84 captures so far, 2026-08-17 to 2026-11-13. Every point is de-vigged; a bookmaker point is the consensus of the books quoting this runner that day.
Settles: End of the 2026 regular season. Market-consistent, prices as of 2026-11-10T12:00:15+00:00.
-171 on the board against our 71 percent once we shrink toward the market, a gap of +8.1 points. The season runs out at 11.0 wins on average with a good case of 14 across 20,000 simulated seasons. It is a watch, not a bet: the season previews lean the other way overall, so the story contradicts the number.
Sim it yourself →Board run Tue Nov 10, 7:03 AM ET
