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Dallas Cowboys at Philadelphia Eagles

Week 7 · Mon Oct 26, 8:15 PM ET · Market line PHI +4.5 · total 44.5

Our read on this game

4 of the 19 rows we price on this game are strong tonight, and they split evenly between the two sides.

Strongest of themTanner McKeeQB · PHI213+ passing yards-115consensus market price

Prices taken Wed 21 Oct, 23:43 UK.

Every market we price

Called before kickoff: 4. Pending 4.

19 rows on 4 markets, best first: tap a market to open it, tap a player for his numbers, the price behind his and what our read rests on.

Oddsto

19 players across every market.

Receiving yards27
Jake Ferguson TE · DAL 20+ receiving yards-113consensus market price

Jake FergusonTE · DALReceiving yards

DataPitch 60% · Market 53%

Against this price: Gap +7pp

Under 19.5: -115consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receiving yards
average 28.8, median 24
The line
19.5

His last 5, receiving yards

13v GB2026 week 6
19v TB2026 week 5
11v HOU2026 week 4
23v BAL2026 week 3
43v WAS2026 week 2
Dallas Goedert TE · PHI 39+ receiving yards-113consensus market price

Dallas GoedertTE · PHIReceiving yards

DataPitch 59% · Market 53%

Against this price: Gap +6pp

Under 38.5: -115consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receiving yards
average 51.4, median 46
The line
38.5

His last 5, receiving yards

61v CAR2026 week 6
38v JAX2026 week 5
4v TEN2026 week 2
77v WAS2026 week 1
33v SF2025 week 19
More players (5)
Ryan Flournoy WR · DAL 33+ receiving yards-115consensus market price

Ryan FlournoyWR · DALReceiving yards

DataPitch 64% · Market 54%

Against this price: Gap +10pp

Under 32.5: -115consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receiving yards
average 48.1, median 43
The line
32.5

His last 5, receiving yards

40v GB2026 week 6
90v TB2026 week 5
37v HOU2026 week 4
22v BAL2026 week 3
23v WAS2026 week 2
George Pickens WR · DAL 63+ receiving yards-115consensus market price

George PickensWR · DALReceiving yards

DataPitch 45% · Market 54%

Against this price: Gap -9pp

Under 62.5: -114consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receiving yards
average 64.5, median 58
The line
62.5

His last 5, receiving yards

73v GB2026 week 6
130v TB2026 week 5
75v HOU2026 week 4
82v BAL2026 week 3
40v WAS2026 week 2
Javonte Williams RB · DAL 13+ receiving yards-115consensus market price

Javonte WilliamsRB · DALReceiving yards

DataPitch 35% · Market 54%

Against this price: Gap -19pp

Under 12.5: -114consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receiving yards
average 11.3, median 8
The line
12.5

His last 5, receiving yards

9v GB2026 week 6
17v TB2026 week 5
21v HOU2026 week 4
5v BAL2026 week 3
20v WAS2026 week 2
DeVonta Smith WR · PHI 71+ receiving yards-114consensus market price

DeVonta SmithWR · PHIReceiving yards

DataPitch 33% · Market 53%

Against this price: Gap -20pp

Under 70.5: -114consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receiving yards
average 59.2, median 53
The line
70.5

His last 5, receiving yards

75v CAR2026 week 6
65v CHI2026 week 3
117v TEN2026 week 2
53v WAS2026 week 1
70v SF2025 week 19
CeeDee Lamb WR · DAL 81+ receiving yards-115consensus market price

CeeDee LambWR · DALReceiving yards

DataPitch 25% · Market 54%

Against this price: Gap -29pp

Under 80.5: -111consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receiving yards
average 58.1, median 52
The line
80.5

His last 5, receiving yards

70v GB2026 week 6
9v TB2026 week 5
189v HOU2026 week 4
112v BAL2026 week 3
153v WAS2026 week 2
Receptions17
Jake Ferguson TE · DAL 3+ receptions-113consensus market price

Jake FergusonTE · DALReceptions

DataPitch 60% · Market 53%

Against this price: Gap +7pp

Under 2.5: -115consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receptions
average 3.4, median 3
The line
2.5

His last 5, receptions

2v GB2026 week 6
3v TB2026 week 5
3v HOU2026 week 4
3v BAL2026 week 3
4v WAS2026 week 2
Ryan Flournoy WR · DAL 4+ receptions+106consensus market price

Ryan FlournoyWR · DALReceptions

DataPitch 50% · Market 49%

Against this price: Gap +1pp

Under 3.5: -140consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receptions
average 3.8, median 4
The line
3.5

His last 5, receptions

7v GB2026 week 6
3v TB2026 week 5
4v HOU2026 week 4
2v BAL2026 week 3
5v WAS2026 week 2
More players (5)
Dallas Goedert TE · PHI 5+ receptions-114consensus market price

Dallas GoedertTE · PHIReceptions

DataPitch 52% · Market 53%

Against this price: Gap -1pp

Under 4.5: -115consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receptions
average 5, median 5
The line
4.5

His last 5, receptions

6v CAR2026 week 6
6v JAX2026 week 5
1v TEN2026 week 2
4v WAS2026 week 1
4v SF2025 week 19
George Pickens WR · DAL 5+ receptions-134consensus market price

George PickensWR · DALReceptions

DataPitch 44% · Market 57%

Against this price: Gap -13pp

Under 4.5: +104consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receptions
average 4.4, median 4
The line
4.5

His last 5, receptions

6v GB2026 week 6
9v TB2026 week 5
2v HOU2026 week 4
7v BAL2026 week 3
6v WAS2026 week 2
Javonte Williams RB · DAL 3+ receptions+104consensus market price

Javonte WilliamsRB · DALReceptions

DataPitch 23% · Market 49%

Against this price: Gap -26pp

Under 2.5: -137consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receptions
average 1.6, median 1
The line
2.5

His last 5, receptions

2v GB2026 week 6
2v TB2026 week 5
5v HOU2026 week 4
2v BAL2026 week 3
3v WAS2026 week 2
DeVonta Smith WR · PHI 7+ receptions-113consensus market price

DeVonta SmithWR · PHIReceptions

DataPitch 17% · Market 53%

Against this price: Gap -36pp

Under 6.5: -114consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receptions
average 4.3, median 4
The line
6.5

His last 5, receptions

7v CAR2026 week 6
6v CHI2026 week 3
10v TEN2026 week 2
3v WAS2026 week 1
8v SF2025 week 19
CeeDee Lamb WR · DAL 8+ receptions+115consensus market price

CeeDee LambWR · DALReceptions

DataPitch 9% · Market 47%

Against this price: Gap -38pp

Under 7.5: -152consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receptions
average 4.1, median 4
The line
7.5

His last 5, receptions

9v GB2026 week 6
2v TB2026 week 5
17v HOU2026 week 4
7v BAL2026 week 3
8v WAS2026 week 2
Rushing yards3
Javonte Williams RB · DAL 67+ rushing yards-115consensus market price

Javonte WilliamsRB · DALRushing yards

DataPitch 55% · Market 54%

Against this price: Gap +1pp

Under 66.5: -120consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated rushing yards
average 76.7, median 71
The line
66.5

His last 5, rushing yards

41v GB2026 week 6
45v TB2026 week 5
62v HOU2026 week 4
98v BAL2026 week 3
30v WAS2026 week 2
Tanner McKee QB · PHI 6+ rushing yards+100consensus market price

Tanner McKeeQB · PHIRushing yards

DataPitch 36% · Market 50%

Against this price: Gap -14pp

Under 5.5: +104consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated rushing yards
average 8.5, median 1
The line
5.5

His last 5, rushing yards

0v CAR2026 week 6
3v WAS2025 week 18
-2v WAS2025 week 16
9v LV2025 week 15
-2v NYG2025 week 8
More players (1)
Dak Prescott QB · DAL 10+ rushing yardsno fresh market price in the 2026-10-21 capture; an older price is not shown

Dak PrescottQB · DALRushing yards

DataPitch 31%

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated rushing yards
average 9.1, median 3
The line
9.5

His last 5, rushing yards

7v GB2026 week 6
0v TB2026 week 5
7v HOU2026 week 4
19v BAL2026 week 3
26v WAS2026 week 2
Passing yards12
Tanner McKee QB · PHI 213+ passing yards-115consensus market price

Tanner McKeeQB · PHIPassing yards

DataPitch 73% · Market 54%

Against this price: Gap +19pp

Under 212.5: -115consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated passing yards
average 261.7, median 257
The line
212.5

His last 5, passing yards

187v CAR2026 week 6
227v WAS2025 week 18
33v LV2025 week 15
252v NYG2024 week 18
54v DAL2024 week 17
Dak Prescott QB · DAL 264+ passing yards-115consensus market price

Dak PrescottQB · DALPassing yards

DataPitch 46% · Market 54%

Against this price: Gap -8pp

Under 263.5: -114consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated passing yards
average 260.6, median 255
The line
263.5

His last 5, passing yards

255v GB2026 week 6
316v TB2026 week 5
324v HOU2026 week 4
269v BAL2026 week 3
266v WAS2026 week 2

Every price is a captured market quote in American odds, labelled as such; our percentage and the gap to the market's sit behind the row's tap. A row's colour is our number against the price: green means we like him to go over well beyond what the price says, red means the price likes him more than we do, white means the two are close. A row's last five counts his last five games in this market, most recent first, regular season and playoffs.

Around this game

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