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San Francisco 49ers at Dallas Cowboys

Week 10 · Sun Nov 15, 4:25 PM ET · Market line DAL +3.5 · total 55.5

Our read on this game

3 of the 17 rows we price on this game are strong tonight, and all of them are San Francisco 49ers players.

Strongest of themChristian McCaffreyRB · SF33+ receiving yards-115consensus market price

Prices taken Wed 11 Nov, 17:56 UK.

Every market we price

Called before kickoff: 3. Pending 3.

17 rows on 4 markets, best first: tap a market to open it, tap a player for his numbers, the price behind his and what our read rests on.

Oddsto

17 players across every market.

Receiving yards15
Christian McCaffrey RB · SF 33+ receiving yards-115consensus market price

Christian McCaffreyRB · SFReceiving yards

DataPitch 73% · Market 54%

Against this price: Gap +19pp

Under 32.5: -115consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receiving yards
average 54.6, median 50
The line
32.5

His last 5, receiving yards

19v LV2026 week 9
61v ATL2026 week 7
53v WAS2026 week 6
15v SEA2026 week 5
18v DEN2026 week 4
George Kittle TE · SF 62+ receiving yards-114DraftKings

George KittleTE · SFReceiving yards

DataPitch 57% · Market 53%

Against this price: Gap +4pp

Under 61.5: -111DraftKings

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receiving yards
average 74.8, median 69
The line
61.5

His last 5, receiving yards

58v LV2026 week 9
88v ATL2026 week 7
69v WAS2026 week 6
24v SEA2026 week 5
70v DEN2026 week 4
More players (3)
Javonte Williams RB · DAL 13+ receiving yards-119DraftKings

Javonte WilliamsRB · DALReceiving yards

DataPitch 42% · Market 54%

Against this price: Gap -12pp

Under 12.5: -108DraftKings

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receiving yards
average 13.3, median 10
The line
12.5

His last 5, receiving yards

23v IND2026 week 9
1v ARI2026 week 8
0v PHI2026 week 7
9v GB2026 week 6
17v TB2026 week 5
Deebo Samuel Sr. WR · SF 39+ receiving yards-115consensus market price

Deebo Samuel Sr.WR · SFReceiving yards

DataPitch 41% · Market 54%

Against this price: Gap -13pp

Under 38.5: -114consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receiving yards
average 37.5, median 32
The line
38.5

His last 5, receiving yards

21v SEA2026 week 5
26v DEN2026 week 4
80v ARI2026 week 3
31v MIA2026 week 2
48v LA2026 week 1
CeeDee Lamb WR · DAL 90+ receiving yards-111DraftKings

CeeDee LambWR · DALReceiving yards

DataPitch 23% · Market 53%

Against this price: Gap -30pp

Under 89.5: -114DraftKings

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receiving yards
average 64.6, median 59
The line
89.5

His last 5, receiving yards

195v IND2026 week 9
58v ARI2026 week 8
74v PHI2026 week 7
70v GB2026 week 6
9v TB2026 week 5
Receptions25
Christian McCaffrey RB · SF 5+ receptions+102DraftKings

Christian McCaffreyRB · SFReceptions

DataPitch 67% · Market 50%

Against this price: Gap +17pp

Under 4.5: -132DraftKings

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receptions
average 6.1, median 6
The line
4.5

His last 5, receptions

2v LV2026 week 9
6v ATL2026 week 7
9v WAS2026 week 6
3v SEA2026 week 5
3v DEN2026 week 4
George Kittle TE · SF 6+ receptions+110Bet365

George KittleTE · SFReceptions

DataPitch 59% · Market 48%

Against this price: Gap +11pp

Under 5.5: -141Bet365

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receptions
average 6.5, median 6
The line
5.5

His last 5, receptions

4v LV2026 week 9
8v ATL2026 week 7
5v WAS2026 week 6
5v SEA2026 week 5
4v DEN2026 week 4
More players (3)
Deebo Samuel Sr. WR · SF 4+ receptions-127consensus market price

Deebo Samuel Sr.WR · SFReceptions

DataPitch 44% · Market 56%

Against this price: Gap -12pp

Under 3.5: -105consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receptions
average 3.4, median 3
The line
3.5

His last 5, receptions

2v SEA2026 week 5
5v DEN2026 week 4
0v ARI2026 week 3
3v MIA2026 week 2
6v LA2026 week 1
Javonte Williams RB · DAL 3+ receptions-145DraftKings

Javonte WilliamsRB · DALReceptions

DataPitch 31% · Market 59%

Against this price: Gap -28pp

Under 2.5: +113DraftKings

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receptions
average 1.9, median 2
The line
2.5

His last 5, receptions

4v IND2026 week 9
1v ARI2026 week 8
0v PHI2026 week 7
2v GB2026 week 6
2v TB2026 week 5
CeeDee Lamb WR · DAL 8+ receptions+110Bet365

CeeDee LambWR · DALReceptions

DataPitch 15% · Market 48%

Against this price: Gap -33pp

Under 7.5: -141Bet365

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receptions
average 4.8, median 4
The line
7.5

His last 5, receptions

10v IND2026 week 9
7v ARI2026 week 8
5v PHI2026 week 7
9v GB2026 week 6
2v TB2026 week 5
Rushing yards5
Kaelon Black RB · SF 34+ rushing yards-114DraftKings

Kaelon BlackRB · SFRushing yards

DataPitch 49% · Market 53%

Against this price: Gap -4pp

Under 33.5: -111DraftKings

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated rushing yards
average 39.5, median 32
The line
33.5

His last 5, rushing yards

70v LV2026 week 9
63v ATL2026 week 7
34v WAS2026 week 6
16v SEA2026 week 5
13v DEN2026 week 4
Javonte Williams RB · DAL 66+ rushing yards-113consensus market price

Javonte WilliamsRB · DALRushing yards

DataPitch 44% · Market 53%

Against this price: Gap -9pp

Under 65.5: -113consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated rushing yards
average 65.2, median 60
The line
65.5

His last 5, rushing yards

101v IND2026 week 9
56v ARI2026 week 8
155v PHI2026 week 7
41v GB2026 week 6
45v TB2026 week 5
More players (3)
Christian McCaffrey RB · SF 62+ rushing yards-114consensus market price

Christian McCaffreyRB · SFRushing yards

DataPitch 38% · Market 53%

Against this price: Gap -15pp

Under 61.5: -114consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated rushing yards
average 56.4, median 50
The line
61.5

His last 5, rushing yards

68v LV2026 week 9
39v ATL2026 week 7
64v WAS2026 week 6
68v SEA2026 week 5
52v DEN2026 week 4
Brock Purdy QB · SF 19+ rushing yards-114consensus market price

Brock PurdyQB · SFRushing yards

DataPitch 29% · Market 53%

Against this price: Gap -24pp

Under 18.5: -113consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated rushing yards
average 15.3, median 9
The line
18.5

His last 5, rushing yards

40v LV2026 week 9
5v ATL2026 week 7
28v WAS2026 week 6
6v SEA2026 week 5
29v DEN2026 week 4
Dak Prescott QB · DAL 10+ rushing yards-118DraftKings

Dak PrescottQB · DALRushing yards

DataPitch 25% · Market 54%

Against this price: Gap -29pp

Under 9.5: -108DraftKings

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated rushing yards
average 7.1, median 2
The line
9.5

His last 5, rushing yards

1v IND2026 week 9
20v ARI2026 week 8
8v PHI2026 week 7
7v GB2026 week 6
0v TB2026 week 5
Passing yards2
Brock Purdy QB · SF 254+ passing yards-112DraftKings

Brock PurdyQB · SFPassing yards

DataPitch 52% · Market 53%

Against this price: Gap -1pp

Under 253.5: -112DraftKings

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated passing yards
average 264, median 257
The line
253.5

His last 5, passing yards

224v LV2026 week 9
277v ATL2026 week 7
249v WAS2026 week 6
177v SEA2026 week 5
218v DEN2026 week 4
Dak Prescott QB · DAL 268+ passing yards-114consensus market price

Dak PrescottQB · DALPassing yards

DataPitch 42% · Market 53%

Against this price: Gap -11pp

Under 267.5: -114consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated passing yards
average 258, median 254
The line
267.5

His last 5, passing yards

329v IND2026 week 9
168v ARI2026 week 8
212v PHI2026 week 7
255v GB2026 week 6
316v TB2026 week 5

Every price is a captured market quote in American odds, labelled as such; our percentage and the gap to the market's sit behind the row's tap. A row's colour is our number against the price: green means we rate the row's own selection well above what the price says, red means the price rates it more than we do, white means the two are close. A row's last five counts his last five games in this market, most recent first, regular season and playoffs.

Around this game

Week 10 NFL player props, every gameDallas Cowboys season simulation and futures pricesSan Francisco 49ers season simulation and futures pricesWeek 9 resultsEvery NFL futures price on the Futures SimulatorHow the simulator works

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