We use analytics to see what works.
Our numbers from 20,000 simulated seasons, pulled toward the market, then a slider to build your own.
Win the Super Bowl+2484DataPitch 4%Market 4% · Gap +0pp
Do not win the conference-952DataPitch 90%Market 90% · Gap +0pp
Do not win the division-239DataPitch 70%Market 71% · Gap -1pp
Make the playoffs-343DataPitch 77%Market 77% · Gap +0pp
Expected wins10.4Market 6.7EXCHANGE
Season series
Who wins the two meetings this year. Both games are in every simulated season.
vs Miami DolphinsGap +4pp-176EXCHANGEModel 10.4, you10.4
Players
These move with the team prices above. Drag the win total below.
Passing yards leaderQB
Drake MayeNE+1104DataPitch 4%Market 8%Gap -5pp
Our own projection.
Rushing yards leaderRB
TreVeyon HendersonNEn/a Market n/a
Our own projection.
Receiving yards leaderWR
A.J. BrownNE+2978 DataPitch 1%Market 3%Gap -2pp
Our own projection.
Most Valuable PlayerQB
Drake MayeNE+2696 Market +2696
The market's own price. We only move it with the scenario.
Sim it yourself
Drag the win total, or force two or three results below. Everything above reprices off the same simulated seasons.
Force a result
Ranked by how much each game actually swings this team's playoff price. Pick up to 3.
vs Seahawks leverage 78pp
vs Steelers leverage 78pp
vs Jaguars leverage 78pp
vs Bills leverage 78pp
vs Raiders leverage 78pp
vs Jets leverage 78ppvs Dolphins leverage 26pp vs Dolphins leverage 25pp Advanced: force a playoff path
Patriots reaches a stage of the postseason, not just wins one game. Combines with the win total and forced games above. Pick one, or none.
