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Pittsburgh Steelers at Cincinnati Bengals

Week 10 · Sun Nov 15, 8:20 PM ET · Market line CIN -3.5 · total 49.5

Our read on this game

4 of the 29 rows we price on this game are strong tonight, and 3 of them are Cincinnati Bengals players.

Strongest of themChase BrownRB · CIN44+ rushing yards-115consensus market price

Prices taken Wed 11 Nov, 17:56 UK.

Every market we price

Called before kickoff: 4. Pending 4.

29 rows on 4 markets, best first: tap a market to open it, tap a player for his numbers, the price behind his and what our read rests on.

Oddsto

29 players across every market.

Receiving yards29
DK Metcalf WR · PIT 51+ receiving yards-115consensus market price

DK MetcalfWR · PITReceiving yards

DataPitch 65% · Market 54%

Against this price: Gap +11pp

Under 50.5: -114consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receiving yards
average 72.4, median 66
The line
50.5

His last 5, receiving yards

4v CLE2026 week 8
56v NO2026 week 7
93v TB2026 week 6
12v IND2026 week 5
115v CLE2026 week 4
Drew Sample TE · CIN 7+ receiving yards-116Bet365

Drew SampleTE · CINReceiving yards

DataPitch 63% · Market 54%

Against this price: Gap +9pp

Under 6.5: -116Bet365

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receiving yards
average 16.7, median 11
The line
6.5

His last 5, receiving yards

24v BAL2026 week 7
5v MIA2026 week 5
0v PIT2026 week 3
19v TB2026 week 1
17v CLE2025 week 18
More players (7)
Chase Brown RB · CIN 25+ receiving yards-116Bet365

Chase BrownRB · CINReceiving yards

DataPitch 55% · Market 54%

Against this price: Gap +1pp

Under 24.5: -116Bet365

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receiving yards
average 31.4, median 27
The line
24.5

His last 5, receiving yards

18v ATL2026 week 9
46v TEN2026 week 8
19v BAL2026 week 7
21v MIA2026 week 5
71v JAX2026 week 4
Rico Dowdle RB · PIT 14+ receiving yards-116Bet365

Rico DowdleRB · PITReceiving yards

DataPitch 52% · Market 54%

Against this price: Gap -2pp

Under 13.5: -116Bet365

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receiving yards
average 20.1, median 15
The line
13.5

His last 5, receiving yards

0v CLE2026 week 8
45v NO2026 week 7
9v TB2026 week 6
22v NE2026 week 2
6v ATL2026 week 1
Pat Freiermuth TE · PIT 26+ receiving yards-106consensus market price

Pat FreiermuthTE · PITReceiving yards

DataPitch 50% · Market 52%

Against this price: Gap -2pp

Under 25.5: -107consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receiving yards
average 32.2, median 26
The line
25.5

His last 5, receiving yards

35v CLE2026 week 8
20v NO2026 week 7
11v TB2026 week 6
44v IND2026 week 5
17v CLE2026 week 4
Ja'Marr Chase WR · CIN 92+ receiving yards-113consensus market price

Ja'Marr ChaseWR · CINReceiving yards

DataPitch 47% · Market 53%

Against this price: Gap -6pp

Under 91.5: -114consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receiving yards
average 93, median 88
The line
91.5

His last 5, receiving yards

155v ATL2026 week 9
141v TEN2026 week 8
62v BAL2026 week 7
77v MIA2026 week 5
27v JAX2026 week 4
Darnell Washington TE · PIT 29+ receiving yards-110DraftKings

Darnell WashingtonTE · PITReceiving yards

DataPitch 40% · Market 52%

Against this price: Gap -12pp

Under 28.5: -116DraftKings

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receiving yards
average 28, median 22
The line
28.5

His last 5, receiving yards

94v CLE2026 week 8
4v NO2026 week 7
25v TB2026 week 6
12v IND2026 week 5
27v CLE2026 week 4
Tee Higgins WR · CIN 77+ receiving yards-114consensus market price

Tee HigginsWR · CINReceiving yards

DataPitch 31% · Market 53%

Against this price: Gap -22pp

Under 76.5: -114consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receiving yards
average 62.7, median 57
The line
76.5

His last 5, receiving yards

32v ATL2026 week 9
155v TEN2026 week 8
148v BAL2026 week 7
22v MIA2026 week 5
157v JAX2026 week 4
Jaylen Warren RB · PIT 26+ receiving yards-114DraftKings

Jaylen WarrenRB · PITReceiving yards

DataPitch 24% · Market 53%

Against this price: Gap -29pp

Under 25.5: -111DraftKings

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receiving yards
average 17.2, median 12
The line
25.5

His last 5, receiving yards

0v CLE2026 week 8
36v NO2026 week 7
28v TB2026 week 6
87v IND2026 week 5
33v CLE2026 week 4
Receptions19
Drew Sample TE · CIN 2+ receptions+170Bet365

Drew SampleTE · CINReceptions

DataPitch 48% · Market 37%

Against this price: Gap +11pp

Under 1.5: -222Bet365

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receptions
average 1.8, median 1
The line
1.5

His last 5, receptions

2v BAL2026 week 7
1v MIA2026 week 5
1v PIT2026 week 3
3v TB2026 week 1
3v CLE2025 week 18
DK Metcalf WR · PIT 5+ receptions+109DraftKings

DK MetcalfWR · PITReceptions

DataPitch 48% · Market 48%

Against this price: Gap +0pp

Under 4.5: -141DraftKings

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receptions
average 4.7, median 4
The line
4.5

His last 5, receptions

1v CLE2026 week 8
2v NO2026 week 7
11v TB2026 week 6
3v IND2026 week 5
5v CLE2026 week 4
More players (7)
Chase Brown RB · CIN 5+ receptions+115Bet365

Chase BrownRB · CINReceptions

DataPitch 39% · Market 47%

Against this price: Gap -8pp

Under 4.5: -147Bet365

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receptions
average 4.2, median 4
The line
4.5

His last 5, receptions

3v ATL2026 week 9
8v TEN2026 week 8
4v BAL2026 week 7
3v MIA2026 week 5
11v JAX2026 week 4
Pat Freiermuth TE · PIT 3+ receptions-125Bet365

Pat FreiermuthTE · PITReceptions

DataPitch 47% · Market 56%

Against this price: Gap -9pp

Under 2.5: -105Bet365

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receptions
average 2.7, median 2
The line
2.5

His last 5, receptions

2v CLE2026 week 8
2v NO2026 week 7
2v TB2026 week 6
5v IND2026 week 5
3v CLE2026 week 4
Rico Dowdle RB · PIT 3+ receptions+123DraftKings

Rico DowdleRB · PITReceptions

DataPitch 34% · Market 45%

Against this price: Gap -11pp

Under 2.5: -159DraftKings

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receptions
average 2.1, median 2
The line
2.5

His last 5, receptions

0v CLE2026 week 8
6v NO2026 week 7
3v TB2026 week 6
2v NE2026 week 2
2v ATL2026 week 1
Darnell Washington TE · PIT 3+ receptions-108DraftKings

Darnell WashingtonTE · PITReceptions

DataPitch 41% · Market 52%

Against this price: Gap -11pp

Under 2.5: -119DraftKings

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receptions
average 2.4, median 2
The line
2.5

His last 5, receptions

3v CLE2026 week 8
1v NO2026 week 7
4v TB2026 week 6
2v IND2026 week 5
3v CLE2026 week 4
Ja'Marr Chase WR · CIN 8+ receptions-138consensus market price

Ja'Marr ChaseWR · CINReceptions

DataPitch 46% · Market 58%

Against this price: Gap -12pp

Under 7.5: +105consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receptions
average 7.4, median 7
The line
7.5

His last 5, receptions

10v ATL2026 week 9
11v TEN2026 week 8
5v BAL2026 week 7
6v MIA2026 week 5
3v JAX2026 week 4
Tee Higgins WR · CIN 6+ receptions-123DraftKings

Tee HigginsWR · CINReceptions

DataPitch 31% · Market 55%

Against this price: Gap -24pp

Under 5.5: -104DraftKings

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receptions
average 4.5, median 4
The line
5.5

His last 5, receptions

5v ATL2026 week 9
10v TEN2026 week 8
6v BAL2026 week 7
2v MIA2026 week 5
11v JAX2026 week 4
Jaylen Warren RB · PIT 3+ receptions-167consensus market price

Jaylen WarrenRB · PITReceptions

DataPitch 31% · Market 63%

Against this price: Gap -32pp

Under 2.5: +128consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receptions
average 1.9, median 2
The line
2.5

His last 5, receptions

1v CLE2026 week 8
3v NO2026 week 7
2v TB2026 week 6
6v IND2026 week 5
3v CLE2026 week 4
Rushing yards19
Chase Brown RB · CIN 44+ rushing yards-115consensus market price

Chase BrownRB · CINRushing yards

DataPitch 72% · Market 54%

Against this price: Gap +18pp

Under 43.5: -112consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated rushing yards
average 70.2, median 65
The line
43.5

His last 5, rushing yards

57v ATL2026 week 9
55v TEN2026 week 8
39v BAL2026 week 7
39v MIA2026 week 5
10v JAX2026 week 4
Rico Dowdle RB · PIT 32+ rushing yards-115DraftKings

Rico DowdleRB · PITRushing yards

DataPitch 57% · Market 54%

Against this price: Gap +3pp

Under 31.5: -111DraftKings

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated rushing yards
average 43, median 36
The line
31.5

His last 5, rushing yards

56v CLE2026 week 8
41v NO2026 week 7
40v TB2026 week 6
22v NE2026 week 2
15v ATL2026 week 1
More players (7)
Jaylen Warren RB · PIT 62+ rushing yards-115DraftKings

Jaylen WarrenRB · PITRushing yards

DataPitch 54% · Market 54%

Against this price: Gap +0pp

Under 61.5: -111DraftKings

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated rushing yards
average 71.1, median 64
The line
61.5

His last 5, rushing yards

143v CLE2026 week 8
101v NO2026 week 7
50v TB2026 week 6
101v IND2026 week 5
93v CLE2026 week 4
Samaje Perine RB · CIN 24+ rushing yards-112DraftKings

Samaje PerineRB · CINRushing yards

DataPitch 50% · Market 53%

Against this price: Gap -3pp

Under 23.5: -112DraftKings

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated rushing yards
average 30.6, median 24
The line
23.5

His last 5, rushing yards

43v ATL2026 week 9
10v TEN2026 week 8
16v BAL2026 week 7
68v MIA2026 week 5
7v JAX2026 week 4
Joe Burrow QB · CIN 7+ rushing yards-110DraftKings

Joe BurrowQB · CINRushing yards

DataPitch 48% · Market 52%

Against this price: Gap -4pp

Under 6.5: -116DraftKings

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated rushing yards
average 12.4, median 6
The line
6.5

His last 5, rushing yards

7v ATL2026 week 9
10v TEN2026 week 8
12v BAL2026 week 7
10v MIA2026 week 5
6v JAX2026 week 4
Aaron Rodgers QB · PIT 1+ rushing yards-105Bet365

Aaron RodgersQB · PITRushing yards

DataPitch 44% · Market 51%

Against this price: Gap -7pp

Under 0.5: -125Bet365

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated rushing yards
average 6.4, median 0
The line
0.5

His last 5, rushing yards

0v CLE2026 week 8
6v NO2026 week 7
-1v TB2026 week 6
6v IND2026 week 5
0v CLE2026 week 4
Germie Bernard WR · PIT 1+ rushing yards+550Bet365

Germie BernardWR · PITRushing yards

DataPitch 7% · Market 15%

Against this price: Gap -8pp

Under 0.5: -909Bet365

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated rushing yards
average 0.9, median 0
The line
0.5

His last 5, rushing yards

0v CLE2026 week 8
0v NO2026 week 7
0v TB2026 week 6
4v IND2026 week 5
0v CLE2026 week 4
DK Metcalf WR · PIT 1+ rushing yards+625Bet365

DK MetcalfWR · PITRushing yards

DataPitch 5% · Market 14%

Against this price: Gap -9pp

Under 0.5: -1111Bet365

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated rushing yards
average 0.7, median 0
The line
0.5

His last 5, rushing yards

0v CLE2026 week 8
0v NO2026 week 7
0v TB2026 week 6
11v IND2026 week 5
0v CLE2026 week 4
Pat Freiermuth TE · PIT 1+ rushing yards+100consensus market price

Pat FreiermuthTE · PITRushing yards

DataPitch 8% · Market 50%

Against this price: Gap -42pp

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated rushing yards
average 0.9, median 0
The line
0.5

His last 5, rushing yards

1v CLE2026 week 8
0v NO2026 week 7
0v TB2026 week 6
1v IND2026 week 5
0v CLE2026 week 4
Passing yards2
Aaron Rodgers QB · PIT 241+ passing yards-112DraftKings

Aaron RodgersQB · PITPassing yards

DataPitch 42% · Market 53%

Against this price: Gap -11pp

Under 240.5: -112DraftKings

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated passing yards
average 231.8, median 226
The line
240.5

His last 5, passing yards

161v CLE2026 week 8
195v NO2026 week 7
211v TB2026 week 6
225v IND2026 week 5
269v CLE2026 week 4
Joe Burrow QB · CIN 289+ passing yards-116Bet365

Joe BurrowQB · CINPassing yards

DataPitch 17% · Market 54%

Against this price: Gap -37pp

Under 288.5: -116Bet365

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated passing yards
average 224.3, median 219
The line
288.5

His last 5, passing yards

265v ATL2026 week 9
435v TEN2026 week 8
284v BAL2026 week 7
190v MIA2026 week 5
414v JAX2026 week 4

Every price is a captured market quote in American odds, labelled as such; our percentage and the gap to the market's sit behind the row's tap. A row's colour is our number against the price: green means we rate the row's own selection well above what the price says, red means the price rates it more than we do, white means the two are close. A row's last five counts his last five games in this market, most recent first, regular season and playoffs.

Around this game

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