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Minnesota Vikings at Green Bay Packers

Week 10 · Sun Nov 15, 1:00 PM ET · Market line GB -3 · total 41.5

Our read on this game

3 of the 23 rows we price on this game are strong tonight, and all of them are Minnesota Vikings players.

Strongest of themAaron Jones Sr.RB · MIN28+ rushing yards-113consensus market price

Prices taken Wed 11 Nov, 17:56 UK. 2 rows on this game carry a doubtful man, marked on the row and with the reason behind its tap.

Every market we price

Called before kickoff: 3. Pending 3.

23 rows on 4 markets, best first: tap a market to open it, tap a player for his numbers, the price behind his and what our read rests on.

Oddsto

23 players across every market.

Receiving yards18
Aaron Jones Sr. RB · MIN 10+ receiving yards-114DraftKings

Aaron Jones Sr.RB · MINReceiving yards

DataPitch 69% · Market 53%

Against this price: Gap +16pp

Under 9.5: -111DraftKings

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receiving yards
average 20.4, median 16
The line
9.5

His last 5, receiving yards

5v BUF2026 week 9
18v DET2026 week 8
0v IND2026 week 7
4v NO2026 week 5
34v MIA2026 week 4
Jordan Addison WR · MIN 41+ receiving yards-115consensus market price

Jordan AddisonWR · MINReceiving yards

DataPitch 40% · Market 54%

Against this price: Gap -14pp

Under 40.5: -114consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receiving yards
average 38.7, median 32
The line
40.5

His last 5, receiving yards

28v BUF2026 week 9
66v DET2026 week 8
20v IND2026 week 7
52v MIA2026 week 4
90v TB2026 week 3
More players (6)
Tucker Kraft TE · GB 39+ receiving yards-111DraftKings

Tucker KraftTE · GBReceiving yards

DataPitch 38% · Market 53%

Against this price: Gap -15pp

Under 38.5: -114DraftKings

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receiving yards
average 35.4, median 31
The line
38.5

His last 5, receiving yards

1v NE2026 week 9
53v CAR2026 week 8
48v DET2026 week 7
37v DAL2026 week 6
64v CHI2026 week 5
T.J. Hockenson TE · MIN 39+ receiving yards-112DraftKings

T.J. HockensonTE · MINReceiving yards

DataPitch 28% · Market 53%

Against this price: Gap -25pp

Under 38.5: -112DraftKings

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receiving yards
average 29.1, median 24
The line
38.5

His last 5, receiving yards

33v BUF2026 week 9
58v DET2026 week 8
35v IND2026 week 7
7v NO2026 week 5
119v MIA2026 week 4
Christian Watson WR · GB 74+ receiving yards-114consensus market price

Christian WatsonWR · GBReceiving yards

DataPitch 26% · Market 53%

Against this price: Gap -27pp

Under 73.5: -113consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receiving yards
average 52.5, median 45
The line
73.5

His last 5, receiving yards

171v NE2026 week 9
113v CAR2026 week 8
57v DET2026 week 7
64v DAL2026 week 6
143v CHI2026 week 5
Justin Jefferson WR · MIN 78+ receiving yards-114consensus market price

Justin JeffersonWR · MINReceiving yards

DataPitch 22% · Market 53%

Against this price: Gap -31pp

Under 77.5: -108consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receiving yards
average 54.2, median 49
The line
77.5

His last 5, receiving yards

58v BUF2026 week 9
33v DET2026 week 8
44v IND2026 week 7
79v NO2026 week 5
32v TB2026 week 3
Matthew Golden WR · GB 70+ receiving yards-112DraftKings

Matthew GoldenWR · GBReceiving yards

DataPitch 11% · Market 53%

Against this price: Gap -42pp

Under 69.5: -112DraftKings

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receiving yards
average 32.4, median 26
The line
69.5

His last 5, receiving yards

164v NE2026 week 9
79v CAR2026 week 8
39v DET2026 week 7
104v DAL2026 week 6
123v CHI2026 week 5
Jonnu Smith TE · GB 1+ receiving yardsno fresh market price in the 2026-11-11 capture; an older price is not shown

Jonnu SmithTE · GBReceiving yards

DataPitch 84%

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receiving yards
average 17.3, median 13
The line
0.5

His last 5, receiving yards

9v DET2026 week 7
19v TB2026 week 4
16v ATL2026 week 3
50v MIN2026 week 1
-1v HOU2025 week 19
Receptions17
Aaron Jones Sr. RB · MIN 2+ receptions-172DraftKings

Aaron Jones Sr.RB · MINReceptions

DataPitch 69% · Market 63%

Against this price: Gap +6pp

Under 1.5: +133DraftKings

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receptions
average 2.6, median 2
The line
1.5

His last 5, receptions

1v BUF2026 week 9
2v DET2026 week 8
1v IND2026 week 7
3v NO2026 week 5
4v MIA2026 week 4
Tucker Kraft TE · GB 5+ receptions+126DraftKings

Tucker KraftTE · GBReceptions

DataPitch 25% · Market 44%

Against this price: Gap -19pp

Under 4.5: -164DraftKings

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receptions
average 3.3, median 3
The line
4.5

His last 5, receptions

1v NE2026 week 9
6v CAR2026 week 8
4v DET2026 week 7
5v DAL2026 week 6
5v CHI2026 week 5
More players (5)
T.J. Hockenson TE · MIN 5+ receptions+104DraftKings

T.J. HockensonTE · MINReceptions

DataPitch 25% · Market 49%

Against this price: Gap -24pp

Under 4.5: -133DraftKings

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receptions
average 3.2, median 3
The line
4.5

His last 5, receptions

4v BUF2026 week 9
4v DET2026 week 8
4v IND2026 week 7
1v NO2026 week 5
13v MIA2026 week 4
Jordan Addison WR · MIN 4+ receptions-145DraftKings

Jordan AddisonWR · MINReceptions

DataPitch 27% · Market 59%

Against this price: Gap -32pp

Under 3.5: +112DraftKings

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receptions
average 2.6, median 2
The line
3.5

His last 5, receptions

2v BUF2026 week 9
3v DET2026 week 8
2v IND2026 week 7
4v MIA2026 week 4
5v TB2026 week 3
Justin Jefferson WR · MIN 7+ receptions+105DraftKings

Justin JeffersonWR · MINReceptions

DataPitch 14% · Market 49%

Against this price: Gap -35pp

Under 6.5: -135DraftKings

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receptions
average 4.1, median 4
The line
6.5

His last 5, receptions

3v BUF2026 week 9
5v DET2026 week 8
4v IND2026 week 7
6v NO2026 week 5
2v TB2026 week 3
Christian Watson WR · GB 5+ receptions-152Bet365

Christian WatsonWR · GBReceptions

DataPitch 20% · Market 60%

Against this price: Gap -40pp

Under 4.5: +120Bet365

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receptions
average 2.9, median 3
The line
4.5

His last 5, receptions

7v NE2026 week 9
8v CAR2026 week 8
5v DET2026 week 7
3v DAL2026 week 6
6v CHI2026 week 5
Matthew Golden WR · GB 6+ receptions+105DraftKings

Matthew GoldenWR · GBReceptions

DataPitch 4% · Market 49%

Against this price: Gap -45pp

Under 5.5: -135DraftKings

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receptions
average 2.2, median 2
The line
5.5

His last 5, receptions

10v NE2026 week 9
7v CAR2026 week 8
6v DET2026 week 7
6v DAL2026 week 6
6v CHI2026 week 5
Rushing yards17
Aaron Jones Sr. RB · MIN 28+ rushing yards-113consensus market price

Aaron Jones Sr.RB · MINRushing yards

DataPitch 78% · Market 53%

Against this price: Gap +25pp

Under 27.5: -117consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated rushing yards
average 53.1, median 48
The line
27.5

His last 5, rushing yards

16v BUF2026 week 9
22v DET2026 week 8
26v IND2026 week 7
113v NO2026 week 5
94v MIA2026 week 4
DoubtfulMarShawn Lloyd RB · GB 13+ rushing yards-116DraftKings

MarShawn LloydRB · GBRushing yards

Doubtful: Knee (status not in our vocabulary): Inactive for Week 9 at New England

DataPitch 64% · Market 54%

Against this price: Gap +10pp

Under 12.5: -110DraftKings

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated rushing yards
average 25, median 20
The line
12.5

His last 5, rushing yards

7v CAR2026 week 8
20v DET2026 week 7
10v DAL2026 week 6
31v CHI2026 week 5
13v TB2026 week 4
More players (5)
DoubtfulPierre Strong Jr. RB · GB 12+ rushing yards-112consensus market price

Pierre Strong Jr.RB · GBRushing yards

Doubtful: his rushing yards line fell 15.5 to 11.5 between the open and the close, 26% at consensus: the market is pricing him down

DataPitch 54% · Market 53%

Against this price: Gap +1pp

Under 11.5: -114consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated rushing yards
average 19.1, median 13
The line
11.5

His last 5, rushing yards

22v NE2026 week 9
2v CAR2026 week 8
28v DAL2026 week 6
7v CHI2026 week 5
33v MIA2024 week 17
Jordan Mason RB · MIN 44+ rushing yards-111DraftKings

Jordan MasonRB · MINRushing yards

DataPitch 41% · Market 53%

Against this price: Gap -12pp

Under 43.5: -115DraftKings

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated rushing yards
average 42.4, median 36
The line
43.5

His last 5, rushing yards

35v BUF2026 week 9
20v DET2026 week 8
68v IND2026 week 7
59v GB2026 week 1
94v GB2025 week 18
Jordan Love QB · GB 5+ rushing yards-118consensus market price

Jordan LoveQB · GBRushing yards

DataPitch 25% · Market 54%

Against this price: Gap -29pp

Under 4.5: -112consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated rushing yards
average 4.6, median 0
The line
4.5

His last 5, rushing yards

13v NE2026 week 9
0v CAR2026 week 8
0v DET2026 week 7
12v DAL2026 week 6
6v CHI2026 week 5
Kaleb Johnson RB · GB 33+ rushing yards-111DraftKings

Kaleb JohnsonRB · GBRushing yards

DataPitch 19% · Market 53%

Against this price: Gap -34pp

Under 32.5: -114DraftKings

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated rushing yards
average 18.3, median 12
The line
32.5

His last 5, rushing yards

68v NE2026 week 9
-2v DAL2026 week 6
26v CHI2026 week 5
42v TB2026 week 4
6v ATL2026 week 3
Savion Williams WR · GB 4+ rushing yards-116Bet365

Savion WilliamsWR · GBRushing yards

DataPitch 8% · Market 54%

Against this price: Gap -46pp

Under 3.5: -116Bet365

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated rushing yards
average 1.2, median 0
The line
3.5

His last 5, rushing yards

13v NE2026 week 9
18v CAR2026 week 8
4v DET2026 week 7
9v DAL2026 week 6
9v CHI2025 week 16
Passing yards1
Jordan Love QB · GB 258+ passing yards-116Bet365

Jordan LoveQB · GBPassing yards

DataPitch 22% · Market 54%

Against this price: Gap -32pp

Under 257.5: -116Bet365

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated passing yards
average 207.2, median 202
The line
257.5

His last 5, passing yards

349v NE2026 week 9
288v CAR2026 week 8
264v DET2026 week 7
261v DAL2026 week 6
360v CHI2026 week 5

Every price is a captured market quote in American odds, labelled as such; our percentage and the gap to the market's sit behind the row's tap. A row's colour is our number against the price: green means we rate the row's own selection well above what the price says, red means the price rates it more than we do, white means the two are close. A row's last five counts his last five games in this market, most recent first, regular season and playoffs.

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