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Denver Broncos at Arizona Cardinals

Week 7 · Sun Oct 25, 4:05 PM ET · Market line ARI +4.5 · total 43.5

Our read on this game

2 of the 27 rows we price on this game are strong tonight, and all of them are Denver Broncos players.

Strongest of themCourtland SuttonWR · DEN36+ receiving yards-115consensus market price

Prices taken Wed 21 Oct, 23:43 UK.

Every market we price

Called before kickoff: 2. Pending 2.

27 rows on 4 markets, best first: tap a market to open it, tap a player for his numbers, the price behind his and what our read rests on.

Oddsto

27 players across every market.

Receiving yards110
Courtland Sutton WR · DEN 36+ receiving yards-115consensus market price

Courtland SuttonWR · DENReceiving yards

DataPitch 69% · Market 54%

Against this price: Gap +15pp

Under 35.5: -115consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receiving yards
average 58.8, median 53
The line
35.5

His last 5, receiving yards

19v SEA2026 week 6
18v LAC2026 week 5
4v SF2026 week 4
46v LA2026 week 3
25v JAX2026 week 2
Marvin Mims Jr. WR · DEN 13+ receiving yards-114consensus market price

Marvin Mims Jr.WR · DENReceiving yards

DataPitch 83% · Market 53%

Against this price: Gap +30pp

Under 12.5: -115consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receiving yards
average 44.3, median 38
The line
12.5

His last 5, receiving yards

13v SEA2026 week 6
6v LAC2026 week 5
10v SF2026 week 4
0v KC2026 week 1
62v NE2025 week 21
More players (8)
Troy Franklin WR · DEN 16+ receiving yards-115consensus market price

Troy FranklinWR · DENReceiving yards

DataPitch 73% · Market 54%

Against this price: Gap +19pp

Under 15.5: -111consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receiving yards
average 34.6, median 29
The line
15.5

His last 5, receiving yards

2v SEA2026 week 6
16v LAC2026 week 5
21v LA2026 week 3
27v JAX2026 week 2
0v KC2026 week 1
Michael Wilson WR · ARI 48+ receiving yards-121consensus market price

Michael WilsonWR · ARIReceiving yards

DataPitch 58% · Market 55%

Against this price: Gap +3pp

Under 47.5: -117consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receiving yards
average 60.3, median 55
The line
47.5

His last 5, receiving yards

32v LA2026 week 6
30v DET2026 week 5
95v NYG2026 week 4
89v SF2026 week 3
18v SEA2026 week 2
J.K. Dobbins RB · DEN 6+ receiving yards-108consensus market price

J.K. DobbinsRB · DENReceiving yards

DataPitch 52% · Market 52%

Against this price: Gap +0pp

Under 5.5: -108consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receiving yards
average 10.1, median 6
The line
5.5

His last 5, receiving yards

5v SEA2026 week 6
6v LAC2026 week 5
12v SF2026 week 4
4v LA2026 week 3
0v JAX2026 week 2
Elijah Higgins TE · ARI 16+ receiving yards-105consensus market price

Elijah HigginsTE · ARIReceiving yards

DataPitch 46% · Market 51%

Against this price: Gap -5pp

Under 15.5: -120consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receiving yards
average 18.9, median 13
The line
15.5

His last 5, receiving yards

28v LA2026 week 6
57v DET2026 week 5
19v NYG2026 week 4
20v SF2026 week 3
0v SEA2026 week 2
Kendrick Bourne WR · ARI 37+ receiving yards-115consensus market price

Kendrick BourneWR · ARIReceiving yards

DataPitch 45% · Market 54%

Against this price: Gap -9pp

Under 36.5: -115consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receiving yards
average 38.6, median 33
The line
36.5

His last 5, receiving yards

47v LA2026 week 6
70v DET2026 week 5
22v SF2026 week 3
11v SEA2026 week 2
75v LAC2026 week 1
Jaylen Waddle WR · DEN 55+ receiving yards-114consensus market price

Jaylen WaddleWR · DENReceiving yards

DataPitch 34% · Market 53%

Against this price: Gap -19pp

Under 54.5: -115consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receiving yards
average 46.3, median 39
The line
54.5

His last 5, receiving yards

24v SEA2026 week 6
19v LAC2026 week 5
35v SF2026 week 4
10v LA2026 week 3
138v JAX2026 week 2
Trey McBride TE · ARI 66+ receiving yards-118consensus market price

Trey McBrideTE · ARIReceiving yards

DataPitch 32% · Market 54%

Against this price: Gap -22pp

Under 65.5: -114consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receiving yards
average 54.3, median 50
The line
65.5

His last 5, receiving yards

53v LA2026 week 6
66v DET2026 week 5
31v NYG2026 week 4
75v SF2026 week 3
41v SEA2026 week 2
RJ Harvey RB · DEN 25+ receiving yardsno fresh market price in the 2026-10-21 capture; an older price is not shown

RJ HarveyRB · DENReceiving yards

DataPitch 43%

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receiving yards
average 25.7, median 21
The line
24.5

His last 5, receiving yards

31v SEA2026 week 6
0v LAC2026 week 5
68v SF2026 week 4
41v LA2026 week 3
23v KC2026 week 1
Receptions110
Courtland Sutton WR · DEN 4+ receptions+115consensus market price

Courtland SuttonWR · DENReceptions

DataPitch 56% · Market 47%

Against this price: Gap +9pp

Under 3.5: -150consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receptions
average 4.1, median 4
The line
3.5

His last 5, receptions

2v SEA2026 week 6
2v LAC2026 week 5
1v SF2026 week 4
3v LA2026 week 3
3v JAX2026 week 2
Marvin Mims Jr. WR · DEN 2+ receptions-108consensus market price

Marvin Mims Jr.WR · DENReceptions

DataPitch 78% · Market 52%

Against this price: Gap +26pp

Under 1.5: -115consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receptions
average 3.4, median 3
The line
1.5

His last 5, receptions

2v SEA2026 week 6
2v LAC2026 week 5
1v SF2026 week 4
0v KC2026 week 1
4v NE2025 week 21
More players (8)
Troy Franklin WR · DEN 2+ receptions-130consensus market price

Troy FranklinWR · DENReceptions

DataPitch 68% · Market 57%

Against this price: Gap +11pp

Under 1.5: +100consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receptions
average 2.6, median 2
The line
1.5

His last 5, receptions

1v SEA2026 week 6
2v LAC2026 week 5
1v LA2026 week 3
1v JAX2026 week 2
0v KC2026 week 1
Michael Wilson WR · ARI 5+ receptions+100consensus market price

Michael WilsonWR · ARIReceptions

DataPitch 46% · Market 50%

Against this price: Gap -4pp

Under 4.5: -125consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receptions
average 4.6, median 4
The line
4.5

His last 5, receptions

4v LA2026 week 6
4v DET2026 week 5
7v NYG2026 week 4
11v SF2026 week 3
2v SEA2026 week 2
Elijah Higgins TE · ARI 2+ receptions-142consensus market price

Elijah HigginsTE · ARIReceptions

DataPitch 53% · Market 59%

Against this price: Gap -6pp

Under 1.5: +110consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receptions
average 2, median 2
The line
1.5

His last 5, receptions

3v LA2026 week 6
3v DET2026 week 5
2v NYG2026 week 4
3v SF2026 week 3
0v SEA2026 week 2
J.K. Dobbins RB · DEN 2+ receptions+122consensus market price

J.K. DobbinsRB · DENReceptions

DataPitch 36% · Market 45%

Against this price: Gap -9pp

Under 1.5: +100consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receptions
average 1.3, median 1
The line
1.5

His last 5, receptions

3v SEA2026 week 6
2v LAC2026 week 5
2v SF2026 week 4
1v LA2026 week 3
0v JAX2026 week 2
Kendrick Bourne WR · ARI 4+ receptions-104consensus market price

Kendrick BourneWR · ARIReceptions

DataPitch 33% · Market 51%

Against this price: Gap -18pp

Under 3.5: -125consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receptions
average 2.9, median 3
The line
3.5

His last 5, receptions

5v LA2026 week 6
5v DET2026 week 5
2v SF2026 week 3
2v SEA2026 week 2
8v LAC2026 week 1
Trey McBride TE · ARI 8+ receptions+105consensus market price

Trey McBrideTE · ARIReceptions

DataPitch 25% · Market 49%

Against this price: Gap -24pp

Under 7.5: -140consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receptions
average 5.8, median 6
The line
7.5

His last 5, receptions

7v LA2026 week 6
9v DET2026 week 5
7v NYG2026 week 4
9v SF2026 week 3
8v SEA2026 week 2
Jaylen Waddle WR · DEN 5+ receptions-155consensus market price

Jaylen WaddleWR · DENReceptions

DataPitch 23% · Market 61%

Against this price: Gap -38pp

Under 4.5: +111consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receptions
average 3.1, median 3
The line
4.5

His last 5, receptions

4v SEA2026 week 6
2v LAC2026 week 5
5v SF2026 week 4
2v LA2026 week 3
8v JAX2026 week 2
RJ Harvey RB · DEN 4+ receptionsno fresh market price in the 2026-10-21 capture; an older price is not shown

RJ HarveyRB · DENReceptions

DataPitch 36%

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receptions
average 3.1, median 3
The line
3.5

His last 5, receptions

3v SEA2026 week 6
0v LAC2026 week 5
10v SF2026 week 4
6v LA2026 week 3
4v KC2026 week 1
Rushing yards5
J.K. Dobbins RB · DEN 59+ rushing yards-115consensus market price

J.K. DobbinsRB · DENRushing yards

DataPitch 47% · Market 54%

Against this price: Gap -7pp

Under 58.5: -115consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated rushing yards
average 61.5, median 55
The line
58.5

His last 5, rushing yards

41v SEA2026 week 6
68v LAC2026 week 5
40v SF2026 week 4
49v LA2026 week 3
36v JAX2026 week 2
Bo Nix QB · DEN 13+ rushing yards-116consensus market price

Bo NixQB · DENRushing yards

DataPitch 42% · Market 54%

Against this price: Gap -12pp

Under 12.5: -124consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated rushing yards
average 15.4, median 9
The line
12.5

His last 5, rushing yards

2v SEA2026 week 6
10v LAC2026 week 5
10v SF2026 week 4
7v LA2026 week 3
6v JAX2026 week 2
More players (3)
Jacoby Brissett QB · ARI 7+ rushing yards-114consensus market price

Jacoby BrissettQB · ARIRushing yards

DataPitch 24% · Market 53%

Against this price: Gap -29pp

Under 6.5: -113consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated rushing yards
average 4.7, median 0
The line
6.5

His last 5, rushing yards

2v LA2026 week 6
19v DET2026 week 5
18v NYG2026 week 4
4v SF2026 week 3
7v SEA2026 week 2
RJ Harvey RB · DEN 20+ rushing yardsno fresh market price in the 2026-10-21 capture; an older price is not shown

RJ HarveyRB · DENRushing yards

DataPitch 52%

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated rushing yards
average 26.9, median 21
The line
19.5

His last 5, rushing yards

25v SEA2026 week 6
7v LAC2026 week 5
25v SF2026 week 4
6v LA2026 week 3
18v KC2026 week 1
Tyler Allgeier RB · ARI 31+ rushing yardsno fresh market price in the 2026-10-21 capture; an older price is not shown

Tyler AllgeierRB · ARIRushing yards

DataPitch 16%

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated rushing yards
average 16.1, median 11
The line
30.5

His last 5, rushing yards

38v LA2026 week 6
7v DET2026 week 5
42v NYG2026 week 4
-1v SF2026 week 3
10v SEA2026 week 2
Passing yards2
Bo Nix QB · DEN 221+ passing yards-114consensus market price

Bo NixQB · DENPassing yards

DataPitch 52% · Market 53%

Against this price: Gap -1pp

Under 220.5: -114consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated passing yards
average 228.5, median 224
The line
220.5

His last 5, passing yards

94v SEA2026 week 6
118v LAC2026 week 5
214v SF2026 week 4
183v LA2026 week 3
288v JAX2026 week 2
Jacoby Brissett QB · ARI 239+ passing yards-117consensus market price

Jacoby BrissettQB · ARIPassing yards

DataPitch 32% · Market 54%

Against this price: Gap -22pp

Under 238.5: -114consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated passing yards
average 213.4, median 209
The line
238.5

His last 5, passing yards

218v LA2026 week 6
264v DET2026 week 5
147v NYG2026 week 4
272v SF2026 week 3
81v SEA2026 week 2

Every price is a captured market quote in American odds, labelled as such; our percentage and the gap to the market's sit behind the row's tap. A row's colour is our number against the price: green means we like him to go over well beyond what the price says, red means the price likes him more than we do, white means the two are close. A row's last five counts his last five games in this market, most recent first, regular season and playoffs.

Around this game

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