v
The rows below run on your numbers, and colour is the verdict: green a positive trade, red a negative one, white neutral. The chip recolours them from our model instead and opens our read on the match.
Peter Bankes runs average on cards, and 2 of the 2 rows we would back are Aston Villa's.
164 players across every market.
Pau TorresLCB · #14Fouls committed
DataPitch 48% · Market 42%
Against this price: Gap +6pp
the price is fair, so there is nothing to back
Rúben DiasRCB · #3Fouls committed
DataPitch 69% · Market 67%
Against this price: Gap +2pp
price too short
Victor LindelöfRCB · #3Fouls committed
DataPitch 42% · Market 45%
Against this price: Gap -3pp
the price is fair, so there is nothing to back
Marc-Israel GuéhiLCB · #6Fouls committed
DataPitch 58% · Market 62%
Against this price: Gap -4pp
at our corrected probability the price is fair
Enzo FernándezCAM · #17Fouls committed
DataPitch 73% · Market 80%
Against this price: Gap -7pp
price too short
Elliot AndersonRDM · #5Fouls committed
DataPitch 74% · Market 83%
Against this price: Gap -9pp
price too short
Philip FodenRM · #47Fouls committed
DataPitch 54% · Market 64%
Against this price: Gap -10pp
price too short
Johan ManzambiCAM · #44Fouls committed
DataPitch 52% · Market 62%
Against this price: Gap -10pp
the price is fair, so there is nothing to back
Nicolas JacksonST · #11Fouls committed
DataPitch 53% · Market 65%
Against this price: Gap -12pp
price too short
Nico O'ReillyLB · #33Fouls committed
DataPitch 70% · Market 83%
Against this price: Gap -13pp
price too short
Erling HaalandST · #9Fouls committed
DataPitch 46% · Market 62%
Against this price: Gap -16pp
the price is fair, so there is nothing to back
Ian MaatsenLB · #22Fouls committed
DataPitch 48% · Market 65%
Against this price: Gap -17pp
price too short
Boubacar KamaraRDM · #8Fouls committed
DataPitch 64% · Market 82%
Against this price: Gap -18pp
price too short
Matheus NunesRB · #27Fouls committed
DataPitch 53% · Market 71%
Against this price: Gap -18pp
price too short
Emiliano BuendíaLM · #10Fouls committed
DataPitch 61% · Market 80%
Against this price: Gap -19pp
price too short
Jérémy DokuLM · #11Fouls committed
DataPitch 52% · Market 71%
Against this price: Gap -19pp
price too short
Ayyoub BouaddiLDM · #32Fouls committed
DataPitch 62% · Market 83%
Against this price: Gap -21pp
price too short
João GomesLDM · #35Fouls committed
DataPitch 65% · Market 88%
Against this price: Gap -23pp
price too short
Matthew CashRB · #2-23ppMatthew CashRB · #2Fouls committed
DataPitch 62% · Market 85%
Against this price: Gap -23pp
price too short
John McGinnRM · #7-24ppJohn McGinnRM · #7Fouls committed
DataPitch 59% · Market 83%
Against this price: Gap -24pp
price too short
Johan ManzambiCAM · #44Fouls drawn
DataPitch 92% · Market 88%
Against this price: Gap +4pp
our number here has no precedent, so we stand it down
João GomesLDM · #35Fouls drawn
DataPitch 70% · Market 75%
Against this price: Gap -5pp
price too short
Enzo FernándezCAM · #17Fouls drawn
DataPitch 74% · Market 80%
Against this price: Gap -6pp
price too short
Jérémy DokuLM · #11Fouls drawn
DataPitch 79% · Market 90%
Against this price: Gap -11pp
price too short
Rúben DiasRCB · #3-11ppRúben DiasRCB · #3Fouls drawn
DataPitch 27% · Market 38%
Against this price: Gap -11pp
the price is fair, so there is nothing to back
Marc-Israel GuéhiLCB · #6Fouls drawn
DataPitch 53% · Market 71%
Against this price: Gap -18pp
price too short
Victor LindelöfRCB · #3Fouls drawn
DataPitch 24% · Market 42%
Against this price: Gap -18pp
the price is fair, so there is nothing to back
Boubacar KamaraRDM · #8Fouls drawn
DataPitch 55% · Market 74%
Against this price: Gap -19pp
price too short
John McGinnRM · #7-20ppJohn McGinnRM · #7Fouls drawn
DataPitch 68% · Market 88%
Against this price: Gap -20pp
price too short
Ayyoub BouaddiLDM · #32Fouls drawn
DataPitch 42% · Market 62%
Against this price: Gap -20pp
the price is fair, so there is nothing to back
Matthew CashRB · #2-20ppMatthew CashRB · #2Fouls drawn
DataPitch 36% · Market 56%
Against this price: Gap -20pp
the price is fair, so there is nothing to back
Elliot AndersonRDM · #5Fouls drawn
DataPitch 62% · Market 83%
Against this price: Gap -21pp
price too short
Erling HaalandST · #9Fouls drawn
DataPitch 39% · Market 60%
Against this price: Gap -21pp
the price is fair, so there is nothing to back
Pau TorresLCB · #14Fouls drawn
DataPitch 19% · Market 42%
Against this price: Gap -23pp
the price is fair, so there is nothing to back
Nicolas JacksonST · #11Fouls drawn
DataPitch 38% · Market 62%
Against this price: Gap -24pp
the price is fair, so there is nothing to back
Philip FodenRM · #47Fouls drawn
DataPitch 50% · Market 75%
Against this price: Gap -25pp
price too short
Nico O'ReillyLB · #33Fouls drawn
DataPitch 31% · Market 60%
Against this price: Gap -29pp
the price is fair, so there is nothing to back
Matheus NunesRB · #27Fouls drawn
DataPitch 34% · Market 64%
Against this price: Gap -30pp
price too short
Ian MaatsenLB · #22Fouls drawn
DataPitch 28% · Market 69%
Against this price: Gap -41pp
price too short
Emiliano BuendíaLM · #10Fouls drawn
DataPitch 36% · Market 82%
Against this price: Gap -46pp
price too short
Marc-Israel GuéhiLCB · #6Tackles
DataPitch 46% · Market 25%
Against this price: Gap +21pp
price too long
Rúben DiasRCB · #3Tackles
DataPitch 24% · Market 27%
Against this price: Gap -3pp
price too long
Nicolas JacksonST · #11Tackles
DataPitch 21% · Market 29%
Against this price: Gap -8pp
the price is fair, so there is nothing to back
Philip FodenRM · #47Tackles
DataPitch 37% · Market 48%
Against this price: Gap -11pp
the price is fair, so there is nothing to back
Enzo FernándezCAM · #17Tackles
DataPitch 48% · Market 60%
Against this price: Gap -12pp
the price is fair, so there is nothing to back
Victor LindelöfRCB · #3Tackles
DataPitch 19% · Market 31%
Against this price: Gap -12pp
the price is fair, so there is nothing to back
Matheus NunesRB · #27Tackles
DataPitch 56% · Market 69%
Against this price: Gap -13pp
price too short
Pau TorresLCB · #14Tackles
DataPitch 31% · Market 45%
Against this price: Gap -14pp
the price is fair, so there is nothing to back
João GomesLDM · #35Tackles
DataPitch 69% · Market 89%
Against this price: Gap -20pp
price too short
Johan ManzambiCAM · #44Tackles
DataPitch 35% · Market 55%
Against this price: Gap -20pp
the price is fair, so there is nothing to back
Jérémy DokuLM · #11Tackles
DataPitch 21% · Market 42%
Against this price: Gap -21pp
the price is fair, so there is nothing to back
John McGinnRM · #7-24ppJohn McGinnRM · #7Tackles
DataPitch 36% · Market 60%
Against this price: Gap -24pp
the price is fair, so there is nothing to back
Elliot AndersonRDM · #5Tackles
DataPitch 57% · Market 82%
Against this price: Gap -25pp
price too short
Boubacar KamaraRDM · #8Tackles
DataPitch 51% · Market 86%
Against this price: Gap -35pp
price too short
Ian MaatsenLB · #22Tackles
DataPitch 43% · Market 80%
Against this price: Gap -37pp
price too short
Ayyoub BouaddiLDM · #32Tackles
DataPitch 42% · Market 80%
Against this price: Gap -38pp
price too short
Nico O'ReillyLB · #33Tackles
DataPitch 33% · Market 71%
Against this price: Gap -38pp
price too short
Matthew CashRB · #2-40ppMatthew CashRB · #2Tackles
DataPitch 49% · Market 89%
Against this price: Gap -40pp
price too short
Emiliano BuendíaLM · #10Tackles
DataPitch 35% · Market 80%
Against this price: Gap -45pp
price too short
Nicolas JacksonST · #11Shots
DataPitch 97% · Market 90%
Against this price: Gap +7pp
we evaluate this market and never bet it
Enzo FernándezCAM · #17Shots
DataPitch 95% · Market 90%
Against this price: Gap +5pp
we evaluate this market and never bet it
Erling HaalandST · #9Shots
DataPitch 100% · Market 98%
Against this price: Gap +2pp
we evaluate this market and never bet it
Pau TorresLCB · #14Shots
DataPitch 33% · Market 31%
Against this price: Gap +2pp
we evaluate this market and never bet it
Matheus NunesRB · #27Shots
DataPitch 34% · Market 33%
Against this price: Gap +1pp
we evaluate this market and never bet it
Rúben DiasRCB · #3Shots
DataPitch 36% · Market 38%
Against this price: Gap -2pp
we evaluate this market and never bet it
Matthew CashRB · #2Shots
DataPitch 47% · Market 50%
Against this price: Gap -3pp
we evaluate this market and never bet it
Elliot AndersonRDM · #5Shots
DataPitch 74% · Market 78%
Against this price: Gap -4pp
we evaluate this market and never bet it
Victor LindelöfRCB · #3Shots
DataPitch 19% · Market 23%
Against this price: Gap -4pp
we evaluate this market and never bet it
Johan ManzambiCAM · #44Shots
DataPitch 83% · Market 90%
Against this price: Gap -7pp
we evaluate this market and never bet it
Nico O'ReillyLB · #33Shots
DataPitch 64% · Market 73%
Against this price: Gap -9pp
we evaluate this market and never bet it
Ian MaatsenLB · #22Shots
DataPitch 59% · Market 69%
Against this price: Gap -10pp
we evaluate this market and never bet it
Boubacar KamaraRDM · #8Shots
DataPitch 17% · Market 31%
Against this price: Gap -14pp
we evaluate this market and never bet it
Emiliano BuendíaLM · #10Shots
DataPitch 64% · Market 88%
Against this price: Gap -24pp
we evaluate this market and never bet it
Jérémy DokuLM · #11Shots
DataPitch 56% · Market 88%
Against this price: Gap -32pp
we evaluate this market and never bet it
Philip FodenRM · #47Shots
DataPitch 56% · Market 91%
Against this price: Gap -35pp
we evaluate this market and never bet it
João GomesLDM · #35Shots
DataPitch 20% · Market 55%
Against this price: Gap -35pp
we evaluate this market and never bet it
Marc-Israel GuéhiLCB · #6Shots
DataPitch 21% · Market 62%
Against this price: Gap -41pp
we evaluate this market and never bet it
Ayyoub BouaddiLDM · #32Shots
DataPitch 10% · Market 58%
Against this price: Gap -48pp
we evaluate this market and never bet it
John McGinnRM · #7-51ppJohn McGinnRM · #7Shots
DataPitch 20% · Market 71%
Against this price: Gap -51pp
we evaluate this market and never bet it
Pau TorresLCB · #14Shots on target
DataPitch 22% · Market 13%
Against this price: Gap +9pp
we evaluate this market and never bet it
Rúben DiasRCB · #3Shots on target
DataPitch 22% · Market 15%
Against this price: Gap +7pp
we evaluate this market and never bet it
Matheus NunesRB · #27Shots on target
DataPitch 17% · Market 13%
Against this price: Gap +4pp
we evaluate this market and never bet it
Matthew CashRB · #2Shots on target
DataPitch 20% · Market 18%
Against this price: Gap +2pp
we evaluate this market and never bet it
Nicolas JacksonST · #11Shots on target
DataPitch 63% · Market 65%
Against this price: Gap -2pp
we evaluate this market and never bet it
Ian MaatsenLB · #22Shots on target
DataPitch 22% · Market 25%
Against this price: Gap -3pp
we evaluate this market and never bet it
Boubacar KamaraRDM · #8Shots on target
DataPitch 14% · Market 17%
Against this price: Gap -3pp
we evaluate this market and never bet it
João GomesLDM · #35Shots on target
DataPitch 12% · Market 17%
Against this price: Gap -5pp
we evaluate this market and never bet it
Victor LindelöfRCB · #3Shots on target
DataPitch 6% · Market 14%
Against this price: Gap -8pp
we evaluate this market and never bet it
Elliot AndersonRDM · #5Shots on target
DataPitch 18% · Market 27%
Against this price: Gap -9pp
we evaluate this market and never bet it
Marc-Israel GuéhiLCB · #6Shots on target
DataPitch 19% · Market 29%
Against this price: Gap -10pp
we evaluate this market and never bet it
Erling HaalandST · #9Shots on target
DataPitch 71% · Market 86%
Against this price: Gap -15pp
we evaluate this market and never bet it
John McGinnRM · #7-16ppJohn McGinnRM · #7Shots on target
DataPitch 22% · Market 38%
Against this price: Gap -16pp
we evaluate this market and never bet it
Nico O'ReillyLB · #33Shots on target
DataPitch 23% · Market 40%
Against this price: Gap -17pp
we evaluate this market and never bet it
Enzo FernándezCAM · #17Shots on target
DataPitch 40% · Market 58%
Against this price: Gap -18pp
we evaluate this market and never bet it
Ayyoub BouaddiLDM · #32Shots on target
DataPitch 7% · Market 25%
Against this price: Gap -18pp
we evaluate this market and never bet it
Johan ManzambiCAM · #44Shots on target
DataPitch 40% · Market 60%
Against this price: Gap -20pp
we evaluate this market and never bet it
Emiliano BuendíaLM · #10Shots on target
DataPitch 28% · Market 48%
Against this price: Gap -20pp
we evaluate this market and never bet it
Jérémy DokuLM · #11Shots on target
DataPitch 38% · Market 62%
Against this price: Gap -24pp
we evaluate this market and never bet it
Philip FodenRM · #47Shots on target
DataPitch 38% · Market 67%
Against this price: Gap -29pp
we evaluate this market and never bet it
João GomesLDM · #35To be booked
DataPitch 31% · Market 27%
Against this price: Gap +4pp
a calibrated probability, graded against what happened
Pau TorresLCB · #14To be booked
DataPitch 9% · Market 13%
Against this price: Gap -4pp
the price is fair, so there is nothing to back
Enzo FernándezCAM · #17To be booked
DataPitch 20% · Market 25%
Against this price: Gap -5pp
the price is fair, so there is nothing to back
Marc-Israel GuéhiLCB · #6To be booked
DataPitch 13% · Market 18%
Against this price: Gap -5pp
the price is fair, so there is nothing to back
Matthew CashRB · #2To be booked
DataPitch 23% · Market 29%
Against this price: Gap -6pp
the price is fair, so there is nothing to back
Victor LindelöfRCB · #3To be booked
DataPitch 8% · Market 14%
Against this price: Gap -6pp
the price is fair, so there is nothing to back
John McGinnRM · #7To be booked
DataPitch 20% · Market 27%
Against this price: Gap -7pp
the price is fair, so there is nothing to back
Nicolas JacksonST · #11To be booked
DataPitch 15% · Market 23%
Against this price: Gap -8pp
the price is fair, so there is nothing to back
Rúben DiasRCB · #3To be booked
DataPitch 15% · Market 23%
Against this price: Gap -8pp
the price is fair, so there is nothing to back
Johan ManzambiCAM · #44To be booked
DataPitch 10% · Market 18%
Against this price: Gap -8pp
the price is fair, so there is nothing to back
Elliot AndersonRDM · #5To be booked
DataPitch 16% · Market 25%
Against this price: Gap -9pp
the price is fair, so there is nothing to back
Philip FodenRM · #47To be booked
DataPitch 11% · Market 20%
Against this price: Gap -9pp
the price is fair, so there is nothing to back
Erling HaalandST · #9To be booked
DataPitch 9% · Market 18%
Against this price: Gap -9pp
the price is fair, so there is nothing to back
Nico O'ReillyLB · #33To be booked
DataPitch 14% · Market 25%
Against this price: Gap -11pp
the price is fair, so there is nothing to back
Zion SuzukiGK · #1-11ppZion SuzukiGK · #1To be booked
DataPitch 0% · Market 11%
Against this price: Gap -11pp
the price is fair, so there is nothing to back
Ian MaatsenLB · #22To be booked
DataPitch 19% · Market 31%
Against this price: Gap -12pp
the price is fair, so there is nothing to back
Boubacar KamaraRDM · #8To be booked
DataPitch 16% · Market 30%
Against this price: Gap -14pp
the price is fair, so there is nothing to back
Matheus NunesRB · #27To be booked
DataPitch 11% · Market 25%
Against this price: Gap -14pp
the price is fair, so there is nothing to back
Jérémy DokuLM · #11To be booked
DataPitch 4% · Market 18%
Against this price: Gap -14pp
the price is fair, so there is nothing to back
Ayyoub BouaddiLDM · #32To be booked
DataPitch 14% · Market 29%
Against this price: Gap -15pp
the price is fair, so there is nothing to back
Emiliano BuendíaLM · #10To be booked
DataPitch 11% · Market 27%
Against this price: Gap -16pp
the price is fair, so there is nothing to back
Gianluigi DonnarummaGK · #1To be booked
DataPitch 0% · Market 18%
Against this price: Gap -18pp
the price is fair, so there is nothing to back
Pau TorresLCB · #14Headed shot on target
DataPitch 24% · Market 7%
Against this price: Gap +17pp
wins headers against a smaller marker (191cm over a 182cm back line); no corner line priced for his side yet
Matthew CashRB · #2+10ppMatthew CashRB · #2Headed shot on target
DataPitch 14% · Market 4%
Against this price: Gap +10pp
wins headers against a smaller marker (185cm over a 182cm back line); no corner line priced for his side yet
Matheus NunesRB · #27Headed shot on target
DataPitch 11% · Market 2%
Against this price: Gap +9pp
level in the air (183cm against a 182cm back line); no corner line priced for his side yet
Rúben DiasRCB · #3Headed shot on target
DataPitch 17% · Market 10%
Against this price: Gap +7pp
wins headers against a smaller marker (187cm over a 182cm back line); no corner line priced for his side yet
Victor LindelöfRCB · #3Headed shot on target
DataPitch 17% · Market 13%
Against this price: Gap +4pp
wins headers against a smaller marker (187cm over a 182cm back line); no corner line priced for his side yet
Boubacar KamaraRDM · #8Headed shot on target
DataPitch 6% · Market 7%
Against this price: Gap -1pp
level in the air (184cm against a 182cm back line); no corner line priced for his side yet
Ian MaatsenLB · #22Headed shot on target
DataPitch 4% · Market 5%
Against this price: Gap -1pp
gives up height in the air (167cm against a 182cm back line); no corner line priced for his side yet
Nicolas JacksonST · #11Headed shot on target
DataPitch 16% · Market 18%
Against this price: Gap -2pp
wins headers against a smaller marker (186cm over a 182cm back line); no corner line priced for his side yet
João GomesLDM · #35Headed shot on target
DataPitch 2% · Market 5%
Against this price: Gap -3pp
gives up height in the air (173cm against a 182cm back line); no corner line priced for his side yet
Erling HaalandST · #9Headed shot on target
DataPitch 34% · Market 38%
Against this price: Gap -4pp
wins headers against a smaller marker (195cm over a 182cm back line); no corner line priced for his side yet
John McGinnRM · #7Headed shot on target
DataPitch 3% · Market 7%
Against this price: Gap -4pp
gives up height in the air (178cm against a 182cm back line); no corner line priced for his side yet
Jérémy DokuLM · #11Headed shot on target
DataPitch 2% · Market 6%
Against this price: Gap -4pp
gives up height in the air (173cm against a 182cm back line); no corner line priced for his side yet
Philip FodenRM · #47Headed shot on target
DataPitch 2% · Market 7%
Against this price: Gap -5pp
gives up height in the air (171cm against a 182cm back line); no corner line priced for his side yet
Elliot AndersonRDM · #5Headed shot on target
DataPitch 3% · Market 10%
Against this price: Gap -7pp
gives up height in the air (179cm against a 182cm back line); no corner line priced for his side yet
Enzo FernándezCAM · #17Headed shot on target
DataPitch 3% · Market 13%
Against this price: Gap -10pp
gives up height in the air (178cm against a 182cm back line); no corner line priced for his side yet
Marc-Israel GuéhiLCB · #6Headed shot on target
DataPitch 9% · Market 20%
Against this price: Gap -11pp
level in the air (182cm against a 182cm back line); no corner line priced for his side yet
Emiliano BuendíaLM · #10Headed shot on target
DataPitch 2% · Market 15%
Against this price: Gap -13pp
gives up height in the air (172cm against a 182cm back line); no corner line priced for his side yet
Nico O'ReillyLB · #33Headed shot on target
DataPitch 5% · Market 22%
Against this price: Gap -17pp
gives up height in the air (177cm against a 182cm back line); no corner line priced for his side yet
Johan ManzambiCAM · #44Headed shot on target
DataPitch 5% · Market 29%
Against this price: Gap -24pp
level in the air (182cm against a 182cm back line); no corner line priced for his side yet
Gianluigi DonnarummaGK · #1Headed shot on target
DataPitch 17%
No book has opened this market yet. The price lands here when one does.
Zion SuzukiGK · #1Headed shot on target
DataPitch 11%
No book has opened this market yet. The price lands here when one does.
John McGinnRM · #7Shot on target from outside the box
DataPitch 26% · Market 17%
Against this price: Gap +9pp
shoots from range 0.9 times a game across 15 logged matches
Nicolas JacksonST · #11Shot on target from outside the box
DataPitch 25% · Market 18%
Against this price: Gap +7pp
shoots from range 0.8 times a game across 14 logged matches
Elliot AndersonRDM · #5Shot on target from outside the box
DataPitch 21% · Market 14%
Against this price: Gap +7pp
shoots from range 0.7 times a game across 15 logged matches
Emiliano BuendíaLM · #10Shot on target from outside the box
DataPitch 25% · Market 23%
Against this price: Gap +2pp
shoots from range 0.8 times a game across 12 logged matches
Rúben DiasRCB · #3Shot on target from outside the box
DataPitch 4% · Market 4%
Against this price: Gap +0pp
shoots from range 0.1 times a game across 15 logged matches
Ian MaatsenLB · #22Shot on target from outside the box
DataPitch 8% · Market 9%
Against this price: Gap -1pp
shoots from range 0.3 times a game across 7 logged matches
Pau TorresLCB · #14Shot on target from outside the box
DataPitch 1% · Market 2%
Against this price: Gap -1pp
no shots from outside the box in the 10 matches we have logged
Matthew CashRB · #2Shot on target from outside the box
DataPitch 9% · Market 11%
Against this price: Gap -2pp
shoots from range 0.3 times a game across 13 logged matches
Ayyoub BouaddiLDM · #32Shot on target from outside the box
DataPitch 4% · Market 7%
Against this price: Gap -3pp
shoots from range 0.1 times a game across 15 logged matches
Erling HaalandST · #9Shot on target from outside the box
DataPitch 11% · Market 15%
Against this price: Gap -4pp
shoots from range 0.3 times a game across 15 logged matches
Boubacar KamaraRDM · #8Shot on target from outside the box
DataPitch 3% · Market 7%
Against this price: Gap -4pp
shoots from range 0.1 times a game across 12 logged matches
Matheus NunesRB · #27Shot on target from outside the box
DataPitch 1% · Market 5%
Against this price: Gap -4pp
no shots from outside the box in the 14 matches we have logged
Marc-Israel GuéhiLCB · #6Shot on target from outside the box
DataPitch 1% · Market 5%
Against this price: Gap -4pp
no shots from outside the box in the 15 matches we have logged
Victor LindelöfRCB · #3Shot on target from outside the box
DataPitch 1% · Market 5%
Against this price: Gap -4pp
no shots from outside the box in the 15 matches we have logged
Enzo FernándezCAM · #17Shot on target from outside the box
DataPitch 31% · Market 36%
Against this price: Gap -5pp
shoots from range 1.0 times a game across 15 logged matches
Johan ManzambiCAM · #44Shot on target from outside the box
DataPitch 25% · Market 33%
Against this price: Gap -8pp
shoots from range 0.8 times a game across 13 logged matches
João GomesLDM · #35Shot on target from outside the box
DataPitch 1% · Market 10%
Against this price: Gap -9pp
no shots from outside the box in the 8 matches we have logged
Nico O'ReillyLB · #33Shot on target from outside the box
DataPitch 6% · Market 17%
Against this price: Gap -11pp
shoots from range 0.2 times a game across 15 logged matches
Jérémy DokuLM · #11Shot on target from outside the box
DataPitch 5% · Market 31%
Against this price: Gap -26pp
shoots from range 0.1 times a game across 11 logged matches
Philip FodenRM · #47Shot on target from outside the box
DataPitch 11% · Market 45%
Against this price: Gap -34pp
shoots from range 0.3 times a game across 9 logged matches
Gianluigi DonnarummaGK · #1Shot on target from outside the box
DataPitch 1%
No book has opened this market yet. The price lands here when one does.
Zion SuzukiGK · #1Shot on target from outside the box
DataPitch 1%
No book has opened this market yet. The price lands here when one does.
Tap any player for his numbers
Expected XI. Attack at the top, keeper at the bottom.
Match level, never per player. Work down the steps, set the match up the way you see it, then Simulate re-prices every row above in your browser.
How strict you think Peter Bankes will be tonight
Our card model already has his record in it. This is your view on top of ours. Touches: cards, fouls and fouls drawn.
Who has the ball and who is chasing it
The side chasing shoots more and gets fouled more; the side in front tackles more. Touches: every market.
Pick the battles you are watching: an attacker and the defender on him
A battle is one attacker against the defender marking him. Add the duels you expect to shape the game and Simulate works them into both men's numbers. None picked yet, and none is fine.
We apply our matchup pivot to each pair and show you every row it moves. Two battles never stack on one player: the pivot has a ceiling and one battle already takes him there. Touches: fouls, fouls drawn and cards for those players.
We lean on the market where it is sharp
Off means our own numbers stand alone: the cards line stops setting the level and the goalscorer price stops lifting shots. Touches: cards, shots and shots on target.
This re-prices the rows we already evaluated. It does not re-decide which rows to evaluate or re-run the match itself.
average, 232 matches
League average is 3.97 yellows a match.
Home 1.81/match · Away 2.23/match
3.72/match in tight games · 3.86/match in open ones
Price = the latest market price we hold, labelled by the venue quoting it, never a price of ours. Where we hold more than one book on a row, all of them are behind the row's tap with the best marked. A row's colour is the trade in the numbers on show: green positive, red negative, white neutral. Those numbers are the model replayed with your dials, in your browser, until the chip above swaps in DataPitch's own; either way the percentages, the market's own number and the gap between them live behind the row's tap. A row's last-5 history counts starts of 60+ minutes in the last 365 days, most recent first.