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Indianapolis Colts at Minnesota Vikings

Week 7 · Sun Oct 25, 1:00 PM ET · Market line MIN -6.5 · total 41.5

Our read on this game

2 of the 19 rows we price on this game are strong tonight, and all of them are Indianapolis Colts players.

Strongest of themJonathan TaylorRB · IND3+ receptions+105consensus market price

Prices taken Wed 21 Oct, 23:43 UK. 6 rows on this game carry a doubtful man, marked on the row and with the reason behind its tap.

Every market we price

Called before kickoff: 2. Pending 2.

19 rows on 4 markets, best first: tap a market to open it, tap a player for his numbers, the price behind his and what our read rests on.

Oddsto

19 players across every market.

Receiving yards17
Jonathan Taylor RB · IND 17+ receiving yards-114consensus market price

Jonathan TaylorRB · INDReceiving yards

DataPitch 58% · Market 53%

Against this price: Gap +5pp

Under 16.5: -110consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receiving yards
average 25, median 20
The line
16.5

His last 5, receiving yards

57v TEN2026 week 6
37v PIT2026 week 5
2v WAS2026 week 4
4v HOU2026 week 3
40v KC2026 week 2
DoubtfulJordan Addison WR · MIN 44+ receiving yards-114consensus market price

Jordan AddisonWR · MINReceiving yards

Doubtful: Questionable: Hamstring - Questionable for Week 7 vs. Indianapolis

DataPitch 31% · Market 53%

Against this price: Gap -22pp

Under 43.5: -115consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receiving yards
average 33.9, median 28
The line
43.5

His last 5, receiving yards

52v MIA2026 week 4
90v TB2026 week 3
21v CHI2026 week 2
0v GB2026 week 1
8v GB2025 week 18
More players (5)
DoubtfulT.J. Hockenson TE · MIN 37+ receiving yards-114consensus market price

T.J. HockensonTE · MINReceiving yards

Doubtful: Questionable: Concussion - Questionable for Week 7 vs. Indianapolis

DataPitch 27% · Market 53%

Against this price: Gap -26pp

Under 36.5: -114consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receiving yards
average 26.3, median 21
The line
36.5

His last 5, receiving yards

7v NO2026 week 5
119v MIA2026 week 4
11v TB2026 week 3
29v CHI2026 week 2
36v GB2026 week 1
Justin Jefferson WR · MIN 73+ receiving yards-115consensus market price

Justin JeffersonWR · MINReceiving yards

DataPitch 20% · Market 54%

Against this price: Gap -34pp

Under 72.5: -114consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receiving yards
average 48.4, median 43
The line
72.5

His last 5, receiving yards

79v NO2026 week 5
32v TB2026 week 3
55v CHI2026 week 2
92v GB2026 week 1
101v GB2025 week 18
DoubtfulTyler Warren TE · IND 42+ receiving yardsno fresh market price in the 2026-10-21 capture; an older price is not shown

Tyler WarrenTE · INDReceiving yards

Doubtful: Questionable: Groin - Questionable for Week 7 at Minnesota

DataPitch 48%

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receiving yards
average 45.1, median 40
The line
41.5

His last 5, receiving yards

83v PIT2026 week 5
41v WAS2026 week 4
55v HOU2026 week 3
21v KC2026 week 2
13v BAL2026 week 1
Keenan Allen WR · IND 41+ receiving yardsno fresh market price in the 2026-10-21 capture; an older price is not shown

Keenan AllenWR · INDReceiving yards

DataPitch 45%

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receiving yards
average 41.6, median 37
The line
40.5

His last 5, receiving yards

82v TEN2026 week 6
45v PIT2026 week 5
63v HOU2026 week 3
5v KC2026 week 2
32v BAL2026 week 1
Josh Downs WR · IND 45+ receiving yardsno fresh market price in the 2026-10-21 capture; an older price is not shown

Josh DownsWR · INDReceiving yards

DataPitch 35%

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receiving yards
average 38.8, median 34
The line
44.5

His last 5, receiving yards

40v TEN2026 week 6
47v PIT2026 week 5
16v WAS2026 week 4
77v HOU2026 week 3
72v KC2026 week 2
Receptions17
Jonathan Taylor RB · IND 3+ receptions+105consensus market price

Jonathan TaylorRB · INDReceptions

DataPitch 55% · Market 49%

Against this price: Gap +6pp

Under 2.5: -138consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receptions
average 3.1, median 3
The line
2.5

His last 5, receptions

2v TEN2026 week 6
3v PIT2026 week 5
1v WAS2026 week 4
2v HOU2026 week 3
4v KC2026 week 2
DoubtfulJordan Addison WR · MIN 4+ receptions+110consensus market price

Jordan AddisonWR · MINReceptions

Doubtful: Questionable: Hamstring - Questionable for Week 7 vs. Indianapolis

DataPitch 20% · Market 48%

Against this price: Gap -28pp

Under 3.5: -145consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receptions
average 2.2, median 2
The line
3.5

His last 5, receptions

4v MIA2026 week 4
5v TB2026 week 3
2v CHI2026 week 2
0v GB2026 week 1
1v GB2025 week 18
More players (5)
DoubtfulT.J. Hockenson TE · MIN 5+ receptions+110consensus market price

T.J. HockensonTE · MINReceptions

Doubtful: Questionable: Concussion - Questionable for Week 7 vs. Indianapolis

DataPitch 18% · Market 48%

Against this price: Gap -30pp

Under 4.5: -145consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receptions
average 2.8, median 2
The line
4.5

His last 5, receptions

1v NO2026 week 5
13v MIA2026 week 4
2v TB2026 week 3
3v CHI2026 week 2
4v GB2026 week 1
Justin Jefferson WR · MIN 6+ receptions-140consensus market price

Justin JeffersonWR · MINReceptions

DataPitch 17% · Market 58%

Against this price: Gap -41pp

Under 5.5: +106consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receptions
average 3.6, median 3
The line
5.5

His last 5, receptions

6v NO2026 week 5
2v TB2026 week 3
3v CHI2026 week 2
8v GB2026 week 1
8v GB2025 week 18
DoubtfulTyler Warren TE · IND 5+ receptionsno fresh market price in the 2026-10-21 capture; an older price is not shown

Tyler WarrenTE · INDReceptions

Doubtful: Questionable: Groin - Questionable for Week 7 at Minnesota

DataPitch 47%

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receptions
average 4.6, median 4
The line
4.5

His last 5, receptions

7v PIT2026 week 5
5v WAS2026 week 4
9v HOU2026 week 3
6v KC2026 week 2
3v BAL2026 week 1
Josh Downs WR · IND 5+ receptionsno fresh market price in the 2026-10-21 capture; an older price is not shown

Josh DownsWR · INDReceptions

DataPitch 41%

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receptions
average 4.2, median 4
The line
4.5

His last 5, receptions

4v TEN2026 week 6
3v PIT2026 week 5
3v WAS2026 week 4
5v HOU2026 week 3
7v KC2026 week 2
Keenan Allen WR · IND 5+ receptionsno fresh market price in the 2026-10-21 capture; an older price is not shown

Keenan AllenWR · INDReceptions

DataPitch 32%

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receptions
average 3.7, median 3
The line
4.5

His last 5, receptions

8v TEN2026 week 6
5v PIT2026 week 5
6v HOU2026 week 3
1v KC2026 week 2
6v BAL2026 week 1
Rushing yards3
Jonathan Taylor RB · IND 70+ rushing yards-110consensus market price

Jonathan TaylorRB · INDRushing yards

DataPitch 45% · Market 52%

Against this price: Gap -7pp

Under 69.5: -114consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated rushing yards
average 71.2, median 65
The line
69.5

His last 5, rushing yards

94v TEN2026 week 6
45v PIT2026 week 5
95v WAS2026 week 4
68v HOU2026 week 3
92v KC2026 week 2
Kyler Murray QB · MIN 18+ rushing yardsno fresh market price in the 2026-10-21 capture; an older price is not shown

Kyler MurrayQB · MINRushing yards

DataPitch 43%

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated rushing yards
average 20.6, median 14
The line
17.5

His last 5, rushing yards

51v NO2026 week 5
16v MIA2026 week 4
17v TB2026 week 3
9v GB2026 week 1
25v TEN2025 week 5
More players (1)
Daniel Jones QB · IND 10+ rushing yardsno fresh market price in the 2026-10-21 capture; an older price is not shown

Daniel JonesQB · INDRushing yards

DataPitch 21%

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated rushing yards
average 5.8, median 1
The line
9.5

His last 5, rushing yards

30v TEN2026 week 6
4v PIT2026 week 5
2v WAS2026 week 4
5v HOU2026 week 3
10v KC2026 week 2
Passing yards2
Daniel Jones QB · IND 197+ passing yards-114consensus market price

Daniel JonesQB · INDPassing yards

DataPitch 37% · Market 53%

Against this price: Gap -16pp

Under 196.5: -113consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated passing yards
average 182.3, median 177
The line
196.5

His last 5, passing yards

234v TEN2026 week 6
266v PIT2026 week 5
129v WAS2026 week 4
211v HOU2026 week 3
210v KC2026 week 2
Kyler Murray QB · MIN 205+ passing yards-114consensus market price

Kyler MurrayQB · MINPassing yards

DataPitch 23% · Market 53%

Against this price: Gap -30pp

Under 204.5: -113consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated passing yards
average 164.2, median 159
The line
204.5

His last 5, passing yards

211v NO2026 week 5
213v MIA2026 week 4
152v TB2026 week 3
18v GB2026 week 1
192v TEN2025 week 5

Every price is a captured market quote in American odds, labelled as such; our percentage and the gap to the market's sit behind the row's tap. A row's colour is our number against the price: green means we like him to go over well beyond what the price says, red means the price likes him more than we do, white means the two are close. A row's last five counts his last five games in this market, most recent first, regular season and playoffs.

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