v SF2026 week 9
4v NYJ2026 week 8
2v LA2026 week 7
1v BUF2026 week 6
1v NO2026 week 3
Tre Tucker WR · LV 3+ receptions+115Bet365

Tre TuckerWR · LVReceptions

DataPitch 32% · Market 47%

Against this price: Gap -15pp

Under 2.5: -147Bet365

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receptions
average 2, median 2
The line
2.5

His last 5, receptions

4v SF2026 week 9
0v NYJ2026 week 8
5v LA2026 week 7
5v BUF2026 week 6
4v NE2026 week 5
Tory Horton WR · SEA 2+ receptions-174consensus market price

Tory HortonWR · SEAReceptions

DataPitch 49% · Market 64%

Against this price: Gap -15pp

Under 1.5: +130consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receptions
average 1.7, median 1
The line
1.5

His last 5, receptions

2v ARI2026 week 9
3v CHI2026 week 8
0v KC2026 week 7
1v DEN2026 week 6
1v LAC2026 week 4
Zach Charbonnet RB · SEA 2+ receptions-141Bet365

Zach CharbonnetRB · SEAReceptions

DataPitch 39% · Market 59%

Against this price: Gap -20pp

Under 1.5: +110Bet365

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receptions
average 1.5, median 1
The line
1.5

His last 5, receptions

1v ARI2026 week 9
3v CHI2026 week 8
0v SF2025 week 20
3v SF2025 week 18
2v CAR2025 week 17
AJ Barner TE · SEA 3+ receptions-132Bet365

AJ BarnerTE · SEAReceptions

DataPitch 37% · Market 57%

Against this price: Gap -20pp

Under 2.5: +100Bet365

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receptions
average 2.2, median 2
The line
2.5

His last 5, receptions

2v ARI2026 week 9
2v CHI2026 week 8
4v KC2026 week 7
3v DEN2026 week 6
3v SF2026 week 5
Jaxon Smith-Njigba WR · SEA 8+ receptions+104DraftKings

Jaxon Smith-NjigbaWR · SEAReceptions

DataPitch 28% · Market 49%

Against this price: Gap -21pp

Under 7.5: -133DraftKings

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receptions
average 6, median 6
The line
7.5

His last 5, receptions

7v ARI2026 week 9
6v CHI2026 week 8
9v KC2026 week 7
12v DEN2026 week 6
5v SF2026 week 5
Michael Mayer TE · LV 3+ receptions-116Bet365

Michael MayerTE · LVReceptions

DataPitch 30% · Market 54%

Against this price: Gap -24pp

Under 2.5: -116Bet365

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receptions
average 1.9, median 2
The line
2.5

His last 5, receptions

3v SF2026 week 9
5v NYJ2026 week 8
3v LA2026 week 7
7v BUF2026 week 6
1v NE2026 week 5
Ashton Jeanty RB · LV 5+ receptions+117DraftKings

Ashton JeantyRB · LVReceptions

DataPitch 8% · Market 46%

Against this price: Gap -38pp

Under 4.5: -152DraftKings

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receptions
average 1.9, median 2
The line
4.5

His last 5, receptions

5v SF2026 week 9
3v NYJ2026 week 8
8v LA2026 week 7
4v BUF2026 week 6
3v NE2026 week 5
Brock Bowers TE · LV 6+ receptions+110Bet365

Brock BowersTE · LVReceptions

DataPitch 7% · Market 48%

Against this price: Gap -41pp

Under 5.5: -141Bet365

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receptions
average 2.5, median 2
The line
5.5

His last 5, receptions

7v SF2026 week 9
7v NYJ2026 week 8
6v LA2026 week 7
4v BUF2026 week 6
8v NE2026 week 5
Rushing yards6
Ashton Jeanty RB · LV 35+ rushing yards-114DraftKings

Ashton JeantyRB · LVRushing yards

DataPitch 43% · Market 53%

Against this price: Gap -10pp

Under 34.5: -111DraftKings

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated rushing yards
average 35.6, median 31
The line
34.5

His last 5, rushing yards

25v SF2026 week 9
9v NYJ2026 week 8
15v LA2026 week 7
22v BUF2026 week 6
27v NE2026 week 5
Jadarian Price RB · SEA 45+ rushing yards-110DraftKings

Jadarian PriceRB · SEARushing yards

DataPitch 31% · Market 52%

Against this price: Gap -21pp

Under 44.5: -116DraftKings

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated rushing yards
average 35.9, median 29
The line
44.5

His last 5, rushing yards

24v ARI2026 week 9
29v CHI2026 week 8
15v WAS2026 week 3
52v ARI2026 week 2
52v NE2026 week 1
More players (4)
DoubtfulDrew Lock QB · SEA 7+ rushing yards-108DraftKings

Drew LockQB · SEARushing yards

Doubtful: Questionable: Oblique - Questionable for Week 10 at Las Vegas

DataPitch 28% · Market 52%

Against this price: Gap -24pp

Under 6.5: -118DraftKings

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated rushing yards
average 6.7, median 0
The line
6.5

His last 5, rushing yards

16v ARI2026 week 9
0v ARI2026 week 2
13v NE2026 week 1
0v ATL2025 week 14
-4v ARI2025 week 10
Fernando Mendoza QB · LV 12+ rushing yards-116Bet365

Fernando MendozaQB · LVRushing yards

DataPitch 23% · Market 54%

Against this price: Gap -31pp

Under 11.5: -116Bet365

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated rushing yards
average 7.7, median 2
The line
11.5

His last 1, rushing yards

3v NE2026 week 5
Zach Charbonnet RB · SEA 61+ rushing yards-114DraftKings

Zach CharbonnetRB · SEARushing yards

DataPitch 16% · Market 53%

Against this price: Gap -37pp

Under 60.5: -111DraftKings

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated rushing yards
average 34.2, median 28
The line
60.5

His last 5, rushing yards

77v ARI2026 week 9
23v CHI2026 week 8
20v SF2025 week 20
74v SF2025 week 18
110v CAR2025 week 17
Kirk Cousins QB · LV 1+ rushing yardsno fresh market price in the 2026-11-11 capture; an older price is not shown

Kirk CousinsQB · LVRushing yards

DataPitch 53%

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated rushing yards
average 6, median 1
The line
0.5

His last 5, rushing yards

0v SF2026 week 9
3v NYJ2026 week 8
6v LA2026 week 7
0v BUF2026 week 6
0v NE2026 week 5
Passing yards1
Kirk Cousins QB · LV 237+ passing yardsno fresh market price in the 2026-11-11 capture; an older price is not shown

Kirk CousinsQB · LVPassing yards

DataPitch 27%

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated passing yards
average 200.7, median 195
The line
236.5

His last 5, passing yards

216v SF2026 week 9
238v NYJ2026 week 8
289v LA2026 week 7
313v BUF2026 week 6
220v NE2026 week 5

Every price is a captured market quote in American odds, labelled as such; our percentage and the gap to the market's sit behind the row's tap. A row's colour is our number against the price: green means we rate the row's own selection well above what the price says, red means the price rates it more than we do, white means the two are close. A row's last five counts his last five games in this market, most recent first, regular season and playoffs.

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