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San Francisco 49ers at Atlanta Falcons

Week 7 · Sun Oct 25, 1:00 PM ET · Market line ATL +3.5 · total 49.5

Our read on this game

6 of the 17 rows we price on this game are strong tonight, and they split evenly between the two sides.

Strongest of themKyle Pitts Sr.TE · ATL4+ receptions+102consensus market price

Prices taken Wed 21 Oct, 23:43 UK.

Every market we price

Called before kickoff: 6. Pending 6.

17 rows on 4 markets, best first: tap a market to open it, tap a player for his numbers, the price behind his and what our read rests on.

Oddsto

17 players across every market.

Receiving yards36
Kyle Pitts Sr. TE · ATL 36+ receiving yards-113consensus market price

Kyle Pitts Sr.TE · ATLReceiving yards

DataPitch 73% · Market 53%

Against this price: Gap +20pp

Under 35.5: -116consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receiving yards
average 59.9, median 55
The line
35.5

His last 5, receiving yards

60v CHI2026 week 6
42v BAL2026 week 5
47v NO2026 week 4
5v GB2026 week 3
15v CAR2026 week 2
Bijan Robinson RB · ATL 26+ receiving yards-115consensus market price

Bijan RobinsonRB · ATLReceiving yards

DataPitch 67% · Market 54%

Against this price: Gap +13pp

Under 25.5: -114consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receiving yards
average 41.3, median 36
The line
25.5

His last 5, receiving yards

-8v CHI2026 week 6
32v BAL2026 week 5
2v NO2026 week 4
19v GB2026 week 3
9v CAR2026 week 2
More players (4)
Christian McCaffrey RB · SF 45+ receiving yards-114consensus market price

Christian McCaffreyRB · SFReceiving yards

DataPitch 62% · Market 53%

Against this price: Gap +9pp

Under 44.5: -122consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receiving yards
average 57.8, median 53
The line
44.5

His last 5, receiving yards

53v WAS2026 week 6
15v SEA2026 week 5
18v DEN2026 week 4
41v ARI2026 week 3
43v MIA2026 week 2
George Kittle TE · SF 70+ receiving yards-111consensus market price

George KittleTE · SFReceiving yards

DataPitch 53% · Market 53%

Against this price: Gap +0pp

Under 69.5: -114consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receiving yards
average 78.5, median 73
The line
69.5

His last 5, receiving yards

69v WAS2026 week 6
24v SEA2026 week 5
70v DEN2026 week 4
82v ARI2026 week 3
80v MIA2026 week 2
Jahan Dotson WR · ATL 29+ receiving yards-115consensus market price

Jahan DotsonWR · ATLReceiving yards

DataPitch 42% · Market 54%

Against this price: Gap -12pp

Under 28.5: -113consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receiving yards
average 28.6, median 23
The line
28.5

His last 5, receiving yards

87v CHI2026 week 6
54v BAL2026 week 5
54v NO2026 week 4
11v GB2026 week 3
11v CAR2026 week 2
Drake London WR · ATL 83+ receiving yards-114consensus market price

Drake LondonWR · ATLReceiving yards

DataPitch 28% · Market 53%

Against this price: Gap -25pp

Under 82.5: -114consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receiving yards
average 64, median 59
The line
82.5

His last 5, receiving yards

62v CHI2026 week 6
118v BAL2026 week 5
96v NO2026 week 4
194v GB2026 week 3
51v CAR2026 week 2
Receptions36
Kyle Pitts Sr. TE · ATL 4+ receptions+102consensus market price

Kyle Pitts Sr.TE · ATLReceptions

DataPitch 79% · Market 50%

Against this price: Gap +29pp

Under 3.5: -132consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receptions
average 5.9, median 6
The line
3.5

His last 5, receptions

5v CHI2026 week 6
5v BAL2026 week 5
3v NO2026 week 4
1v GB2026 week 3
1v CAR2026 week 2
George Kittle TE · SF 6+ receptions-110consensus market price

George KittleTE · SFReceptions

DataPitch 68% · Market 52%

Against this price: Gap +16pp

Under 5.5: -120consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receptions
average 7.2, median 7
The line
5.5

His last 5, receptions

5v WAS2026 week 6
5v SEA2026 week 5
4v DEN2026 week 4
6v ARI2026 week 3
4v MIA2026 week 2
More players (4)
Christian McCaffrey RB · SF 6+ receptions+105consensus market price

Christian McCaffreyRB · SFReceptions

DataPitch 62% · Market 49%

Against this price: Gap +13pp

Under 5.5: -139consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receptions
average 6.8, median 6
The line
5.5

His last 5, receptions

9v WAS2026 week 6
3v SEA2026 week 5
3v DEN2026 week 4
4v ARI2026 week 3
4v MIA2026 week 2
Bijan Robinson RB · ATL 4+ receptions-156consensus market price

Bijan RobinsonRB · ATLReceptions

DataPitch 64% · Market 61%

Against this price: Gap +3pp

Under 3.5: +118consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receptions
average 4.7, median 4
The line
3.5

His last 5, receptions

2v CHI2026 week 6
4v BAL2026 week 5
1v NO2026 week 4
2v GB2026 week 3
3v CAR2026 week 2
Jahan Dotson WR · ATL 3+ receptions+135consensus market price

Jahan DotsonWR · ATLReceptions

DataPitch 34% · Market 43%

Against this price: Gap -9pp

Under 2.5: -179consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receptions
average 2.1, median 2
The line
2.5

His last 5, receptions

3v CHI2026 week 6
2v BAL2026 week 5
2v NO2026 week 4
1v GB2026 week 3
2v CAR2026 week 2
Drake London WR · ATL 6+ receptions-143consensus market price

Drake LondonWR · ATLReceptions

DataPitch 35% · Market 59%

Against this price: Gap -24pp

Under 5.5: +110consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receptions
average 4.8, median 5
The line
5.5

His last 5, receptions

4v CHI2026 week 6
7v BAL2026 week 5
5v NO2026 week 4
9v GB2026 week 3
4v CAR2026 week 2
Rushing yards4
Michael Penix Jr. QB · ATL 2+ rushing yards-115consensus market price

Michael Penix Jr.QB · ATLRushing yards

DataPitch 47% · Market 54%

Against this price: Gap -7pp

Under 1.5: -115consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated rushing yards
average 7.3, median 1
The line
1.5

His last 5, rushing yards

1v CHI2026 week 6
8v BAL2026 week 5
-2v NO2026 week 4
-2v GB2026 week 3
9v CAR2025 week 11
Brian Robinson RB · ATL 27+ rushing yards-115consensus market price

Brian RobinsonRB · ATLRushing yards

DataPitch 43% · Market 54%

Against this price: Gap -11pp

Under 26.5: -112consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated rushing yards
average 29.2, median 23
The line
26.5

His last 5, rushing yards

1v CHI2026 week 6
16v BAL2026 week 5
62v NO2026 week 4
50v GB2026 week 3
51v CAR2026 week 2
More players (2)
Christian McCaffrey RB · SF 60+ rushing yards-115consensus market price

Christian McCaffreyRB · SFRushing yards

DataPitch 43% · Market 54%

Against this price: Gap -11pp

Under 59.5: -115consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated rushing yards
average 58.7, median 53
The line
59.5

His last 5, rushing yards

64v WAS2026 week 6
68v SEA2026 week 5
52v DEN2026 week 4
75v ARI2026 week 3
23v MIA2026 week 2
Bijan Robinson RB · ATL 84+ rushing yards-114consensus market price

Bijan RobinsonRB · ATLRushing yards

DataPitch 41% · Market 53%

Against this price: Gap -12pp

Under 83.5: -114consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated rushing yards
average 80.4, median 75
The line
83.5

His last 5, rushing yards

61v CHI2026 week 6
86v BAL2026 week 5
145v NO2026 week 4
194v GB2026 week 3
72v CAR2026 week 2
Passing yards1
Michael Penix Jr. QB · ATL 231+ passing yards-113consensus market price

Michael Penix Jr.QB · ATLPassing yards

DataPitch 36% · Market 53%

Against this price: Gap -17pp

Under 230.5: -112consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated passing yards
average 210.4, median 206
The line
230.5

His last 5, passing yards

198v CHI2026 week 6
223v BAL2026 week 5
215v NO2026 week 4
258v GB2026 week 3
175v CAR2025 week 11

Every price is a captured market quote in American odds, labelled as such; our percentage and the gap to the market's sit behind the row's tap. A row's colour is our number against the price: green means we like him to go over well beyond what the price says, red means the price likes him more than we do, white means the two are close. A row's last five counts his last five games in this market, most recent first, regular season and playoffs.

Around this game

Week 7 NFL player props, every gameAtlanta Falcons season simulation and futures pricesSan Francisco 49ers season simulation and futures pricesWeek 6 resultsEvery NFL futures price on the Futures SimulatorHow the simulator works

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