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Miami Dolphins at New York Jets

Week 7 · Sun Oct 25, 1:00 PM ET · Market line NYJ -4.5 · total 38.5

Our read on this game

2 of the 14 rows we price on this game are strong tonight, and all of them are Miami Dolphins players.

Strongest of themGreg DulcichTE · MIA22+ receiving yards-113consensus market price

Prices taken Wed 21 Oct, 23:43 UK.

Every market we price

Called before kickoff: 2. Pending 2.

14 rows on 4 markets, best first: tap a market to open it, tap a player for his numbers, the price behind his and what our read rests on.

Oddsto

14 players across every market.

Receiving yards14
Greg Dulcich TE · MIA 22+ receiving yards-113consensus market price

Greg DulcichTE · MIAReceiving yards

DataPitch 62% · Market 53%

Against this price: Gap +9pp

Under 21.5: -115consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receiving yards
average 36.1, median 29
The line
21.5

His last 5, receiving yards

37v CIN2026 week 5
55v KC2026 week 3
17v SF2026 week 2
18v LV2026 week 1
31v NE2025 week 18
Mason Taylor TE · NYJ 23+ receiving yards-115consensus market price

Mason TaylorTE · NYJReceiving yards

DataPitch 26% · Market 54%

Against this price: Gap -28pp

Under 22.5: -115consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receiving yards
average 15.2, median 11
The line
22.5

His last 5, receiving yards

33v NE2026 week 6
24v CLE2026 week 5
-2v TEN2026 week 1
51v MIA2025 week 14
21v ATL2025 week 13
More players (2)
Malik Washington WR · MIA 42+ receiving yards-115consensus market price

Malik WashingtonWR · MIAReceiving yards

DataPitch 16% · Market 54%

Against this price: Gap -38pp

Under 41.5: -116consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receiving yards
average 22.7, median 18
The line
41.5

His last 5, receiving yards

43v CIN2026 week 5
67v MIN2026 week 4
56v KC2026 week 3
43v SF2026 week 2
53v LV2026 week 1
Garrett Wilson WR · NYJ 63+ receiving yards-114consensus market price

Garrett WilsonWR · NYJReceiving yards

DataPitch 13% · Market 53%

Against this price: Gap -40pp

Under 62.5: -114consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receiving yards
average 33.2, median 28
The line
62.5

His last 5, receiving yards

44v NE2026 week 6
104v CLE2026 week 5
27v CHI2026 week 4
107v DET2026 week 3
57v GB2026 week 2
Receptions14
Greg Dulcich TE · MIA 3+ receptions+120consensus market price

Greg DulcichTE · MIAReceptions

DataPitch 52% · Market 46%

Against this price: Gap +6pp

Under 2.5: -164consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receptions
average 2.9, median 3
The line
2.5

His last 5, receptions

4v CIN2026 week 5
5v KC2026 week 3
2v SF2026 week 2
2v LV2026 week 1
3v NE2025 week 18
Malik Washington WR · MIA 5+ receptions+112consensus market price

Malik WashingtonWR · MIAReceptions

DataPitch 13% · Market 47%

Against this price: Gap -34pp

Under 4.5: -159consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receptions
average 2.4, median 2
The line
4.5

His last 5, receptions

6v CIN2026 week 5
5v MIN2026 week 4
5v KC2026 week 3
4v SF2026 week 2
3v LV2026 week 1
More players (2)
Mason Taylor TE · NYJ 3+ receptions-175consensus market price

Mason TaylorTE · NYJReceptions

DataPitch 23% · Market 64%

Against this price: Gap -41pp

Under 2.5: +124consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receptions
average 1.6, median 1
The line
2.5

His last 5, receptions

4v NE2026 week 6
3v CLE2026 week 5
2v TEN2026 week 1
5v MIA2025 week 14
2v ATL2025 week 13
Garrett Wilson WR · NYJ 6+ receptions+105consensus market price

Garrett WilsonWR · NYJReceptions

DataPitch 7% · Market 49%

Against this price: Gap -42pp

Under 5.5: -138consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receptions
average 2.5, median 2
The line
5.5

His last 5, receptions

4v NE2026 week 6
7v CLE2026 week 5
3v CHI2026 week 4
10v DET2026 week 3
5v GB2026 week 2
Rushing yards5
Jaylen Wright RB · MIA 16+ rushing yards-115consensus market price

Jaylen WrightRB · MIARushing yards

DataPitch 56% · Market 54%

Against this price: Gap +2pp

Under 15.5: -114consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated rushing yards
average 25.5, median 19
The line
15.5

His last 5, rushing yards

11v CIN2026 week 5
7v MIN2026 week 4
11v SF2026 week 2
-1v LV2026 week 1
23v NE2025 week 18
Malik Willis QB · MIA 31+ rushing yards-114consensus market price

Malik WillisQB · MIARushing yards

DataPitch 48% · Market 53%

Against this price: Gap -5pp

Under 30.5: -114consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated rushing yards
average 36.3, median 29
The line
30.5

His last 5, rushing yards

74v CIN2026 week 5
11v MIN2026 week 4
56v KC2026 week 3
6v SF2026 week 2
39v LV2026 week 1
More players (3)
Ollie Gordon II RB · MIA 50+ rushing yards-110consensus market price

Ollie Gordon IIRB · MIARushing yards

DataPitch 32% · Market 52%

Against this price: Gap -20pp

Under 49.5: -114consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated rushing yards
average 41.1, median 33
The line
49.5

His last 5, rushing yards

88v CIN2026 week 5
100v MIN2026 week 4
41v KC2026 week 3
7v SF2026 week 2
9v NE2025 week 18
Geno Smith QB · NYJ 7+ rushing yards-116consensus market price

Geno SmithQB · NYJRushing yards

DataPitch 25% · Market 54%

Against this price: Gap -29pp

Under 6.5: -115consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated rushing yards
average 5.4, median 0
The line
6.5

His last 5, rushing yards

-1v NE2026 week 6
7v CLE2026 week 5
0v CHI2026 week 4
12v DET2026 week 3
17v GB2026 week 2
Braelon Allen RB · NYJ 71+ rushing yardsno fresh market price in the 2026-10-21 capture; an older price is not shown

Braelon AllenRB · NYJRushing yards

DataPitch 17%

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated rushing yards
average 41.4, median 34.5
The line
70.5

His last 5, rushing yards

78v NE2026 week 6
116v CLE2026 week 5
59v CHI2026 week 4
14v DET2026 week 3
7v GB2026 week 2
Passing yards1
Geno Smith QB · NYJ 223+ passing yards-112consensus market price

Geno SmithQB · NYJPassing yards

DataPitch 20% · Market 53%

Against this price: Gap -33pp

Under 222.5: -115consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated passing yards
average 171, median 166
The line
222.5

His last 5, passing yards

227v NE2026 week 6
142v CLE2026 week 5
98v CHI2026 week 4
279v DET2026 week 3
218v GB2026 week 2

Every price is a captured market quote in American odds, labelled as such; our percentage and the gap to the market's sit behind the row's tap. A row's colour is our number against the price: green means we like him to go over well beyond what the price says, red means the price likes him more than we do, white means the two are close. A row's last five counts his last five games in this market, most recent first, regular season and playoffs.

Around this game

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