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New England Patriots at Chicago Bears

Week 7 · Thu Oct 22, 8:15 PM ET · Market line CHI -3 · total 50.5

Our read on this game

6 of the 21 rows we price on this game are strong tonight, and they split evenly between the two sides.

Strongest of themHunter HenryTE · NE34+ receiving yards-114consensus market price

Prices taken Wed 21 Oct, 23:43 UK. 3 rows on this game carry a doubtful man, marked on the row and with the reason behind its tap.

Every market we price

Called before kickoff: 6. Pending 6.

21 rows on 4 markets, best first: tap a market to open it, tap a player for his numbers, the price behind his and what our read rests on.

Oddsto

21 players across every market.

Receiving yards38
Hunter Henry TE · NE 34+ receiving yards-114consensus market price

Hunter HenryTE · NEReceiving yards

DataPitch 76% · Market 53%

Against this price: Gap +23pp

Under 33.5: -113consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receiving yards
average 64, median 58
The line
33.5

His last 5, receiving yards

48v NYJ2026 week 6
44v LV2026 week 5
62v BUF2026 week 4
5v JAX2026 week 3
40v PIT2026 week 2
Cole Kmet TE · CHI 9+ receiving yards-114consensus market price

Cole KmetTE · CHIReceiving yards

DataPitch 66% · Market 53%

Against this price: Gap +13pp

Under 8.5: -113consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receiving yards
average 19.2, median 15
The line
8.5

His last 5, receiving yards

3v ATL2026 week 6
8v GB2026 week 5
13v NYJ2026 week 4
0v PHI2026 week 3
0v MIN2026 week 2
More players (6)
Colston Loveland TE · CHI 42+ receiving yards-117consensus market price

Colston LovelandTE · CHIReceiving yards

DataPitch 66% · Market 54%

Against this price: Gap +12pp

Under 41.5: -105consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receiving yards
average 61, median 55
The line
41.5

His last 5, receiving yards

65v ATL2026 week 6
19v GB2026 week 5
57v NYJ2026 week 4
31v PHI2026 week 3
3v MIN2026 week 2
DoubtfulRhamondre Stevenson RB · NE 19+ receiving yards-113consensus market price

Rhamondre StevensonRB · NEReceiving yards

Doubtful: his rush attempts line fell 14.5 to 10.5 between the open and the close, 28% at consensus: the market is pricing him down

DataPitch 71% · Market 53%

Against this price: Gap +18pp

Under 18.5: -114consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receiving yards
average 38.7, median 33
The line
18.5

His last 5, receiving yards

0v NYJ2026 week 6
21v LV2026 week 5
27v BUF2026 week 4
16v JAX2026 week 3
3v PIT2026 week 2
A.J. Brown WR · NE 69+ receiving yards-114consensus market price

A.J. BrownWR · NEReceiving yards

DataPitch 40% · Market 53%

Against this price: Gap -13pp

Under 68.5: -115consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receiving yards
average 64.3, median 58
The line
68.5

His last 5, receiving yards

27v NYJ2026 week 6
26v SEA2026 week 1
25v SF2025 week 19
68v BUF2025 week 17
95v WAS2025 week 16
Rome Odunze WR · CHI 46+ receiving yards-113consensus market price

Rome OdunzeWR · CHIReceiving yards

DataPitch 34% · Market 53%

Against this price: Gap -19pp

Under 45.5: -115consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receiving yards
average 38.7, median 33
The line
45.5

His last 5, receiving yards

39v ATL2026 week 6
40v GB2026 week 5
94v NYJ2026 week 4
44v PHI2026 week 3
43v MIN2026 week 2
Luther Burden III WR · CHI 57+ receiving yards-114consensus market price

Luther Burden IIIWR · CHIReceiving yards

DataPitch 30% · Market 53%

Against this price: Gap -23pp

Under 56.5: -115consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receiving yards
average 45.4, median 39
The line
56.5

His last 5, receiving yards

95v ATL2026 week 6
47v GB2026 week 5
63v NYJ2026 week 4
61v PHI2026 week 3
32v MIN2026 week 2
D'Andre Swift RB · CHI 18+ receiving yards-115consensus market price

D'Andre SwiftRB · CHIReceiving yards

DataPitch 17% · Market 54%

Against this price: Gap -37pp

Under 17.5: -112consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receiving yards
average 8.7, median 5
The line
17.5

His last 5, receiving yards

26v ATL2026 week 6
30v GB2026 week 5
16v NYJ2026 week 4
4v PHI2026 week 3
54v MIN2026 week 2
Receptions28
Hunter Henry TE · NE 4+ receptions+116consensus market price

Hunter HenryTE · NEReceptions

DataPitch 63% · Market 46%

Against this price: Gap +17pp

Under 3.5: -154consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receptions
average 4.6, median 4
The line
3.5

His last 5, receptions

4v NYJ2026 week 6
3v LV2026 week 5
5v BUF2026 week 4
1v JAX2026 week 3
3v PIT2026 week 2
Cole Kmet TE · CHI 2+ receptions+165consensus market price

Cole KmetTE · CHIReceptions

DataPitch 43% · Market 38%

Against this price: Gap +5pp

Under 1.5: -222consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receptions
average 1.6, median 1
The line
1.5

His last 5, receptions

2v ATL2026 week 6
1v GB2026 week 5
2v NYJ2026 week 4
0v PHI2026 week 3
0v MIN2026 week 2
More players (6)
DoubtfulRhamondre Stevenson RB · NE 3+ receptions-120consensus market price

Rhamondre StevensonRB · NEReceptions

Doubtful: his rush attempts line fell 14.5 to 10.5 between the open and the close, 28% at consensus: the market is pricing him down

DataPitch 68% · Market 55%

Against this price: Gap +13pp

Under 2.5: -110consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receptions
average 4, median 4
The line
2.5

His last 5, receptions

0v NYJ2026 week 6
3v LV2026 week 5
3v BUF2026 week 4
3v JAX2026 week 3
1v PIT2026 week 2
Colston Loveland TE · CHI 4+ receptions-165consensus market price

Colston LovelandTE · CHIReceptions

DataPitch 66% · Market 62%

Against this price: Gap +4pp

Under 3.5: +128consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receptions
average 4.7, median 4
The line
3.5

His last 5, receptions

6v ATL2026 week 6
2v GB2026 week 5
6v NYJ2026 week 4
4v PHI2026 week 3
1v MIN2026 week 2
A.J. Brown WR · NE 5+ receptions-160consensus market price

A.J. BrownWR · NEReceptions

DataPitch 40% · Market 62%

Against this price: Gap -22pp

Under 4.5: +124consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receptions
average 4.2, median 4
The line
4.5

His last 5, receptions

3v NYJ2026 week 6
3v SEA2026 week 1
3v SF2025 week 19
5v BUF2025 week 17
9v WAS2025 week 16
Rome Odunze WR · CHI 4+ receptions+120consensus market price

Rome OdunzeWR · CHIReceptions

DataPitch 23% · Market 46%

Against this price: Gap -23pp

Under 3.5: -155consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receptions
average 2.4, median 2
The line
3.5

His last 5, receptions

3v ATL2026 week 6
3v GB2026 week 5
6v NYJ2026 week 4
3v PHI2026 week 3
3v MIN2026 week 2
Luther Burden III WR · CHI 5+ receptions-132consensus market price

Luther Burden IIIWR · CHIReceptions

DataPitch 28% · Market 57%

Against this price: Gap -29pp

Under 4.5: +102consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receptions
average 3.5, median 3
The line
4.5

His last 5, receptions

8v ATL2026 week 6
4v GB2026 week 5
4v NYJ2026 week 4
7v PHI2026 week 3
3v MIN2026 week 2
D'Andre Swift RB · CHI 3+ receptions-115consensus market price

D'Andre SwiftRB · CHIReceptions

DataPitch 12% · Market 54%

Against this price: Gap -42pp

Under 2.5: -112consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receptions
average 1.1, median 1
The line
2.5

His last 5, receptions

4v ATL2026 week 6
4v GB2026 week 5
2v NYJ2026 week 4
2v PHI2026 week 3
5v MIN2026 week 2
Rushing yards4
D'Andre Swift RB · CHI 61+ rushing yards-114consensus market price

D'Andre SwiftRB · CHIRushing yards

DataPitch 44% · Market 53%

Against this price: Gap -9pp

Under 60.5: -113consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated rushing yards
average 61, median 55
The line
60.5

His last 5, rushing yards

44v ATL2026 week 6
43v GB2026 week 5
58v NYJ2026 week 4
84v PHI2026 week 3
45v MIN2026 week 2
DoubtfulRhamondre Stevenson RB · NE 43+ rushing yards-115consensus market price

Rhamondre StevensonRB · NERushing yards

Doubtful: his rush attempts line fell 14.5 to 10.5 between the open and the close, 28% at consensus: the market is pricing him down

DataPitch 39% · Market 54%

Against this price: Gap -15pp

Under 42.5: -112consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated rushing yards
average 41.1, median 34
The line
42.5

His last 5, rushing yards

36v NYJ2026 week 6
64v LV2026 week 5
47v BUF2026 week 4
22v JAX2026 week 3
43v PIT2026 week 2
More players (2)
Drake Maye QB · NE 30+ rushing yards-112consensus market price

Drake MayeQB · NERushing yards

DataPitch 16% · Market 53%

Against this price: Gap -37pp

Under 29.5: -116consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated rushing yards
average 15.1, median 9
The line
29.5

His last 5, rushing yards

24v NYJ2026 week 6
25v LV2026 week 5
54v BUF2026 week 4
18v JAX2026 week 3
17v PIT2026 week 2
Roschon Johnson RB · CHI 25+ rushing yards-245consensus market price

Roschon JohnsonRB · CHIRushing yards

DataPitch 24% · Market 71%

Against this price: Gap -47pp

Under 24.5: -120consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated rushing yards
average 16.1, median 8
The line
24.5

His last 5, rushing yards

51v ATL2026 week 6
6v GB2026 week 5
16v NYJ2026 week 4
0v CAR2026 week 1
0v MIN2025 week 11
Passing yards11
Drake Maye QB · NE 249+ passing yards-114consensus market price

Drake MayeQB · NEPassing yards

DataPitch 74% · Market 53%

Against this price: Gap +21pp

Under 248.5: -114consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated passing yards
average 309, median 302
The line
248.5

His last 5, passing yards

235v NYJ2026 week 6
371v LV2026 week 5
264v BUF2026 week 4
188v JAX2026 week 3
191v PIT2026 week 2

Every price is a captured market quote in American odds, labelled as such; our percentage and the gap to the market's sit behind the row's tap. A row's colour is our number against the price: green means we like him to go over well beyond what the price says, red means the price likes him more than we do, white means the two are close. A row's last five counts his last five games in this market, most recent first, regular season and playoffs.

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