v
The rows below run on your numbers, and colour is the verdict: green a positive trade, red a negative one, white neutral. The chip recolours them from our model instead and opens our read on the match.
Edina Alves Batista runs average on cards, and 1 of the 1 rows we would back are Vitoria's.
189 lines on 8 markets, best first: tap a market to open it, tap a player for his other lines, his numbers and the arithmetic behind the colour.
GarcezLM · #31Fouls committed
DataPitch 59% · Market 56%
Against this price: Gap +3pp
at our corrected probability the price is fair
JamersonLB · #83Fouls committed
DataPitch 51% · Market 58%
Against this price: Gap -7pp
the price is fair, so there is nothing to back
Diego TarziaLM · #12Fouls committed
DataPitch 74% · Market 82%
Against this price: Gap -8pp
price too short
Giovanni AugustoRM · #10Fouls committed
DataPitch 60% · Market 73%
Against this price: Gap -13pp
price too short
Yago FelipeCAM · #88Fouls committed
DataPitch 74% · Market 88%
Against this price: Gap -14pp
price too short
DomaRCB · #3Fouls committed
DataPitch 55% · Market 69%
Against this price: Gap -14pp
price too short
Luan CândidoLCB · #36Fouls committed
DataPitch 53% · Market 67%
Against this price: Gap -14pp
price too short
CamiloLDM · #27Fouls committed
DataPitch 73% · Market 88%
Against this price: Gap -15pp
price too short
MatheuzinhoCAM · #10Fouls committed
DataPitch 52% · Market 67%
Against this price: Gap -15pp
price too short
FernandoLCB · #12Fouls committed
DataPitch 64% · Market 80%
Against this price: Gap -16pp
price too short
Bruno PachecoLB · #91Fouls committed
DataPitch 55% · Market 71%
Against this price: Gap -16pp
price too short
RamonLDM · #13Fouls committed
DataPitch 65% · Market 82%
Against this price: Gap -17pp
price too short
Emmanuel MartínezRDM · #6Fouls committed
DataPitch 65% · Market 83%
Against this price: Gap -18pp
price too short
CacáRCB · #25Fouls committed
DataPitch 49% · Market 69%
Against this price: Gap -20pp
price too short
ReneST · #91Fouls committed
DataPitch 56% · Market 77%
Against this price: Gap -21pp
price too short
ErickRM · #33Fouls committed
DataPitch 52% · Market 78%
Against this price: Gap -26pp
price too short
JamersonLB · #83Fouls drawn
DataPitch 52% · Market 64%
Against this price: Gap -12pp
price too short
Diego TarziaLM · #12Fouls drawn
DataPitch 71% · Market 93%
Against this price: Gap -22pp
price too short
Yago FelipeCAM · #88Fouls drawn
DataPitch 61% · Market 86%
Against this price: Gap -25pp
price too short
DomaRCB · #3Fouls drawn
DataPitch 19% · Market 44%
Against this price: Gap -25pp
the price is fair, so there is nothing to back
GarcezLM · #31Fouls drawn
DataPitch 65% · Market 91%
Against this price: Gap -26pp
price too short
ReneST · #91Fouls drawn
DataPitch 62% · Market 88%
Against this price: Gap -26pp
price too short
Emmanuel MartínezRDM · #6Fouls drawn
DataPitch 63% · Market 90%
Against this price: Gap -27pp
price too short
Bruno PachecoLB · #91Fouls drawn
DataPitch 61% · Market 90%
Against this price: Gap -29pp
price too short
CacáRCB · #25Fouls drawn
DataPitch 35% · Market 64%
Against this price: Gap -29pp
price too short
Giovanni AugustoRM · #10Fouls drawn
DataPitch 64% · Market 94%
Against this price: Gap -30pp
price too short
Luan CândidoLCB · #36Fouls drawn
DataPitch 37% · Market 67%
Against this price: Gap -30pp
price too short
CamiloLDM · #27Fouls drawn
DataPitch 39% · Market 88%
Against this price: Gap -49pp
price too short
Yago FelipeCAM · #88Tackles
DataPitch 35% · Market 44%
Against this price: Gap -9pp
the price is fair, so there is nothing to back
Giovanni AugustoRM · #10Tackles
DataPitch 33% · Market 44%
Against this price: Gap -11pp
the price is fair, so there is nothing to back
DomaRCB · #3Tackles
DataPitch 20% · Market 42%
Against this price: Gap -22pp
the price is fair, so there is nothing to back
Bruno PachecoLB · #91Tackles
DataPitch 39% · Market 62%
Against this price: Gap -23pp
the price is fair, so there is nothing to back
Luan CândidoLCB · #36Tackles
DataPitch 35% · Market 60%
Against this price: Gap -25pp
the price is fair, so there is nothing to back
GarcezLM · #31Tackles
DataPitch 15% · Market 42%
Against this price: Gap -27pp
the price is fair, so there is nothing to back
JamersonLB · #83Tackles
DataPitch 50% · Market 78%
Against this price: Gap -28pp
price too short
Emmanuel MartínezRDM · #6Tackles
DataPitch 39% · Market 69%
Against this price: Gap -30pp
price too short
ReneST · #91Tackles
DataPitch 24% · Market 56%
Against this price: Gap -32pp
the price is fair, so there is nothing to back
CamiloLDM · #27Tackles
DataPitch 42% · Market 78%
Against this price: Gap -36pp
price too short
CacáRCB · #25Tackles
DataPitch 32% · Market 73%
Against this price: Gap -41pp
price too short
Diego TarziaLM · #12Tackles
DataPitch 22% · Market 86%
Against this price: Gap -64pp
price too short
ReneST · #91Shots
DataPitch 100% · Market 99%
Against this price: Gap +1pp
we evaluate this market and never bet it
Bruno PachecoLB · #91Shots
DataPitch 32% · Market 32%
Against this price: Gap +0pp
we evaluate this market and never bet it
FernandoLCB · #12Shots
DataPitch 41% · Market 48%
Against this price: Gap -7pp
we evaluate this market and never bet it
GarcezLM · #31Shots
DataPitch 81% · Market 89%
Against this price: Gap -8pp
we evaluate this market and never bet it
MatheuzinhoCAM · #10Shots
DataPitch 79% · Market 95%
Against this price: Gap -16pp
we evaluate this market and never bet it
DomaRCB · #3Shots
DataPitch 27% · Market 44%
Against this price: Gap -17pp
we evaluate this market and never bet it
Yago FelipeCAM · #88Shots
DataPitch 49% · Market 67%
Against this price: Gap -18pp
we evaluate this market and never bet it
ErickRM · #33Shots
DataPitch 73% · Market 94%
Against this price: Gap -21pp
we evaluate this market and never bet it
Emmanuel MartínezRDM · #6Shots
DataPitch 41% · Market 62%
Against this price: Gap -21pp
we evaluate this market and never bet it
RamonLDM · #13Shots
DataPitch 54% · Market 77%
Against this price: Gap -23pp
we evaluate this market and never bet it
Giovanni AugustoRM · #10Shots
DataPitch 46% · Market 69%
Against this price: Gap -23pp
we evaluate this market and never bet it
JamersonLB · #83Shots
DataPitch 56% · Market 80%
Against this price: Gap -24pp
we evaluate this market and never bet it
CamiloLDM · #27Shots
DataPitch 26% · Market 50%
Against this price: Gap -24pp
we evaluate this market and never bet it
CacáRCB · #25Shots
DataPitch 33% · Market 58%
Against this price: Gap -25pp
we evaluate this market and never bet it
Luan CândidoLCB · #36Shots
DataPitch 28% · Market 56%
Against this price: Gap -28pp
we evaluate this market and never bet it
Diego TarziaLM · #12Shots
DataPitch 44% · Market 94%
Against this price: Gap -50pp
we evaluate this market and never bet it
FernandoLCB · #12Shots on target
DataPitch 22% · Market 13%
Against this price: Gap +9pp
we evaluate this market and never bet it
Bruno PachecoLB · #91Shots on target
DataPitch 19% · Market 11%
Against this price: Gap +8pp
we evaluate this market and never bet it
DomaRCB · #3Shots on target
DataPitch 21% · Market 14%
Against this price: Gap +7pp
we evaluate this market and never bet it
Emmanuel MartínezRDM · #6Shots on target
DataPitch 27% · Market 23%
Against this price: Gap +4pp
we evaluate this market and never bet it
Giovanni AugustoRM · #10Shots on target
DataPitch 27% · Market 27%
Against this price: Gap +0pp
we evaluate this market and never bet it
Luan CândidoLCB · #36Shots on target
DataPitch 24% · Market 25%
Against this price: Gap -1pp
we evaluate this market and never bet it
CamiloLDM · #27Shots on target
DataPitch 13% · Market 15%
Against this price: Gap -2pp
we evaluate this market and never bet it
Yago FelipeCAM · #88Shots on target
DataPitch 28% · Market 31%
Against this price: Gap -3pp
we evaluate this market and never bet it
CacáRCB · #25Shots on target
DataPitch 18% · Market 22%
Against this price: Gap -4pp
we evaluate this market and never bet it
JamersonLB · #83Shots on target
DataPitch 26% · Market 36%
Against this price: Gap -10pp
we evaluate this market and never bet it
ReneST · #91Shots on target
DataPitch 62% · Market 73%
Against this price: Gap -11pp
we evaluate this market and never bet it
GarcezLM · #31Shots on target
DataPitch 36% · Market 48%
Against this price: Gap -12pp
we evaluate this market and never bet it
RamonLDM · #13Shots on target
DataPitch 25% · Market 40%
Against this price: Gap -15pp
we evaluate this market and never bet it
ErickRM · #33Shots on target
DataPitch 32% · Market 56%
Against this price: Gap -24pp
we evaluate this market and never bet it
Diego TarziaLM · #12Shots on target
DataPitch 29% · Market 58%
Against this price: Gap -29pp
we evaluate this market and never bet it
MatheuzinhoCAM · #10Shots on target
DataPitch 45% · Market 77%
Against this price: Gap -32pp
we evaluate this market and never bet it
The books expect about 4.5 cards.
Diego TarziaLM · #12To be booked
DataPitch 30% · Market 20%
Against this price: Gap +10pp
a calibrated probability, graded against what happened
Emmanuel MartínezRDM · #6To be booked
DataPitch 29% · Market 27%
Against this price: Gap +2pp
the price is fair, so there is nothing to back
Bruno PachecoLB · #91To be booked
DataPitch 22% · Market 22%
Against this price: Gap +0pp
the price is fair, so there is nothing to back
Yago FelipeCAM · #88To be booked
DataPitch 34% · Market 38%
Against this price: Gap -4pp
the price is fair, so there is nothing to back
Giovanni AugustoRM · #10To be booked
DataPitch 18% · Market 22%
Against this price: Gap -4pp
the price is fair, so there is nothing to back
Luan CândidoLCB · #36To be booked
DataPitch 20% · Market 31%
Against this price: Gap -11pp
the price is fair, so there is nothing to back
JamersonLB · #83To be booked
DataPitch 14% · Market 27%
Against this price: Gap -13pp
the price is fair, so there is nothing to back
Lucas ArcanjoGK · #1To be booked
DataPitch 0% · Market 13%
Against this price: Gap -13pp
the price is fair, so there is nothing to back
CacáRCB · #25To be booked
DataPitch 22% · Market 38%
Against this price: Gap -16pp
the price is fair, so there is nothing to back
CamiloLDM · #27To be booked
DataPitch 28%
no price
MateusinhoRB · #98MateusinhoRB · #98To be booked
DataPitch 26%
no price
RamonLDM · #13To be booked
DataPitch 26%
no price
Márcio Antônio de Sousa JúniorST · #7Márcio Antônio de Sousa JúniorST · #7To be booked
DataPitch 22%
no price
DomaRCB · #3To be booked
DataPitch 20%
no price
FernandoLCB · #12To be booked
DataPitch 18%
no price
ReneST · #91To be booked
DataPitch 18%
no price
ErickRM · #33To be booked
DataPitch 16%
no price
MatheuzinhoCAM · #10To be booked
DataPitch 14%
no price
GarcezLM · #31To be booked
DataPitch 4%
no price
CacáRCB · #25Headed shot on target
DataPitch 18%
wins headers against a smaller marker (187cm over a 180cm back line); no corner line priced for his side yet
DomaRCB · #3Headed shot on target
DataPitch 15%
level in the air (187cm against a 186cm back line); no corner line priced for his side yet
Luan CândidoLCB · #36Headed shot on target
DataPitch 13%
wins headers against a smaller marker (184cm over a 180cm back line); no corner line priced for his side yet
AndersonGK · #98AndersonGK · #98Headed shot on target
DataPitch 12%
wins headers against a smaller marker (192cm over a 186cm back line); no corner line priced for his side yet
FernandoLCB · #12Headed shot on target
DataPitch 6%
gives up height in the air (180cm against a 186cm back line); no corner line priced for his side yet
Márcio Antônio de Sousa JúniorST · #7Márcio Antônio de Sousa JúniorST · #7Headed shot on target
DataPitch 5%
gives up height in the air (176cm against a 186cm back line); no corner line priced for his side yet
Bruno PachecoLB · #91Headed shot on target
DataPitch 4%
gives up height in the air (174cm against a 186cm back line); no corner line priced for his side yet
GarcezLM · #31Headed shot on target
DataPitch 4%
gives up height in the air (181cm against a 186cm back line); no corner line priced for his side yet
Diego TarziaLM · #12Headed shot on target
DataPitch 3%
gives up height in the air (174cm against a 180cm back line); no corner line priced for his side yet
ErickRM · #33Headed shot on target
DataPitch 2%
gives up height in the air (173cm against a 180cm back line); no corner line priced for his side yet
Emmanuel MartínezRDM · #6Headed shot on target
DataPitch 2%
gives up height in the air (169cm against a 180cm back line); no corner line priced for his side yet
RamonLDM · #13Headed shot on target
DataPitch 2%
gives up height in the air (172cm against a 180cm back line); no corner line priced for his side yet
MatheuzinhoCAM · #10Headed shot on target
DataPitch 2%
gives up height in the air (165cm against a 180cm back line); no corner line priced for his side yet
Yago FelipeCAM · #88Headed shot on target
DataPitch 2%
gives up height in the air (174cm against a 186cm back line); no corner line priced for his side yet
Giovanni AugustoRM · #10Headed shot on target
DataPitch 2%
gives up height in the air (175cm against a 186cm back line); no corner line priced for his side yet
DuduRDM · #23DuduRDM · #23Headed shot on target
DataPitch 2%
gives up height in the air (173cm against a 186cm back line); no corner line priced for his side yet
CamiloLDM · #27Headed shot on target
DataPitch 2%
gives up height in the air (178cm against a 186cm back line); no corner line priced for his side yet
ErickRM · #33Shot on target from outside the box
DataPitch 32%
shoots from range 0.8 times a game across 10 logged matches
JamersonLB · #83Shot on target from outside the box
DataPitch 30%
shoots from range 0.7 times a game across 10 logged matches
ReneST · #91Shot on target from outside the box
DataPitch 28%
shoots from range 0.7 times a game across 9 logged matches
MatheuzinhoCAM · #10Shot on target from outside the box
DataPitch 18%
shoots from range 0.4 times a game across 10 logged matches
Emmanuel MartínezRDM · #6Shot on target from outside the box
DataPitch 15%
shoots from range 0.3 times a game across 7 logged matches
Diego TarziaLM · #12Shot on target from outside the box
DataPitch 12%
shoots from range 0.3 times a game across 10 logged matches
Yago FelipeCAM · #88Shot on target from outside the box
DataPitch 11%
shoots from range 0.5 times a game across 6 logged matches
CacáRCB · #25Shot on target from outside the box
DataPitch 10%
shoots from range 0.2 times a game across 8 logged matches
Giovanni AugustoRM · #10Shot on target from outside the box
DataPitch 8%
shoots from range 0.4 times a game across 9 logged matches
MateusinhoRB · #98MateusinhoRB · #98Shot on target from outside the box
DataPitch 6%
shoots from range 0.1 times a game across 9 logged matches
RamonLDM · #13Shot on target from outside the box
DataPitch 6%
shoots from range 0.1 times a game across 7 logged matches
GarcezLM · #31Shot on target from outside the box
DataPitch 5%
shoots from range 0.2 times a game across 5 logged matches
DuduRDM · #23DuduRDM · #23Shot on target from outside the box
DataPitch 5%
no shots from outside the box in the 1 match we have logged
DomaRCB · #3Shot on target from outside the box
DataPitch 4%
shoots from range 0.2 times a game across 10 logged matches
Luan CândidoLCB · #36Shot on target from outside the box
DataPitch 3%
shoots from range 0.1 times a game across 9 logged matches
Lucas ArcanjoGK · #1Shot on target from outside the box
DataPitch 3%
no shots from outside the box in the 10 matches we have logged
CamiloLDM · #27Shot on target from outside the box
DataPitch 2%
shoots from range 0.1 times a game across 9 logged matches
Márcio Antônio de Sousa JúniorST · #7Márcio Antônio de Sousa JúniorST · #7Shot on target from outside the box
DataPitch 2%
shoots from range 0.1 times a game across 10 logged matches
Bruno PachecoLB · #91Shot on target from outside the box
DataPitch 1%
shoots from range 0.1 times a game across 9 logged matches
AndersonGK · #98AndersonGK · #98Shot on target from outside the box
DataPitch 1%
no shots from outside the box in the 7 matches we have logged
FernandoLCB · #12Shot on target from outside the box
DataPitch 1%
no shots from outside the box in the 8 matches we have logged
Kauan Faria GomesRB · #21Kauan Faria GomesRB · #21Shot on target from outside the box
DataPitch 1%
no shots from outside the box in the 10 matches we have logged
Tap any player for his numbers
Expected XI. Attack at the top, keeper at the bottom.
Match level, never per player. Work down the steps, set the match up the way you see it, then Simulate re-prices every row above in your browser.
How strict you think Edina Alves Batista will be tonight
Our card model already has his record in it. This is your view on top of ours. Touches: cards, fouls and fouls drawn.
Who has the ball and who is chasing it
The side chasing shoots more and gets fouled more; the side in front tackles more. Touches: every market.
Pick the battles you are watching: an attacker and the defender on him
A battle is one attacker against the defender marking him. Add the duels you expect to shape the game and Simulate works them into both men's numbers. None picked yet, and none is fine.
We apply our matchup pivot to each pair and show you every row it moves. Two battles never stack on one player: the pivot has a ceiling and one battle already takes him there. Touches: fouls, fouls drawn and cards for those players.
We lean on the market where it is sharp
Off means our own numbers stand alone: the cards line stops setting the level and the goalscorer price stops lifting shots. Touches: cards, shots and shots on target.
This re-prices the rows we already evaluated. It does not re-decide which rows to evaluate or re-run the match itself.
average, 96 matches
League average is 3.98 yellows a match.
Home 2.00/match · Away 2.76/match
4.83/match in tight games · 4.62/match in open ones
Price = the latest market price we hold, labelled by the venue quoting it, never a price of ours. Where we hold more than one book on a row, all of them are behind the row's tap with the best marked. A row's colour is the trade in the numbers on show: green positive, red negative, white neutral. Those numbers are the model replayed with your dials, in your browser, until the chip above swaps in DataPitch's own; either way the percentages, the market's own number and the gap between them live behind the row's tap. A row's last-5 history counts starts of 60+ minutes in the last 365 days, most recent first.