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Buffalo Bills at New York Jets

Week 10 · Sun Nov 15, 1:00 PM ET · Market line NYJ +8.5 · total 50.5

Our read on this game

1 of the 26 rows we price on this game is strong tonight.

Strongest of themBraelon AllenRB · NYJ36+ rushing yards-114DraftKings

Prices taken Wed 11 Nov, 17:56 UK. 2 rows on this game carry a doubtful man, marked on the row and with the reason behind its tap.

Every market we price

Called before kickoff: 1. Pending 1.

26 rows on 4 markets, best first: tap a market to open it, tap a player for his numbers, the price behind his and what our read rests on.

Oddsto

26 players across every market.

Receiving yards10
James Cook III RB · BUF 8+ receiving yards-111DraftKings

James Cook IIIRB · BUFReceiving yards

DataPitch 53% · Market 53%

Against this price: Gap +0pp

Under 7.5: -114DraftKings

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receiving yards
average 14.2, median 9
The line
7.5

His last 5, receiving yards

0v MIN2026 week 9
21v BAL2026 week 8
58v LV2026 week 6
7v LA2026 week 5
8v NE2026 week 4
Khalil Shakir WR · BUF 40+ receiving yards-116Bet365

Khalil ShakirWR · BUFReceiving yards

DataPitch 45% · Market 54%

Against this price: Gap -9pp

Under 39.5: -116Bet365

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receiving yards
average 41.4, median 36
The line
39.5

His last 5, receiving yards

58v MIN2026 week 9
64v BAL2026 week 8
34v LV2026 week 6
80v LA2026 week 5
82v NE2026 week 4
More players (8)
Keon Coleman WR · BUF 29+ receiving yards-111DraftKings

Keon ColemanWR · BUFReceiving yards

DataPitch 34% · Market 53%

Against this price: Gap -19pp

Under 28.5: -115DraftKings

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receiving yards
average 24.3, median 18
The line
28.5

His last 5, receiving yards

17v MIN2026 week 9
4v BAL2026 week 8
59v LV2026 week 6
7v LA2026 week 5
116v NE2026 week 4
DJ Moore WR · BUF 46+ receiving yards-111DraftKings

DJ MooreWR · BUFReceiving yards

DataPitch 27% · Market 53%

Against this price: Gap -26pp

Under 45.5: -115DraftKings

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receiving yards
average 32.6, median 26
The line
45.5

His last 5, receiving yards

25v MIN2026 week 9
82v BAL2026 week 8
11v NE2026 week 4
67v LAC2026 week 3
0v DET2026 week 2
Breece Hall RB · NYJ 17+ receiving yards-113consensus market price

Breece HallRB · NYJReceiving yards

DataPitch 21% · Market 53%

Against this price: Gap -32pp

Under 16.5: -117consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receiving yards
average 9.5, median 5
The line
16.5

His last 5, receiving yards

26v KC2026 week 9
23v DET2026 week 3
63v GB2026 week 2
16v TEN2026 week 1
18v NE2025 week 17
DoubtfulGarrett Wilson WR · NYJ 62+ receiving yards-120Bet365

Garrett WilsonWR · NYJReceiving yards

Doubtful: Concussion (status not in our vocabulary): Inactive for Week 9 at Kansas City

DataPitch 17% · Market 55%

Against this price: Gap -38pp

Under 61.5: -111Bet365

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receiving yards
average 36.5, median 32
The line
61.5

His last 5, receiving yards

83v LV2026 week 8
26v MIA2026 week 7
44v NE2026 week 6
104v CLE2026 week 5
27v CHI2026 week 4
Jackson Hawes TE · BUF 1+ receiving yardsno fresh market price in the 2026-11-11 capture; an older price is not shown

Jackson HawesTE · BUFReceiving yards

DataPitch 69%

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receiving yards
average 15.8, median 10
The line
0.5

His last 5, receiving yards

8v MIN2026 week 9
7v BAL2026 week 8
0v LV2026 week 6
0v LA2026 week 5
0v LAC2026 week 3
Dawson Knox TE · BUF 12+ receiving yardsno fresh market price in the 2026-11-11 capture; an older price is not shown

Dawson KnoxTE · BUFReceiving yards

DataPitch 63%

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receiving yards
average 23.9, median 18
The line
11.5

His last 5, receiving yards

37v MIN2026 week 9
6v BAL2026 week 8
0v LV2026 week 6
6v LA2026 week 5
13v NE2026 week 4
Mason Taylor TE · NYJ 22+ receiving yardsno fresh market price in the 2026-11-11 capture; an older price is not shown

Mason TaylorTE · NYJReceiving yards

DataPitch 30%

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receiving yards
average 16.8, median 12
The line
21.5

His last 5, receiving yards

11v KC2026 week 9
19v LV2026 week 8
62v MIA2026 week 7
33v NE2026 week 6
24v CLE2026 week 5
Adonai Mitchell WR · NYJ 37+ receiving yardsno fresh market price in the 2026-11-11 capture; an older price is not shown

Adonai MitchellWR · NYJReceiving yards

DataPitch 23%

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receiving yards
average 23.9, median 18
The line
36.5

His last 5, receiving yards

0v KC2026 week 9
142v LV2026 week 8
0v MIA2026 week 7
63v GB2026 week 2
60v TEN2026 week 1
Receptions9
Dawson Knox TE · BUF 2+ receptions-116Bet365

Dawson KnoxTE · BUFReceptions

DataPitch 57% · Market 54%

Against this price: Gap +3pp

Under 1.5: -116Bet365

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receptions
average 2.1, median 2
The line
1.5

His last 5, receptions

4v MIN2026 week 9
1v BAL2026 week 8
1v LV2026 week 6
1v LA2026 week 5
2v NE2026 week 4
Khalil Shakir WR · BUF 4+ receptions-132Bet365

Khalil ShakirWR · BUFReceptions

DataPitch 54% · Market 57%

Against this price: Gap -3pp

Under 3.5: +100Bet365

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receptions
average 4, median 4
The line
3.5

His last 5, receptions

4v MIN2026 week 9
5v BAL2026 week 8
4v LV2026 week 6
3v LA2026 week 5
7v NE2026 week 4
More players (7)
James Cook III RB · BUF 2+ receptions+105DraftKings

James Cook IIIRB · BUFReceptions

DataPitch 41% · Market 49%

Against this price: Gap -8pp

Under 1.5: -133DraftKings

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receptions
average 1.5, median 1
The line
1.5

His last 5, receptions

0v MIN2026 week 9
2v BAL2026 week 8
3v LV2026 week 6
1v LA2026 week 5
2v NE2026 week 4
Mason Taylor TE · NYJ 3+ receptions+122Bet365

Mason TaylorTE · NYJReceptions

DataPitch 28% · Market 45%

Against this price: Gap -17pp

Under 2.5: -156Bet365

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receptions
average 1.8, median 2
The line
2.5

His last 5, receptions

1v KC2026 week 9
3v LV2026 week 8
5v MIA2026 week 7
4v NE2026 week 6
3v CLE2026 week 5
Keon Coleman WR · BUF 3+ receptions+114DraftKings

Keon ColemanWR · BUFReceptions

DataPitch 26% · Market 47%

Against this price: Gap -21pp

Under 2.5: -147DraftKings

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receptions
average 1.7, median 1
The line
2.5

His last 5, receptions

3v MIN2026 week 9
1v BAL2026 week 8
4v LV2026 week 6
1v LA2026 week 5
6v NE2026 week 4
Breece Hall RB · NYJ 3+ receptions+134DraftKings

Breece HallRB · NYJReceptions

DataPitch 14% · Market 43%

Against this price: Gap -29pp

Under 2.5: -172DraftKings

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receptions
average 1.1, median 1
The line
2.5

His last 5, receptions

3v KC2026 week 9
3v DET2026 week 3
5v GB2026 week 2
2v TEN2026 week 1
2v NE2025 week 17
DJ Moore WR · BUF 4+ receptions-116Bet365

DJ MooreWR · BUFReceptions

DataPitch 19% · Market 54%

Against this price: Gap -35pp

Under 3.5: -116Bet365

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receptions
average 2.1, median 2
The line
3.5

His last 5, receptions

3v MIN2026 week 9
4v BAL2026 week 8
1v NE2026 week 4
6v LAC2026 week 3
0v DET2026 week 2
DoubtfulGarrett Wilson WR · NYJ 6+ receptions+107DraftKings

Garrett WilsonWR · NYJReceptions

Doubtful: Concussion (status not in our vocabulary): Inactive for Week 9 at Kansas City

DataPitch 10% · Market 48%

Against this price: Gap -38pp

Under 5.5: -137DraftKings

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receptions
average 2.9, median 3
The line
5.5

His last 5, receptions

6v LV2026 week 8
2v MIA2026 week 7
4v NE2026 week 6
7v CLE2026 week 5
3v CHI2026 week 4
Adonai Mitchell WR · NYJ 4+ receptionsno fresh market price in the 2026-11-11 capture; an older price is not shown

Adonai MitchellWR · NYJReceptions

DataPitch 14%

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receptions
average 1.9, median 2
The line
3.5

His last 5, receptions

0v KC2026 week 9
7v LV2026 week 8
0v MIA2026 week 7
6v GB2026 week 2
3v TEN2026 week 1
Rushing yards15
Braelon Allen RB · NYJ 36+ rushing yards-114DraftKings

Braelon AllenRB · NYJRushing yards

DataPitch 73% · Market 53%

Against this price: Gap +20pp

Under 35.5: -111DraftKings

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated rushing yards
average 65.6, median 58
The line
35.5

His last 5, rushing yards

33v KC2026 week 9
147v LV2026 week 8
104v MIA2026 week 7
78v NE2026 week 6
116v CLE2026 week 5
James Cook III RB · BUF 92+ rushing yards-116Bet365

James Cook IIIRB · BUFRushing yards

DataPitch 57% · Market 54%

Against this price: Gap +3pp

Under 91.5: -116Bet365

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated rushing yards
average 106.9, median 101
The line
91.5

His last 5, rushing yards

107v MIN2026 week 9
80v BAL2026 week 8
95v LV2026 week 6
111v LA2026 week 5
75v NE2026 week 4
More players (3)
Breece Hall RB · NYJ 56+ rushing yards-112DraftKings

Breece HallRB · NYJRushing yards

DataPitch 50% · Market 53%

Against this price: Gap -3pp

Under 55.5: -112DraftKings

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated rushing yards
average 62.5, median 56
The line
55.5

His last 5, rushing yards

61v KC2026 week 9
32v DET2026 week 3
29v GB2026 week 2
102v TEN2026 week 1
111v NE2025 week 17
Josh Allen QB · BUF 29+ rushing yards-116DraftKings

Josh AllenQB · BUFRushing yards

DataPitch 38% · Market 54%

Against this price: Gap -16pp

Under 28.5: -110DraftKings

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated rushing yards
average 27.6, median 21
The line
28.5

His last 5, rushing yards

15v MIN2026 week 9
30v BAL2026 week 8
1v LV2026 week 6
121v LA2026 week 5
4v NE2026 week 4
Geno Smith QB · NYJ 5+ rushing yards-116Bet365

Geno SmithQB · NYJRushing yards

DataPitch 31% · Market 54%

Against this price: Gap -23pp

Under 4.5: -116Bet365

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated rushing yards
average 5.9, median 0
The line
4.5

His last 5, rushing yards

8v KC2026 week 9
4v LV2026 week 8
0v MIA2026 week 7
-1v NE2026 week 6
7v CLE2026 week 5
Passing yards2
Josh Allen QB · BUF 236+ passing yards-118consensus market price

Josh AllenQB · BUFPassing yards

DataPitch 34% · Market 54%

Against this price: Gap -20pp

Under 235.5: -118consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated passing yards
average 211.7, median 206
The line
235.5

His last 5, passing yards

205v MIN2026 week 9
280v BAL2026 week 8
242v LV2026 week 6
204v LA2026 week 5
249v NE2026 week 4
Geno Smith QB · NYJ 219+ passing yards-114DraftKings

Geno SmithQB · NYJPassing yards

DataPitch 28% · Market 53%

Against this price: Gap -25pp

Under 218.5: -111DraftKings

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated passing yards
average 185.9, median 181
The line
218.5

His last 5, passing yards

123v KC2026 week 9
273v LV2026 week 8
271v MIA2026 week 7
227v NE2026 week 6
142v CLE2026 week 5

Every price is a captured market quote in American odds, labelled as such; our percentage and the gap to the market's sit behind the row's tap. A row's colour is our number against the price: green means we rate the row's own selection well above what the price says, red means the price rates it more than we do, white means the two are close. A row's last five counts his last five games in this market, most recent first, regular season and playoffs.

Around this game

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