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Miami Dolphins at Indianapolis Colts

Week 10 · Sun Nov 15, 1:00 PM ET · Market line IND -3.5 · total 38.5

Our read on this game

2 of the 14 rows we price on this game are strong tonight, and all of them are Indianapolis Colts players.

Strongest of themJonathan TaylorRB · IND19+ receiving yards-116Bet365

Prices taken Wed 11 Nov, 17:56 UK.

Every market we price

Called before kickoff: 2. Pending 2.

14 rows on 4 markets, best first: tap a market to open it, tap a player for his numbers, the price behind his and what our read rests on.

Oddsto

14 players across every market.

Receiving yards14
Jonathan Taylor RB · IND 19+ receiving yards-116Bet365

Jonathan TaylorRB · INDReceiving yards

DataPitch 74% · Market 54%

Against this price: Gap +20pp

Under 18.5: -116Bet365

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receiving yards
average 36.9, median 32
The line
18.5

His last 5, receiving yards

18v DAL2026 week 9
24v JAX2026 week 8
15v MIN2026 week 7
57v TEN2026 week 6
37v PIT2026 week 5
Tyler Warren TE · IND 46+ receiving yardsno fresh market price in the 2026-11-11 capture; an older price is not shown

Tyler WarrenTE · INDReceiving yards

DataPitch 68%

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receiving yards
average 67.3, median 62
The line
45.5

His last 5, receiving yards

44v DAL2026 week 9
18v JAX2026 week 8
83v PIT2026 week 5
41v WAS2026 week 4
55v HOU2026 week 3
More players (2)
Greg Dulcich TE · MIA 31+ receiving yardsno fresh market price in the 2026-11-11 capture; an older price is not shown

Greg DulcichTE · MIAReceiving yards

DataPitch 40%

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receiving yards
average 30.1, median 24
The line
30.5

His last 5, receiving yards

14v DET2026 week 9
43v NE2026 week 8
86v NYJ2026 week 7
37v CIN2026 week 5
55v KC2026 week 3
Malik Washington WR · MIA 28+ receiving yardsno fresh market price in the 2026-11-11 capture; an older price is not shown

Malik WashingtonWR · MIAReceiving yards

DataPitch 26%

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receiving yards
average 19.8, median 15
The line
27.5

His last 5, receiving yards

21v DET2026 week 9
40v NE2026 week 8
27v NYJ2026 week 7
43v CIN2026 week 5
67v MIN2026 week 4
Receptions14
Tyler Warren TE · IND 5+ receptions-141Bet365

Tyler WarrenTE · INDReceptions

DataPitch 72% · Market 59%

Against this price: Gap +13pp

Under 4.5: +110Bet365

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receptions
average 6.4, median 6
The line
4.5

His last 5, receptions

4v DAL2026 week 9
4v JAX2026 week 8
7v PIT2026 week 5
5v WAS2026 week 4
9v HOU2026 week 3
Jonathan Taylor RB · IND 4+ receptions+130Bet365

Jonathan TaylorRB · INDReceptions

DataPitch 59% · Market 44%

Against this price: Gap +15pp

Under 3.5: -167Bet365

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receptions
average 4.4, median 4
The line
3.5

His last 5, receptions

5v DAL2026 week 9
4v JAX2026 week 8
2v MIN2026 week 7
2v TEN2026 week 6
3v PIT2026 week 5
More players (2)
Greg Dulcich TE · MIA 4+ receptions+115Bet365

Greg DulcichTE · MIAReceptions

DataPitch 28% · Market 47%

Against this price: Gap -19pp

Under 3.5: -147Bet365

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receptions
average 2.6, median 2
The line
3.5

His last 5, receptions

2v DET2026 week 9
4v NE2026 week 8
5v NYJ2026 week 7
4v CIN2026 week 5
5v KC2026 week 3
Malik Washington WR · MIA 3+ receptions-161Bet365

Malik WashingtonWR · MIAReceptions

DataPitch 37% · Market 62%

Against this price: Gap -25pp

Under 2.5: +125Bet365

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receptions
average 2.2, median 2
The line
2.5

His last 5, receptions

2v DET2026 week 9
5v NE2026 week 8
3v NYJ2026 week 7
6v CIN2026 week 5
5v MIN2026 week 4
Rushing yards5
Jonathan Taylor RB · IND 65+ rushing yards-116Bet365

Jonathan TaylorRB · INDRushing yards

DataPitch 40% · Market 54%

Against this price: Gap -14pp

Under 64.5: -116Bet365

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated rushing yards
average 60.8, median 55
The line
64.5

His last 5, rushing yards

46v DAL2026 week 9
23v JAX2026 week 8
95v MIN2026 week 7
94v TEN2026 week 6
45v PIT2026 week 5
Daniel Jones QB · IND 10+ rushing yards-116Bet365

Daniel JonesQB · INDRushing yards

DataPitch 27% · Market 54%

Against this price: Gap -27pp

Under 9.5: -116Bet365

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated rushing yards
average 7.8, median 3
The line
9.5

His last 5, rushing yards

11v DAL2026 week 9
7v JAX2026 week 8
13v MIN2026 week 7
30v TEN2026 week 6
4v PIT2026 week 5
More players (3)
Ollie Gordon II RB · MIA 74+ rushing yardsno fresh market price in the 2026-11-11 capture; an older price is not shown

Ollie Gordon IIRB · MIARushing yards

DataPitch 30%

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated rushing yards
average 59.8, median 54
The line
73.5

His last 5, rushing yards

55v DET2026 week 9
69v NE2026 week 8
103v NYJ2026 week 7
88v CIN2026 week 5
100v MIN2026 week 4
Malik Willis QB · MIA 25+ rushing yardsno fresh market price in the 2026-11-11 capture; an older price is not shown

Malik WillisQB · MIARushing yards

DataPitch 29%

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated rushing yards
average 18.7, median 11
The line
24.5

His last 5, rushing yards

7v DET2026 week 9
2v NE2026 week 8
37v NYJ2026 week 7
74v CIN2026 week 5
11v MIN2026 week 4
Seth McGowan RB · IND 34+ rushing yardsno fresh market price in the 2026-11-11 capture; an older price is not shown

Seth McGowanRB · INDRushing yards

DataPitch 22%

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated rushing yards
average 21, median 14
The line
33.5

His last 5, rushing yards

45v DAL2026 week 9
29v JAX2026 week 8
46v MIN2026 week 7
27v TEN2026 week 6
16v PIT2026 week 5
Passing yards1
Daniel Jones QB · IND 185+ passing yardsno fresh market price in the 2026-11-11 capture; an older price is not shown

Daniel JonesQB · INDPassing yards

DataPitch 55%

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated passing yards
average 197.1, median 192
The line
184.5

His last 5, passing yards

166v DAL2026 week 9
136v JAX2026 week 8
64v MIN2026 week 7
234v TEN2026 week 6
266v PIT2026 week 5

Every price is a captured market quote in American odds, labelled as such; our percentage and the gap to the market's sit behind the row's tap. A row's colour is our number against the price: green means we rate the row's own selection well above what the price says, red means the price rates it more than we do, white means the two are close. A row's last five counts his last five games in this market, most recent first, regular season and playoffs.

Around this game

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