We use analytics to see what works.
Our numbers from 20,000 simulated seasons, pulled toward the market, then a slider to build your own.
Win the Super Bowl+933DataPitch 11%Market 10% · Gap +1pp
Do not win the conference-506DataPitch 80%Market 83% · Gap -3pp
Win the division-201DataPitch 70%Market 67% · Gap +3pp
Make the playoffs-986DataPitch 93%Market 91% · Gap +2pp
Expected wins12.3Market 7.2EXCHANGE
Model 12.3, you12.3
Players
These move with the team prices above. Drag the win total below.
Passing yards leaderQB
Patrick MahomesKC+2269DataPitch 5%Market 4%Gap +0pp
Our own projection.
Rushing yards leaderRB
Kenneth Walker IIIKCn/a Market n/a
Our own projection.
Most Valuable PlayerQB
Patrick MahomesKC+870 Market +870
The market's own price. We only move it with the scenario.
Sim it yourself
Drag the win total, or force two or three results below. Everything above reprices off the same simulated seasons.
Force a result
Ranked by how much each game actually swings this team's playoff price. Pick up to 3.
vs Broncos leverage 95pp
vs Colts leverage 95pp
vs Dolphins leverage 95pp
vs Raiders leverage 95pp
vs Chargers leverage 95pp
vs Jets leverage 11ppvs Raiders leverage 10pp 
vs Cardinals leverage 9ppAdvanced: force a playoff path
Chiefs reaches a stage of the postseason, not just wins one game. Combines with the win total and forced games above. Pick one, or none.
