← Props Picker, this week's games
at

Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Carolina Panthers

Week 7 · Sun Oct 25, 1:00 PM ET · Market line CAR -3.5 · total 44.5

Our read on this game

Nothing on this game is strong enough to back tonight. Every market we price is still below, each row with the market's own price and what our read rests on.

Strongest of themDarren WallerTE · CAR22+ receiving yards-115consensus market price

Prices taken Wed 21 Oct, 23:43 UK. 2 rows on this game carry a doubtful man, marked on the row and with the reason behind its tap.

Every market we price

17 rows on 4 markets, best first: tap a market to open it, tap a player for his numbers, the price behind his and what our read rests on.

Oddsto

17 players across every market.

Receiving yards6
Darren Waller TE · CAR 22+ receiving yards-115consensus market price

Darren WallerTE · CARReceiving yards

DataPitch 57% · Market 54%

Against this price: Gap +3pp

Under 21.5: -110consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receiving yards
average 31.7, median 26
The line
21.5

His last 5, receiving yards

0v PHI2026 week 6
36v DET2026 week 4
51v CLE2026 week 3
33v ATL2026 week 2
28v CHI2026 week 1
Chuba Hubbard RB · CAR 13+ receiving yards-114consensus market price

Chuba HubbardRB · CARReceiving yards

DataPitch 44% · Market 53%

Against this price: Gap -9pp

Under 12.5: -115consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receiving yards
average 15.7, median 11
The line
12.5

His last 5, receiving yards

1v PHI2026 week 6
7v DET2026 week 4
28v CLE2026 week 3
11v ATL2026 week 2
38v CHI2026 week 1
More players (4)
Tommy Tremble TE · CAR 17+ receiving yards-116consensus market price

Tommy TrembleTE · CARReceiving yards

DataPitch 39% · Market 54%

Against this price: Gap -15pp

Under 16.5: -111consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receiving yards
average 16.7, median 12
The line
16.5

His last 5, receiving yards

46v PHI2026 week 6
12v DET2026 week 4
41v CLE2026 week 3
4v ATL2026 week 2
25v CHI2026 week 1
Jalen Coker WR · CAR 68+ receiving yards-115consensus market price

Jalen CokerWR · CARReceiving yards

DataPitch 30% · Market 54%

Against this price: Gap -24pp

Under 67.5: -114consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receiving yards
average 53.4, median 48
The line
67.5

His last 5, receiving yards

97v PHI2026 week 6
18v CLE2026 week 3
66v ATL2026 week 2
138v CHI2026 week 1
134v LA2025 week 19
Tetairoa McMillan WR · CAR 70+ receiving yards-115consensus market price

Tetairoa McMillanWR · CARReceiving yards

DataPitch 25% · Market 54%

Against this price: Gap -29pp

Under 69.5: -115consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receiving yards
average 49.9, median 44
The line
69.5

His last 5, receiving yards

86v PHI2026 week 6
192v DET2026 week 4
17v CLE2026 week 3
101v ATL2026 week 2
75v CHI2026 week 1
Emeka Egbuka WR · TB 41+ receiving yardsno fresh market price in the 2026-10-21 capture; an older price is not shown

Emeka EgbukaWR · TBReceiving yards

DataPitch 49%

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receiving yards
average 46.2, median 40
The line
40.5

His last 5, receiving yards

48v PIT2026 week 6
38v DAL2026 week 5
13v GB2026 week 4
62v MIN2026 week 3
16v CLE2026 week 2
Receptions5
Darren Waller TE · CAR 3+ receptions+120consensus market price

Darren WallerTE · CARReceptions

DataPitch 41% · Market 46%

Against this price: Gap -5pp

Under 2.5: -160consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receptions
average 2.4, median 2
The line
2.5

His last 5, receptions

0v PHI2026 week 6
3v DET2026 week 4
5v CLE2026 week 3
3v ATL2026 week 2
2v CHI2026 week 1
Chuba Hubbard RB · CAR 3+ receptions+134consensus market price

Chuba HubbardRB · CARReceptions

DataPitch 28% · Market 43%

Against this price: Gap -15pp

Under 2.5: -180consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receptions
average 1.8, median 2
The line
2.5

His last 5, receptions

1v PHI2026 week 6
1v DET2026 week 4
4v CLE2026 week 3
2v ATL2026 week 2
3v CHI2026 week 1
More players (3)
Tommy Tremble TE · CAR 3+ receptions+132consensus market price

Tommy TrembleTE · CARReceptions

DataPitch 27% · Market 43%

Against this price: Gap -16pp

Under 2.5: -177consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receptions
average 1.8, median 1
The line
2.5

His last 5, receptions

4v PHI2026 week 6
4v DET2026 week 4
3v CLE2026 week 3
1v ATL2026 week 2
3v CHI2026 week 1
Jalen Coker WR · CAR 6+ receptions-105consensus market price

Jalen CokerWR · CARReceptions

DataPitch 22% · Market 51%

Against this price: Gap -29pp

Under 5.5: -125consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receptions
average 3.8, median 4
The line
5.5

His last 5, receptions

6v PHI2026 week 6
2v CLE2026 week 3
8v ATL2026 week 2
8v CHI2026 week 1
9v LA2025 week 19
Tetairoa McMillan WR · CAR 6+ receptions+109consensus market price

Tetairoa McMillanWR · CARReceptions

DataPitch 15% · Market 48%

Against this price: Gap -33pp

Under 5.5: -141consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receptions
average 3.3, median 3
The line
5.5

His last 5, receptions

6v PHI2026 week 6
14v DET2026 week 4
2v CLE2026 week 3
5v ATL2026 week 2
5v CHI2026 week 1
Rushing yards4
Bucky Irving RB · TB 66+ rushing yards-115consensus market price

Bucky IrvingRB · TBRushing yards

DataPitch 45% · Market 54%

Against this price: Gap -9pp

Under 65.5: -114consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated rushing yards
average 66.8, median 61
The line
65.5

His last 5, rushing yards

46v PIT2026 week 6
165v DAL2026 week 5
61v GB2026 week 4
46v MIN2026 week 3
89v CLE2026 week 2
Chuba Hubbard RB · CAR 71+ rushing yards-115consensus market price

Chuba HubbardRB · CARRushing yards

DataPitch 42% · Market 54%

Against this price: Gap -12pp

Under 70.5: -114consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated rushing yards
average 69, median 63
The line
70.5

His last 5, rushing yards

120v PHI2026 week 6
122v DET2026 week 4
82v CLE2026 week 3
53v ATL2026 week 2
49v CHI2026 week 1
More players (2)
Bryce Young QB · CAR 11+ rushing yards-112consensus market price

Bryce YoungQB · CARRushing yards

DataPitch 41% · Market 53%

Against this price: Gap -12pp

Under 10.5: -115consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated rushing yards
average 12.8, median 7
The line
10.5

His last 5, rushing yards

6v PHI2026 week 6
3v DET2026 week 4
0v CLE2026 week 3
6v ATL2026 week 2
10v CHI2026 week 1
DoubtfulBaker Mayfield QB · TB 17+ rushing yards-114consensus market price

Baker MayfieldQB · TBRushing yards

Doubtful: Questionable: Thumb - Questionable for Week 7 at Carolina

DataPitch 30% · Market 53%

Against this price: Gap -23pp

Under 16.5: -114consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated rushing yards
average 13.7, median 7
The line
16.5

His last 5, rushing yards

6v MIN2026 week 3
29v CLE2026 week 2
30v CIN2026 week 1
31v CAR2025 week 18
16v MIA2025 week 17
Passing yards2
DoubtfulBaker Mayfield QB · TB 216+ passing yards-113consensus market price

Baker MayfieldQB · TBPassing yards

Doubtful: Questionable: Thumb - Questionable for Week 7 at Carolina

DataPitch 46% · Market 53%

Against this price: Gap -7pp

Under 215.5: -114consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated passing yards
average 213.4, median 209
The line
215.5

His last 5, passing yards

186v MIN2026 week 3
176v CLE2026 week 2
193v CIN2026 week 1
198v CAR2025 week 18
327v MIA2025 week 17
Bryce Young QB · CAR 254+ passing yards-114consensus market price

Bryce YoungQB · CARPassing yards

DataPitch 16% · Market 53%

Against this price: Gap -37pp

Under 253.5: -115consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated passing yards
average 189.1, median 183
The line
253.5

His last 5, passing yards

273v PHI2026 week 6
318v DET2026 week 4
262v CLE2026 week 3
272v ATL2026 week 2
353v CHI2026 week 1

Every price is a captured market quote in American odds, labelled as such; our percentage and the gap to the market's sit behind the row's tap. A row's colour is our number against the price: green means we like him to go over well beyond what the price says, red means the price likes him more than we do, white means the two are close. A row's last five counts his last five games in this market, most recent first, regular season and playoffs.

Around this game

Week 7 NFL player props, every gameCarolina Panthers season simulation and futures pricesTampa Bay Buccaneers season simulation and futures pricesWeek 6 resultsEvery NFL futures price on the Futures SimulatorHow the simulator works

Other week 7 games

New England Patriots at Chicago Bears player propsPittsburgh Steelers at New Orleans Saints player propsCincinnati Bengals at Baltimore Ravens player propsCleveland Browns at Tennessee Titans player propsIndianapolis Colts at Minnesota Vikings player propsMiami Dolphins at New York Jets player props

Also from DataPitch

Futures SimulatorLock a result, re-run the season, and every price re-reads.Pregame PicksToday's fixtures, every player market we price, re-priced to your own numbers.In-Play AlertsCustomised in-play alerts on football player props: pick a player's shots, shots on target, fouls or cards, change the numbers, and the card lands in your Telegram while the match is on, priced when we hold live odds.GuidesPlain-word explainers on futures, player props, in-play alerts and the scenario tool.
Live Drive AlertsThe NFL watched live, with alerts on the markets we price in play.Upcoming