v
The rows below run on your numbers, and colour is the verdict: green a positive trade, red a negative one, white neutral. The chip recolours them from our model instead and opens our read on the match.
S. Evans runs average on cards, and 1 of the 1 rows we would back are Auckland's.
121 players across every market.
Nicolas MilanovicRM · #14Fouls committed
DataPitch 69% · Market 71%
Against this price: Gap -2pp
price too short
Lachlan BaylissCAM · #10Fouls committed
DataPitch 62% · Market 65%
Against this price: Gap -3pp
price too short
Lachlan BrookRM · #77Fouls committed
DataPitch 52% · Market 56%
Against this price: Gap -4pp
the price is fair, so there is nothing to back
Anthony PantazopoulosLCB · #22Fouls committed
DataPitch 49% · Market 58%
Against this price: Gap -9pp
the price is fair, so there is nothing to back
Angus ThurgateLDM · #32Fouls committed
DataPitch 54% · Market 69%
Against this price: Gap -15pp
price too short
Nando PijnakerLCB · #4Fouls committed
DataPitch 51% · Market 67%
Against this price: Gap -16pp
price too short
Felipe GallegosLDM · #8Fouls committed
DataPitch 59% · Market 78%
Against this price: Gap -19pp
price too short
Logan RogersonLM · #27Fouls committed
DataPitch 48% · Market 67%
Against this price: Gap -19pp
price too short
Jake BrimmerRDM · #22Fouls committed
DataPitch 67% · Market 88%
Against this price: Gap -21pp
price too short
2Hiroki SakaiRB · #2-23ppHiroki SakaiRB · #2Fouls committed
DataPitch 55% · Market 78%
Against this price: Gap -23pp
price too short
Dylan SciclunaRDM · #8Fouls committed
DataPitch 59% · Market 88%
Against this price: Gap -29pp
price too short
9Sam CosgroveST · #9-30ppSam CosgroveST · #9Fouls committed
DataPitch 61% · Market 91%
Against this price: Gap -30pp
price too short
A. Gersbach+0ppA. GersbachFouls committed
DataPitch 60% · Market 60%
Against this price: Gap +0pp
not in the confirmed eleven
Callan ElliotD (sub) · #17Fouls committed
DataPitch 69% · Market 75%
Against this price: Gap -6pp
not in the confirmed eleven
Aydan HammondF (sub) · #7Fouls committed
DataPitch 40% · Market 78%
Against this price: Gap -38pp
not in the confirmed eleven
Anthony PantazopoulosLCB · #22Fouls drawn
DataPitch 37% · Market 42%
Against this price: Gap -5pp
at our corrected probability the price is fair
Lachlan BrookRM · #77Fouls drawn
DataPitch 40% · Market 50%
Against this price: Gap -10pp
the price is fair, so there is nothing to back
Nicolas MilanovicRM · #14Fouls drawn
DataPitch 62% · Market 74%
Against this price: Gap -12pp
price too short
2Hiroki SakaiRB · #2-16ppHiroki SakaiRB · #2Fouls drawn
DataPitch 49% · Market 65%
Against this price: Gap -16pp
price too short
Felipe GallegosLDM · #8Fouls drawn
DataPitch 42% · Market 58%
Against this price: Gap -16pp
the price is fair, so there is nothing to back
9Sam CosgroveST · #9-19ppSam CosgroveST · #9Fouls drawn
DataPitch 64% · Market 83%
Against this price: Gap -19pp
price too short
Lachlan BaylissCAM · #10Fouls drawn
DataPitch 58% · Market 77%
Against this price: Gap -19pp
price too short
Logan RogersonLM · #27Fouls drawn
DataPitch 36% · Market 55%
Against this price: Gap -19pp
the price is fair, so there is nothing to back
Angus ThurgateLDM · #32Fouls drawn
DataPitch 59% · Market 80%
Against this price: Gap -21pp
price too short
Dylan SciclunaRDM · #8Fouls drawn
DataPitch 62% · Market 85%
Against this price: Gap -23pp
price too short
Jake BrimmerRDM · #22Fouls drawn
DataPitch 49% · Market 83%
Against this price: Gap -34pp
price too short
Nando PijnakerLCB · #4Fouls drawn
DataPitch 12% · Market 50%
Against this price: Gap -38pp
the price is fair, so there is nothing to back
A. Gersbach-16ppA. GersbachFouls drawn
DataPitch 34% · Market 50%
Against this price: Gap -16pp
not in the confirmed eleven
Callan ElliotD (sub) · #17Fouls drawn
DataPitch 32% · Market 48%
Against this price: Gap -16pp
not in the confirmed eleven
Aydan HammondF (sub) · #7Fouls drawn
DataPitch 27% · Market 78%
Against this price: Gap -51pp
not in the confirmed eleven
Hiroki SakaiRB · #2Shots
DataPitch 41% · Market 33%
Against this price: Gap +8pp
we evaluate this market and never bet it
Lachlan BrookRM · #77Shots
DataPitch 94% · Market 91%
Against this price: Gap +3pp
we evaluate this market and never bet it
Lachlan BaylissCAM · #10Shots
DataPitch 84% · Market 82%
Against this price: Gap +2pp
we evaluate this market and never bet it
Nando PijnakerLCB · #4Shots
DataPitch 38% · Market 42%
Against this price: Gap -4pp
we evaluate this market and never bet it
Jarrod CarluccioLB · #17Shots
DataPitch 36% · Market 45%
Against this price: Gap -9pp
we evaluate this market and never bet it
Nicolas MilanovicRM · #14Shots
DataPitch 84% · Market 94%
Against this price: Gap -10pp
we evaluate this market and never bet it
9Sam CosgroveST · #9-12ppSam CosgroveST · #9Shots
DataPitch 79% · Market 91%
Against this price: Gap -12pp
we evaluate this market and never bet it
Jake BrimmerRDM · #22Shots
DataPitch 55% · Market 75%
Against this price: Gap -20pp
we evaluate this market and never bet it
Anthony PantazopoulosLCB · #22Shots
DataPitch 47% · Market 69%
Against this price: Gap -22pp
we evaluate this market and never bet it
Felipe GallegosLDM · #8Shots
DataPitch 43% · Market 67%
Against this price: Gap -24pp
we evaluate this market and never bet it
Angus ThurgateLDM · #32Shots
DataPitch 34% · Market 60%
Against this price: Gap -26pp
we evaluate this market and never bet it
Dylan SciclunaRDM · #8Shots
DataPitch 27% · Market 55%
Against this price: Gap -28pp
we evaluate this market and never bet it
Logan RogersonLM · #27Shots
DataPitch 50% · Market 83%
Against this price: Gap -33pp
we evaluate this market and never bet it
A. Gersbach-3ppA. GersbachShots
DataPitch 33% · Market 36%
Against this price: Gap -3pp
we evaluate this market and never bet it
Callan ElliotD (sub) · #17Shots
DataPitch 15% · Market 33%
Against this price: Gap -18pp
we evaluate this market and never bet it
Aydan HammondF (sub) · #7Shots
DataPitch 59% · Market 94%
Against this price: Gap -35pp
we evaluate this market and never bet it
Jarrod CarluccioLB · #17Shots on target
DataPitch 23% · Market 15%
Against this price: Gap +8pp
we evaluate this market and never bet it
Hiroki SakaiRB · #2Shots on target
DataPitch 21% · Market 13%
Against this price: Gap +8pp
we evaluate this market and never bet it
Nando PijnakerLCB · #4Shots on target
DataPitch 21% · Market 17%
Against this price: Gap +4pp
we evaluate this market and never bet it
Felipe GallegosLDM · #8Shots on target
DataPitch 19% · Market 17%
Against this price: Gap +2pp
we evaluate this market and never bet it
Jake BrimmerRDM · #22Shots on target
DataPitch 23% · Market 25%
Against this price: Gap -2pp
we evaluate this market and never bet it
Anthony PantazopoulosLCB · #22Shots on target
DataPitch 29% · Market 33%
Against this price: Gap -4pp
we evaluate this market and never bet it
Angus ThurgateLDM · #32Shots on target
DataPitch 23% · Market 27%
Against this price: Gap -4pp
we evaluate this market and never bet it
Lachlan BaylissCAM · #10Shots on target
DataPitch 35% · Market 42%
Against this price: Gap -7pp
we evaluate this market and never bet it
Lachlan BrookRM · #77Shots on target
DataPitch 47% · Market 60%
Against this price: Gap -13pp
we evaluate this market and never bet it
Logan RogersonLM · #27Shots on target
DataPitch 29% · Market 48%
Against this price: Gap -19pp
we evaluate this market and never bet it
Dylan SciclunaRDM · #8Shots on target
DataPitch 0% · Market 20%
Against this price: Gap -20pp
we evaluate this market and never bet it
9Sam CosgroveST · #9-23ppSam CosgroveST · #9Shots on target
DataPitch 46% · Market 69%
Against this price: Gap -23pp
we evaluate this market and never bet it
Nicolas MilanovicRM · #14Shots on target
DataPitch 38% · Market 71%
Against this price: Gap -33pp
we evaluate this market and never bet it
A. Gersbach+6ppA. GersbachShots on target
DataPitch 21% · Market 15%
Against this price: Gap +6pp
we evaluate this market and never bet it
Callan ElliotD (sub) · #17Shots on target
DataPitch 6% · Market 13%
Against this price: Gap -7pp
we evaluate this market and never bet it
Aydan HammondF (sub) · #7Shots on target
DataPitch 42% · Market 56%
Against this price: Gap -14pp
we evaluate this market and never bet it
The books expect about 3.5 cards.
Sam CosgroveST · #9To be booked
DataPitch 29% · Market 23%
Against this price: Gap +6pp
a calibrated probability, graded against what happened
Nando PijnakerLCB · #4To be booked
DataPitch 24% · Market 20%
Against this price: Gap +4pp
the price is fair, so there is nothing to back
Panashe MadanhaRB · #36To be booked
DataPitch 19% · Market 15%
Against this price: Gap +4pp
not in the expected eleven
Angus ThurgateLDM · #32To be booked
DataPitch 23% · Market 23%
Against this price: Gap +0pp
the price is fair, so there is nothing to back
Jake BrimmerRDM · #22To be booked
DataPitch 14% · Market 14%
Against this price: Gap +0pp
the price is fair, so there is nothing to back
Francis de VriesLB · #15To be booked
DataPitch 11% · Market 12%
Against this price: Gap -1pp
not in the expected eleven
Anthony PantazopoulosLCB · #22To be booked
DataPitch 21% · Market 23%
Against this price: Gap -2pp
the price is fair, so there is nothing to back
Nicolas MilanovicRM · #14To be booked
DataPitch 19% · Market 22%
Against this price: Gap -3pp
the price is fair, so there is nothing to back
Logan RogersonLM · #27To be booked
DataPitch 8% · Market 11%
Against this price: Gap -3pp
the price is fair, so there is nothing to back
Germán FerreyraRCB · #33To be booked
DataPitch 24% · Market 28%
Against this price: Gap -4pp
not in the expected eleven
Dylan SciclunaRDM · #8To be booked
DataPitch 21% · Market 25%
Against this price: Gap -4pp
the price is fair, so there is nothing to back
Jarrod CarluccioLB · #17To be booked
DataPitch 19% · Market 23%
Against this price: Gap -4pp
the price is fair, so there is nothing to back
Lachlan BrookRM · #77To be booked
DataPitch 12% · Market 18%
Against this price: Gap -6pp
the price is fair, so there is nothing to back
Felipe GallegosLDM · #8To be booked
DataPitch 20% · Market 28%
Against this price: Gap -8pp
not offered at this price
2Hiroki SakaiRB · #2-10ppHiroki SakaiRB · #2To be booked
DataPitch 17% · Market 27%
Against this price: Gap -10pp
the price is fair, so there is nothing to back
Lachlan BaylissCAM · #10To be booked
DataPitch 19% · Market 31%
Against this price: Gap -12pp
the price is fair, so there is nothing to back
Miguel Di PizioCAM · #10To be booked
DataPitch 0% · Market 15%
Against this price: Gap -15pp
not in the expected eleven
1Michael WoudGK · #1-17ppMichael WoudGK · #1To be booked
DataPitch 0% · Market 17%
Against this price: Gap -17pp
the price is fair, so there is nothing to back
26
Brandon BorelloST · #26Brandon BorelloST · #26To be booked
DataPitch 20%
No book has opened this market yet. The price lands here when one does.
A. Gersbach-3ppA. GersbachTo be booked
DataPitch 14% · Market 17%
Against this price: Gap -3pp
not in the confirmed eleven
Callan ElliotD (sub) · #17To be booked
DataPitch 23% · Market 28%
Against this price: Gap -5pp
not in the confirmed eleven
8Steven UgarkovićM (sub) · #8Steven UgarkovićM (sub) · #8To be booked
DataPitch 12%
No book has opened this market yet. The price lands here when one does.
9Hiroshi IbusukiF (sub) · #9Hiroshi IbusukiF (sub) · #9To be booked
DataPitch 11%
No book has opened this market yet. The price lands here when one does.
23Jordan HolmesG (sub) · #23Jordan HolmesG (sub) · #23To be booked
DataPitch 5%
No book has opened this market yet. The price lands here when one does.
Sam CosgroveST · #9Headed shot on target
DataPitch 31%
No book has opened this market yet. The price lands here when one does.
Nando PijnakerLCB · #4Headed shot on target
DataPitch 24%
No book has opened this market yet. The price lands here when one does.
Michael WoudGK · #1Headed shot on target
DataPitch 16%
No book has opened this market yet. The price lands here when one does.
Hiroki SakaiRB · #2Headed shot on target
DataPitch 14%
No book has opened this market yet. The price lands here when one does.
20Lawrence ThomasGK · #20Lawrence ThomasGK · #20Headed shot on target
DataPitch 9%
No book has opened this market yet. The price lands here when one does.
Nicolas MilanovicRM · #14Headed shot on target
DataPitch 5%
No book has opened this market yet. The price lands here when one does.
Logan RogersonLM · #27Headed shot on target
DataPitch 5%
No book has opened this market yet. The price lands here when one does.
26Brandon BorelloST · #26Brandon BorelloST · #26Headed shot on target
DataPitch 4%
No book has opened this market yet. The price lands here when one does.
Germán FerreyraRCB · #33Headed shot on target
DataPitch 4%
No book has opened this market yet. The price lands here when one does.
Lachlan BrookRM · #77Headed shot on target
DataPitch 3%
No book has opened this market yet. The price lands here when one does.
Felipe GallegosLDM · #8Headed shot on target
DataPitch 2%
No book has opened this market yet. The price lands here when one does.
Jake BrimmerRDM · #22Headed shot on target
DataPitch 2%
No book has opened this market yet. The price lands here when one does.
Angus ThurgateLDM · #32Headed shot on target
DataPitch 2%
No book has opened this market yet. The price lands here when one does.
Lachlan BaylissCAM · #10Shot on target from outside the box
DataPitch 22%
No book has opened this market yet. The price lands here when one does.
26Brandon BorelloST · #26Brandon BorelloST · #26Shot on target from outside the box
DataPitch 22%
No book has opened this market yet. The price lands here when one does.
Nicolas MilanovicRM · #14Shot on target from outside the box
DataPitch 22%
No book has opened this market yet. The price lands here when one does.
21L. GillionLM · #21L. GillionLM · #21Shot on target from outside the box
DataPitch 20%
No book has opened this market yet. The price lands here when one does.
Miguel Di PizioCAM · #10Shot on target from outside the box
DataPitch 18%
No book has opened this market yet. The price lands here when one does.
Lachlan BrookRM · #77Shot on target from outside the box
DataPitch 18%
No book has opened this market yet. The price lands here when one does.
Sam CosgroveST · #9Shot on target from outside the box
DataPitch 14%
No book has opened this market yet. The price lands here when one does.
Felipe GallegosLDM · #8Shot on target from outside the box
DataPitch 12%
No book has opened this market yet. The price lands here when one does.
Jake BrimmerRDM · #22Shot on target from outside the box
DataPitch 10%
No book has opened this market yet. The price lands here when one does.
Angus ThurgateLDM · #32Shot on target from outside the box
DataPitch 5%
No book has opened this market yet. The price lands here when one does.
Dylan SciclunaRDM · #8Shot on target from outside the box
DataPitch 5%
No book has opened this market yet. The price lands here when one does.
Anthony PantazopoulosLCB · #22Shot on target from outside the box
DataPitch 4%
No book has opened this market yet. The price lands here when one does.
Jarrod CarluccioLB · #17Shot on target from outside the box
DataPitch 3%
No book has opened this market yet. The price lands here when one does.
Panashe MadanhaRB · #36Shot on target from outside the box
DataPitch 3%
No book has opened this market yet. The price lands here when one does.
Germán FerreyraRCB · #33Shot on target from outside the box
DataPitch 2%
No book has opened this market yet. The price lands here when one does.
Hiroki SakaiRB · #2Shot on target from outside the box
DataPitch 2%
No book has opened this market yet. The price lands here when one does.
25Luka VicelichRCB · #25Luka VicelichRCB · #25Shot on target from outside the box
DataPitch 2%
No book has opened this market yet. The price lands here when one does.
20Lawrence ThomasGK · #20Lawrence ThomasGK · #20Shot on target from outside the box
DataPitch 1%
No book has opened this market yet. The price lands here when one does.
Logan RogersonLM · #27Shot on target from outside the box
DataPitch 1%
No book has opened this market yet. The price lands here when one does.
Michael WoudGK · #1Shot on target from outside the box
DataPitch 1%
No book has opened this market yet. The price lands here when one does.
Nando PijnakerLCB · #4Shot on target from outside the box
DataPitch 1%
No book has opened this market yet. The price lands here when one does.
Francis de VriesLB · #15Shot on target from outside the box
DataPitch 1%
No book has opened this market yet. The price lands here when one does.
Tap any player for his numbers
Expected XI. Attack at the top, keeper at the bottom.
Match level, never per player. Work down the steps, set the match up the way you see it, then Simulate re-prices every row above in your browser.
How strict you think S. Evans will be tonight
Our card model already has his record in it. This is your view on top of ours. Touches: cards, fouls and fouls drawn.
Who has the ball and who is chasing it
The side chasing shoots more and gets fouled more; the side in front tackles more. Touches: every market.
Pick the battles you are watching: an attacker and the defender on him
A battle is one attacker against the defender marking him. Add the duels you expect to shape the game and Simulate works them into both men's numbers. None picked yet, and none is fine.
We apply our matchup pivot to each pair and show you every row it moves. Two battles never stack on one player: the pivot has a ceiling and one battle already takes him there. Touches: fouls, fouls drawn and cards for those players.
We lean on the market where it is sharp
Off means our own numbers stand alone: the cards line stops setting the level and the goalscorer price stops lifting shots. Touches: cards, shots and shots on target.
This re-prices the rows we already evaluated. It does not re-decide which rows to evaluate or re-run the match itself.
average, 120 matches
League average is 3.97 yellows a match.
Home 1.86/match · Away 1.96/match
3.82/match in tight games · 3.95/match in open ones
Price = the latest market price we hold, labelled by the venue quoting it, never a price of ours. Where we hold more than one book on a row, all of them are behind the row's tap with the best marked. A row's colour is the trade in the numbers on show: green positive, red negative, white neutral. Those numbers are the model replayed with your dials, in your browser, until the chip above swaps in DataPitch's own; either way the percentages, the market's own number and the gap between them live behind the row's tap. A row's last-5 history counts starts of 60+ minutes in the last 365 days, most recent first.
