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Kansas City Chiefs at Seattle Seahawks

Week 7 · Sun Oct 25, 8:20 PM ET · Market line SEA -2.5 · total 42.5

Our read on this game

1 of the 19 rows we price on this game is strong tonight.

Strongest of themPatrick MahomesQB · KC220+ passing yards-112consensus market price

Prices taken Wed 21 Oct, 23:43 UK.

Every market we price

Called before kickoff: 1. Pending 1.

19 rows on 4 markets, best first: tap a market to open it, tap a player for his numbers, the price behind his and what our read rests on.

Oddsto

19 players across every market.

Receiving yards7
Tory Horton WR · SEA 12+ receiving yards-112consensus market price

Tory HortonWR · SEAReceiving yards

DataPitch 66% · Market 53%

Against this price: Gap +13pp

Under 11.5: -116consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receiving yards
average 28.5, median 23
The line
11.5

His last 5, receiving yards

13v DEN2026 week 6
6v LAC2026 week 4
48v WAS2026 week 3
48v WAS2025 week 9
0v HOU2025 week 7
Cooper Kupp WR · SEA 25+ receiving yards-113consensus market price

Cooper KuppWR · SEAReceiving yards

DataPitch 65% · Market 53%

Against this price: Gap +12pp

Under 24.5: -114consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receiving yards
average 40.9, median 35
The line
24.5

His last 5, receiving yards

50v DEN2026 week 6
15v SF2026 week 5
13v LAC2026 week 4
46v WAS2026 week 3
20v ARI2026 week 2
More players (5)
Jaxon Smith-Njigba WR · SEA 93+ receiving yards-117consensus market price

Jaxon Smith-NjigbaWR · SEAReceiving yards

DataPitch 40% · Market 54%

Against this price: Gap -14pp

Under 92.5: -114consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receiving yards
average 86.8, median 81
The line
92.5

His last 5, receiving yards

134v DEN2026 week 6
102v SF2026 week 5
76v LAC2026 week 4
128v WAS2026 week 3
155v ARI2026 week 2
Kenneth Walker RB · KC 20+ receiving yards-114consensus market price

Kenneth WalkerRB · KCReceiving yards

DataPitch 38% · Market 53%

Against this price: Gap -15pp

Under 19.5: -114consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receiving yards
average 18.7, median 13
The line
19.5

His last 5, receiving yards

11v LAC2026 week 6
2v LV2026 week 4
3v MIA2026 week 3
61v IND2026 week 2
18v DEN2026 week 1
Rashid Shaheed WR · SEA 26+ receiving yards-115consensus market price

Rashid ShaheedWR · SEAReceiving yards

DataPitch 37% · Market 54%

Against this price: Gap -17pp

Under 25.5: -115consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receiving yards
average 23.8, median 18
The line
25.5

His last 5, receiving yards

66v DEN2026 week 6
23v SF2026 week 5
20v LAC2026 week 4
14v WAS2026 week 3
35v ARI2026 week 2
Travis Kelce TE · KC 47+ receiving yards-114consensus market price

Travis KelceTE · KCReceiving yards

DataPitch 35% · Market 53%

Against this price: Gap -18pp

Under 46.5: -114consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receiving yards
average 40.9, median 35
The line
46.5

His last 5, receiving yards

53v LAC2026 week 6
15v LV2026 week 4
59v MIA2026 week 3
101v IND2026 week 2
71v DEN2026 week 1
AJ Barner TE · SEA 25+ receiving yards-112consensus market price

AJ BarnerTE · SEAReceiving yards

DataPitch 33% · Market 53%

Against this price: Gap -20pp

Under 24.5: -115consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receiving yards
average 20.5, median 16
The line
24.5

His last 5, receiving yards

16v DEN2026 week 6
20v SF2026 week 5
12v LAC2026 week 4
69v WAS2026 week 3
8v ARI2026 week 2
Receptions7
Cooper Kupp WR · SEA 3+ receptions+105consensus market price

Cooper KuppWR · SEAReceptions

DataPitch 69% · Market 49%

Against this price: Gap +20pp

Under 2.5: -138consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receptions
average 3.8, median 4
The line
2.5

His last 5, receptions

5v DEN2026 week 6
2v SF2026 week 5
1v LAC2026 week 4
4v WAS2026 week 3
2v ARI2026 week 2
Tory Horton WR · SEA 2+ receptions+124consensus market price

Tory HortonWR · SEAReceptions

DataPitch 52% · Market 45%

Against this price: Gap +7pp

Under 1.5: -165consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receptions
average 1.9, median 2
The line
1.5

His last 5, receptions

1v DEN2026 week 6
1v LAC2026 week 4
3v WAS2026 week 3
4v WAS2025 week 9
0v HOU2025 week 7
More players (5)
Travis Kelce TE · KC 5+ receptions+115consensus market price

Travis KelceTE · KCReceptions

DataPitch 36% · Market 47%

Against this price: Gap -11pp

Under 4.5: -152consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receptions
average 3.9, median 4
The line
4.5

His last 5, receptions

4v LAC2026 week 6
2v LV2026 week 4
2v MIA2026 week 3
9v IND2026 week 2
3v DEN2026 week 1
Jaxon Smith-Njigba WR · SEA 7+ receptions-135consensus market price

Jaxon Smith-NjigbaWR · SEAReceptions

DataPitch 41% · Market 57%

Against this price: Gap -16pp

Under 6.5: +105consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receptions
average 6.1, median 6
The line
6.5

His last 5, receptions

12v DEN2026 week 6
5v SF2026 week 5
5v LAC2026 week 4
10v WAS2026 week 3
9v ARI2026 week 2
Rashid Shaheed WR · SEA 3+ receptions+105consensus market price

Rashid ShaheedWR · SEAReceptions

DataPitch 27% · Market 49%

Against this price: Gap -22pp

Under 2.5: -138consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receptions
average 1.8, median 2
The line
2.5

His last 5, receptions

5v DEN2026 week 6
2v SF2026 week 5
1v LAC2026 week 4
2v WAS2026 week 3
3v ARI2026 week 2
AJ Barner TE · SEA 3+ receptions-148consensus market price

AJ BarnerTE · SEAReceptions

DataPitch 35% · Market 60%

Against this price: Gap -25pp

Under 2.5: +111consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receptions
average 2.2, median 2
The line
2.5

His last 5, receptions

3v DEN2026 week 6
3v SF2026 week 5
1v LAC2026 week 4
5v WAS2026 week 3
1v ARI2026 week 2
Kenneth Walker RB · KC 4+ receptions+123consensus market price

Kenneth WalkerRB · KCReceptions

DataPitch 18% · Market 45%

Against this price: Gap -27pp

Under 3.5: -160consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receptions
average 2, median 2
The line
3.5

His last 5, receptions

2v LAC2026 week 6
1v LV2026 week 4
2v MIA2026 week 3
6v IND2026 week 2
3v DEN2026 week 1
Rushing yards3
Sam Darnold QB · SEA 5+ rushing yards-115consensus market price

Sam DarnoldQB · SEARushing yards

DataPitch 30% · Market 54%

Against this price: Gap -24pp

Under 4.5: -113consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated rushing yards
average 5.1, median 0
The line
4.5

His last 5, rushing yards

19v DEN2026 week 6
5v SF2026 week 5
6v LAC2026 week 4
5v WAS2026 week 3
0v NE2026 week 1
Patrick Mahomes QB · KC 15+ rushing yards-115consensus market price

Patrick MahomesQB · KCRushing yards

DataPitch 17% · Market 54%

Against this price: Gap -37pp

Under 14.5: -111consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated rushing yards
average 7.2, median 2
The line
14.5

His last 5, rushing yards

16v LAC2026 week 6
0v LV2026 week 4
1v MIA2026 week 3
17v IND2026 week 2
23v DEN2026 week 1
More players (1)
Kenneth Walker RB · KC 87+ rushing yards-115consensus market price

Kenneth WalkerRB · KCRushing yards

DataPitch 11% · Market 54%

Against this price: Gap -43pp

Under 86.5: -114consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated rushing yards
average 47.2, median 41
The line
86.5

His last 5, rushing yards

128v LAC2026 week 6
177v LV2026 week 4
70v MIA2026 week 3
117v IND2026 week 2
173v DEN2026 week 1
Passing yards12
Patrick Mahomes QB · KC 220+ passing yards-112consensus market price

Patrick MahomesQB · KCPassing yards

DataPitch 78% · Market 53%

Against this price: Gap +25pp

Under 219.5: -115consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated passing yards
average 280.7, median 275
The line
219.5

His last 5, passing yards

272v LAC2026 week 6
210v LV2026 week 4
246v MIA2026 week 3
371v IND2026 week 2
172v DEN2026 week 1
Sam Darnold QB · SEA 223+ passing yards-115consensus market price

Sam DarnoldQB · SEAPassing yards

DataPitch 44% · Market 54%

Against this price: Gap -10pp

Under 222.5: -114consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated passing yards
average 218.2, median 212
The line
222.5

His last 5, passing yards

242v DEN2026 week 6
162v SF2026 week 5
148v LAC2026 week 4
379v WAS2026 week 3
8v NE2026 week 1

Every price is a captured market quote in American odds, labelled as such; our percentage and the gap to the market's sit behind the row's tap. A row's colour is our number against the price: green means we like him to go over well beyond what the price says, red means the price likes him more than we do, white means the two are close. A row's last five counts his last five games in this market, most recent first, regular season and playoffs.

Around this game

Week 7 NFL player props, every gameSeattle Seahawks season simulation and futures pricesKansas City Chiefs season simulation and futures pricesWeek 6 resultsEvery NFL futures price on the Futures SimulatorHow the simulator works

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