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Green Bay Packers at Detroit Lions

Week 7 · Sun Oct 25, 4:25 PM ET · Market line DET -3 · total 53.5

Our read on this game

1 of the 23 rows we price on this game is strong tonight.

Strongest of themMarShawn LloydRB · GB17+ rushing yards-115consensus market price

Prices taken Wed 21 Oct, 23:43 UK.

Every market we price

Called before kickoff: 1. Pending 1.

23 rows on 4 markets, best first: tap a market to open it, tap a player for his numbers, the price behind his and what our read rests on.

Oddsto

23 players across every market.

Receiving yards8
Tucker Kraft TE · GB 49+ receiving yards-115consensus market price

Tucker KraftTE · GBReceiving yards

DataPitch 48% · Market 54%

Against this price: Gap -6pp

Under 48.5: -115consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receiving yards
average 53.1, median 47
The line
48.5

His last 5, receiving yards

37v DAL2026 week 6
64v CHI2026 week 5
42v TB2026 week 4
26v ATL2026 week 3
15v NYJ2026 week 2
Christian Watson WR · GB 76+ receiving yards-115consensus market price

Christian WatsonWR · GBReceiving yards

DataPitch 45% · Market 54%

Against this price: Gap -9pp

Under 75.5: -115consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receiving yards
average 76.5, median 69
The line
75.5

His last 5, receiving yards

64v DAL2026 week 6
143v CHI2026 week 5
47v TB2026 week 4
96v ATL2026 week 3
41v NYJ2026 week 2
More players (6)
Amon-Ra St. Brown WR · DET 80+ receiving yards-114consensus market price

Amon-Ra St. BrownWR · DETReceiving yards

DataPitch 38% · Market 53%

Against this price: Gap -15pp

Under 79.5: -115consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receiving yards
average 72.2, median 66
The line
79.5

His last 5, receiving yards

69v ARI2026 week 5
75v CAR2026 week 4
19v NYJ2026 week 3
142v BUF2026 week 2
67v NO2026 week 1
Jameson Williams WR · DET 55+ receiving yards-114consensus market price

Jameson WilliamsWR · DETReceiving yards

DataPitch 35% · Market 53%

Against this price: Gap -18pp

Under 54.5: -115consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receiving yards
average 47.6, median 42
The line
54.5

His last 5, receiving yards

47v ARI2026 week 5
102v CAR2026 week 4
49v NYJ2026 week 3
33v BUF2026 week 2
45v NO2026 week 1
Jahmyr Gibbs RB · DET 39+ receiving yards-114consensus market price

Jahmyr GibbsRB · DETReceiving yards

DataPitch 31% · Market 53%

Against this price: Gap -22pp

Under 38.5: -116consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receiving yards
average 31, median 26
The line
38.5

His last 5, receiving yards

56v ARI2026 week 5
31v CAR2026 week 4
65v NYJ2026 week 3
61v BUF2026 week 2
30v NO2026 week 1
Isaac TeSlaa WR · DET 24+ receiving yards-114consensus market price

Isaac TeSlaaWR · DETReceiving yards

DataPitch 26% · Market 53%

Against this price: Gap -27pp

Under 23.5: -114consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receiving yards
average 16, median 10
The line
23.5

His last 5, receiving yards

0v ARI2026 week 5
95v CAR2026 week 4
66v NYJ2026 week 3
26v BUF2026 week 2
0v NO2026 week 1
Sam LaPorta TE · DET 50+ receiving yards-121consensus market price

Sam LaPortaTE · DETReceiving yards

DataPitch 26% · Market 55%

Against this price: Gap -29pp

Under 49.5: -115consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receiving yards
average 35.7, median 30
The line
49.5

His last 5, receiving yards

88v ARI2026 week 5
84v CAR2026 week 4
44v NYJ2026 week 3
52v BUF2026 week 2
48v NO2026 week 1
Matthew Golden WR · GB 74+ receiving yards-115consensus market price

Matthew GoldenWR · GBReceiving yards

DataPitch 21% · Market 54%

Against this price: Gap -33pp

Under 73.5: -111consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receiving yards
average 47.2, median 40
The line
73.5

His last 5, receiving yards

104v DAL2026 week 6
123v CHI2026 week 5
21v TB2026 week 4
100v ATL2026 week 3
58v NYJ2026 week 2
Receptions8
Tucker Kraft TE · GB 5+ receptions+100consensus market price

Tucker KraftTE · GBReceptions

DataPitch 48% · Market 50%

Against this price: Gap -2pp

Under 4.5: -130consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receptions
average 4.7, median 4
The line
4.5

His last 5, receptions

5v DAL2026 week 6
5v CHI2026 week 5
6v TB2026 week 4
4v ATL2026 week 3
2v NYJ2026 week 2
Christian Watson WR · GB 5+ receptions-114consensus market price

Christian WatsonWR · GBReceptions

DataPitch 37% · Market 53%

Against this price: Gap -16pp

Under 4.5: -110consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receptions
average 4, median 4
The line
4.5

His last 5, receptions

3v DAL2026 week 6
6v CHI2026 week 5
3v TB2026 week 4
7v ATL2026 week 3
4v NYJ2026 week 2
More players (6)
Jameson Williams WR · DET 4+ receptions-141consensus market price

Jameson WilliamsWR · DETReceptions

DataPitch 38% · Market 59%

Against this price: Gap -21pp

Under 3.5: +109consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receptions
average 3.2, median 3
The line
3.5

His last 5, receptions

2v ARI2026 week 5
6v CAR2026 week 4
4v NYJ2026 week 3
2v BUF2026 week 2
4v NO2026 week 1
Amon-Ra St. Brown WR · DET 8+ receptions-106consensus market price

Amon-Ra St. BrownWR · DETReceptions

DataPitch 24% · Market 52%

Against this price: Gap -28pp

Under 7.5: -120consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receptions
average 5.7, median 5
The line
7.5

His last 5, receptions

6v ARI2026 week 5
8v CAR2026 week 4
4v NYJ2026 week 3
9v BUF2026 week 2
10v NO2026 week 1
Jahmyr Gibbs RB · DET 5+ receptions-152consensus market price

Jahmyr GibbsRB · DETReceptions

DataPitch 33% · Market 60%

Against this price: Gap -27pp

Under 4.5: +115consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receptions
average 3.7, median 3
The line
4.5

His last 5, receptions

5v ARI2026 week 5
4v CAR2026 week 4
7v NYJ2026 week 3
6v BUF2026 week 2
5v NO2026 week 1
Isaac TeSlaa WR · DET 2+ receptions-150consensus market price

Isaac TeSlaaWR · DETReceptions

DataPitch 31% · Market 60%

Against this price: Gap -29pp

Under 1.5: +110consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receptions
average 1.1, median 1
The line
1.5

His last 5, receptions

0v ARI2026 week 5
4v CAR2026 week 4
3v NYJ2026 week 3
2v BUF2026 week 2
0v NO2026 week 1
Sam LaPorta TE · DET 5+ receptions-159consensus market price

Sam LaPortaTE · DETReceptions

DataPitch 28% · Market 61%

Against this price: Gap -33pp

Under 4.5: +120consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receptions
average 3.5, median 3
The line
4.5

His last 5, receptions

5v ARI2026 week 5
8v CAR2026 week 4
3v NYJ2026 week 3
6v BUF2026 week 2
5v NO2026 week 1
Matthew Golden WR · GB 6+ receptions+113consensus market price

Matthew GoldenWR · GBReceptions

DataPitch 11% · Market 47%

Against this price: Gap -36pp

Under 5.5: -150consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receptions
average 3, median 3
The line
5.5

His last 5, receptions

6v DAL2026 week 6
6v CHI2026 week 5
3v TB2026 week 4
5v ATL2026 week 3
4v NYJ2026 week 2
Rushing yards16
MarShawn Lloyd RB · GB 17+ rushing yards-115consensus market price

MarShawn LloydRB · GBRushing yards

DataPitch 75% · Market 54%

Against this price: Gap +21pp

Under 16.5: -114consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated rushing yards
average 39, median 32
The line
16.5

His last 5, rushing yards

10v DAL2026 week 6
31v CHI2026 week 5
13v TB2026 week 4
11v ATL2026 week 3
20v NYJ2026 week 2
Pierre Strong Jr. RB · GB 11+ rushing yards-115consensus market price

Pierre Strong Jr.RB · GBRushing yards

DataPitch 81% · Market 54%

Against this price: Gap +27pp

Under 10.5: -114consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated rushing yards
average 35.7, median 29
The line
10.5

His last 5, rushing yards

28v DAL2026 week 6
7v CHI2026 week 5
33v MIA2024 week 17
6v CIN2024 week 16
0v KC2024 week 15
More players (4)
Jared Goff QB · DET 1+ rushing yards-109consensus market price

Jared GoffQB · DETRushing yards

DataPitch 47% · Market 52%

Against this price: Gap -5pp

Under 0.5: -120consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated rushing yards
average 5.8, median 0
The line
0.5

His last 5, rushing yards

1v ARI2026 week 5
0v CAR2026 week 4
6v NYJ2026 week 3
7v BUF2026 week 2
2v NO2026 week 1
Sione Vaki RB · DET 9+ rushing yards-114consensus market price

Sione VakiRB · DETRushing yards

DataPitch 41% · Market 53%

Against this price: Gap -12pp

Under 8.5: -116consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated rushing yards
average 11.3, median 5
The line
8.5

His last 5, rushing yards

11v ARI2026 week 5
0v CAR2026 week 4
26v NYJ2026 week 3
7v BUF2026 week 2
7v NO2026 week 1
Jahmyr Gibbs RB · DET 94+ rushing yards-115consensus market price

Jahmyr GibbsRB · DETRushing yards

DataPitch 31% · Market 54%

Against this price: Gap -23pp

Under 93.5: -114consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated rushing yards
average 78.6, median 73
The line
93.5

His last 5, rushing yards

151v ARI2026 week 5
46v CAR2026 week 4
99v NYJ2026 week 3
52v BUF2026 week 2
156v NO2026 week 1
Savion Williams WR · GB 3+ rushing yardsno fresh market price in the 2026-10-21 capture; an older price is not shown

Savion WilliamsWR · GBRushing yards

DataPitch 7%

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated rushing yards
average 1, median 0
The line
2.5

His last 5, rushing yards

9v DAL2026 week 6
9v CHI2025 week 16
0v MIN2025 week 12
0v NYG2025 week 11
0v PHI2025 week 10
Passing yards1
Jared Goff QB · DET 280+ passing yards-115consensus market price

Jared GoffQB · DETPassing yards

DataPitch 29% · Market 54%

Against this price: Gap -25pp

Under 279.5: -115consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated passing yards
average 243.2, median 238
The line
279.5

His last 5, passing yards

249v ARI2026 week 5
406v CAR2026 week 4
250v NYJ2026 week 3
289v BUF2026 week 2
204v NO2026 week 1

Every price is a captured market quote in American odds, labelled as such; our percentage and the gap to the market's sit behind the row's tap. A row's colour is our number against the price: green means we like him to go over well beyond what the price says, red means the price likes him more than we do, white means the two are close. A row's last five counts his last five games in this market, most recent first, regular season and playoffs.

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