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Cincinnati Bengals at Baltimore Ravens

Week 7 · Sun Oct 25, 1:00 PM ET · Market line BAL -2.5 · total 51.5

Our read on this game

3 of the 18 rows we price on this game are strong tonight, and 2 of them are Cincinnati Bengals players.

Strongest of themDerrick HenryRB · BAL86+ rushing yards-115consensus market price

Prices taken Wed 21 Oct, 23:43 UK.

Every market we price

Called before kickoff: 3. Pending 3.

18 rows on 4 markets, best first: tap a market to open it, tap a player for his numbers, the price behind his and what our read rests on.

Oddsto

18 players across every market.

Receiving yards16
Chase Brown RB · CIN 20+ receiving yards-116consensus market price

Chase BrownRB · CINReceiving yards

DataPitch 64% · Market 54%

Against this price: Gap +10pp

Under 19.5: -112consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receiving yards
average 30.3, median 26
The line
19.5

His last 5, receiving yards

21v MIA2026 week 5
71v JAX2026 week 4
8v PIT2026 week 3
2v HOU2026 week 2
22v TB2026 week 1
Ja'Marr Chase WR · CIN 80+ receiving yards-114consensus market price

Ja'Marr ChaseWR · CINReceiving yards

DataPitch 55% · Market 53%

Against this price: Gap +2pp

Under 79.5: -109consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receiving yards
average 90.6, median 85
The line
79.5

His last 5, receiving yards

77v MIA2026 week 5
27v JAX2026 week 4
98v PIT2026 week 3
75v HOU2026 week 2
12v TB2026 week 1
More players (4)
Zay Flowers WR · BAL 70+ receiving yards-105consensus market price

Zay FlowersWR · BALReceiving yards

DataPitch 42% · Market 51%

Against this price: Gap -9pp

Under 69.5: +100consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receiving yards
average 67.9, median 61
The line
69.5

His last 5, receiving yards

66v CLE2026 week 6
53v ATL2026 week 5
118v TEN2026 week 4
84v DAL2026 week 3
150v IND2026 week 1
Tee Higgins WR · CIN 66+ receiving yards-115consensus market price

Tee HigginsWR · CINReceiving yards

DataPitch 36% · Market 54%

Against this price: Gap -18pp

Under 65.5: -114consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receiving yards
average 57.9, median 52
The line
65.5

His last 5, receiving yards

22v MIA2026 week 5
157v JAX2026 week 4
90v PIT2026 week 3
95v HOU2026 week 2
59v TB2026 week 1
Drew Sample TE · CIN 5+ receiving yardsno fresh market price in the 2026-10-21 capture; an older price is not shown

Drew SampleTE · CINReceiving yards

DataPitch 68%

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receiving yards
average 16.3, median 11
The line
4.5

His last 5, receiving yards

5v MIA2026 week 5
0v PIT2026 week 3
19v TB2026 week 1
17v CLE2025 week 18
8v ARI2025 week 17
Derrick Henry RB · BAL 7+ receiving yardsno fresh market price in the 2026-10-21 capture; an older price is not shown

Derrick HenryRB · BALReceiving yards

DataPitch 53%

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receiving yards
average 12.1, median 7
The line
6.5

His last 5, receiving yards

2v CLE2026 week 6
18v ATL2026 week 5
6v TEN2026 week 4
0v DAL2026 week 3
19v NO2026 week 2
Receptions6
Chase Brown RB · CIN 4+ receptions-105consensus market price

Chase BrownRB · CINReceptions

DataPitch 52% · Market 51%

Against this price: Gap +1pp

Under 3.5: -125consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receptions
average 4, median 4
The line
3.5

His last 5, receptions

3v MIA2026 week 5
11v JAX2026 week 4
2v PIT2026 week 3
3v HOU2026 week 2
5v TB2026 week 1
Ja'Marr Chase WR · CIN 8+ receptions+110consensus market price

Ja'Marr ChaseWR · CINReceptions

DataPitch 41% · Market 48%

Against this price: Gap -7pp

Under 7.5: -141consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receptions
average 7.1, median 7
The line
7.5

His last 5, receptions

6v MIA2026 week 5
3v JAX2026 week 4
9v PIT2026 week 3
7v HOU2026 week 2
2v TB2026 week 1
More players (4)
Derrick Henry RB · BAL 2+ receptions+132consensus market price

Derrick HenryRB · BALReceptions

DataPitch 36% · Market 43%

Against this price: Gap -7pp

Under 1.5: +100consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receptions
average 1.3, median 1
The line
1.5

His last 5, receptions

1v CLE2026 week 6
1v ATL2026 week 5
2v TEN2026 week 4
1v DAL2026 week 3
3v NO2026 week 2
Tee Higgins WR · CIN 5+ receptions-135consensus market price

Tee HigginsWR · CINReceptions

DataPitch 38% · Market 57%

Against this price: Gap -19pp

Under 4.5: +102consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receptions
average 4.1, median 4
The line
4.5

His last 5, receptions

2v MIA2026 week 5
11v JAX2026 week 4
6v PIT2026 week 3
5v HOU2026 week 2
3v TB2026 week 1
Drew Sample TE · CIN 1+ receptionsno fresh market price in the 2026-10-21 capture; an older price is not shown

Drew SampleTE · CINReceptions

DataPitch 75%

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receptions
average 1.7, median 1
The line
0.5

His last 5, receptions

1v MIA2026 week 5
1v PIT2026 week 3
3v TB2026 week 1
3v CLE2025 week 18
1v ARI2025 week 17
Zay Flowers WR · BAL 6+ receptionsno fresh market price in the 2026-10-21 capture; an older price is not shown

Zay FlowersWR · BALReceptions

DataPitch 32%

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receptions
average 4.5, median 4
The line
5.5

His last 5, receptions

6v CLE2026 week 6
8v ATL2026 week 5
8v TEN2026 week 4
5v DAL2026 week 3
5v IND2026 week 1
Rushing yards24
Derrick Henry RB · BAL 86+ rushing yards-115consensus market price

Derrick HenryRB · BALRushing yards

DataPitch 64% · Market 54%

Against this price: Gap +10pp

Under 85.5: -114consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated rushing yards
average 109.8, median 104
The line
85.5

His last 5, rushing yards

58v CLE2026 week 6
102v ATL2026 week 5
73v TEN2026 week 4
89v DAL2026 week 3
68v NO2026 week 2
Chase Brown RB · CIN 51+ rushing yards-115consensus market price

Chase BrownRB · CINRushing yards

DataPitch 61% · Market 54%

Against this price: Gap +7pp

Under 50.5: -114consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated rushing yards
average 66.2, median 60
The line
50.5

His last 5, rushing yards

39v MIA2026 week 5
10v JAX2026 week 4
61v PIT2026 week 3
80v HOU2026 week 2
56v TB2026 week 1
More players (2)
Samaje Perine RB · CIN 21+ rushing yards-114consensus market price

Samaje PerineRB · CINRushing yards

DataPitch 48% · Market 53%

Against this price: Gap -5pp

Under 20.5: -114consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated rushing yards
average 26.2, median 20
The line
20.5

His last 5, rushing yards

68v MIA2026 week 5
7v JAX2026 week 4
9v PIT2026 week 3
6v HOU2026 week 2
20v TB2026 week 1
Joe Burrow QB · CIN 7+ rushing yards-114consensus market price

Joe BurrowQB · CINRushing yards

DataPitch 43% · Market 53%

Against this price: Gap -10pp

Under 6.5: -114consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated rushing yards
average 10.4, median 4
The line
6.5

His last 5, rushing yards

10v MIA2026 week 5
6v JAX2026 week 4
13v PIT2026 week 3
-1v HOU2026 week 2
20v TB2026 week 1
Passing yards2
Joe Burrow QB · CIN 261+ passing yards-113consensus market price

Joe BurrowQB · CINPassing yards

DataPitch 33% · Market 53%

Against this price: Gap -20pp

Under 260.5: -113consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated passing yards
average 235, median 229
The line
260.5

His last 5, passing yards

190v MIA2026 week 5
414v JAX2026 week 4
269v PIT2026 week 3
182v HOU2026 week 2
245v TB2026 week 1
Lamar Jackson QB · BAL 230+ passing yardsno fresh market price in the 2026-10-21 capture; an older price is not shown

Lamar JacksonQB · BALPassing yards

DataPitch 48%

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated passing yards
average 231.2, median 225
The line
229.5

His last 5, passing yards

209v TEN2026 week 4
186v DAL2026 week 3
204v NO2026 week 2
304v IND2026 week 1
222v PIT2025 week 18

Every price is a captured market quote in American odds, labelled as such; our percentage and the gap to the market's sit behind the row's tap. A row's colour is our number against the price: green means we like him to go over well beyond what the price says, red means the price likes him more than we do, white means the two are close. A row's last five counts his last five games in this market, most recent first, regular season and playoffs.

Around this game

Week 7 NFL player props, every gameBaltimore Ravens season simulation and futures pricesCincinnati Bengals season simulation and futures pricesWeek 6 resultsEvery NFL futures price on the Futures SimulatorHow the simulator works

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