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Washington Commanders at New York Giants

Week 10 · Thu Nov 12, 8:15 PM ET · Market line NYG -1.5 · total 40.5

How our calls did

Final: Washington Commanders 24, New York Giants 21

Called before kickoff: 11. Pending 11.

Each called row carries the same stamp in its market below. The green or red down a row's side is still our read against the price before kickoff, not how it ended. Prices taken Wed 11 Nov, 17:58 UK.

Every market we price

31 rows on 4 markets, best first: tap a market to open it, tap a player for his numbers, the price behind his and what our read rests on.

Receiving yards612
Isaiah Likely TE · NYG Under 48.5 receiving yards-112price shown when this board was published

Isaiah LikelyTE · NYGReceiving yards

DataPitch 87% · Market 53%

Against this price: Gap +34pp

Over 48.5: -113price shown when this board was published

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receiving yards
average 23, median 16
The line
48.5

His last 5, receiving yards

53v PHI2026 week 9
12v HOU2026 week 7
99v NO2026 week 6
94v WAS2026 week 5
66v ARI2026 week 4
Theo Johnson TE · NYG 6+ receiving yards-110price shown when this board was published

Theo JohnsonTE · NYGReceiving yards

DataPitch 85% · Market 52%

Against this price: Gap +33pp

Under 5.5: -114price shown when this board was published

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receiving yards
average 30.9, median 25
The line
5.5

His last 5, receiving yards

35v WAS2026 week 5
11v ARI2026 week 4
0v LA2026 week 2
9v DAL2026 week 1
0v MIN2025 week 16
More players (10)
Malik Nabers WR · NYG Under 67.5 receiving yards-112price shown when this board was published

Malik NabersWR · NYGReceiving yards

DataPitch 84% · Market 53%

Against this price: Gap +31pp

Over 67.5: -113price shown when this board was published

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receiving yards
average 38.2, median 32
The line
67.5

His last 5, receiving yards

43v PHI2026 week 9
111v HOU2026 week 7
165v NO2026 week 6
121v WAS2026 week 5
112v ARI2026 week 4
Austin Ekeler RB · WAS 9+ receiving yards-112price shown when this board was published

Austin EkelerRB · WASReceiving yards

DataPitch 69% · Market 53%

Against this price: Gap +16pp

Under 8.5: -115price shown when this board was published

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receiving yards
average 19.5, median 15
The line
8.5

His last 5, receiving yards

18v LA2026 week 9
0v PHI2026 week 8
4v SF2026 week 6
15v NYG2026 week 5
11v IND2026 week 4
Cam Skattebo RB · NYG 8+ receiving yards-112price shown when this board was published

Cam SkatteboRB · NYGReceiving yards

DataPitch 65% · Market 53%

Against this price: Gap +12pp

Under 7.5: -113price shown when this board was published

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receiving yards
average 17.6, median 13
The line
7.5

His last 5, receiving yards

-3v HOU2026 week 7
12v WAS2026 week 5
8v ARI2026 week 4
40v TEN2026 week 3
19v LA2026 week 2
Stefon Diggs WR · WAS 41+ receiving yards-115price shown when this board was published

Stefon DiggsWR · WASReceiving yards

DataPitch 58% · Market 54%

Against this price: Gap +4pp

Under 40.5: -113price shown when this board was published

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receiving yards
average 52.7, median 47
The line
40.5

His last 5, receiving yards

51v LA2026 week 9
38v PHI2026 week 8
44v SF2026 week 6
35v IND2026 week 4
33v SEA2026 week 3
Ben Sinnott TE · WAS 1+ receiving yards+160price shown when this board was published

Ben SinnottTE · WASReceiving yards

DataPitch 80% · Market 39%

Against this price: Gap +41pp

Under 0.5: -213price shown when this board was published

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receiving yards
average 22.9, median 17
The line
0.5

His last 5, receiving yards

0v NYG2026 week 5
0v SEA2026 week 3
6v DAL2026 week 2
3v PHI2025 week 18
29v DAL2025 week 17
Darnell Mooney WR · NYG 16+ receiving yards-113price shown when this board was published

Darnell MooneyWR · NYGReceiving yards

DataPitch 63% · Market 53%

Against this price: Gap +10pp

Under 15.5: -111price shown when this board was published

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receiving yards
average 29.1, median 23
The line
15.5

His last 5, receiving yards

54v PHI2026 week 9
4v HOU2026 week 7
0v NO2026 week 6
14v WAS2026 week 5
0v ARI2026 week 4
Rachaad White RB · WAS 13+ receiving yards-115price shown when this board was published

Rachaad WhiteRB · WASReceiving yards

DataPitch 53% · Market 54%

Against this price: Gap -1pp

Under 12.5: -112price shown when this board was published

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receiving yards
average 17.4, median 14
The line
12.5

His last 5, receiving yards

41v LA2026 week 9
5v PHI2026 week 8
30v SF2026 week 6
2v NYG2026 week 5
6v SEA2026 week 3
DoubtfulTreylon Burks WR · WAS 32+ receiving yards-111price shown when this board was published

Treylon BurksWR · WASReceiving yards

Doubtful: Foot (status not in our vocabulary): Inactive for Week 9 vs. L.A. Rams

DataPitch 39% · Market 53%

Against this price: Gap -14pp

Under 31.5: -114price shown when this board was published

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receiving yards
average 29.3, median 24
The line
31.5

His last 5, receiving yards

81v PHI2026 week 8
66v SF2026 week 6
26v NYG2026 week 5
47v IND2026 week 4
13v SEA2026 week 3
Chig Okonkwo TE · WAS 35+ receiving yards-113price shown when this board was published

Chig OkonkwoTE · WASReceiving yards

DataPitch 25% · Market 53%

Against this price: Gap -28pp

Under 34.5: -111price shown when this board was published

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receiving yards
average 24.1, median 19
The line
34.5

His last 5, receiving yards

57v LA2026 week 9
32v PHI2026 week 8
69v SF2026 week 6
60v NYG2026 week 5
5v IND2026 week 4
John Bates TE · WAS 1+ receiving yardsno price held

John BatesTE · WASReceiving yards

DataPitch 85%

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receiving yards
average 22.2, median 17
The line
0.5

His last 5, receiving yards

0v PHI2026 week 8
4v SF2026 week 6
1v NYG2026 week 5
9v SEA2026 week 3
13v PHI2026 week 1
Receptions511
Isaiah Likely TE · NYG Under 4.5 receptions-104price shown when this board was published

Isaiah LikelyTE · NYGReceptions

DataPitch 90% · Market 51%

Against this price: Gap +39pp

Over 4.5: -122price shown when this board was published

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receptions
average 2.1, median 2
The line
4.5

His last 5, receptions

5v PHI2026 week 9
2v HOU2026 week 7
6v NO2026 week 6
11v WAS2026 week 5
7v ARI2026 week 4
Ben Sinnott TE · WAS 1+ receptions+126price shown when this board was published

Ben SinnottTE · WASReceptions

DataPitch 80% · Market 44%

Against this price: Gap +36pp

Under 0.5: -140price shown when this board was published

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receptions
average 1.9, median 2
The line
0.5

His last 5, receptions

0v NYG2026 week 5
0v SEA2026 week 3
1v DAL2026 week 2
2v PHI2025 week 18
3v DAL2025 week 17
More players (9)
Theo Johnson TE · NYG 1+ receptions-171price shown when this board was published

Theo JohnsonTE · NYGReceptions

DataPitch 85% · Market 63%

Against this price: Gap +22pp

Under 0.5: +131price shown when this board was published

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receptions
average 2.3, median 2
The line
0.5

His last 5, receptions

2v WAS2026 week 5
1v ARI2026 week 4
0v LA2026 week 2
1v DAL2026 week 1
0v MIN2025 week 16
Austin Ekeler RB · WAS 2+ receptions-110price shown when this board was published

Austin EkelerRB · WASReceptions

DataPitch 64% · Market 52%

Against this price: Gap +12pp

Under 1.5: -115price shown when this board was published

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receptions
average 2.4, median 2
The line
1.5

His last 5, receptions

2v LA2026 week 9
0v PHI2026 week 8
2v SF2026 week 6
1v NYG2026 week 5
1v IND2026 week 4
Cam Skattebo RB · NYG 2+ receptions+125price shown when this board was published

Cam SkatteboRB · NYGReceptions

DataPitch 54% · Market 44%

Against this price: Gap +10pp

Under 1.5: -161price shown when this board was published

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receptions
average 2, median 2
The line
1.5

His last 5, receptions

1v HOU2026 week 7
2v WAS2026 week 5
1v ARI2026 week 4
3v TEN2026 week 3
4v LA2026 week 2
Darnell Mooney WR · NYG 2+ receptions-105price shown when this board was published

Darnell MooneyWR · NYGReceptions

DataPitch 55% · Market 51%

Against this price: Gap +4pp

Under 1.5: -120price shown when this board was published

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receptions
average 2, median 2
The line
1.5

His last 5, receptions

3v PHI2026 week 9
1v HOU2026 week 7
0v NO2026 week 6
2v WAS2026 week 5
0v ARI2026 week 4
Rachaad White RB · WAS 3+ receptions+117price shown when this board was published

Rachaad WhiteRB · WASReceptions

DataPitch 39% · Market 46%

Against this price: Gap -7pp

Under 2.5: -158price shown when this board was published

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receptions
average 2.3, median 2
The line
2.5

His last 5, receptions

2v LA2026 week 9
2v PHI2026 week 8
4v SF2026 week 6
1v NYG2026 week 5
1v SEA2026 week 3
DoubtfulTreylon Burks WR · WAS 3+ receptions+133price shown when this board was published

Treylon BurksWR · WASReceptions

Doubtful: Foot (status not in our vocabulary): Inactive for Week 9 vs. L.A. Rams

DataPitch 36% · Market 43%

Against this price: Gap -7pp

Under 2.5: -182price shown when this board was published

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receptions
average 2.2, median 2
The line
2.5

His last 5, receptions

3v PHI2026 week 8
4v SF2026 week 6
2v NYG2026 week 5
1v IND2026 week 4
2v SEA2026 week 3
Stefon Diggs WR · WAS 4+ receptions-165price shown when this board was published

Stefon DiggsWR · WASReceptions

DataPitch 55% · Market 62%

Against this price: Gap -7pp

Under 3.5: +125price shown when this board was published

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receptions
average 4.1, median 4
The line
3.5

His last 5, receptions

3v LA2026 week 9
3v PHI2026 week 8
6v SF2026 week 6
5v IND2026 week 4
4v SEA2026 week 3
Chig Okonkwo TE · WAS 4+ receptions-150price shown when this board was published

Chig OkonkwoTE · WASReceptions

DataPitch 25% · Market 60%

Against this price: Gap -35pp

Under 3.5: +115price shown when this board was published

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receptions
average 2.4, median 2
The line
3.5

His last 5, receptions

6v LA2026 week 9
2v PHI2026 week 8
7v SF2026 week 6
4v NYG2026 week 5
2v IND2026 week 4
Malik Nabers WR · NYG 6+ receptions-130price shown when this board was published

Malik NabersWR · NYGReceptions

DataPitch 6% · Market 57%

Against this price: Gap -51pp

Under 5.5: +100price shown when this board was published

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receptions
average 2.4, median 2
The line
5.5

His last 5, receptions

5v PHI2026 week 9
7v HOU2026 week 7
12v NO2026 week 6
11v WAS2026 week 5
6v ARI2026 week 4
Rushing yards6
Devin Singletary RB · NYG 24+ rushing yards-113price shown when this board was published

Devin SingletaryRB · NYGRushing yards

DataPitch 50% · Market 53%

Against this price: Gap -3pp

Under 23.5: -110price shown when this board was published

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated rushing yards
average 29.8, median 24
The line
23.5

His last 5, rushing yards

31v PHI2026 week 9
41v HOU2026 week 7
14v NO2026 week 6
9v LA2026 week 2
16v DAL2026 week 1
Austin Ekeler RB · WAS 30+ rushing yards-110price shown when this board was published

Austin EkelerRB · WASRushing yards

DataPitch 47% · Market 52%

Against this price: Gap -5pp

Under 29.5: -117price shown when this board was published

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated rushing yards
average 34.9, median 27
The line
29.5

His last 5, rushing yards

16v LA2026 week 9
36v PHI2026 week 8
3v SF2026 week 6
-1v NYG2026 week 5
29v IND2026 week 4
More players (4)
Cam Skattebo RB · NYG 51+ rushing yards-116price shown when this board was published

Cam SkatteboRB · NYGRushing yards

DataPitch 48% · Market 54%

Against this price: Gap -6pp

Under 50.5: -110price shown when this board was published

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated rushing yards
average 55.5, median 49
The line
50.5

His last 5, rushing yards

124v HOU2026 week 7
59v WAS2026 week 5
58v ARI2026 week 4
60v TEN2026 week 3
36v LA2026 week 2
Rachaad White RB · WAS 38+ rushing yards-112price shown when this board was published

Rachaad WhiteRB · WASRushing yards

DataPitch 47% · Market 53%

Against this price: Gap -6pp

Under 37.5: -112price shown when this board was published

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated rushing yards
average 42.6, median 35
The line
37.5

His last 5, rushing yards

28v LA2026 week 9
55v PHI2026 week 8
27v SF2026 week 6
18v NYG2026 week 5
35v SEA2026 week 3
Jayden Daniels QB · WAS 36+ rushing yards-111price shown when this board was published

Jayden DanielsQB · WASRushing yards

DataPitch 25% · Market 53%

Against this price: Gap -28pp

Under 35.5: -108price shown when this board was published

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated rushing yards
average 24.2, median 18
The line
35.5

His last 5, rushing yards

16v LA2026 week 9
23v PHI2026 week 8
10v SF2026 week 6
103v NYG2026 week 5
69v DAL2026 week 2
J.J. McCarthy QB · NYG 18+ rushing yards-109price shown when this board was published

J.J. McCarthyQB · NYGRushing yards

DataPitch 20% · Market 52%

Against this price: Gap -32pp

Under 17.5: -114price shown when this board was published

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated rushing yards
average 10, median 3
The line
17.5

His last 5, rushing yards

22v PHI2026 week 9
1v HOU2026 week 7
26v NO2026 week 6
2v WAS2026 week 5
7v GB2025 week 18
Passing yards2
J.J. McCarthy QB · NYG 211+ passing yards+100price shown when this board was published

J.J. McCarthyQB · NYGPassing yards

DataPitch 51% · Market 50%

Against this price: Gap +1pp

Under 210.5: -113price shown when this board was published

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated passing yards
average 217.2, median 211
The line
210.5

His last 5, passing yards

98v PHI2026 week 9
232v HOU2026 week 7
237v NO2026 week 6
182v GB2025 week 18
83v NYG2025 week 16
Jayden Daniels QB · WAS 203+ passing yards-105price shown when this board was published

Jayden DanielsQB · WASPassing yards

DataPitch 29% · Market 51%

Against this price: Gap -22pp

Under 202.5: -114price shown when this board was published

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated passing yards
average 175, median 170
The line
202.5

His last 5, passing yards

253v LA2026 week 9
204v PHI2026 week 8
261v SF2026 week 6
178v NYG2026 week 5
96v DAL2026 week 2

Every price is a captured market quote in American odds, labelled as such; our percentage and the gap to the market's sit behind the row's tap. A row's colour is our number against the price: green means we rate the row's own selection well above what the price says, red means the price rates it more than we do, white means the two are close. A row's last five counts his last five games in this market, most recent first, regular season and playoffs.

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