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Kansas City Chiefs at Atlanta Falcons

Week 10 · Sun Nov 15, 1:00 PM ET · Market line ATL +3 · total 46.5

Our read on this game

1 of the 26 rows we price on this game is strong tonight.

Strongest of themMichael Penix Jr.QB · ATL224+ passing yards-114consensus market price

Prices taken Wed 11 Nov, 17:56 UK. 5 rows on this game carry a doubtful man, marked on the row and with the reason behind its tap.

Every market we price

Called before kickoff: 1. Pending 1.

26 rows on 4 markets, best first: tap a market to open it, tap a player for his numbers, the price behind his and what our read rests on.

Oddsto

26 players across every market.

Receiving yards10
Olamide Zaccheaus WR · ATL 8+ receiving yards-116consensus market price

Olamide ZaccheausWR · ATLReceiving yards

DataPitch 69% · Market 54%

Against this price: Gap +15pp

Under 7.5: -113consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer. His other lines below are the same simulated read of his game, cut at the thresholds the market quotes.

Our simulated receiving yards
average 19.5, median 15
The line
7.5

His last 5, receiving yards

5v CIN2026 week 9
4v TB2026 week 8
0v CHI2026 week 6
0v BAL2026 week 5
0v NO2026 week 4

His other lines in this market

9+ receiving yardsDataPitch 67% · Market 52%-107book price at this line
10+ receiving yardsDataPitch 64% · Market 48%+108book price at this line
15+ receiving yardsDataPitch 51% · Market 35%+186book price at this line
20+ receiving yardsDataPitch 40% · Market 25%+295book price at this line
25+ receiving yardsDataPitch 31% · Market 18%+453book price at this line
30+ receiving yardsDataPitch 24% · Market 13%+670book price at this line
40+ receiving yardsDataPitch 13% · Market 7%+1360book price at this line
50+ receiving yardsDataPitch 7% · Market 4%+2400book price at this line
60+ receiving yardsDataPitch 4% · Market 3%+3700book price at this line
Kyle Pitts Sr. TE · ATL 38+ receiving yards-115consensus market price

Kyle Pitts Sr.TE · ATLReceiving yards

DataPitch 54% · Market 54%

Against this price: Gap +0pp

Under 37.5: -113consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer. His other lines below are the same simulated read of his game, cut at the thresholds the market quotes.

Our simulated receiving yards
average 46.9, median 41
The line
37.5

His last 5, receiving yards

23v CIN2026 week 9
6v TB2026 week 8
22v SF2026 week 7
60v CHI2026 week 6
42v BAL2026 week 5

His other lines in this market

10+ receiving yardsDataPitch 91% · Market 92%-1140book price at this line
15+ receiving yardsDataPitch 85% · Market 86%-592book price at this line
20+ receiving yardsDataPitch 79% · Market 78%-358book price at this line
25+ receiving yardsDataPitch 72% · Market 71%-242book price at this line
30+ receiving yardsDataPitch 66% · Market 63%-169book price at this line
37+ receiving yardsDataPitch 55% · Market 52%-110book price at this line
40+ receiving yardsDataPitch 52% · Market 48%+109book price at this line
50+ receiving yardsDataPitch 40% · Market 35%+188book price at this line
60+ receiving yardsDataPitch 30% · Market 24%+313book price at this line
70+ receiving yardsDataPitch 22% · Market 17%+504book price at this line
80+ receiving yardsDataPitch 15% · Market 11%+790book price at this line
90+ receiving yardsDataPitch 11% · Market 7%+1260book price at this line
100+ receiving yardsDataPitch 7% · Market 5%+1880book price at this line
110+ receiving yardsDataPitch 5% · Market 3%+2900book price at this line
120+ receiving yardsDataPitch 3% · Market 2%+4000book price at this line
More players (8)
Noah Gray TE · KC 12+ receiving yards-114DraftKings

Noah GrayTE · KCReceiving yards

DataPitch 52% · Market 53%

Against this price: Gap -1pp

Under 11.5: -111DraftKings

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer. His other lines below are the same simulated read of his game, cut at the thresholds the market quotes.

Our simulated receiving yards
average 17.9, median 13
The line
11.5

His last 5, receiving yards

11v NYJ2026 week 9
15v DEN2026 week 8
44v SEA2026 week 7
53v LAC2026 week 6
17v LV2026 week 4

His other lines in this market

10+ receiving yardsDataPitch 58% · Market 59%-143book price at this line
15+ receiving yardsDataPitch 45% · Market 47%+115book price at this line
20+ receiving yardsDataPitch 36% · Market 37%+174book price at this line
25+ receiving yardsDataPitch 28% · Market 28%+254book price at this line
30+ receiving yardsDataPitch 21% · Market 22%+366book price at this line
40+ receiving yardsDataPitch 13% · Market 13%+700book price at this line
50+ receiving yardsDataPitch 7% · Market 7%+1300book price at this line
60+ receiving yardsDataPitch 4% · Market 4%+2200book price at this line
70+ receiving yardsDataPitch 3% · Market 3%+3500book price at this line
Bijan Robinson RB · ATL 29+ receiving yards-109consensus market price

Bijan RobinsonRB · ATLReceiving yards

DataPitch 50% · Market 52%

Against this price: Gap -2pp

Under 28.5: -114consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer. His other lines below are the same simulated read of his game, cut at the thresholds the market quotes.

Our simulated receiving yards
average 34, median 29
The line
28.5

His last 5, receiving yards

47v CIN2026 week 9
0v TB2026 week 8
59v SF2026 week 7
-8v CHI2026 week 6
32v BAL2026 week 5

His other lines in this market

10+ receiving yardsDataPitch 83% · Market 89%-770book price at this line
15+ receiving yardsDataPitch 74% · Market 79%-382book price at this line
20+ receiving yardsDataPitch 65% · Market 69%-227book price at this line
25+ receiving yardsDataPitch 56% · Market 59%-146book price at this line
28+ receiving yardsDataPitch 51% · Market 54%-115book price at this line
30+ receiving yardsDataPitch 48% · Market 50%+102book price at this line
40+ receiving yardsDataPitch 34% · Market 33%+200book price at this line
50+ receiving yardsDataPitch 23% · Market 22%+361book price at this line
60+ receiving yardsDataPitch 16% · Market 14%+610book price at this line
70+ receiving yardsDataPitch 10% · Market 9%+1020book price at this line
80+ receiving yardsDataPitch 7% · Market 6%+1660book price at this line
90+ receiving yardsDataPitch 4% · Market 4%+2500book price at this line
100+ receiving yardsDataPitch 3% · Market 3%+3700book price at this line
Rashee Rice WR · KC 57+ receiving yards-116Bet365

Rashee RiceWR · KCReceiving yards

DataPitch 42% · Market 54%

Against this price: Gap -12pp

Under 56.5: -116Bet365

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer. His other lines below are the same simulated read of his game, cut at the thresholds the market quotes.

Our simulated receiving yards
average 55.2, median 49
The line
56.5

His last 5, receiving yards

49v NYJ2026 week 9
53v DEN2026 week 8
88v MIA2026 week 3
83v IND2026 week 2
19v DEN2026 week 1

His other lines in this market

15+ receiving yardsDataPitch 90% · Market 96%-2600book price at this line
20+ receiving yardsDataPitch 86% · Market 93%-1360book price at this line
25+ receiving yardsDataPitch 80% · Market 89%-840book price at this line
30+ receiving yardsDataPitch 74% · Market 85%-560book price at this line
40+ receiving yardsDataPitch 62% · Market 75%-292book price at this line
50+ receiving yardsDataPitch 49% · Market 63%-169book price at this line
59+ receiving yardsDataPitch 40% · Market 52%-110book price at this line
60+ receiving yardsDataPitch 39% · Market 51%-105book price at this line
70+ receiving yardsDataPitch 30% · Market 40%+150book price at this line
80+ receiving yardsDataPitch 22% · Market 31%+227book price at this line
90+ receiving yardsDataPitch 16% · Market 23%+344book price at this line
100+ receiving yardsDataPitch 12% · Market 17%+499book price at this line
110+ receiving yardsDataPitch 8% · Market 12%+740book price at this line
120+ receiving yardsDataPitch 6% · Market 8%+1100book price at this line
130+ receiving yardsDataPitch 4% · Market 6%+1600book price at this line
140+ receiving yardsDataPitch 3% · Market 4%+2300book price at this line
150+ receiving yardsDataPitch 2% · Market 3%+3100book price at this line
Travis Kelce TE · KC 49+ receiving yards-117consensus market price

Travis KelceTE · KCReceiving yards

DataPitch 37% · Market 54%

Against this price: Gap -17pp

Under 48.5: -113consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer. His other lines below are the same simulated read of his game, cut at the thresholds the market quotes.

Our simulated receiving yards
average 43.5, median 38
The line
48.5

His last 5, receiving yards

72v NYJ2026 week 9
67v DEN2026 week 8
44v SEA2026 week 7
53v LAC2026 week 6
15v LV2026 week 4

His other lines in this market

10+ receiving yardsDataPitch 89% · Market 96%-2700book price at this line
15+ receiving yardsDataPitch 82% · Market 93%-1280book price at this line
20+ receiving yardsDataPitch 75% · Market 88%-730book price at this line
25+ receiving yardsDataPitch 68% · Market 83%-473book price at this line
30+ receiving yardsDataPitch 61% · Market 76%-321book price at this line
40+ receiving yardsDataPitch 47% · Market 64%-175book price at this line
48+ receiving yardsDataPitch 38% · Market 53%-114book price at this line
50+ receiving yardsDataPitch 36% · Market 51%-103book price at this line
60+ receiving yardsDataPitch 26% · Market 39%+159book price at this line
70+ receiving yardsDataPitch 19% · Market 29%+250book price at this line
80+ receiving yardsDataPitch 13% · Market 21%+381book price at this line
90+ receiving yardsDataPitch 9% · Market 15%+584book price at this line
100+ receiving yardsDataPitch 6% · Market 10%+870book price at this line
110+ receiving yardsDataPitch 4% · Market 7%+1300book price at this line
120+ receiving yardsDataPitch 3% · Market 5%+1880book price at this line
130+ receiving yardsDataPitch 2% · Market 4%+2600book price at this line
140+ receiving yardsDataPitch 1% · Market 3%+3600book price at this line
Jahan Dotson WR · ATL 29+ receiving yards-112DraftKings

Jahan DotsonWR · ATLReceiving yards

DataPitch 36% · Market 53%

Against this price: Gap -17pp

Under 28.5: -112DraftKings

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer. His other lines below are the same simulated read of his game, cut at the thresholds the market quotes.

Our simulated receiving yards
average 25.1, median 18
The line
28.5

His last 5, receiving yards

16v CIN2026 week 9
95v TB2026 week 8
6v SF2026 week 7
87v CHI2026 week 6
54v BAL2026 week 5

His other lines in this market

10+ receiving yardsDataPitch 63% · Market 83%-496book price at this line
15+ receiving yardsDataPitch 58% · Market 76%-316book price at this line
20+ receiving yardsDataPitch 49% · Market 67%-202book price at this line
25+ receiving yardsDataPitch 41% · Market 59%-141book price at this line
30+ receiving yardsDataPitch 34% · Market 51%-105book price at this line
40+ receiving yardsDataPitch 23% · Market 38%+166book price at this line
50+ receiving yardsDataPitch 15% · Market 27%+274book price at this line
60+ receiving yardsDataPitch 10% · Market 18%+444book price at this line
70+ receiving yardsDataPitch 7% · Market 13%+690book price at this line
80+ receiving yardsDataPitch 4% · Market 9%+1060book price at this line
90+ receiving yardsDataPitch 3% · Market 6%+1620book price at this line
100+ receiving yardsDataPitch 2% · Market 4%+2400book price at this line
110+ receiving yardsDataPitch 1% · Market 3%+3400book price at this line
DoubtfulKenneth Walker III RB · KC 22+ receiving yards-116DraftKings

Kenneth Walker IIIRB · KCReceiving yards

Doubtful: his receptions line fell 3.5 to 2.5 between the open and the close, 29% at consensus: the market is pricing him down

DataPitch 35% · Market 54%

Against this price: Gap -19pp

Under 21.5: -110DraftKings

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer. His other lines below are the same simulated read of his game, cut at the thresholds the market quotes.

Our simulated receiving yards
average 19.8, median 14
The line
21.5

His last 5, receiving yards

41v NYJ2026 week 9
15v DEN2026 week 8
21v SEA2026 week 7
11v LAC2026 week 6
2v LV2026 week 4

His other lines in this market

10+ receiving yardsDataPitch 60% · Market 82%-460book price at this line
20+ receiving yardsDataPitch 39% · Market 59%-145book price at this line
30+ receiving yardsDataPitch 25% · Market 42%+140book price at this line
40+ receiving yardsDataPitch 15% · Market 29%+245book price at this line
50+ receiving yardsDataPitch 10% · Market 20%+395book price at this line
60+ receiving yardsDataPitch 6% · Market 14%+600book price at this line
70+ receiving yardsDataPitch 3% · Market 10%+900book price at this line
80+ receiving yardsDataPitch 2% · Market 8%+1200book price at this line
90+ receiving yardsDataPitch 1% · Market 6%+1700book price at this line
100+ receiving yardsDataPitch 1% · Market 4%+2200book price at this line
125+ receiving yardsDataPitch 0% · Market 3%+3000book price at this line
150+ receiving yardsDataPitch 0% · Market 3%+3500book price at this line
Drake London WR · ATL 73+ receiving yards-114consensus market price

Drake LondonWR · ATLReceiving yards

DataPitch 23% · Market 53%

Against this price: Gap -30pp

Under 72.5: -113consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer. His other lines below are the same simulated read of his game, cut at the thresholds the market quotes.

Our simulated receiving yards
average 49.3, median 44
The line
72.5

His last 5, receiving yards

68v CIN2026 week 9
8v TB2026 week 8
66v SF2026 week 7
62v CHI2026 week 6
118v BAL2026 week 5

His other lines in this market

25+ receiving yardsDataPitch 74% · Market 95%-1840book price at this line
30+ receiving yardsDataPitch 68% · Market 92%-1140book price at this line
40+ receiving yardsDataPitch 56% · Market 85%-557book price at this line
50+ receiving yardsDataPitch 44% · Market 76%-309book price at this line
60+ receiving yardsDataPitch 33% · Market 65%-187book price at this line
70+ receiving yardsDataPitch 25% · Market 54%-119book price at this line
71+ receiving yardsDataPitch 24% · Market 53%-114book price at this line
80+ receiving yardsDataPitch 18% · Market 44%+127book price at this line
90+ receiving yardsDataPitch 13% · Market 35%+189book price at this line
100+ receiving yardsDataPitch 9% · Market 26%+281book price at this line
110+ receiving yardsDataPitch 6% · Market 20%+408book price at this line
120+ receiving yardsDataPitch 4% · Market 15%+576book price at this line
130+ receiving yardsDataPitch 3% · Market 11%+830book price at this line
140+ receiving yardsDataPitch 2% · Market 8%+1180book price at this line
150+ receiving yardsDataPitch 1% · Market 6%+1640book price at this line
160+ receiving yardsDataPitch 1% · Market 4%+2200book price at this line
170+ receiving yardsDataPitch 0% · Market 3%+3000book price at this line
Charlie Woerner TE · ATL 3+ receiving yardsno fresh market price in the 2026-11-11 capture; an older price is not shown

Charlie WoernerTE · ATLReceiving yards

DataPitch 54%

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receiving yards
average 9.9, median 5
The line
2.5

His last 5, receiving yards

1v CIN2026 week 9
0v TB2026 week 8
9v SF2026 week 7
13v BAL2026 week 5
0v NO2026 week 4
Receiving yards at the thresholds this game's players share. Tap a price to put that level in your slip. Green marks a level our read rates; every other price is the market's alone.
Player30+40+50+60+
Olamide ZaccheausWR · ATL
Kyle Pitts Sr.TE · ATL
Noah GrayTE · KC
Bijan RobinsonRB · ATL
Rashee RiceWR · KC
Travis KelceTE · KC
Jahan DotsonWR · ATL
Kenneth Walker IIIDoubtfulRB · KC
Drake LondonWR · ATL

Columns are the levels most of this market's players are quoted at. One player's whole ladder sits behind his row in the player list.

Receptions9
Olamide Zaccheaus WR · ATL 2+ receptions+185Bet365

Olamide ZaccheausWR · ATLReceptions

DataPitch 59% · Market 35%

Against this price: Gap +24pp

Under 1.5: -250Bet365

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer. His other lines below are the same simulated read of his game, cut at the thresholds the market quotes.

Our simulated receptions
average 2.2, median 2
The line
1.5

His last 5, receptions

1v CIN2026 week 9
1v TB2026 week 8
0v CHI2026 week 6
0v BAL2026 week 5
0v NO2026 week 4

His other lines in this market

3+ receptionsDataPitch 37% · Market 29%+240book price at this line
4+ receptionsDataPitch 21% · Market 17%+500book price at this line
5+ receptionsDataPitch 11% · Market 9%+1000book price at this line
6+ receptionsDataPitch 5% · Market 4%+2200book price at this line
7+ receptionsDataPitch 2% · Market 2%+4800book price at this line
Kyle Pitts Sr. TE · ATL 4+ receptions-115DraftKings

Kyle Pitts Sr.TE · ATLReceptions

DataPitch 59% · Market 54%

Against this price: Gap +5pp

Under 3.5: -112DraftKings

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer. His other lines below are the same simulated read of his game, cut at the thresholds the market quotes.

Our simulated receptions
average 4.4, median 4
The line
3.5

His last 5, receptions

3v CIN2026 week 9
2v TB2026 week 8
5v SF2026 week 7
5v CHI2026 week 6
5v BAL2026 week 5

His other lines in this market

2+ receptionsDataPitch 89% · Market 92%-1200book price at this line
3+ receptionsDataPitch 75% · Market 74%-290book price at this line
5+ receptionsDataPitch 43% · Market 36%+180book price at this line
6+ receptionsDataPitch 30% · Market 22%+350book price at this line
7+ receptionsDataPitch 19% · Market 13%+675book price at this line
8+ receptionsDataPitch 11% · Market 8%+1200book price at this line
9+ receptionsDataPitch 7% · Market 5%+2100book price at this line
10+ receptionsDataPitch 4% · Market 3%+2800book price at this line
More players (7)
Noah Gray TE · KC 2+ receptions+105DraftKings

Noah GrayTE · KCReceptions

DataPitch 50% · Market 49%

Against this price: Gap +1pp

Under 1.5: -135DraftKings

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer. His other lines below are the same simulated read of his game, cut at the thresholds the market quotes.

Our simulated receptions
average 1.8, median 2
The line
1.5

His last 5, receptions

1v NYJ2026 week 9
2v DEN2026 week 8
3v SEA2026 week 7
3v LAC2026 week 6
2v LV2026 week 4

His other lines in this market

3+ receptionsDataPitch 28% · Market 31%+220book price at this line
4+ receptionsDataPitch 15% · Market 17%+500book price at this line
5+ receptionsDataPitch 7% · Market 8%+1200book price at this line
6+ receptionsDataPitch 4% · Market 3%+2900book price at this line
Rashee Rice WR · KC 6+ receptions+112DraftKings

Rashee RiceWR · KCReceptions

DataPitch 42% · Market 47%

Against this price: Gap -5pp

Under 5.5: -145DraftKings

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer. His other lines below are the same simulated read of his game, cut at the thresholds the market quotes.

Our simulated receptions
average 5.3, median 5
The line
5.5

His last 5, receptions

5v NYJ2026 week 9
7v DEN2026 week 8
7v MIA2026 week 3
4v IND2026 week 2
2v DEN2026 week 1

His other lines in this market

3+ receptionsDataPitch 84% · Market 92%-1180book price at this line
4+ receptionsDataPitch 72% · Market 80%-399book price at this line
5+ receptionsDataPitch 56% · Market 64%-178book price at this line
7+ receptionsDataPitch 29% · Market 32%+211book price at this line
8+ receptionsDataPitch 20% · Market 20%+390book price at this line
9+ receptionsDataPitch 13% · Market 13%+690book price at this line
10+ receptionsDataPitch 8% · Market 8%+1200book price at this line
11+ receptionsDataPitch 4% · Market 5%+2000book price at this line
12+ receptionsDataPitch 2% · Market 3%+2900book price at this line
Travis Kelce TE · KC 5+ receptions+115Bet365

Travis KelceTE · KCReceptions

DataPitch 38% · Market 47%

Against this price: Gap -9pp

Under 4.5: -147Bet365

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer. His other lines below are the same simulated read of his game, cut at the thresholds the market quotes.

Our simulated receptions
average 4.1, median 4
The line
4.5

His last 5, receptions

4v NYJ2026 week 9
5v DEN2026 week 8
4v SEA2026 week 7
4v LAC2026 week 6
2v LV2026 week 4

His other lines in this market

2+ receptionsDataPitch 86% · Market 96%-2400book price at this line
3+ receptionsDataPitch 70% · Market 84%-534book price at this line
4+ receptionsDataPitch 53% · Market 67%-202book price at this line
6+ receptionsDataPitch 26% · Market 32%+213book price at this line
7+ receptionsDataPitch 17% · Market 19%+415book price at this line
8+ receptionsDataPitch 10% · Market 11%+780book price at this line
9+ receptionsDataPitch 6% · Market 7%+1420book price at this line
10+ receptionsDataPitch 3% · Market 4%+2300book price at this line
Bijan Robinson RB · ATL 5+ receptions+130Bet365

Bijan RobinsonRB · ATLReceptions

DataPitch 32% · Market 44%

Against this price: Gap -12pp

Under 4.5: -167Bet365

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer. His other lines below are the same simulated read of his game, cut at the thresholds the market quotes.

Our simulated receptions
average 3.7, median 3
The line
4.5

His last 5, receptions

6v CIN2026 week 9
0v TB2026 week 8
5v SF2026 week 7
2v CHI2026 week 6
4v BAL2026 week 5

His other lines in this market

2+ receptionsDataPitch 82% · Market 94%-1450book price at this line
3+ receptionsDataPitch 65% · Market 81%-420book price at this line
4+ receptionsDataPitch 47% · Market 63%-168book price at this line
6+ receptionsDataPitch 20% · Market 29%+240book price at this line
7+ receptionsDataPitch 12% · Market 20%+410book price at this line
8+ receptionsDataPitch 7% · Market 13%+700book price at this line
9+ receptionsDataPitch 4% · Market 8%+1100book price at this line
10+ receptionsDataPitch 2% · Market 6%+1700book price at this line
Jahan Dotson WR · ATL 3+ receptions+115Bet365

Jahan DotsonWR · ATLReceptions

DataPitch 26% · Market 47%

Against this price: Gap -21pp

Under 2.5: -147Bet365

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer. His other lines below are the same simulated read of his game, cut at the thresholds the market quotes.

Our simulated receptions
average 1.7, median 1
The line
2.5

His last 5, receptions

2v CIN2026 week 9
2v TB2026 week 8
1v SF2026 week 7
3v CHI2026 week 6
2v BAL2026 week 5

His other lines in this market

2+ receptionsDataPitch 48% · Market 71%-244book price at this line
4+ receptionsDataPitch 12% · Market 29%+240book price at this line
5+ receptionsDataPitch 5% · Market 17%+500book price at this line
6+ receptionsDataPitch 2% · Market 9%+1050book price at this line
7+ receptionsDataPitch 1% · Market 4%+2300book price at this line
DoubtfulKenneth Walker III RB · KC 3+ receptions-164consensus market price

Kenneth Walker IIIRB · KCReceptions

Doubtful: his receptions line fell 3.5 to 2.5 between the open and the close, 29% at consensus: the market is pricing him down

DataPitch 33% · Market 62%

Against this price: Gap -29pp

Under 2.5: +113consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer. His other lines below are the same simulated read of his game, cut at the thresholds the market quotes.

Our simulated receptions
average 2.1, median 2
The line
2.5

His last 5, receptions

4v NYJ2026 week 9
4v DEN2026 week 8
4v SEA2026 week 7
2v LAC2026 week 6
1v LV2026 week 4

His other lines in this market

2+ receptionsDataPitch 55% · Market 88%-725book price at this line
4+ receptionsDataPitch 19% · Market 47%+115book price at this line
5+ receptionsDataPitch 10% · Market 29%+250book price at this line
6+ receptionsDataPitch 5% · Market 17%+500book price at this line
7+ receptionsDataPitch 2% · Market 10%+950book price at this line
8+ receptionsDataPitch 1% · Market 6%+1700book price at this line
9+ receptionsDataPitch 1% · Market 4%+2500book price at this line
10+ receptionsDataPitch 0% · Market 3%+3000book price at this line
Drake London WR · ATL 6+ receptions-123DraftKings

Drake LondonWR · ATLReceptions

DataPitch 18% · Market 55%

Against this price: Gap -37pp

Under 5.5: -104DraftKings

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer. His other lines below are the same simulated read of his game, cut at the thresholds the market quotes.

Our simulated receptions
average 3.5, median 3
The line
5.5

His last 5, receptions

5v CIN2026 week 9
1v TB2026 week 8
7v SF2026 week 7
4v CHI2026 week 6
7v BAL2026 week 5

His other lines in this market

3+ receptionsDataPitch 64% · Market 96%-2100book price at this line
4+ receptionsDataPitch 46% · Market 86%-620book price at this line
5+ receptionsDataPitch 30% · Market 72%-262book price at this line
7+ receptionsDataPitch 11% · Market 40%+149book price at this line
8+ receptionsDataPitch 6% · Market 27%+275book price at this line
9+ receptionsDataPitch 3% · Market 17%+491book price at this line
10+ receptionsDataPitch 2% · Market 11%+850book price at this line
11+ receptionsDataPitch 1% · Market 6%+1460book price at this line
12+ receptionsDataPitch 0% · Market 4%+2300book price at this line
Receptions at the thresholds this game's players share. Tap a price to put that level in your slip. Green marks a level our read rates; every other price is the market's alone.
Player3+4+5+6+
Olamide ZaccheausWR · ATL
Kyle Pitts Sr.TE · ATL
Noah GrayTE · KC
Rashee RiceWR · KC
Travis KelceTE · KC
Bijan RobinsonRB · ATL
Jahan DotsonWR · ATL
Kenneth Walker IIIDoubtfulRB · KC
Drake LondonWR · ATL

Columns are the levels most of this market's players are quoted at. One player's whole ladder sits behind his row in the player list.

Rushing yards5
Khalil Herbert RB · ATL 10+ rushing yards-114DraftKings

Khalil HerbertRB · ATLRushing yards

DataPitch 48% · Market 53%

Against this price: Gap -5pp

Under 9.5: -111DraftKings

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer. His other lines below are the same simulated read of his game, cut at the thresholds the market quotes.

Our simulated rushing yards
average 14.6, median 9
The line
9.5

His last 5, rushing yards

7v CIN2026 week 9
12v TB2026 week 8
9v SF2026 week 7
42v BUF2025 week 18
5v NE2025 week 17

His other lines in this market

5+ rushing yardsDataPitch 64% · Market 75%-300book price at this line
15+ rushing yardsDataPitch 36% · Market 39%+155book price at this line
20+ rushing yardsDataPitch 27% · Market 29%+250book price at this line
25+ rushing yardsDataPitch 20% · Market 21%+375book price at this line
30+ rushing yardsDataPitch 16% · Market 16%+525book price at this line
40+ rushing yardsDataPitch 9% · Market 9%+1000book price at this line
50+ rushing yardsDataPitch 5% · Market 6%+1700book price at this line
60+ rushing yardsDataPitch 3% · Market 4%+2500book price at this line
70+ rushing yardsDataPitch 2% · Market 3%+3000book price at this line
80+ rushing yardsDataPitch 1% · Market 3%+3300book price at this line
90+ rushing yardsDataPitch 1% · Market 3%+3500book price at this line
Bijan Robinson RB · ATL 85+ rushing yards-113consensus market price

Bijan RobinsonRB · ATLRushing yards

DataPitch 35% · Market 53%

Against this price: Gap -18pp

Under 84.5: -114consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer. His other lines below are the same simulated read of his game, cut at the thresholds the market quotes.

Our simulated rushing yards
average 73.9, median 68
The line
84.5

His last 5, rushing yards

100v CIN2026 week 9
76v TB2026 week 8
63v SF2026 week 7
61v CHI2026 week 6
86v BAL2026 week 5

His other lines in this market

40+ rushing yardsDataPitch 80% · Market 95%-1820book price at this line
50+ rushing yardsDataPitch 70% · Market 88%-760book price at this line
60+ rushing yardsDataPitch 59% · Market 80%-394book price at this line
70+ rushing yardsDataPitch 49% · Market 70%-235book price at this line
80+ rushing yardsDataPitch 39% · Market 60%-148book price at this line
86+ rushing yardsDataPitch 34% · Market 53%-114book price at this line
90+ rushing yardsDataPitch 30% · Market 49%+104book price at this line
100+ rushing yardsDataPitch 23% · Market 39%+154book price at this line
110+ rushing yardsDataPitch 18% · Market 31%+222book price at this line
120+ rushing yardsDataPitch 13% · Market 24%+318book price at this line
130+ rushing yardsDataPitch 9% · Market 18%+449book price at this line
140+ rushing yardsDataPitch 7% · Market 14%+630book price at this line
150+ rushing yardsDataPitch 5% · Market 10%+890book price at this line
160+ rushing yardsDataPitch 3% · Market 8%+1220book price at this line
170+ rushing yardsDataPitch 2% · Market 6%+1680book price at this line
180+ rushing yardsDataPitch 2% · Market 4%+2300book price at this line
190+ rushing yardsDataPitch 1% · Market 3%+3000book price at this line
200+ rushing yardsDataPitch 1% · Market 3%+3900book price at this line
More players (3)
Michael Penix Jr. QB · ATL 7+ rushing yards-119DraftKings

Michael Penix Jr.QB · ATLRushing yards

DataPitch 35% · Market 54%

Against this price: Gap -19pp

Under 6.5: -106DraftKings

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer. His other lines below are the same simulated read of his game, cut at the thresholds the market quotes.

Our simulated rushing yards
average 7.4, median 2
The line
6.5

His last 5, rushing yards

50v CIN2026 week 9
11v TB2026 week 8
-1v SF2026 week 7
1v CHI2026 week 6
8v BAL2026 week 5

His other lines in this market

5+ rushing yardsDataPitch 41% · Market 65%-185book price at this line
10+ rushing yardsDataPitch 27% · Market 44%+125book price at this line
15+ rushing yardsDataPitch 18% · Market 31%+225book price at this line
20+ rushing yardsDataPitch 12% · Market 22%+360book price at this line
25+ rushing yardsDataPitch 9% · Market 16%+525book price at this line
30+ rushing yardsDataPitch 7% · Market 11%+775book price at this line
40+ rushing yardsDataPitch 3% · Market 7%+1400book price at this line
50+ rushing yardsDataPitch 2% · Market 4%+2300book price at this line
60+ rushing yardsDataPitch 1% · Market 3%+3000book price at this line
70+ rushing yardsDataPitch 1% · Market 3%+3300book price at this line
80+ rushing yardsDataPitch 0% · Market 3%+3500book price at this line
DoubtfulPatrick Mahomes QB · KC 9+ rushing yards-111consensus market price

Patrick MahomesQB · KCRushing yards

Doubtful: Questionable: Elbow - Questionable for Week 10 at Atlanta

DataPitch 22% · Market 53%

Against this price: Gap -31pp

Under 8.5: -114consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer. His other lines below are the same simulated read of his game, cut at the thresholds the market quotes.

Our simulated rushing yards
average 6, median 0
The line
8.5

His last 5, rushing yards

8v NYJ2026 week 9
6v DEN2026 week 8
14v SEA2026 week 7
16v LAC2026 week 6
0v LV2026 week 4

His other lines in this market

5+ rushing yardsDataPitch 32% · Market 78%-350book price at this line
10+ rushing yardsDataPitch 21% · Market 57%-130book price at this line
15+ rushing yardsDataPitch 14% · Market 42%+140book price at this line
20+ rushing yardsDataPitch 10% · Market 30%+230book price at this line
25+ rushing yardsDataPitch 7% · Market 23%+345book price at this line
30+ rushing yardsDataPitch 5% · Market 17%+500book price at this line
40+ rushing yardsDataPitch 3% · Market 10%+950book price at this line
50+ rushing yardsDataPitch 2% · Market 6%+1600book price at this line
60+ rushing yardsDataPitch 1% · Market 4%+2400book price at this line
70+ rushing yardsDataPitch 1% · Market 3%+3000book price at this line
80+ rushing yardsDataPitch 0% · Market 3%+3300book price at this line
90+ rushing yardsDataPitch 0% · Market 3%+3500book price at this line
DoubtfulKenneth Walker III RB · KC 84+ rushing yards-114DraftKings

Kenneth Walker IIIRB · KCRushing yards

Doubtful: his receptions line fell 3.5 to 2.5 between the open and the close, 29% at consensus: the market is pricing him down

DataPitch 17% · Market 53%

Against this price: Gap -36pp

Under 83.5: -111DraftKings

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer. His other lines below are the same simulated read of his game, cut at the thresholds the market quotes.

Our simulated rushing yards
average 51.3, median 44
The line
83.5

His last 5, rushing yards

102v NYJ2026 week 9
69v DEN2026 week 8
36v SEA2026 week 7
128v LAC2026 week 6
177v LV2026 week 4

His other lines in this market

40+ rushing yardsDataPitch 56% · Market 94%-1500book price at this line
50+ rushing yardsDataPitch 44% · Market 87%-670book price at this line
60+ rushing yardsDataPitch 34% · Market 78%-358book price at this line
70+ rushing yardsDataPitch 26% · Market 68%-212book price at this line
80+ rushing yardsDataPitch 19% · Market 57%-134book price at this line
90+ rushing yardsDataPitch 14% · Market 47%+113book price at this line
100+ rushing yardsDataPitch 10% · Market 38%+167book price at this line
110+ rushing yardsDataPitch 8% · Market 29%+242book price at this line
120+ rushing yardsDataPitch 6% · Market 23%+345book price at this line
130+ rushing yardsDataPitch 4% · Market 17%+496book price at this line
140+ rushing yardsDataPitch 3% · Market 12%+720book price at this line
150+ rushing yardsDataPitch 2% · Market 9%+1040book price at this line
160+ rushing yardsDataPitch 1% · Market 6%+1480book price at this line
170+ rushing yardsDataPitch 1% · Market 5%+2000book price at this line
180+ rushing yardsDataPitch 1% · Market 3%+2800book price at this line
190+ rushing yardsDataPitch 0% · Market 3%+3700book price at this line
Rushing yards at the thresholds this game's players share. Tap a price to put that level in your slip. Green marks a level our read rates; every other price is the market's alone.
Player40+50+60+70+
Khalil HerbertRB · ATL
Bijan RobinsonRB · ATL
Michael Penix Jr.QB · ATL
Patrick MahomesDoubtfulQB · KC
Kenneth Walker IIIDoubtfulRB · KC

Columns are the levels most of this market's players are quoted at. One player's whole ladder sits behind his row in the player list.

Passing yards12
Michael Penix Jr. QB · ATL 224+ passing yards-114consensus market price

Michael Penix Jr.QB · ATLPassing yards

DataPitch 61% · Market 53%

Against this price: Gap +8pp

Under 223.5: -113consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer. His other lines below are the same simulated read of his game, cut at the thresholds the market quotes.

Our simulated passing yards
average 249.6, median 244
The line
223.5

His last 5, passing yards

162v CIN2026 week 9
125v TB2026 week 8
213v SF2026 week 7
198v CHI2026 week 6
223v BAL2026 week 5

His other lines in this market

150+ passing yardsDataPitch 92% · Market 88%-750book price at this line
160+ passing yardsDataPitch 89% · Market 84%-531book price at this line
170+ passing yardsDataPitch 86% · Market 80%-389book price at this line
180+ passing yardsDataPitch 82% · Market 74%-289book price at this line
190+ passing yardsDataPitch 78% · Market 68%-216book price at this line
200+ passing yardsDataPitch 73% · Market 62%-164book price at this line
210+ passing yardsDataPitch 68% · Market 56%-125book price at this line
214+ passing yardsDataPitch 66% · Market 53%-113book price at this line
220+ passing yardsDataPitch 63% · Market 49%+103book price at this line
230+ passing yardsDataPitch 58% · Market 43%+132book price at this line
240+ passing yardsDataPitch 52% · Market 37%+170book price at this line
250+ passing yardsDataPitch 47% · Market 32%+215book price at this line
260+ passing yardsDataPitch 42% · Market 27%+273book price at this line
270+ passing yardsDataPitch 37% · Market 23%+344book price at this line
280+ passing yardsDataPitch 33% · Market 19%+431book price at this line
290+ passing yardsDataPitch 28% · Market 16%+541book price at this line
300+ passing yardsDataPitch 24% · Market 13%+680book price at this line
310+ passing yardsDataPitch 21% · Market 11%+850book price at this line
320+ passing yardsDataPitch 18% · Market 9%+1040book price at this line
330+ passing yardsDataPitch 14% · Market 7%+1280book price at this line
340+ passing yardsDataPitch 12% · Market 6%+1600book price at this line
350+ passing yardsDataPitch 10% · Market 5%+1920book price at this line
360+ passing yardsDataPitch 8% · Market 4%+2200book price at this line
370+ passing yardsDataPitch 7% · Market 4%+2700book price at this line
DoubtfulPatrick Mahomes QB · KC 242+ passing yards-114consensus market price

Patrick MahomesQB · KCPassing yards

Doubtful: Questionable: Elbow - Questionable for Week 10 at Atlanta

DataPitch 74% · Market 53%

Against this price: Gap +21pp

Under 241.5: -114consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer. His other lines below are the same simulated read of his game, cut at the thresholds the market quotes.

Our simulated passing yards
average 295.7, median 290
The line
241.5

His last 5, passing yards

228v NYJ2026 week 9
309v DEN2026 week 8
163v SEA2026 week 7
272v LAC2026 week 6
210v LV2026 week 4

His other lines in this market

160+ passing yardsDataPitch 97% · Market 93%-1360book price at this line
170+ passing yardsDataPitch 96% · Market 90%-900book price at this line
180+ passing yardsDataPitch 94% · Market 86%-620book price at this line
190+ passing yardsDataPitch 92% · Market 82%-449book price at this line
200+ passing yardsDataPitch 89% · Market 77%-335book price at this line
210+ passing yardsDataPitch 86% · Market 72%-254book price at this line
220+ passing yardsDataPitch 83% · Market 66%-191book price at this line
230+ passing yardsDataPitch 79% · Market 60%-147book price at this line
240+ passing yardsDataPitch 75% · Market 54%-115book price at this line
241+ passing yardsDataPitch 75% · Market 53%-112book price at this line
250+ passing yardsDataPitch 71% · Market 47%+111book price at this line
260+ passing yardsDataPitch 66% · Market 42%+141book price at this line
270+ passing yardsDataPitch 61% · Market 36%+177book price at this line
280+ passing yardsDataPitch 55% · Market 31%+223book price at this line
290+ passing yardsDataPitch 50% · Market 26%+282book price at this line
300+ passing yardsDataPitch 45% · Market 22%+351book price at this line
310+ passing yardsDataPitch 41% · Market 19%+441book price at this line
320+ passing yardsDataPitch 36% · Market 15%+552book price at this line
330+ passing yardsDataPitch 32% · Market 13%+690book price at this line
340+ passing yardsDataPitch 28% · Market 11%+850book price at this line
350+ passing yardsDataPitch 24% · Market 9%+1040book price at this line
360+ passing yardsDataPitch 21% · Market 7%+1260book price at this line
370+ passing yardsDataPitch 18% · Market 6%+1580book price at this line
380+ passing yardsDataPitch 15% · Market 5%+1880book price at this line
390+ passing yardsDataPitch 12% · Market 4%+2300book price at this line
400+ passing yardsDataPitch 10% · Market 4%+2600book price at this line
410+ passing yardsDataPitch 8% · Market 3%+3000book price at this line
Passing yards at the thresholds this game's players share. Tap a price to put that level in your slip. Green marks a level our read rates; every other price is the market's alone.
Player220+230+240+250+
Michael Penix Jr.QB · ATL
Patrick MahomesDoubtfulQB · KC

Columns are the levels most of this market's players are quoted at. One player's whole ladder sits behind his row in the player list.

Every price is a captured market quote in American odds, labelled as such; our percentage and the gap to the market's sit behind the row's tap. A row's colour is our number against the price: green means we rate the row's own selection well above what the price says, red means the price rates it more than we do, white means the two are close. A row's last five counts his last five games in this market, most recent first, regular season and playoffs.

Around this game

Week 10 NFL player props, every gameAtlanta Falcons season simulation and futures pricesKansas City Chiefs season simulation and futures pricesWeek 9 resultsEvery NFL futures price on the Futures SimulatorHow the simulator works

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