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Pittsburgh Steelers at New Orleans Saints

Week 7 · Sun Oct 25, 9:30 AM ET · Market line NO +3.5 · total 44.5

Our read on this game

3 of the 26 rows we price on this game are strong tonight, and all of them are Pittsburgh Steelers players.

Strongest of themRico DowdleRB · PIT10+ receiving yards-118consensus market price

Prices taken Wed 21 Oct, 23:43 UK. 3 rows on this game carry a doubtful man, marked on the row and with the reason behind its tap.

Every market we price

Called before kickoff: 3. Pending 3.

26 rows on 4 markets, best first: tap a market to open it, tap a player for his numbers, the price behind his and what our read rests on.

Oddsto

26 players across every market.

Receiving yards29
Rico Dowdle RB · PIT 10+ receiving yards-118consensus market price

Rico DowdleRB · PITReceiving yards

DataPitch 63% · Market 54%

Against this price: Gap +9pp

Under 9.5: -112consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receiving yards
average 19.7, median 15
The line
9.5

His last 5, receiving yards

9v TB2026 week 6
22v NE2026 week 2
6v ATL2026 week 1
6v LA2025 week 19
20v TB2025 week 18
DK Metcalf WR · PIT 59+ receiving yards-113consensus market price

DK MetcalfWR · PITReceiving yards

DataPitch 58% · Market 53%

Against this price: Gap +5pp

Under 58.5: -115consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receiving yards
average 72.7, median 67
The line
58.5

His last 5, receiving yards

93v TB2026 week 6
12v IND2026 week 5
115v CLE2026 week 4
31v CIN2026 week 3
27v NE2026 week 2
More players (7)
DoubtfulAlvin Kamara RB · NO 13+ receiving yards-114consensus market price

Alvin KamaraRB · NOReceiving yards

Doubtful: his receptions line fell 3.5 to 2.5 between the open and the close, 29% at consensus: the market is pricing him down

DataPitch 63% · Market 53%

Against this price: Gap +10pp

Under 12.5: -115consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receiving yards
average 22.6, median 18
The line
12.5

His last 5, receiving yards

35v NYG2026 week 6
-6v MIN2026 week 5
35v ATL2026 week 4
5v LV2026 week 3
7v BAL2026 week 2
Juwan Johnson TE · NO 33+ receiving yards-114consensus market price

Juwan JohnsonTE · NOReceiving yards

DataPitch 56% · Market 53%

Against this price: Gap +3pp

Under 32.5: -114consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receiving yards
average 42.5, median 37
The line
32.5

His last 5, receiving yards

0v NYG2026 week 6
16v MIN2026 week 5
59v ATL2026 week 4
53v LV2026 week 3
66v BAL2026 week 2
Darnell Washington TE · PIT 25+ receiving yards-114consensus market price

Darnell WashingtonTE · PITReceiving yards

DataPitch 45% · Market 53%

Against this price: Gap -8pp

Under 24.5: -114consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receiving yards
average 27.2, median 22
The line
24.5

His last 5, receiving yards

25v TB2026 week 6
12v IND2026 week 5
27v CLE2026 week 4
67v CIN2026 week 3
7v NE2026 week 2
Devaughn Vele WR · NO 42+ receiving yards-114consensus market price

Devaughn VeleWR · NOReceiving yards

DataPitch 45% · Market 53%

Against this price: Gap -8pp

Under 41.5: -114consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receiving yards
average 42.4, median 37
The line
41.5

His last 5, receiving yards

42v NYG2026 week 6
26v MIN2026 week 5
54v ATL2026 week 4
39v LV2026 week 3
64v BAL2026 week 2
Chris Olave WR · NO 76+ receiving yards-114consensus market price

Chris OlaveWR · NOReceiving yards

DataPitch 44% · Market 53%

Against this price: Gap -9pp

Under 75.5: -114consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receiving yards
average 75, median 70.5
The line
75.5

His last 5, receiving yards

43v NYG2026 week 6
46v MIN2026 week 5
116v ATL2026 week 4
107v LV2026 week 3
86v BAL2026 week 2
Pat Freiermuth TE · PIT 31+ receiving yards-112consensus market price

Pat FreiermuthTE · PITReceiving yards

DataPitch 42% · Market 53%

Against this price: Gap -11pp

Under 30.5: -115consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receiving yards
average 31, median 25
The line
30.5

His last 5, receiving yards

11v TB2026 week 6
44v IND2026 week 5
17v CLE2026 week 4
30v CIN2026 week 3
32v NE2026 week 2
Jaylen Warren RB · PIT 26+ receiving yards-115consensus market price

Jaylen WarrenRB · PITReceiving yards

DataPitch 24% · Market 54%

Against this price: Gap -30pp

Under 25.5: -113consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receiving yards
average 16.8, median 12
The line
25.5

His last 5, receiving yards

28v TB2026 week 6
87v IND2026 week 5
33v CLE2026 week 4
49v CIN2026 week 3
34v NE2026 week 2
Receptions9
Rico Dowdle RB · PIT 2+ receptions-146consensus market price

Rico DowdleRB · PITReceptions

DataPitch 60% · Market 59%

Against this price: Gap +1pp

Under 1.5: +110consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receptions
average 2.3, median 2
The line
1.5

His last 5, receptions

3v TB2026 week 6
2v NE2026 week 2
2v ATL2026 week 1
1v LA2025 week 19
2v TB2025 week 18
Juwan Johnson TE · NO 4+ receptions-122consensus market price

Juwan JohnsonTE · NOReceptions

DataPitch 52% · Market 55%

Against this price: Gap -3pp

Under 3.5: -104consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receptions
average 3.9, median 4
The line
3.5

His last 5, receptions

0v NYG2026 week 6
4v MIN2026 week 5
6v ATL2026 week 4
8v LV2026 week 3
4v BAL2026 week 2
More players (7)
DK Metcalf WR · PIT 5+ receptions-140consensus market price

DK MetcalfWR · PITReceptions

DataPitch 53% · Market 58%

Against this price: Gap -5pp

Under 4.5: +107consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receptions
average 5, median 5
The line
4.5

His last 5, receptions

11v TB2026 week 6
3v IND2026 week 5
5v CLE2026 week 4
3v CIN2026 week 3
4v NE2026 week 2
Darnell Washington TE · PIT 3+ receptions+100consensus market price

Darnell WashingtonTE · PITReceptions

DataPitch 45% · Market 50%

Against this price: Gap -5pp

Under 2.5: -131consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receptions
average 2.5, median 2
The line
2.5

His last 5, receptions

4v TB2026 week 6
2v IND2026 week 5
3v CLE2026 week 4
3v CIN2026 week 3
1v NE2026 week 2
DoubtfulAlvin Kamara RB · NO 3+ receptions-128consensus market price

Alvin KamaraRB · NOReceptions

Doubtful: his receptions line fell 3.5 to 2.5 between the open and the close, 29% at consensus: the market is pricing him down

DataPitch 50% · Market 56%

Against this price: Gap -6pp

Under 2.5: -101consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receptions
average 2.9, median 3
The line
2.5

His last 5, receptions

2v NYG2026 week 6
2v MIN2026 week 5
5v ATL2026 week 4
1v LV2026 week 3
5v BAL2026 week 2
Chris Olave WR · NO 6+ receptions-151consensus market price

Chris OlaveWR · NOReceptions

DataPitch 53% · Market 60%

Against this price: Gap -7pp

Under 5.5: +115consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receptions
average 6, median 6
The line
5.5

His last 5, receptions

4v NYG2026 week 6
4v MIN2026 week 5
8v ATL2026 week 4
9v LV2026 week 3
8v BAL2026 week 2
Pat Freiermuth TE · PIT 4+ receptions+133consensus market price

Pat FreiermuthTE · PITReceptions

DataPitch 34% · Market 43%

Against this price: Gap -9pp

Under 3.5: -175consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receptions
average 2.9, median 3
The line
3.5

His last 5, receptions

2v TB2026 week 6
5v IND2026 week 5
3v CLE2026 week 4
2v CIN2026 week 3
4v NE2026 week 2
Devaughn Vele WR · NO 4+ receptions-156consensus market price

Devaughn VeleWR · NOReceptions

DataPitch 40% · Market 61%

Against this price: Gap -21pp

Under 3.5: +120consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receptions
average 3.3, median 3
The line
3.5

His last 5, receptions

3v NYG2026 week 6
4v MIN2026 week 5
6v ATL2026 week 4
3v LV2026 week 3
5v BAL2026 week 2
Jaylen Warren RB · PIT 4+ receptions+117consensus market price

Jaylen WarrenRB · PITReceptions

DataPitch 19% · Market 46%

Against this price: Gap -27pp

Under 3.5: -155consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receptions
average 2.1, median 2
The line
3.5

His last 5, receptions

2v TB2026 week 6
6v IND2026 week 5
3v CLE2026 week 4
3v CIN2026 week 3
2v NE2026 week 2
Rushing yards16
Rico Dowdle RB · PIT 33+ rushing yards-114consensus market price

Rico DowdleRB · PITRushing yards

DataPitch 58% · Market 53%

Against this price: Gap +5pp

Under 32.5: -116consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated rushing yards
average 44.3, median 38
The line
32.5

His last 5, rushing yards

40v TB2026 week 6
22v NE2026 week 2
15v ATL2026 week 1
9v LA2025 week 19
10v TB2025 week 18
DoubtfulAlvin Kamara RB · NO 17+ rushing yards-114consensus market price

Alvin KamaraRB · NORushing yards

Doubtful: his receptions line fell 3.5 to 2.5 between the open and the close, 29% at consensus: the market is pricing him down

DataPitch 69% · Market 53%

Against this price: Gap +16pp

Under 16.5: -113consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated rushing yards
average 33.4, median 27
The line
16.5

His last 5, rushing yards

34v NYG2026 week 6
12v MIN2026 week 5
23v ATL2026 week 4
36v LV2026 week 3
15v BAL2026 week 2
More players (4)
Jaylen Warren RB · PIT 64+ rushing yards-114consensus market price

Jaylen WarrenRB · PITRushing yards

DataPitch 45% · Market 53%

Against this price: Gap -8pp

Under 63.5: -115consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated rushing yards
average 65, median 59
The line
63.5

His last 5, rushing yards

50v TB2026 week 6
101v IND2026 week 5
93v CLE2026 week 4
127v CIN2026 week 3
43v NE2026 week 2
Aaron Rodgers QB · PIT 1+ rushing yards-113consensus market price

Aaron RodgersQB · PITRushing yards

DataPitch 39% · Market 53%

Against this price: Gap -14pp

Under 0.5: -115consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated rushing yards
average 5.4, median 0
The line
0.5

His last 5, rushing yards

-1v TB2026 week 6
6v IND2026 week 5
0v CLE2026 week 4
10v CIN2026 week 3
5v NE2026 week 2
Kendre Miller RB · NO 40+ rushing yards-115consensus market price

Kendre MillerRB · NORushing yards

DataPitch 34% · Market 54%

Against this price: Gap -20pp

Under 39.5: -107consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated rushing yards
average 34, median 28
The line
39.5

His last 5, rushing yards

70v NYG2026 week 6
30v MIN2026 week 5
9v ATL2026 week 4
14v LV2026 week 3
30v DET2026 week 1
Tyler Shough QB · NO 14+ rushing yards-115consensus market price

Tyler ShoughQB · NORushing yards

DataPitch 29% · Market 54%

Against this price: Gap -25pp

Under 13.5: -114consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated rushing yards
average 11.1, median 5
The line
13.5

His last 5, rushing yards

32v NYG2026 week 6
0v MIN2026 week 5
5v ATL2026 week 4
36v LV2026 week 3
23v BAL2026 week 2
Passing yards2
Tyler Shough QB · NO 233+ passing yards-107consensus market price

Tyler ShoughQB · NOPassing yards

DataPitch 54% · Market 52%

Against this price: Gap +2pp

Under 232.5: -114consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated passing yards
average 243.7, median 239
The line
232.5

His last 5, passing yards

144v NYG2026 week 6
87v MIN2026 week 5
270v ATL2026 week 4
233v LV2026 week 3
233v BAL2026 week 2
Aaron Rodgers QB · PIT 236+ passing yards-114consensus market price

Aaron RodgersQB · PITPassing yards

DataPitch 27% · Market 53%

Against this price: Gap -26pp

Under 235.5: -115consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated passing yards
average 199, median 193
The line
235.5

His last 5, passing yards

211v TB2026 week 6
225v IND2026 week 5
269v CLE2026 week 4
273v CIN2026 week 3
144v NE2026 week 2

Every price is a captured market quote in American odds, labelled as such; our percentage and the gap to the market's sit behind the row's tap. A row's colour is our number against the price: green means we like him to go over well beyond what the price says, red means the price likes him more than we do, white means the two are close. A row's last five counts his last five games in this market, most recent first, regular season and playoffs.

Around this game

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