v
The rows below run on your numbers, and colour is the verdict: green a positive trade, red a negative one, white neutral. The chip recolours them from our model instead and opens our read on the match.
D. Elder runs average on cards, and nothing on this match is strong enough to back tonight, so we are backing none of it.
86 players across every market.
Aziz BehichLB · #16Fouls committed
DataPitch 55% · Market 52%
Against this price: Gap +3pp
at our corrected probability the price is fair
Matthew GrimaldiRM · #14Fouls committed
DataPitch 49% · Market 60%
Against this price: Gap -11pp
the price is fair, so there is nothing to back
Denis GenreauLCM · #10Fouls committed
DataPitch 65% · Market 77%
Against this price: Gap -12pp
price too short
Franco LinoLB · #18Fouls committed
DataPitch 55% · Market 69%
Against this price: Gap -14pp
price too short
Joshua InserraRB · #16Fouls committed
DataPitch 57% · Market 74%
Against this price: Gap -17pp
price too short
Nathaniel AtkinsonRB · #13Fouls committed
DataPitch 57% · Market 75%
Against this price: Gap -18pp
price too short
Jordi ValadonCAM · #8Fouls committed
DataPitch 53% · Market 74%
Against this price: Gap -21pp
price too short
Kavian RahmaniLDM · #24Fouls committed
DataPitch 50% · Market 75%
Against this price: Gap -25pp
price too short
Medin MemetiRM · #23Fouls committed
DataPitch 55% · Market 82%
Against this price: Gap -27pp
price too short
Charles NdukaST · #44Fouls committed
DataPitch 41% · Market 69%
Against this price: Gap -28pp
price too short
Jason DavidsonLCB · #3Fouls committed
DataPitch 52% · Market 82%
Against this price: Gap -30pp
price too short
Andrew NabboutST · #15Fouls committed
DataPitch 46% · Market 85%
Against this price: Gap -39pp
price too short
Kavian RahmaniLDM · #24Shots
DataPitch 94% · Market 77%
Against this price: Gap +17pp
we evaluate this market and never bet it
Medin MemetiRM · #23Shots
DataPitch 88% · Market 83%
Against this price: Gap +5pp
we evaluate this market and never bet it
Franco LinoLB · #18Shots
DataPitch 36% · Market 42%
Against this price: Gap -6pp
we evaluate this market and never bet it
Charles NdukaST · #44Shots
DataPitch 86% · Market 95%
Against this price: Gap -9pp
we evaluate this market and never bet it
Besian KutleshiRDM · #14Shots
DataPitch 37% · Market 48%
Against this price: Gap -11pp
we evaluate this market and never bet it
Joshua InserraRB · #16Shots
DataPitch 16% · Market 29%
Against this price: Gap -13pp
we evaluate this market and never bet it
Jason DavidsonLCB · #3Shots
DataPitch 46% · Market 62%
Against this price: Gap -16pp
we evaluate this market and never bet it
Matthew GrimaldiRM · #14Shots
DataPitch 77% · Market 94%
Against this price: Gap -17pp
we evaluate this market and never bet it
Denis GenreauLCM · #10Shots
DataPitch 67% · Market 88%
Against this price: Gap -21pp
we evaluate this market and never bet it
Andrew NabboutST · #15Shots
DataPitch 56% · Market 83%
Against this price: Gap -27pp
we evaluate this market and never bet it
Nathaniel AtkinsonRB · #13Shots
DataPitch 28% · Market 56%
Against this price: Gap -28pp
we evaluate this market and never bet it
Aziz BehichLB · #16Shots
DataPitch 24% · Market 56%
Against this price: Gap -32pp
we evaluate this market and never bet it
Jordi ValadonCAM · #8Shots
DataPitch 37% · Market 77%
Against this price: Gap -40pp
we evaluate this market and never bet it
Medin MemetiRM · #23Shots on target
DataPitch 58% · Market 52%
Against this price: Gap +6pp
we evaluate this market and never bet it
Aziz BehichLB · #16Shots on target
DataPitch 24% · Market 18%
Against this price: Gap +6pp
we evaluate this market and never bet it
Besian KutleshiRDM · #14Shots on target
DataPitch 24% · Market 22%
Against this price: Gap +2pp
we evaluate this market and never bet it
Nathaniel AtkinsonRB · #13Shots on target
DataPitch 17% · Market 18%
Against this price: Gap -1pp
we evaluate this market and never bet it
Franco LinoLB · #18Shots on target
DataPitch 24% · Market 29%
Against this price: Gap -5pp
we evaluate this market and never bet it
Jason DavidsonLCB · #3Shots on target
DataPitch 15% · Market 25%
Against this price: Gap -10pp
we evaluate this market and never bet it
Kavian RahmaniLDM · #24Shots on target
DataPitch 36% · Market 48%
Against this price: Gap -12pp
we evaluate this market and never bet it
Denis GenreauLCM · #10Shots on target
DataPitch 29% · Market 42%
Against this price: Gap -13pp
we evaluate this market and never bet it
Joshua InserraRB · #16Shots on target
DataPitch 0% · Market 14%
Against this price: Gap -14pp
we evaluate this market and never bet it
Andrew NabboutST · #15Shots on target
DataPitch 33% · Market 48%
Against this price: Gap -15pp
we evaluate this market and never bet it
Jordi ValadonCAM · #8Shots on target
DataPitch 20% · Market 38%
Against this price: Gap -18pp
we evaluate this market and never bet it
Matthew GrimaldiRM · #14Shots on target
DataPitch 36% · Market 62%
Against this price: Gap -26pp
we evaluate this market and never bet it
Charles NdukaST · #44Shots on target
DataPitch 49% · Market 78%
Against this price: Gap -29pp
we evaluate this market and never bet it
Philipp ZiereisRCB · #4To be booked
DataPitch 13% · Market 17%
Against this price: Gap -4pp
the price is fair, so there is nothing to back
Charles NdukaST · #44To be booked
DataPitch 11% · Market 17%
Against this price: Gap -6pp
the price is fair, so there is nothing to back
Jordi ValadonCAM · #8To be booked
DataPitch 13% · Market 21%
Against this price: Gap -8pp
the price is fair, so there is nothing to back
Andrew NabboutST · #15To be booked
DataPitch 10% · Market 21%
Against this price: Gap -11pp
the price is fair, so there is nothing to back
Denis GenreauLCM · #10To be booked
DataPitch 15% · Market 27%
Against this price: Gap -12pp
the price is fair, so there is nothing to back
Medin MemetiRM · #23To be booked
DataPitch 6% · Market 18%
Against this price: Gap -12pp
the price is fair, so there is nothing to back
Nathaniel AtkinsonRB · #13To be booked
DataPitch 15% · Market 29%
Against this price: Gap -14pp
the price is fair, so there is nothing to back
Joshua InserraRB · #16To be booked
DataPitch 13% · Market 27%
Against this price: Gap -14pp
the price is fair, so there is nothing to back
Aziz BehichLB · #16To be booked
DataPitch 9% · Market 23%
Against this price: Gap -14pp
the price is fair, so there is nothing to back
11Awer MabilLM · #11-14ppAwer MabilLM · #11To be booked
DataPitch 4% · Market 18%
Against this price: Gap -14pp
the price is fair, so there is nothing to back
Besian KutleshiRDM · #14To be booked
DataPitch 13% · Market 29%
Against this price: Gap -16pp
the price is fair, so there is nothing to back
Harrison DelbridgeLCB · #2To be booked
DataPitch 13% · Market 29%
Against this price: Gap -16pp
the price is fair, so there is nothing to back
Matthew GrimaldiRM · #14To be booked
DataPitch 4% · Market 21%
Against this price: Gap -17pp
the price is fair, so there is nothing to back
Kavian RahmaniLDM · #24To be booked
DataPitch 6% · Market 25%
Against this price: Gap -19pp
the price is fair, so there is nothing to back
Jason DavidsonLCB · #3To be booked
DataPitch 15% · Market 35%
Against this price: Gap -20pp
the price is fair, so there is nothing to back
11Clarismario RodriguesLM · #11Clarismario RodriguesLM · #11To be booked
DataPitch 8%
No book has opened this market yet. The price lands here when one does.
Harrison DelbridgeLCB · #2Headed shot on target
DataPitch 22%
No book has opened this market yet. The price lands here when one does.
Philipp ZiereisRCB · #4Headed shot on target
DataPitch 14%
No book has opened this market yet. The price lands here when one does.
Charles NdukaST · #44Headed shot on target
DataPitch 13%
No book has opened this market yet. The price lands here when one does.
Nathaniel AtkinsonRB · #13Headed shot on target
DataPitch 8%
No book has opened this market yet. The price lands here when one does.
Jason DavidsonLCB · #3Headed shot on target
DataPitch 8%
No book has opened this market yet. The price lands here when one does.
Andrew NabboutST · #15Headed shot on target
DataPitch 5%
No book has opened this market yet. The price lands here when one does.
Aziz BehichLB · #16Headed shot on target
DataPitch 4%
No book has opened this market yet. The price lands here when one does.
Awer MabilLM · #11Headed shot on target
DataPitch 3%
No book has opened this market yet. The price lands here when one does.
Denis GenreauLCM · #10Headed shot on target
DataPitch 3%
No book has opened this market yet. The price lands here when one does.
Kavian RahmaniLDM · #24Headed shot on target
DataPitch 3%
No book has opened this market yet. The price lands here when one does.
19Quinn MacnicolCAM · #19Quinn MacnicolCAM · #19Shot on target from outside the box
DataPitch 35%
No book has opened this market yet. The price lands here when one does.
Medin MemetiRM · #23Shot on target from outside the box
DataPitch 28%
No book has opened this market yet. The price lands here when one does.
Matthew GrimaldiRM · #14Shot on target from outside the box
DataPitch 19%
No book has opened this market yet. The price lands here when one does.
11Clarismario RodriguesLM · #11Clarismario RodriguesLM · #11Shot on target from outside the box
DataPitch 18%
No book has opened this market yet. The price lands here when one does.
Andrew NabboutST · #15Shot on target from outside the box
DataPitch 16%
No book has opened this market yet. The price lands here when one does.
Charles NdukaST · #44Shot on target from outside the box
DataPitch 13%
No book has opened this market yet. The price lands here when one does.
Besian KutleshiRDM · #14Shot on target from outside the box
DataPitch 10%
No book has opened this market yet. The price lands here when one does.
Denis GenreauLCM · #10Shot on target from outside the box
DataPitch 9%
No book has opened this market yet. The price lands here when one does.
Kavian RahmaniLDM · #24Shot on target from outside the box
DataPitch 7%
No book has opened this market yet. The price lands here when one does.
Jordi ValadonCAM · #8Shot on target from outside the box
DataPitch 6%
No book has opened this market yet. The price lands here when one does.
Harrison DelbridgeLCB · #2Shot on target from outside the box
DataPitch 5%
No book has opened this market yet. The price lands here when one does.
22X. StellaRCM · #22X. StellaRCM · #22Shot on target from outside the box
DataPitch 4%
No book has opened this market yet. The price lands here when one does.
Aziz BehichLB · #16Shot on target from outside the box
DataPitch 3%
No book has opened this market yet. The price lands here when one does.
Jason DavidsonLCB · #3Shot on target from outside the box
DataPitch 2%
No book has opened this market yet. The price lands here when one does.
Nathaniel AtkinsonRB · #13Shot on target from outside the box
DataPitch 2%
No book has opened this market yet. The price lands here when one does.
Philipp ZiereisRCB · #4Shot on target from outside the box
DataPitch 2%
No book has opened this market yet. The price lands here when one does.
Joshua InserraRB · #16Shot on target from outside the box
DataPitch 2%
No book has opened this market yet. The price lands here when one does.
Franco LinoLB · #18Shot on target from outside the box
DataPitch 2%
No book has opened this market yet. The price lands here when one does.
4Liam BonetigRCB · #4Liam BonetigRCB · #4Shot on target from outside the box
DataPitch 2%
No book has opened this market yet. The price lands here when one does.
Awer MabilLM · #11Shot on target from outside the box
DataPitch 1%
No book has opened this market yet. The price lands here when one does.
1Macklin FrekeGK · #1Macklin FrekeGK · #1Shot on target from outside the box
DataPitch 1%
No book has opened this market yet. The price lands here when one does.
1Jack WarshawskyGK · #1Jack WarshawskyGK · #1Shot on target from outside the box
DataPitch 1%
No book has opened this market yet. The price lands here when one does.
Tap any player for his numbers
Expected XI. Attack at the top, keeper at the bottom.
Match level, never per player. Work down the steps, set the match up the way you see it, then Simulate re-prices every row above in your browser.
How strict you think D. Elder will be tonight
Our card model already has his record in it. This is your view on top of ours. Touches: cards, fouls and fouls drawn.
Who has the ball and who is chasing it
The side chasing shoots more and gets fouled more; the side in front tackles more. Touches: every market.
Pick the battles you are watching: an attacker and the defender on him
A battle is one attacker against the defender marking him. Add the duels you expect to shape the game and Simulate works them into both men's numbers. None picked yet, and none is fine.
We apply our matchup pivot to each pair and show you every row it moves. Two battles never stack on one player: the pivot has a ceiling and one battle already takes him there. Touches: fouls, fouls drawn and cards for those players.
We lean on the market where it is sharp
Off means our own numbers stand alone: the cards line stops setting the level and the goalscorer price stops lifting shots. Touches: cards, shots and shots on target.
This re-prices the rows we already evaluated. It does not re-decide which rows to evaluate or re-run the match itself.
average, 98 matches
League average is 3.97 yellows a match.
Home 1.88/match · Away 1.99/match
3.78/match in tight games · 4.02/match in open ones
Price = the latest market price we hold, labelled by the venue quoting it, never a price of ours. Where we hold more than one book on a row, all of them are behind the row's tap with the best marked. A row's colour is the trade in the numbers on show: green positive, red negative, white neutral. Those numbers are the model replayed with your dials, in your browser, until the chip above swaps in DataPitch's own; either way the percentages, the market's own number and the gap between them live behind the row's tap. A row's last-5 history counts starts of 60+ minutes in the last 365 days, most recent first.
