v
The rows below run on your numbers, and colour is the verdict: green a positive trade, red a negative one, white neutral. The chip recolours them from our model instead and opens our read on the match.
John Busby runs average on cards, and nothing on this match is strong enough to back tonight, so we are backing none of it.
162 players across every market.
Tyler BindonRB · #44Fouls committed
DataPitch 60% · Market 60%
Against this price: Gap +0pp
at our corrected probability the price is fair
Tyreece CampbellLM · #7Fouls committed
DataPitch 62% · Market 65%
Against this price: Gap -3pp
price too short
Oscar SchwartauLM · #29Fouls committed
DataPitch 42% · Market 45%
Against this price: Gap -3pp
the price is fair, so there is nothing to back
Ruairi McConvilleRCB · #15Fouls committed
DataPitch 43% · Market 48%
Against this price: Gap -5pp
the price is fair, so there is nothing to back
José CórdobaLCB · #33Fouls committed
DataPitch 60% · Market 69%
Against this price: Gap -9pp
price too short
Oliver SkippLDM · #34Fouls committed
DataPitch 61% · Market 71%
Against this price: Gap -10pp
price too short
Billy KoumetioLCB · #12Fouls committed
DataPitch 51% · Market 62%
Against this price: Gap -11pp
the price is fair, so there is nothing to back
Ivan MesíkLB · #18-12ppIvan MesíkLB · #18Fouls committed
DataPitch 65% · Market 77%
Against this price: Gap -12pp
price too short
Mathias KvistgaardenST · #30Fouls committed
DataPitch 64% · Market 77%
Against this price: Gap -13pp
price too short
Kayne RamsayRM · #2-13ppKayne RamsayRM · #2Fouls committed
DataPitch 62% · Market 75%
Against this price: Gap -13pp
price too short
Lloyd JonesRCB · #5-13ppLloyd JonesRCB · #5Fouls committed
DataPitch 56% · Market 69%
Against this price: Gap -13pp
price too short
Danny McNamaraCAM · #20Fouls committed
DataPitch 53% · Market 67%
Against this price: Gap -14pp
price too short
Jack StaceyRB · #3-14ppJack StaceyRB · #3Fouls committed
DataPitch 53% · Market 67%
Against this price: Gap -14pp
price too short
P. MaghomaCAM · #25Fouls committed
DataPitch 52% · Market 67%
Against this price: Gap -15pp
price too short
Conor CoventryRDM · #6Fouls committed
DataPitch 61% · Market 77%
Against this price: Gap -16pp
price too short
Benjamin ChriseneLB · #14Fouls committed
DataPitch 46% · Market 62%
Against this price: Gap -16pp
the price is fair, so there is nothing to back
Pelle MattssonLDM · #7Fouls committed
DataPitch 66% · Market 83%
Against this price: Gap -17pp
price too short
Andre BrooksRM · #11Fouls committed
DataPitch 50% · Market 67%
Against this price: Gap -17pp
price too short
Charlie KelmanST · #23Fouls committed
DataPitch 49% · Market 67%
Against this price: Gap -18pp
price too short
Jacob WrightRDM · #16Fouls committed
DataPitch 58% · Market 78%
Against this price: Gap -20pp
price too short
Billy KoumetioLCB · #12Fouls drawn
DataPitch 37% · Market 40%
Against this price: Gap -3pp
the price is fair, so there is nothing to back
P. MaghomaCAM · #25Fouls drawn
DataPitch 54% · Market 60%
Against this price: Gap -6pp
at our corrected probability the price is fair
Conor CoventryRDM · #6Fouls drawn
DataPitch 32% · Market 40%
Against this price: Gap -8pp
the price is fair, so there is nothing to back
Mathias KvistgaardenST · #30Fouls drawn
DataPitch 76% · Market 85%
Against this price: Gap -9pp
price too short
Oscar SchwartauLM · #29Fouls drawn
DataPitch 55% · Market 67%
Against this price: Gap -12pp
price too short
Benjamin ChriseneLB · #14Fouls drawn
DataPitch 60% · Market 74%
Against this price: Gap -14pp
price too short
Charlie KelmanST · #23Fouls drawn
DataPitch 36% · Market 50%
Against this price: Gap -14pp
the price is fair, so there is nothing to back
José CórdobaLCB · #33Fouls drawn
DataPitch 52% · Market 67%
Against this price: Gap -15pp
price too short
Jack StaceyRB · #3-15ppJack StaceyRB · #3Fouls drawn
DataPitch 35% · Market 50%
Against this price: Gap -15pp
the price is fair, so there is nothing to back
Tyreece CampbellLM · #7Fouls drawn
DataPitch 56% · Market 73%
Against this price: Gap -17pp
price too short
Ruairi McConvilleRCB · #15Fouls drawn
DataPitch 38% · Market 56%
Against this price: Gap -18pp
the price is fair, so there is nothing to back
Danny McNamaraCAM · #20Fouls drawn
DataPitch 52% · Market 71%
Against this price: Gap -19pp
price too short
Oliver SkippLDM · #34Fouls drawn
DataPitch 50% · Market 69%
Against this price: Gap -19pp
price too short
Andre BrooksRM · #11Fouls drawn
DataPitch 39% · Market 60%
Against this price: Gap -21pp
the price is fair, so there is nothing to back
Tyler BindonRB · #44Fouls drawn
DataPitch 33% · Market 55%
Against this price: Gap -22pp
the price is fair, so there is nothing to back
Ivan MesíkLB · #18-24ppIvan MesíkLB · #18Fouls drawn
DataPitch 34% · Market 58%
Against this price: Gap -24pp
the price is fair, so there is nothing to back
Kayne RamsayRM · #2-27ppKayne RamsayRM · #2Fouls drawn
DataPitch 33% · Market 60%
Against this price: Gap -27pp
the price is fair, so there is nothing to back
Pelle MattssonLDM · #7Fouls drawn
DataPitch 60% · Market 90%
Against this price: Gap -30pp
price too short
Lloyd JonesRCB · #5-42ppLloyd JonesRCB · #5Fouls drawn
DataPitch 33% · Market 75%
Against this price: Gap -42pp
price too short
Jacob WrightRDM · #16Fouls drawn
DataPitch 17% · Market 60%
Against this price: Gap -43pp
the price is fair, so there is nothing to back
Mathias KvistgaardenST · #30Tackles
DataPitch 39% · Market 22%
Against this price: Gap +17pp
price too long
José CórdobaLCB · #33Tackles
DataPitch 34% · Market 31%
Against this price: Gap +3pp
at our corrected probability the price is fair
Tyler BindonRB · #44Tackles
DataPitch 34% · Market 31%
Against this price: Gap +3pp
the price is fair, so there is nothing to back
Billy KoumetioLCB · #12Tackles
DataPitch 32% · Market 31%
Against this price: Gap +1pp
the price is fair, so there is nothing to back
Conor CoventryRDM · #6Tackles
DataPitch 57% · Market 62%
Against this price: Gap -5pp
at our corrected probability the price is fair
Lloyd JonesRCB · #5Tackles
DataPitch 30% · Market 38%
Against this price: Gap -8pp
the price is fair, so there is nothing to back
Jack StaceyRB · #3Tackles
DataPitch 56% · Market 65%
Against this price: Gap -9pp
price too short
P. MaghomaCAM · #25Tackles
DataPitch 23% · Market 36%
Against this price: Gap -13pp
the price is fair, so there is nothing to back
Ivan MesíkLB · #18-14ppIvan MesíkLB · #18Tackles
DataPitch 41% · Market 55%
Against this price: Gap -14pp
the price is fair, so there is nothing to back
Ruairi McConvilleRCB · #15Tackles
DataPitch 29% · Market 44%
Against this price: Gap -15pp
the price is fair, so there is nothing to back
Pelle MattssonLDM · #7Tackles
DataPitch 57% · Market 73%
Against this price: Gap -16pp
price too short
Danny McNamaraCAM · #20Tackles
DataPitch 42% · Market 58%
Against this price: Gap -16pp
the price is fair, so there is nothing to back
Oscar SchwartauLM · #29Tackles
DataPitch 32% · Market 50%
Against this price: Gap -18pp
the price is fair, so there is nothing to back
Charlie KelmanST · #23Tackles
DataPitch 9% · Market 27%
Against this price: Gap -18pp
price too long
Benjamin ChriseneLB · #14Tackles
DataPitch 54% · Market 77%
Against this price: Gap -23pp
price too short
Jacob WrightRDM · #16Tackles
DataPitch 43% · Market 67%
Against this price: Gap -24pp
price too short
Oliver SkippLDM · #34Tackles
DataPitch 44% · Market 69%
Against this price: Gap -25pp
price too short
Tyreece CampbellLM · #7Tackles
DataPitch 9% · Market 42%
Against this price: Gap -33pp
the price is fair, so there is nothing to back
Andre BrooksRM · #11Tackles
DataPitch 30% · Market 67%
Against this price: Gap -37pp
price too short
Kayne RamsayRM · #2-38ppKayne RamsayRM · #2Tackles
DataPitch 40% · Market 78%
Against this price: Gap -38pp
price too short
Ivan MesíkLB · #18Shots
DataPitch 50% · Market 48%
Against this price: Gap +2pp
we evaluate this market and never bet it
Charlie KelmanST · #23Shots
DataPitch 83% · Market 83%
Against this price: Gap +0pp
we evaluate this market and never bet it
Ruairi McConvilleRCB · #15Shots
DataPitch 64% · Market 65%
Against this price: Gap -1pp
we evaluate this market and never bet it
Andre BrooksRM · #11Shots
DataPitch 81% · Market 85%
Against this price: Gap -4pp
we evaluate this market and never bet it
Oscar SchwartauLM · #29Shots
DataPitch 79% · Market 83%
Against this price: Gap -4pp
we evaluate this market and never bet it
José CórdobaLCB · #33Shots
DataPitch 24% · Market 30%
Against this price: Gap -6pp
we evaluate this market and never bet it
Tyreece CampbellLM · #7Shots
DataPitch 78% · Market 85%
Against this price: Gap -7pp
we evaluate this market and never bet it
Kayne RamsayRM · #2Shots
DataPitch 34% · Market 43%
Against this price: Gap -9pp
we evaluate this market and never bet it
P. MaghomaCAM · #25Shots
DataPitch 71% · Market 83%
Against this price: Gap -12pp
we evaluate this market and never bet it
Billy KoumetioLCB · #12Shots
DataPitch 40% · Market 52%
Against this price: Gap -12pp
we evaluate this market and never bet it
Benjamin ChriseneLB · #14Shots
DataPitch 36% · Market 52%
Against this price: Gap -16pp
we evaluate this market and never bet it
Oliver SkippLDM · #34Shots
DataPitch 17% · Market 33%
Against this price: Gap -16pp
we evaluate this market and never bet it
Jack StaceyRB · #3-18ppJack StaceyRB · #3Shots
DataPitch 27% · Market 45%
Against this price: Gap -18pp
we evaluate this market and never bet it
Jacob WrightRDM · #16Shots
DataPitch 54% · Market 74%
Against this price: Gap -20pp
we evaluate this market and never bet it
Conor CoventryRDM · #6Shots
DataPitch 22% · Market 44%
Against this price: Gap -22pp
we evaluate this market and never bet it
Mathias KvistgaardenST · #30Shots
DataPitch 68% · Market 93%
Against this price: Gap -25pp
we evaluate this market and never bet it
Tyler BindonRB · #44Shots
DataPitch 32% · Market 58%
Against this price: Gap -26pp
we evaluate this market and never bet it
Pelle MattssonLDM · #7Shots
DataPitch 32% · Market 64%
Against this price: Gap -32pp
we evaluate this market and never bet it
Danny McNamaraCAM · #20Shots
DataPitch 8% · Market 40%
Against this price: Gap -32pp
we evaluate this market and never bet it
Lloyd JonesRCB · #5-33ppLloyd JonesRCB · #5Shots
DataPitch 27% · Market 60%
Against this price: Gap -33pp
we evaluate this market and never bet it
Kayne RamsayRM · #2Shots on target
DataPitch 23% · Market 15%
Against this price: Gap +8pp
we evaluate this market and never bet it
Benjamin ChriseneLB · #14Shots on target
DataPitch 21% · Market 13%
Against this price: Gap +8pp
we evaluate this market and never bet it
Billy KoumetioLCB · #12Shots on target
DataPitch 22% · Market 15%
Against this price: Gap +7pp
we evaluate this market and never bet it
José CórdobaLCB · #33Shots on target
DataPitch 17% · Market 11%
Against this price: Gap +6pp
we evaluate this market and never bet it
Jack StaceyRB · #3Shots on target
DataPitch 21% · Market 17%
Against this price: Gap +4pp
we evaluate this market and never bet it
Ivan MesíkLB · #18Shots on target
DataPitch 21% · Market 17%
Against this price: Gap +4pp
we evaluate this market and never bet it
Lloyd JonesRCB · #5Shots on target
DataPitch 26% · Market 24%
Against this price: Gap +2pp
we evaluate this market and never bet it
Conor CoventryRDM · #6Shots on target
DataPitch 20% · Market 18%
Against this price: Gap +2pp
we evaluate this market and never bet it
Tyler BindonRB · #44Shots on target
DataPitch 20% · Market 20%
Against this price: Gap +0pp
we evaluate this market and never bet it
Oliver SkippLDM · #34Shots on target
DataPitch 15% · Market 18%
Against this price: Gap -3pp
we evaluate this market and never bet it
Ruairi McConvilleRCB · #15Shots on target
DataPitch 23% · Market 27%
Against this price: Gap -4pp
we evaluate this market and never bet it
Danny McNamaraCAM · #20Shots on target
DataPitch 10% · Market 15%
Against this price: Gap -5pp
we evaluate this market and never bet it
Pelle MattssonLDM · #7Shots on target
DataPitch 21% · Market 27%
Against this price: Gap -6pp
we evaluate this market and never bet it
Oscar SchwartauLM · #29Shots on target
DataPitch 36% · Market 45%
Against this price: Gap -9pp
we evaluate this market and never bet it
Jacob WrightRDM · #16Shots on target
DataPitch 33% · Market 42%
Against this price: Gap -9pp
we evaluate this market and never bet it
Charlie KelmanST · #23Shots on target
DataPitch 48% · Market 60%
Against this price: Gap -12pp
we evaluate this market and never bet it
P. MaghomaCAM · #25Shots on target
DataPitch 40% · Market 55%
Against this price: Gap -15pp
we evaluate this market and never bet it
Andre BrooksRM · #11Shots on target
DataPitch 34% · Market 55%
Against this price: Gap -21pp
we evaluate this market and never bet it
Mathias KvistgaardenST · #30Shots on target
DataPitch 43% · Market 69%
Against this price: Gap -26pp
we evaluate this market and never bet it
Tyreece CampbellLM · #7Shots on target
DataPitch 33% · Market 60%
Against this price: Gap -27pp
we evaluate this market and never bet it
Pelle MattssonLDM · #7To be booked
DataPitch 23% · Market 24%
Against this price: Gap -1pp
the price is fair, so there is nothing to back
Jacob WrightRDM · #16To be booked
DataPitch 18% · Market 20%
Against this price: Gap -2pp
the price is fair, so there is nothing to back
Mathias KvistgaardenST · #30To be booked
DataPitch 15% · Market 18%
Against this price: Gap -3pp
the price is fair, so there is nothing to back
Tyreece CampbellLM · #7To be booked
DataPitch 9% · Market 12%
Against this price: Gap -3pp
the price is fair, so there is nothing to back
José CórdobaLCB · #33To be booked
DataPitch 20% · Market 25%
Against this price: Gap -5pp
the price is fair, so there is nothing to back
P. MaghomaCAM · #25To be booked
DataPitch 15% · Market 20%
Against this price: Gap -5pp
the price is fair, so there is nothing to back
Andre BrooksRM · #11To be booked
DataPitch 15% · Market 20%
Against this price: Gap -5pp
the price is fair, so there is nothing to back
Jack StaceyRB · #3To be booked
DataPitch 15% · Market 20%
Against this price: Gap -5pp
the price is fair, so there is nothing to back
Oscar SchwartauLM · #29To be booked
DataPitch 8% · Market 13%
Against this price: Gap -5pp
the price is fair, so there is nothing to back
Kayne RamsayRM · #2To be booked
DataPitch 15% · Market 21%
Against this price: Gap -6pp
the price is fair, so there is nothing to back
Charlie KelmanST · #23To be booked
DataPitch 8% · Market 14%
Against this price: Gap -6pp
the price is fair, so there is nothing to back
Ivan MesíkLB · #18To be booked
DataPitch 20% · Market 27%
Against this price: Gap -7pp
the price is fair, so there is nothing to back
Oliver SkippLDM · #34To be booked
DataPitch 20% · Market 28%
Against this price: Gap -8pp
the price is fair, so there is nothing to back
Danny McNamaraCAM · #20To be booked
DataPitch 15% · Market 23%
Against this price: Gap -8pp
the price is fair, so there is nothing to back
Tyler BindonRB · #44To be booked
DataPitch 13% · Market 21%
Against this price: Gap -8pp
the price is fair, so there is nothing to back
Ruairi McConvilleRCB · #15To be booked
DataPitch 9% · Market 17%
Against this price: Gap -8pp
the price is fair, so there is nothing to back
Lloyd JonesRCB · #5To be booked
DataPitch 14% · Market 23%
Against this price: Gap -9pp
the price is fair, so there is nothing to back
Arthur OkonkwoGK · #13To be booked
DataPitch 0% · Market 9%
Against this price: Gap -9pp
the price is fair, so there is nothing to back
Conor CoventryRDM · #6To be booked
DataPitch 19% · Market 30%
Against this price: Gap -11pp
the price is fair, so there is nothing to back
Billy KoumetioLCB · #12To be booked
DataPitch 13% · Market 25%
Against this price: Gap -12pp
the price is fair, so there is nothing to back
Daniel GrimshawGK · #32To be booked
DataPitch 0% · Market 13%
Against this price: Gap -13pp
the price is fair, so there is nothing to back
Benjamin ChriseneLB · #14To be booked
DataPitch 10% · Market 25%
Against this price: Gap -15pp
the price is fair, so there is nothing to back
Billy KoumetioLCB · #12Headed shot on target
DataPitch 28%
No book has opened this market yet. The price lands here when one does.
Ruairi McConvilleRCB · #15Headed shot on target
DataPitch 22%
No book has opened this market yet. The price lands here when one does.
Lloyd JonesRCB · #5Headed shot on target
DataPitch 19%
No book has opened this market yet. The price lands here when one does.
Arthur OkonkwoGK · #13Headed shot on target
DataPitch 19%
No book has opened this market yet. The price lands here when one does.
Ivan MesíkLB · #18Headed shot on target
DataPitch 13%
No book has opened this market yet. The price lands here when one does.
José CórdobaLCB · #33Headed shot on target
DataPitch 13%
No book has opened this market yet. The price lands here when one does.
Oscar SchwartauLM · #29Headed shot on target
DataPitch 6%
No book has opened this market yet. The price lands here when one does.
Jack StaceyRB · #3Headed shot on target
DataPitch 6%
No book has opened this market yet. The price lands here when one does.
Daniel GrimshawGK · #32Headed shot on target
DataPitch 5%
No book has opened this market yet. The price lands here when one does.
Charlie KelmanST · #23Headed shot on target
DataPitch 5%
No book has opened this market yet. The price lands here when one does.
Mathias KvistgaardenST · #30Headed shot on target
DataPitch 5%
No book has opened this market yet. The price lands here when one does.
Pelle MattssonLDM · #7Headed shot on target
DataPitch 3%
No book has opened this market yet. The price lands here when one does.
Danny McNamaraCAM · #20Headed shot on target
DataPitch 3%
No book has opened this market yet. The price lands here when one does.
Andre BrooksRM · #11Headed shot on target
DataPitch 3%
No book has opened this market yet. The price lands here when one does.
Kayne RamsayRM · #2Headed shot on target
DataPitch 3%
No book has opened this market yet. The price lands here when one does.
Oliver SkippLDM · #34Headed shot on target
DataPitch 2%
No book has opened this market yet. The price lands here when one does.
Conor CoventryRDM · #6Headed shot on target
DataPitch 2%
No book has opened this market yet. The price lands here when one does.
Jacob WrightRDM · #16Headed shot on target
DataPitch 2%
No book has opened this market yet. The price lands here when one does.
Jacob WrightRDM · #16Shot on target from outside the box
DataPitch 27%
No book has opened this market yet. The price lands here when one does.
Andre BrooksRM · #11Shot on target from outside the box
DataPitch 24%
No book has opened this market yet. The price lands here when one does.
Oscar SchwartauLM · #29Shot on target from outside the box
DataPitch 23%
No book has opened this market yet. The price lands here when one does.
Tyreece CampbellLM · #7Shot on target from outside the box
DataPitch 19%
No book has opened this market yet. The price lands here when one does.
Pelle MattssonLDM · #7Shot on target from outside the box
DataPitch 14%
No book has opened this market yet. The price lands here when one does.
Mathias KvistgaardenST · #30Shot on target from outside the box
DataPitch 11%
No book has opened this market yet. The price lands here when one does.
Benjamin ChriseneLB · #14Shot on target from outside the box
DataPitch 10%
No book has opened this market yet. The price lands here when one does.
Oliver SkippLDM · #34Shot on target from outside the box
DataPitch 8%
No book has opened this market yet. The price lands here when one does.
Ruairi McConvilleRCB · #15Shot on target from outside the box
DataPitch 7%
No book has opened this market yet. The price lands here when one does.
José CórdobaLCB · #33Shot on target from outside the box
DataPitch 7%
No book has opened this market yet. The price lands here when one does.
Ivan MesíkLB · #18Shot on target from outside the box
DataPitch 6%
No book has opened this market yet. The price lands here when one does.
Tyler BindonRB · #44Shot on target from outside the box
DataPitch 5%
No book has opened this market yet. The price lands here when one does.
Conor CoventryRDM · #6Shot on target from outside the box
DataPitch 5%
No book has opened this market yet. The price lands here when one does.
Billy KoumetioLCB · #12Shot on target from outside the box
DataPitch 4%
No book has opened this market yet. The price lands here when one does.
P. MaghomaCAM · #25Shot on target from outside the box
DataPitch 3%
No book has opened this market yet. The price lands here when one does.
Charlie KelmanST · #23Shot on target from outside the box
DataPitch 3%
No book has opened this market yet. The price lands here when one does.
Daniel GrimshawGK · #32Shot on target from outside the box
DataPitch 2%
No book has opened this market yet. The price lands here when one does.
Jack StaceyRB · #3Shot on target from outside the box
DataPitch 2%
No book has opened this market yet. The price lands here when one does.
Lloyd JonesRCB · #5Shot on target from outside the box
DataPitch 1%
No book has opened this market yet. The price lands here when one does.
Kayne RamsayRM · #2Shot on target from outside the box
DataPitch 1%
No book has opened this market yet. The price lands here when one does.
Danny McNamaraCAM · #20Shot on target from outside the box
DataPitch 1%
No book has opened this market yet. The price lands here when one does.
Arthur OkonkwoGK · #13Shot on target from outside the box
DataPitch 1%
No book has opened this market yet. The price lands here when one does.
Tap any player for his numbers
Expected XI. Attack at the top, keeper at the bottom.
Match level, never per player. Work down the steps, set the match up the way you see it, then Simulate re-prices every row above in your browser.
How strict you think John Busby will be tonight
Our card model already has his record in it. This is your view on top of ours. Touches: cards, fouls and fouls drawn.
Who has the ball and who is chasing it
The side chasing shoots more and gets fouled more; the side in front tackles more. Touches: every market.
Pick the battles you are watching: an attacker and the defender on him
A battle is one attacker against the defender marking him. Add the duels you expect to shape the game and Simulate works them into both men's numbers. None picked yet, and none is fine.
We apply our matchup pivot to each pair and show you every row it moves. Two battles never stack on one player: the pivot has a ceiling and one battle already takes him there. Touches: fouls, fouls drawn and cards for those players.
We lean on the market where it is sharp
Off means our own numbers stand alone: the cards line stops setting the level and the goalscorer price stops lifting shots. Touches: cards, shots and shots on target.
This re-prices the rows we already evaluated. It does not re-decide which rows to evaluate or re-run the match itself.
average, 144 matches
League average is 3.97 yellows a match.
Home 1.69/match · Away 2.07/match
3.71/match in tight games · 4.04/match in open ones
Price = the latest market price we hold, labelled by the venue quoting it, never a price of ours. Where we hold more than one book on a row, all of them are behind the row's tap with the best marked. A row's colour is the trade in the numbers on show: green positive, red negative, white neutral. Those numbers are the model replayed with your dials, in your browser, until the chip above swaps in DataPitch's own; either way the percentages, the market's own number and the gap between them live behind the row's tap. A row's last-5 history counts starts of 60+ minutes in the last 365 days, most recent first.