Bills season simulation and futures prices

Bills

Our numbers from 20,000 simulated seasons, pulled toward the market, then a slider to build your own.

Win the Super Bowl+903DataPitch 11%Market 10% · Gap +1pp

Win the conference+389DataPitch 21%Market 20% · Gap +1pp

Win the division-202DataPitch 68%Market 67% · Gap +1pp

Make the playoffs-1204DataPitch 93%Market 92% · Gap +1pp

Expected wins12.2Market 7.4EXCHANGE

Season series

Who wins the two meetings this year. Both games are in every simulated season.

vs Miami DolphinsGap +15pp-159EXCHANGE

vs New York JetsGap +0pp-146EXCHANGE

These move with the team prices above. Drag the win total below.

Passing yards leaderQB

Josh AllenBUF+848

DataPitch 3%Market 11%Gap -7pp

Our own projection.

Rushing yards leaderRB

James CookBUF+489

DataPitch 6%Market 17%Gap -11pp

Our own projection.

Most Valuable PlayerQB

Josh AllenBUF+450

Market +450

The market's own price. We only move it with the scenario.

Drag the win total, or force two or three results below. Everything above reprices off the same simulated seasons.

Win total: 12.2

Ranked by how much each game actually swings this team's playoff price. Pick up to 3.

vs Texans leverage 95pp

vs Lions leverage 95pp

vs Chargers leverage 95pp

vs Patriots leverage 95pp

vs Rams leverage 95pp

vs Raiders leverage 95pp

vs Jets leverage 11pp

vs Dolphins leverage 11pp

Advanced: force a playoff path

Bills reaches a stage of the postseason, not just wins one game. Combines with the win total and forced games above. Pick one, or none.