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Los Angeles Rams at Las Vegas Raiders

Week 7 · Sun Oct 25, 4:25 PM ET · Market line LV +4.5 · total 47.5

Our read on this game

4 of the 23 rows we price on this game are strong tonight, and all of them are Los Angeles Rams players.

Strongest of themColby ParkinsonTE · LA3+ receptions+125consensus market price

Prices taken Wed 21 Oct, 23:43 UK.

Every market we price

Called before kickoff: 4. Pending 4.

23 rows on 4 markets, best first: tap a market to open it, tap a player for his numbers, the price behind his and what our read rests on.

Oddsto

23 players across every market.

Receiving yards28
Colby Parkinson TE · LA 20+ receiving yards-113consensus market price

Colby ParkinsonTE · LAReceiving yards

DataPitch 81% · Market 53%

Against this price: Gap +28pp

Under 19.5: -115consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receiving yards
average 46.6, median 41
The line
19.5

His last 5, receiving yards

31v ARI2026 week 6
3v BUF2026 week 5
0v DEN2026 week 3
15v NYG2026 week 2
6v SF2026 week 1
Puka Nacua WR · LA 100+ receiving yards-117consensus market price

Puka NacuaWR · LAReceiving yards

DataPitch 79% · Market 54%

Against this price: Gap +25pp

Under 99.5: -113consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receiving yards
average 148.2, median 143
The line
99.5

His last 5, receiving yards

80v ARI2026 week 6
138v BUF2026 week 5
125v PHI2026 week 4
74v SF2026 week 1
165v SEA2025 week 21
More players (6)
Davis Allen TE · LA 9+ receiving yards-114consensus market price

Davis AllenTE · LAReceiving yards

DataPitch 74% · Market 53%

Against this price: Gap +21pp

Under 8.5: -116consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receiving yards
average 23.9, median 19
The line
8.5

His last 5, receiving yards

0v ARI2026 week 6
24v BUF2026 week 5
0v PHI2026 week 4
19v DEN2026 week 3
7v NYG2026 week 2
Tre Tucker WR · LV 41+ receiving yards-115consensus market price

Tre TuckerWR · LVReceiving yards

DataPitch 42% · Market 54%

Against this price: Gap -12pp

Under 40.5: -115consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receiving yards
average 40.2, median 35
The line
40.5

His last 5, receiving yards

97v BUF2026 week 6
41v NE2026 week 5
44v KC2026 week 4
43v NO2026 week 3
119v LAC2026 week 2
Kyren Williams RB · LA 25+ receiving yards-112consensus market price

Kyren WilliamsRB · LAReceiving yards

DataPitch 39% · Market 53%

Against this price: Gap -14pp

Under 24.5: -120consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receiving yards
average 23.3, median 19
The line
24.5

His last 5, receiving yards

17v ARI2026 week 6
27v BUF2026 week 5
67v PHI2026 week 4
70v DEN2026 week 3
12v NYG2026 week 2
Michael Mayer TE · LV 30+ receiving yards-115consensus market price

Michael MayerTE · LVReceiving yards

DataPitch 38% · Market 54%

Against this price: Gap -16pp

Under 29.5: -114consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receiving yards
average 27.9, median 22
The line
29.5

His last 5, receiving yards

95v BUF2026 week 6
2v NE2026 week 5
82v KC2026 week 4
32v NO2026 week 3
23v LAC2026 week 2
Ashton Jeanty RB · LV 26+ receiving yards-114consensus market price

Ashton JeantyRB · LVReceiving yards

DataPitch 32% · Market 53%

Against this price: Gap -21pp

Under 25.5: -114consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receiving yards
average 21.2, median 17
The line
25.5

His last 5, receiving yards

36v BUF2026 week 6
50v NE2026 week 5
68v KC2026 week 4
37v NO2026 week 3
15v LAC2026 week 2
Brock Bowers TE · LV 71+ receiving yards-114consensus market price

Brock BowersTE · LVReceiving yards

DataPitch 11% · Market 53%

Against this price: Gap -42pp

Under 70.5: -115consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receiving yards
average 36, median 31
The line
70.5

His last 5, receiving yards

70v BUF2026 week 6
110v NE2026 week 5
86v KC2026 week 4
116v NO2026 week 3
33v HOU2025 week 16
Receptions28
Colby Parkinson TE · LA 3+ receptions+125consensus market price

Colby ParkinsonTE · LAReceptions

DataPitch 80% · Market 44%

Against this price: Gap +36pp

Under 2.5: -165consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receptions
average 4.8, median 4
The line
2.5

His last 5, receptions

5v ARI2026 week 6
1v BUF2026 week 5
0v DEN2026 week 3
2v NYG2026 week 2
1v SF2026 week 1
Puka Nacua WR · LA 8+ receptions-147consensus market price

Puka NacuaWR · LAReceptions

DataPitch 82% · Market 60%

Against this price: Gap +22pp

Under 7.5: +110consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receptions
average 11.1, median 11
The line
7.5

His last 5, receptions

6v ARI2026 week 6
17v BUF2026 week 5
9v PHI2026 week 4
5v SF2026 week 1
9v SEA2025 week 21
More players (6)
Davis Allen TE · LA 2+ receptions+180consensus market price

Davis AllenTE · LAReceptions

DataPitch 69% · Market 36%

Against this price: Gap +33pp

Under 1.5: -265consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receptions
average 2.6, median 2
The line
1.5

His last 5, receptions

0v ARI2026 week 6
2v BUF2026 week 5
0v PHI2026 week 4
2v DEN2026 week 3
1v NYG2026 week 2
Tre Tucker WR · LV 4+ receptions+110consensus market price

Tre TuckerWR · LVReceptions

DataPitch 35% · Market 48%

Against this price: Gap -13pp

Under 3.5: -141consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receptions
average 3, median 3
The line
3.5

His last 5, receptions

5v BUF2026 week 6
4v NE2026 week 5
4v KC2026 week 4
4v NO2026 week 3
5v LAC2026 week 2
Kyren Williams RB · LA 4+ receptions-117consensus market price

Kyren WilliamsRB · LAReceptions

DataPitch 36% · Market 54%

Against this price: Gap -18pp

Under 3.5: -112consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receptions
average 3, median 3
The line
3.5

His last 5, receptions

3v ARI2026 week 6
6v BUF2026 week 5
10v PHI2026 week 4
6v DEN2026 week 3
2v NYG2026 week 2
Michael Mayer TE · LV 4+ receptions-128consensus market price

Michael MayerTE · LVReceptions

DataPitch 31% · Market 56%

Against this price: Gap -25pp

Under 3.5: +100consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receptions
average 2.8, median 2
The line
3.5

His last 5, receptions

7v BUF2026 week 6
1v NE2026 week 5
8v KC2026 week 4
3v NO2026 week 3
3v LAC2026 week 2
Ashton Jeanty RB · LV 4+ receptions-125consensus market price

Ashton JeantyRB · LVReceptions

DataPitch 30% · Market 56%

Against this price: Gap -26pp

Under 3.5: -105consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receptions
average 2.7, median 2
The line
3.5

His last 5, receptions

4v BUF2026 week 6
3v NE2026 week 5
6v KC2026 week 4
3v NO2026 week 3
4v LAC2026 week 2
Brock Bowers TE · LV 7+ receptions+110consensus market price

Brock BowersTE · LVReceptions

DataPitch 11% · Market 48%

Against this price: Gap -37pp

Under 6.5: -145consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receptions
average 3.7, median 3
The line
6.5

His last 5, receptions

4v BUF2026 week 6
8v NE2026 week 5
6v KC2026 week 4
10v NO2026 week 3
5v HOU2025 week 16
Rushing yards5
Kyren Williams RB · LA 64+ rushing yards-115consensus market price

Kyren WilliamsRB · LARushing yards

DataPitch 53% · Market 54%

Against this price: Gap -1pp

Under 63.5: -114consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated rushing yards
average 72.8, median 67
The line
63.5

His last 5, rushing yards

50v ARI2026 week 6
49v BUF2026 week 5
80v PHI2026 week 4
88v DEN2026 week 3
85v NYG2026 week 2
Blake Corum RB · LA 38+ rushing yards-114consensus market price

Blake CorumRB · LARushing yards

DataPitch 50% · Market 53%

Against this price: Gap -3pp

Under 37.5: -115consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated rushing yards
average 45.8, median 38
The line
37.5

His last 5, rushing yards

42v ARI2026 week 6
19v BUF2026 week 5
14v PHI2026 week 4
15v DEN2026 week 3
79v NYG2026 week 2
More players (3)
Ashton Jeanty RB · LV 50+ rushing yards-113consensus market price

Ashton JeantyRB · LVRushing yards

DataPitch 49% · Market 53%

Against this price: Gap -4pp

Under 49.5: -115consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated rushing yards
average 53.2, median 48
The line
49.5

His last 5, rushing yards

22v BUF2026 week 6
27v NE2026 week 5
58v KC2026 week 4
56v NO2026 week 3
48v LAC2026 week 2
Kirk Cousins QB · LV 1+ rushing yardsno fresh market price in the 2026-10-21 capture; an older price is not shown

Kirk CousinsQB · LVRushing yards

DataPitch 47%

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated rushing yards
average 5.8, median 0
The line
0.5

His last 5, rushing yards

0v BUF2026 week 6
0v NE2026 week 5
0v KC2026 week 4
3v NO2026 week 3
1v LAC2026 week 2
Matthew Stafford QB · LA 1+ rushing yardsno fresh market price in the 2026-10-21 capture; an older price is not shown

Matthew StaffordQB · LARushing yards

DataPitch 46%

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated rushing yards
average 6.3, median 0
The line
0.5

His last 5, rushing yards

0v ARI2026 week 6
0v BUF2026 week 5
10v PHI2026 week 4
13v DEN2026 week 3
-1v NYG2026 week 2
Passing yards2
Matthew Stafford QB · LA 271+ passing yards-114consensus market price

Matthew StaffordQB · LAPassing yards

DataPitch 37% · Market 53%

Against this price: Gap -16pp

Under 270.5: -114consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated passing yards
average 250.5, median 245
The line
270.5

His last 5, passing yards

194v ARI2026 week 6
377v BUF2026 week 5
309v PHI2026 week 4
366v DEN2026 week 3
318v NYG2026 week 2
Kirk Cousins QB · LV 238+ passing yards-115consensus market price

Kirk CousinsQB · LVPassing yards

DataPitch 37% · Market 54%

Against this price: Gap -17pp

Under 237.5: -115consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated passing yards
average 218.3, median 213
The line
237.5

His last 5, passing yards

313v BUF2026 week 6
220v NE2026 week 5
367v KC2026 week 4
227v NO2026 week 3
248v LAC2026 week 2

Every price is a captured market quote in American odds, labelled as such; our percentage and the gap to the market's sit behind the row's tap. A row's colour is our number against the price: green means we like him to go over well beyond what the price says, red means the price likes him more than we do, white means the two are close. A row's last five counts his last five games in this market, most recent first, regular season and playoffs.

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