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Los Angeles Chargers at Baltimore Ravens

Week 10 · Mon Nov 16, 8:15 PM ET · Market line BAL -4.5 · total 38.5

Our read on this game

3 of the 22 rows we price on this game are strong tonight, and 2 of them are Los Angeles Chargers players.

Strongest of themOmarion HamptonRB · LAC5+ receiving yards-114consensus market price

Prices taken Wed 11 Nov, 17:56 UK. 2 rows on this game carry a doubtful man, marked on the row and with the reason behind its tap.

Every market we price

Called before kickoff: 3. Pending 3.

22 rows on 4 markets, best first: tap a market to open it, tap a player for his numbers, the price behind his and what our read rests on.

Oddsto

22 players across every market.

Receiving yards16
Omarion Hampton RB · LAC 5+ receiving yards-114consensus market price

Omarion HamptonRB · LACReceiving yards

DataPitch 82% · Market 53%

Against this price: Gap +29pp

Under 4.5: -114consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receiving yards
average 20.9, median 17
The line
4.5

His last 5, receiving yards

0v HOU2026 week 9
7v LA2026 week 8
21v KC2026 week 6
6v DEN2026 week 5
8v SEA2026 week 4
Mark Andrews TE · BAL 20+ receiving yards-114consensus market price

Mark AndrewsTE · BALReceiving yards

DataPitch 51% · Market 53%

Against this price: Gap -2pp

Under 19.5: -114consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receiving yards
average 24.8, median 20
The line
19.5

His last 5, receiving yards

19v JAX2026 week 9
14v BUF2026 week 8
23v CIN2026 week 7
4v CLE2026 week 6
28v ATL2026 week 5
More players (4)
Kimani Vidal RB · LAC 10+ receiving yards-114consensus market price

Kimani VidalRB · LACReceiving yards

DataPitch 49% · Market 53%

Against this price: Gap -4pp

Under 9.5: -114consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receiving yards
average 14.1, median 9
The line
9.5

His last 5, receiving yards

6v HOU2026 week 9
7v LA2026 week 8
19v KC2026 week 6
-1v DEN2026 week 5
11v SEA2026 week 4
Derrick Henry RB · BAL 8+ receiving yards-111Bet365

Derrick HenryRB · BALReceiving yards

DataPitch 45% · Market 53%

Against this price: Gap -8pp

Under 7.5: -120Bet365

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receiving yards
average 10, median 6
The line
7.5

His last 5, receiving yards

0v JAX2026 week 9
7v BUF2026 week 8
4v CIN2026 week 7
2v CLE2026 week 6
18v ATL2026 week 5
Zay Flowers WR · BAL 65+ receiving yards-114consensus market price

Zay FlowersWR · BALReceiving yards

DataPitch 35% · Market 53%

Against this price: Gap -18pp

Under 64.5: -114consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receiving yards
average 55.7, median 50
The line
64.5

His last 5, receiving yards

6v JAX2026 week 9
0v BUF2026 week 8
137v CIN2026 week 7
66v CLE2026 week 6
53v ATL2026 week 5
Rashod Bateman WR · BAL 24+ receiving yards-115consensus market price

Rashod BatemanWR · BALReceiving yards

DataPitch 28% · Market 54%

Against this price: Gap -26pp

Under 23.5: -115consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receiving yards
average 17.1, median 12
The line
23.5

His last 5, receiving yards

6v JAX2026 week 9
22v BUF2026 week 8
33v CIN2026 week 7
0v CLE2026 week 6
62v ATL2026 week 5
Receptions16
Omarion Hampton RB · LAC 2+ receptions+154consensus market price

Omarion HamptonRB · LACReceptions

DataPitch 67% · Market 39%

Against this price: Gap +28pp

Under 1.5: -210consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receptions
average 2.6, median 2
The line
1.5

His last 5, receptions

0v HOU2026 week 9
2v LA2026 week 8
4v KC2026 week 6
1v DEN2026 week 5
2v SEA2026 week 4
Mark Andrews TE · BAL 3+ receptions-111Bet365

Mark AndrewsTE · BALReceptions

DataPitch 48% · Market 53%

Against this price: Gap -5pp

Under 2.5: -120Bet365

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receptions
average 2.7, median 2
The line
2.5

His last 5, receptions

2v JAX2026 week 9
3v BUF2026 week 8
3v CIN2026 week 7
1v CLE2026 week 6
4v ATL2026 week 5
More players (4)
Derrick Henry RB · BAL 2+ receptions+110Bet365

Derrick HenryRB · BALReceptions

DataPitch 32% · Market 48%

Against this price: Gap -16pp

Under 1.5: -141Bet365

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receptions
average 1.2, median 1
The line
1.5

His last 5, receptions

0v JAX2026 week 9
2v BUF2026 week 8
1v CIN2026 week 7
1v CLE2026 week 6
1v ATL2026 week 5
Kimani Vidal RB · LAC 2+ receptions-205consensus market price

Kimani VidalRB · LACReceptions

DataPitch 45% · Market 67%

Against this price: Gap -22pp

Under 1.5: +152consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receptions
average 1.7, median 1
The line
1.5

His last 5, receptions

1v HOU2026 week 9
2v LA2026 week 8
3v KC2026 week 6
1v DEN2026 week 5
2v SEA2026 week 4
Zay Flowers WR · BAL 6+ receptions+100consensus market price

Zay FlowersWR · BALReceptions

DataPitch 24% · Market 50%

Against this price: Gap -26pp

Under 5.5: -140consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receptions
average 4.1, median 4
The line
5.5

His last 5, receptions

3v JAX2026 week 9
0v BUF2026 week 8
8v CIN2026 week 7
6v CLE2026 week 6
8v ATL2026 week 5
Rashod Bateman WR · BAL 3+ receptions+128consensus market price

Rashod BatemanWR · BALReceptions

DataPitch 16% · Market 44%

Against this price: Gap -28pp

Under 2.5: -181consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receptions
average 1.3, median 1
The line
2.5

His last 5, receptions

1v JAX2026 week 9
1v BUF2026 week 8
2v CIN2026 week 7
0v CLE2026 week 6
5v ATL2026 week 5
Rushing yards18
Derrick Henry RB · BAL 76+ rushing yards-116Bet365

Derrick HenryRB · BALRushing yards

DataPitch 74% · Market 54%

Against this price: Gap +20pp

Under 75.5: -116Bet365

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated rushing yards
average 107.8, median 103
The line
75.5

His last 5, rushing yards

57v JAX2026 week 9
53v BUF2026 week 8
45v CIN2026 week 7
58v CLE2026 week 6
102v ATL2026 week 5
Keaton Mitchell RB · LAC 10+ rushing yards-114consensus market price

Keaton MitchellRB · LACRushing yards

DataPitch 55% · Market 53%

Against this price: Gap +2pp

Under 9.5: -114consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated rushing yards
average 19, median 12
The line
9.5

His last 5, rushing yards

33v HOU2026 week 9
6v LA2026 week 8
4v KC2026 week 6
11v DEN2026 week 5
39v SEA2026 week 4
More players (6)
Jacoby Brissett QB · BAL 8+ rushing yards-114consensus market price

Jacoby BrissettQB · BALRushing yards

DataPitch 49% · Market 53%

Against this price: Gap -4pp

Under 7.5: -114consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated rushing yards
average 13.3, median 7
The line
7.5

His last 5, rushing yards

7v DAL2026 week 8
16v DEN2026 week 7
2v LA2026 week 6
19v DET2026 week 5
18v NYG2026 week 4
Justice Hill RB · BAL 15+ rushing yards-114consensus market price

Justice HillRB · BALRushing yards

DataPitch 41% · Market 53%

Against this price: Gap -12pp

Under 14.5: -114consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated rushing yards
average 18.2, median 11
The line
14.5

His last 5, rushing yards

85v JAX2026 week 9
15v BUF2026 week 8
7v CIN2026 week 7
0v CLE2026 week 6
73v ATL2026 week 5
Kimani Vidal RB · LAC 19+ rushing yards-114consensus market price

Kimani VidalRB · LACRushing yards

DataPitch 38% · Market 53%

Against this price: Gap -15pp

Under 18.5: -114consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated rushing yards
average 18.9, median 13
The line
18.5

His last 5, rushing yards

30v HOU2026 week 9
23v LA2026 week 8
21v KC2026 week 6
57v DEN2026 week 5
25v SEA2026 week 4
Zay Flowers WR · BAL 4+ rushing yards-108consensus market price

Zay FlowersWR · BALRushing yards

DataPitch 7% · Market 52%

Against this price: Gap -45pp

Under 3.5: -120consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated rushing yards
average 1.2, median 0
The line
3.5

His last 5, rushing yards

17v JAX2026 week 9
0v BUF2026 week 8
0v CIN2026 week 7
1v CLE2026 week 6
13v ATL2026 week 5
Omarion Hampton RB · LAC 38+ rushing yardsno fresh market price in the 2026-11-11 capture; an older price is not shown

Omarion HamptonRB · LACRushing yards

DataPitch 38%

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated rushing yards
average 35.7, median 29
The line
37.5

His last 5, rushing yards

60v HOU2026 week 9
20v LA2026 week 8
18v KC2026 week 6
33v DEN2026 week 5
45v SEA2026 week 4
DoubtfulJustin Herbert QB · LAC 22+ rushing yardsno fresh market price in the 2026-11-11 capture; an older price is not shown

Justin HerbertQB · LACRushing yards

Doubtful: Questionable: Finger - Questionable for Week 10 at Baltimore

DataPitch 16%

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated rushing yards
average 10.2, median 5
The line
21.5

His last 5, rushing yards

7v HOU2026 week 9
15v LA2026 week 8
26v KC2026 week 6
54v DEN2026 week 5
40v SEA2026 week 4
Passing yards2
DoubtfulJustin Herbert QB · LAC 200+ passing yards-125consensus market price

Justin HerbertQB · LACPassing yards

Doubtful: Questionable: Finger - Questionable for Week 10 at Baltimore

DataPitch 52% · Market 56%

Against this price: Gap -4pp

Under 199.5: +100consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated passing yards
average 208.2, median 203
The line
199.5

His last 5, passing yards

153v HOU2026 week 9
231v LA2026 week 8
186v KC2026 week 6
82v DEN2026 week 5
154v SEA2026 week 4
Jacoby Brissett QB · BAL 191+ passing yards-116Bet365

Jacoby BrissettQB · BALPassing yards

DataPitch 18% · Market 54%

Against this price: Gap -36pp

Under 190.5: -116Bet365

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated passing yards
average 140.5, median 136
The line
190.5

His last 5, passing yards

83v DAL2026 week 8
259v DEN2026 week 7
218v LA2026 week 6
264v DET2026 week 5
147v NYG2026 week 4

Every price is a captured market quote in American odds, labelled as such; our percentage and the gap to the market's sit behind the row's tap. A row's colour is our number against the price: green means we rate the row's own selection well above what the price says, red means the price rates it more than we do, white means the two are close. A row's last five counts his last five games in this market, most recent first, regular season and playoffs.

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