Saints season simulation and futures prices

Saints

Our numbers from 20,000 simulated seasons, pulled toward the market, then a slider to build your own.

Win the Super Bowl+18082DataPitch <1%Market 1% · Gap -1pp

Do not win the conference-10417DataPitch 99%Market 99% · Gap +0pp

Do not win the division-471DataPitch 83%Market 82% · Gap +1pp

Miss the playoffs-388DataPitch 81%Market 80% · Gap +1pp

Expected wins6.8Market 5.0EXCHANGE

Season series

Who wins the two meetings this year. Both games are in every simulated season.

vs Carolina PanthersGap -3pp+359EXCHANGE

vs Tampa Bay BuccaneersGap +8pp+689EXCHANGE

These move with the team prices above. Drag the win total below.

Passing yards leaderQB

Tyler ShoughNO+1962

DataPitch 3%Market 5%Gap -2pp

Our own projection.

Rushing yards leaderRB

Travis EtienneNOn/a

Market n/a

Our own projection.

Rushing yards leaderRB

Alvin KamaraNOn/a

Market n/a

Our own projection.

Receiving yards leaderWR

Chris OlaveNO+529

DataPitch 2%Market 16%Gap -14pp

Our own projection.

Drag the win total, or force two or three results below. Everything above reprices off the same simulated seasons.

Win total: 6.8

Ranked by how much each game actually swings this team's playoff price. Pick up to 3.

vs Panthers leverage 27pp

vs Panthers leverage 24pp

vs Falcons leverage 19pp

vs Lions leverage 19pp

vs Ravens leverage 19pp

vs Raiders leverage 19pp

vs Falcons leverage 19pp

vs Vikings leverage 19pp

Advanced: force a playoff path

Saints reaches a stage of the postseason, not just wins one game. Combines with the win total and forced games above. Pick one, or none.