Every price below is the latest we hold (book if any, else exchange). A dot marks a positive gap: our simulated probability above that price's implied one. The exact gap is on each row's own page.

Every super bowl price is on each team's own page. Nothing there is far enough from the market to flag today.

Every conference price is on each team's own page. Nothing there is far enough from the market to flag today.

Every division price is on each team's own page. Nothing there is far enough from the market to flag today.

Every playoffs price is on each team's own page. Nothing there is far enough from the market to flag today.

Every series price is on each team's own page. Nothing there is far enough from the market to flag today.

Every win totals price is on each team's own page. Nothing there is far enough from the market to flag today.

On our radar (4)

Close to a back at today's prices. Not on the board yet. The dot marks a positive gap: our simulated probability above the price's implied one.

WATCHNFC East winner

Philadelphia Eagles+154exchange

DataPitch 47%Market 39%Gap +8pp

The 26th hardest schedule of 32, a good deal harder than last season, and we rate them 8th in the league against the market's 1 of 4 here.

+↗

WATCHMake the playoffs

Tampa Bay Buccaneers+139exchange

DataPitch 46%Market 42%Gap +4pp

We see a slightly higher playoff chance than the market because Tampa projects around nine wins with a softer schedule than last year and the best neutral-field power rating in a weak NFC South.

+↗

WATCHNFC North winner

Detroit Lions+186exchange

DataPitch 39%Market 35%Gap +4pp

We rate Detroit slightly higher than the market because a top tier roster facing the easiest schedule in the league makes them more likely to repeat as NFC North winners.

+↗

WATCHAFC North winner

Baltimore Ravens+121exchange

DataPitch 49%Market 45%Gap +4pp

We rate Baltimore slightly higher than the market because a top four roster, an easier schedule and a soft division setup give them more paths to an AFC North title.

+↗

Season series (48)

Both meetings of a divisional pair, counted inside the same simulated season rather than multiplied. No bookmaker lists this market, so every row is a watch.

WATCHDenver Broncos vs Las Vegas Raiders season series

Denver Broncos+194exchange

DataPitch 52%Market 34%Gap +18pp

Both meetings fall in every simulated season: ours have Denver Broncos taking the series 52 times in 100 and the two sides splitting it 38.

+↗

WATCHArizona Cardinals vs Seattle Seahawks season series

Seattle Seahawks-517exchange

DataPitch 70%Market 84%Gap -14pp

Both meetings fall in every simulated season: ours have Seattle Seahawks taking the series 70 times in 100 and the two sides splitting it 26.

+↗

WATCHMiami Dolphins vs New York Jets season series

Split-136exchange

DataPitch 44%Market 58%Gap -14pp

Both meetings fall in every simulated season: ours have New York Jets taking the series 35 times in 100 and the two sides splitting it 44.

+↗

WATCHDenver Broncos vs Los Angeles Chargers season series

Split-118exchange

DataPitch 45%Market 54%Gap -9pp

Both meetings fall in every simulated season: ours have Los Angeles Chargers taking the series 30 times in 100 and the two sides splitting it 45.

+↗

WATCHKansas City Chiefs vs Las Vegas Raiders season series

Kansas City Chiefs-165exchange

DataPitch 54%Market 62%Gap -9pp

Both meetings fall in every simulated season: ours have Kansas City Chiefs taking the series 54 times in 100 and the two sides splitting it 37.

+↗

WATCHCleveland Browns vs Pittsburgh Steelers season series

Pittsburgh Steelers+158exchange

DataPitch 47%Market 39%Gap +9pp

Both meetings fall in every simulated season: ours have Pittsburgh Steelers taking the series 47 times in 100 and the two sides splitting it 40.

+↗

WATCHArizona Cardinals vs Los Angeles Rams season series

Los Angeles Rams-417exchange

DataPitch 73%Market 81%Gap -8pp

Both meetings fall in every simulated season: ours have Los Angeles Rams taking the series 73 times in 100 and the two sides splitting it 24.

+↗

WATCHJacksonville Jaguars vs Tennessee Titans season series

Jacksonville Jaguars+137exchange

DataPitch 50%Market 42%Gap +8pp

Both meetings fall in every simulated season: ours have Jacksonville Jaguars taking the series 50 times in 100 and the two sides splitting it 39.

+↗

WATCHMiami Dolphins vs New England Patriots season series

New England Patriots-231exchange

DataPitch 63%Market 70%Gap -7pp

Both meetings fall in every simulated season: ours have New England Patriots taking the series 63 times in 100 and the two sides splitting it 31.

+↗

WATCHDallas Cowboys vs Philadelphia Eagles season series

Split-108exchange

DataPitch 45%Market 52%Gap -7pp

Both meetings fall in every simulated season: ours have Philadelphia Eagles taking the series 32 times in 100 and the two sides splitting it 45.

+↗

WATCHHouston Texans vs Tennessee Titans season series

Houston Texans+116exchange

DataPitch 53%Market 46%Gap +7pp

Both meetings fall in every simulated season: ours have Houston Texans taking the series 53 times in 100 and the two sides splitting it 37.

+↗

WATCHHouston Texans vs Indianapolis Colts season series

Split+101exchange

DataPitch 43%Market 50%Gap -7pp

Both meetings fall in every simulated season: ours have Houston Texans taking the series 40 times in 100 and the two sides splitting it 43.

+↗

WATCHIndianapolis Colts vs Jacksonville Jaguars season series

Split+100exchange

DataPitch 44%Market 50%Gap -6pp

Both meetings fall in every simulated season: ours have Jacksonville Jaguars taking the series 37 times in 100 and the two sides splitting it 44.

+↗

WATCHCincinnati Bengals vs Cleveland Browns season series

Cincinnati Bengals+106exchange

DataPitch 55%Market 49%Gap +6pp

Both meetings fall in every simulated season: ours have Cincinnati Bengals taking the series 55 times in 100 and the two sides splitting it 36.

+↗

WATCHChicago Bears vs Green Bay Packers season series

Split-102exchange

DataPitch 45%Market 50%Gap -6pp

Both meetings fall in every simulated season: ours have Green Bay Packers taking the series 31 times in 100 and the two sides splitting it 45.

+↗

WATCHNew York Giants vs Philadelphia Eagles season series

Philadelphia Eagles-105exchange

DataPitch 45%Market 51%Gap -6pp

Both meetings fall in every simulated season: ours have Philadelphia Eagles taking the series 45 times in 100 and the two sides splitting it 41.

+↗

WATCHBuffalo Bills vs New England Patriots season series

Split+156exchange

DataPitch 45%Market 39%Gap +6pp

Both meetings fall in every simulated season: ours have Buffalo Bills taking the series 34 times in 100 and the two sides splitting it 45.

+↗

WATCHAtlanta Falcons vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers season series

Split+101exchange

DataPitch 44%Market 50%Gap -6pp

Both meetings fall in every simulated season: ours have Tampa Bay Buccaneers taking the series 37 times in 100 and the two sides splitting it 44.

+↗

WATCHChicago Bears vs Detroit Lions season series

Split-101exchange

DataPitch 45%Market 50%Gap -5pp

Both meetings fall in every simulated season: ours have Detroit Lions taking the series 33 times in 100 and the two sides splitting it 45.

+↗

WATCHKansas City Chiefs vs Los Angeles Chargers season series

Split+101exchange

DataPitch 45%Market 50%Gap -5pp

Both meetings fall in every simulated season: ours have Los Angeles Chargers taking the series 29 times in 100 and the two sides splitting it 45.

+↗

WATCHGreen Bay Packers vs Minnesota Vikings season series

Split+104exchange

DataPitch 44%Market 49%Gap -5pp

Both meetings fall in every simulated season: ours have Green Bay Packers taking the series 35 times in 100 and the two sides splitting it 44.

+↗

WATCHCincinnati Bengals vs Pittsburgh Steelers season series

Split+105exchange

DataPitch 44%Market 49%Gap -5pp

Both meetings fall in every simulated season: ours have Cincinnati Bengals taking the series 34 times in 100 and the two sides splitting it 44.

+↗

WATCHHouston Texans vs Jacksonville Jaguars season series

Split+146exchange

DataPitch 45%Market 41%Gap +5pp

Both meetings fall in every simulated season: ours have Houston Texans taking the series 30 times in 100 and the two sides splitting it 45.

+↗

WATCHIndianapolis Colts vs Tennessee Titans season series

Split+112exchange

DataPitch 43%Market 47%Gap -4pp

Both meetings fall in every simulated season: ours have Indianapolis Colts taking the series 39 times in 100 and the two sides splitting it 43.

+↗

WATCHDallas Cowboys vs New York Giants season series

Split+161exchange

DataPitch 42%Market 38%Gap +4pp

Both meetings fall in every simulated season: ours have Dallas Cowboys taking the series 41 times in 100 and the two sides splitting it 42.

+↗

WATCHNew York Giants vs Washington Commanders season series

Split-100exchange

DataPitch 46%Market 50%Gap -4pp

Both meetings fall in every simulated season: ours have New York Giants taking the series 27 times in 100 and the two sides splitting it 46.

+↗

WATCHNew England Patriots vs New York Jets season series

New England Patriots-142exchange

DataPitch 55%Market 59%Gap -4pp

Both meetings fall in every simulated season: ours have New England Patriots taking the series 55 times in 100 and the two sides splitting it 36.

+↗

WATCHLos Angeles Chargers vs Las Vegas Raiders season series

Los Angeles Chargers-104exchange

DataPitch 55%Market 51%Gap +4pp

Both meetings fall in every simulated season: ours have Los Angeles Chargers taking the series 55 times in 100 and the two sides splitting it 36.

+↗

WATCHAtlanta Falcons vs New Orleans Saints season series

Split+104exchange

DataPitch 45%Market 49%Gap -4pp

Both meetings fall in every simulated season: ours have New Orleans Saints taking the series 30 times in 100 and the two sides splitting it 45.

+↗

WATCHAtlanta Falcons vs Carolina Panthers season series

Split+106exchange

DataPitch 45%Market 49%Gap -3pp

Both meetings fall in every simulated season: ours have Carolina Panthers taking the series 28 times in 100 and the two sides splitting it 45.

+↗

WATCHPhiladelphia Eagles vs Washington Commanders season series

Philadelphia Eagles+131exchange

DataPitch 47%Market 43%Gap +3pp

Both meetings fall in every simulated season: ours have Philadelphia Eagles taking the series 47 times in 100 and the two sides splitting it 40.

+↗

WATCHArizona Cardinals vs San Francisco 49ers season series

San Francisco 49ers-180exchange

DataPitch 61%Market 64%Gap -3pp

Both meetings fall in every simulated season: ours have San Francisco 49ers taking the series 61 times in 100 and the two sides splitting it 32.

+↗

WATCHCarolina Panthers vs New Orleans Saints season series

Split+108exchange

DataPitch 45%Market 48%Gap -3pp

Both meetings fall in every simulated season: ours have New Orleans Saints taking the series 29 times in 100 and the two sides splitting it 45.

+↗

WATCHChicago Bears vs Minnesota Vikings season series

Split+140exchange

DataPitch 45%Market 42%Gap +3pp

Both meetings fall in every simulated season: ours have Chicago Bears taking the series 32 times in 100 and the two sides splitting it 45.

+↗

WATCHSeattle Seahawks vs San Francisco 49ers season series

Split+111exchange

DataPitch 45%Market 47%Gap -3pp

Both meetings fall in every simulated season: ours have Seattle Seahawks taking the series 34 times in 100 and the two sides splitting it 45.

+↗

WATCHLos Angeles Rams vs San Francisco 49ers season series

Split+117exchange

DataPitch 43%Market 46%Gap -3pp

Both meetings fall in every simulated season: ours have Los Angeles Rams taking the series 39 times in 100 and the two sides splitting it 43.

+↗

WATCHNew Orleans Saints vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers season series

Split+114exchange

DataPitch 44%Market 47%Gap -3pp

Both meetings fall in every simulated season: ours have Tampa Bay Buccaneers taking the series 35 times in 100 and the two sides splitting it 44.

+↗

WATCHBaltimore Ravens vs Cincinnati Bengals season series

Split+116exchange

DataPitch 44%Market 46%Gap -2pp

Both meetings fall in every simulated season: ours have Baltimore Ravens taking the series 35 times in 100 and the two sides splitting it 44.

+↗

WATCHBuffalo Bills vs Miami Dolphins season series

Buffalo Bills-201exchange

DataPitch 69%Market 67%Gap +2pp

Both meetings fall in every simulated season: ours have Buffalo Bills taking the series 69 times in 100 and the two sides splitting it 27.

+↗

WATCHDetroit Lions vs Minnesota Vikings season series

Split+115exchange

DataPitch 44%Market 47%Gap -2pp

Both meetings fall in every simulated season: ours have Detroit Lions taking the series 36 times in 100 and the two sides splitting it 44.

+↗

WATCHBaltimore Ravens vs Pittsburgh Steelers season series

Baltimore Ravens+143exchange

DataPitch 43%Market 41%Gap +2pp

Both meetings fall in every simulated season: ours have Baltimore Ravens taking the series 43 times in 100 and the two sides splitting it 42.

+↗

WATCHLos Angeles Rams vs Seattle Seahawks season series

Split+115exchange

DataPitch 45%Market 47%Gap -1pp

Both meetings fall in every simulated season: ours have Los Angeles Rams taking the series 32 times in 100 and the two sides splitting it 45.

+↗

WATCHDenver Broncos vs Kansas City Chiefs season series

Split+115exchange

DataPitch 45%Market 47%Gap -1pp

Both meetings fall in every simulated season: ours have Kansas City Chiefs taking the series 29 times in 100 and the two sides splitting it 45.

+↗

WATCHDallas Cowboys vs Washington Commanders season series

Split+131exchange

DataPitch 42%Market 43%Gap -1pp

Both meetings fall in every simulated season: ours have Dallas Cowboys taking the series 41 times in 100 and the two sides splitting it 42.

+↗

WATCHCarolina Panthers vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers season series

Split+130exchange

DataPitch 44%Market 43%Gap +1pp

Both meetings fall in every simulated season: ours have Tampa Bay Buccaneers taking the series 36 times in 100 and the two sides splitting it 44.

+↗

WATCHDetroit Lions vs Green Bay Packers season series

Split+116exchange

DataPitch 46%Market 46%Gap -1pp

Both meetings fall in every simulated season: ours have Detroit Lions taking the series 29 times in 100 and the two sides splitting it 46.

+↗

WATCHBuffalo Bills vs New York Jets season series

Buffalo Bills-158exchange

DataPitch 62%Market 61%Gap +1pp

Both meetings fall in every simulated season: ours have Buffalo Bills taking the series 62 times in 100 and the two sides splitting it 32.

+↗

WATCHBaltimore Ravens vs Cleveland Browns season series

Baltimore Ravens-171exchange

DataPitch 63%Market 63%Gap +0pp

Both meetings fall in every simulated season: ours have Baltimore Ravens taking the series 63 times in 100 and the two sides splitting it 31.

+↗

Win totals (16)

The rung the market prices closest to a coin flip, against how often our simulated seasons clear it. Traded on a prediction market, not a bookmaker, so every row is a watch.

WATCHRegular season wins

Miami Dolphins 4+ wins-113exchange

DataPitch 60%Market 53%Gap +6pp

We and the market land on about the same season for Miami Dolphins, 4.3 wins against 4.3. At the 4+ rung our simulated seasons clear it 60 times in 100 against the market's 53, and 2nd hardest schedule of 32.

+↗

WATCHRegular season wins

Arizona Cardinals 4+ wins-130exchange

DataPitch 63%Market 57%Gap +6pp

We and the market land on about the same season for Arizona Cardinals, 4.4 wins against 4.3. At the 4+ rung our simulated seasons clear it 63 times in 100 against the market's 56, and 1st hardest schedule of 32.

+↗

WATCHRegular season wins

New York Jets 6+ wins-106exchange

DataPitch 56%Market 51%Gap +4pp

We and the market land on about the same season for New York Jets, 6.0 wins against 5.9. At the 6+ rung our simulated seasons clear it 56 times in 100 against the market's 52, and 29th hardest schedule of 32.

+↗

WATCHRegular season wins

Atlanta Falcons 7+ wins-111exchange

DataPitch 56%Market 53%Gap +4pp

We and the market land on about the same season for Atlanta Falcons, 7.0 wins against 7.0. At the 7+ rung our simulated seasons clear it 56 times in 100 against the market's 52, and 12th hardest schedule of 32.

+↗

WATCHRegular season wins

New England Patriots 10+ wins-122exchange

DataPitch 51%Market 55%Gap -4pp

We and the market land on about the same season for New England Patriots, 9.5 wins against 9.8. At the 10+ rung our simulated seasons clear it 51 times in 100 against the market's 55, and 21st hardest schedule of 32.

+↗

WATCHRegular season wins

Seattle Seahawks 11+ wins-133exchange

DataPitch 54%Market 57%Gap -4pp

We and the market land on about the same season for Seattle Seahawks, 10.6 wins against 10.6. At the 11+ rung our simulated seasons clear it 54 times in 100 against the market's 57, and 13th hardest schedule of 32.

+↗

WATCHRegular season wins

Baltimore Ravens 11+ wins-135exchange

DataPitch 54%Market 57%Gap -3pp

We and the market land on about the same season for Baltimore Ravens, 10.7 wins against 10.5. At the 11+ rung our simulated seasons clear it 54 times in 100 against the market's 57, and 27th hardest schedule of 32.

+↗

WATCHRegular season wins

Denver Broncos 10+ wins-127exchange

DataPitch 53%Market 56%Gap -3pp

We and the market land on about the same season for Denver Broncos, 9.6 wins against 9.8. At the 10+ rung our simulated seasons clear it 53 times in 100 against the market's 56, and 22nd hardest schedule of 32.

+↗

WATCHRegular season wins

San Francisco 49ers 10+ wins-135exchange

DataPitch 55%Market 57%Gap -3pp

We and the market land on about the same season for San Francisco 49ers, 9.8 wins against 9.7. At the 10+ rung our simulated seasons clear it 55 times in 100 against the market's 57, and 24th hardest schedule of 32.

+↗

WATCHRegular season wins

Tennessee Titans 6+ wins-120exchange

DataPitch 57%Market 55%Gap +3pp

We and the market land on about the same season for Tennessee Titans, 6.1 wins against 6.1. At the 6+ rung our simulated seasons clear it 57 times in 100 against the market's 55, and 15th hardest schedule of 32.

+↗

WATCHRegular season wins

Washington Commanders 7+ wins-141exchange

DataPitch 56%Market 59%Gap -3pp

We and the market land on about the same season for Washington Commanders, 7.0 wins against 7.0. At the 7+ rung our simulated seasons clear it 56 times in 100 against the market's 58, and 5th hardest schedule of 32.

+↗

WATCHRegular season wins

Cleveland Browns 6+ wins+113exchange

DataPitch 49%Market 47%Gap +2pp

We and the market land on about the same season for Cleveland Browns, 5.6 wins against 5.6. At the 6+ rung our simulated seasons clear it 49 times in 100 against the market's 47, and 28th hardest schedule of 32.

+↗

WATCHRegular season wins

Las Vegas Raiders 6+ wins-125exchange

DataPitch 57%Market 56%Gap +1pp

We and the market land on about the same season for Las Vegas Raiders, 6.1 wins against 6.0. At the 6+ rung our simulated seasons clear it 57 times in 100 against the market's 56, and 18th hardest schedule of 32.

+↗

WATCHRegular season wins

Detroit Lions 11+ wins-125exchange

DataPitch 55%Market 56%Gap -1pp

We and the market land on about the same season for Detroit Lions, 10.7 wins against 10.6. At the 11+ rung our simulated seasons clear it 55 times in 100 against the market's 56, and 32nd hardest schedule of 32.

+↗

WATCHRegular season wins

Green Bay Packers 10+ wins-111exchange

DataPitch 53%Market 53%Gap +1pp

We and the market land on about the same season for Green Bay Packers, 9.7 wins against 9.4. At the 10+ rung our simulated seasons clear it 53 times in 100 against the market's 52, and 6th hardest schedule of 32.

+↗

WATCHRegular season wins

New Orleans Saints 8+ wins-122exchange

DataPitch 55%Market 55%Gap +0pp

We and the market land on about the same season for New Orleans Saints, 7.9 wins against 8.0. At the 8+ rung our simulated seasons clear it 55 times in 100 against the market's 55, and 30th hardest schedule of 32.

+↗