v
The rows below run on your numbers, and colour is the verdict: green a positive trade, red a negative one, white neutral. The chip recolours them from our model instead and opens our read on the match.
Felipe Fernandes de Lima runs average on cards, and 1 of the 1 rows we would back are Internacional's.
205 lines on 7 markets, best first: tap a market to open it, tap a player for his other lines, his numbers and the arithmetic behind the colour.
JuninhoLB · #18Fouls committed
DataPitch 51% · Market 58%
Against this price: Gap -7pp
the price is fair, so there is nothing to back
Yuri AlbertoRM · #9Fouls committed
DataPitch 70% · Market 78%
Against this price: Gap -8pp
price too short
MatheuzinhoRB · #2Fouls committed
DataPitch 69% · Market 77%
Against this price: Gap -8pp
price too short
Matheus BiduLB · #21Fouls committed
DataPitch 63% · Market 75%
Against this price: Gap -12pp
price too short
Gabriel PaulistaRCB · #3Fouls committed
DataPitch 49% · Market 64%
Against this price: Gap -15pp
price too short
Braian AguirreRB · #35Fouls committed
DataPitch 70% · Market 88%
Against this price: Gap -18pp
price too short
Gustavo HenriqueLCB · #13Fouls committed
DataPitch 56% · Market 74%
Against this price: Gap -18pp
price too short
Memphis DepayST · #10Fouls committed
DataPitch 55% · Market 73%
Against this price: Gap -18pp
price too short
Rodrigo VillagraRCM · #5Fouls committed
DataPitch 66% · Market 85%
Against this price: Gap -19pp
price too short
Bruno GomesRCB · #15Fouls committed
DataPitch 68% · Market 88%
Against this price: Gap -20pp
price too short
Rodrigo GarroCAM · #8Fouls committed
DataPitch 56% · Market 77%
Against this price: Gap -21pp
price too short
Gabriel MercadoLCB · #25Fouls committed
DataPitch 58% · Market 82%
Against this price: Gap -24pp
price too short
Alan PatrickLS · #10Fouls committed
DataPitch 51% · Market 75%
Against this price: Gap -24pp
price too short
AndreRDM · #49Fouls committed
DataPitch 60% · Market 85%
Against this price: Gap -25pp
price too short
RanieleLDM · #14Fouls committed
DataPitch 62% · Market 88%
Against this price: Gap -26pp
price too short
Alexandro BernabeiLM · #26Fouls committed
DataPitch 67% · Market 94%
Against this price: Gap -27pp
price too short
Thiago MaiaLCM · #29Fouls committed
DataPitch 50% · Market 80%
Against this price: Gap -30pp
price too short
AlerrandroRS · #9Fouls committed
DataPitch 56% · Market 88%
Against this price: Gap -32pp
price too short
Gabriel MercadoLCB · #25Fouls drawn
DataPitch 58% · Market 45%
Against this price: Gap +13pp
a calibrated probability, graded against what happened
Bruno GomesRCB · #15Fouls drawn
DataPitch 78% · Market 82%
Against this price: Gap -4pp
price too short
Rodrigo VillagraRCM · #5Fouls drawn
DataPitch 64% · Market 69%
Against this price: Gap -5pp
price too short
Rodrigo GarroCAM · #8Fouls drawn
DataPitch 86% · Market 94%
Against this price: Gap -8pp
price too short
Braian AguirreRB · #35Fouls drawn
DataPitch 34% · Market 45%
Against this price: Gap -11pp
the price is fair, so there is nothing to back
Gustavo HenriqueLCB · #13Fouls drawn
DataPitch 37% · Market 50%
Against this price: Gap -13pp
the price is fair, so there is nothing to back
RanieleLDM · #14Fouls drawn
DataPitch 68% · Market 82%
Against this price: Gap -14pp
price too short
JuninhoLB · #18Fouls drawn
DataPitch 33% · Market 50%
Against this price: Gap -17pp
the price is fair, so there is nothing to back
Alexandro BernabeiLM · #26Fouls drawn
DataPitch 59% · Market 77%
Against this price: Gap -18pp
price too short
Gabriel PaulistaRCB · #3Fouls drawn
DataPitch 38% · Market 56%
Against this price: Gap -18pp
the price is fair, so there is nothing to back
Matheus BiduLB · #21Fouls drawn
DataPitch 69% · Market 90%
Against this price: Gap -21pp
price too short
Memphis DepayST · #10Fouls drawn
DataPitch 64% · Market 88%
Against this price: Gap -24pp
price too short
AlerrandroRS · #9Fouls drawn
DataPitch 55% · Market 80%
Against this price: Gap -25pp
price too short
MatheuzinhoRB · #2Fouls drawn
DataPitch 36% · Market 62%
Against this price: Gap -26pp
the price is fair, so there is nothing to back
Yuri AlbertoRM · #9Fouls drawn
DataPitch 53% · Market 82%
Against this price: Gap -29pp
price too short
Thiago MaiaLCM · #29Fouls drawn
DataPitch 25% · Market 58%
Against this price: Gap -33pp
the price is fair, so there is nothing to back
Alan PatrickLS · #10Fouls drawn
DataPitch 36% · Market 88%
Against this price: Gap -52pp
price too short
AndreRDM · #49Fouls drawn
DataPitch 36% · Market 88%
Against this price: Gap -52pp
price too short
Matheus BiduLB · #21Shots
DataPitch 69% · Market 60%
Against this price: Gap +9pp
we evaluate this market and never bet it
Alan PatrickLS · #10Shots
DataPitch 88% · Market 82%
Against this price: Gap +6pp
we evaluate this market and never bet it
Rodrigo GarroCAM · #8Shots
DataPitch 80% · Market 80%
Against this price: Gap +0pp
we evaluate this market and never bet it
Gabriel PaulistaRCB · #3Shots
DataPitch 50% · Market 50%
Against this price: Gap +0pp
we evaluate this market and never bet it
Yuri AlbertoRM · #9Shots
DataPitch 91% · Market 94%
Against this price: Gap -3pp
we evaluate this market and never bet it
Gustavo HenriqueLCB · #13Shots
DataPitch 55% · Market 58%
Against this price: Gap -3pp
we evaluate this market and never bet it
Memphis DepayST · #10Shots
DataPitch 83% · Market 89%
Against this price: Gap -6pp
we evaluate this market and never bet it
AlerrandroRS · #9Shots
DataPitch 87% · Market 94%
Against this price: Gap -7pp
we evaluate this market and never bet it
RanieleLDM · #14Shots
DataPitch 46% · Market 55%
Against this price: Gap -9pp
we evaluate this market and never bet it
MatheuzinhoRB · #2Shots
DataPitch 40% · Market 50%
Against this price: Gap -10pp
we evaluate this market and never bet it
Alexandro BernabeiLM · #26Shots
DataPitch 78% · Market 90%
Against this price: Gap -12pp
we evaluate this market and never bet it
Braian AguirreRB · #35Shots
DataPitch 60% · Market 75%
Against this price: Gap -15pp
we evaluate this market and never bet it
Bruno GomesRCB · #15Shots
DataPitch 39% · Market 58%
Against this price: Gap -19pp
we evaluate this market and never bet it
Rodrigo VillagraRCM · #5Shots
DataPitch 21% · Market 40%
Against this price: Gap -19pp
we evaluate this market and never bet it
Gabriel MercadoLCB · #25Shots
DataPitch 9% · Market 40%
Against this price: Gap -31pp
we evaluate this market and never bet it
JuninhoLB · #18Shots
DataPitch 22% · Market 55%
Against this price: Gap -33pp
we evaluate this market and never bet it
Thiago MaiaLCM · #29Shots
DataPitch 23% · Market 58%
Against this price: Gap -35pp
we evaluate this market and never bet it
AndreRDM · #49Shots
DataPitch 26% · Market 75%
Against this price: Gap -49pp
we evaluate this market and never bet it
JuninhoLB · #18Shots on target
DataPitch 22% · Market 13%
Against this price: Gap +9pp
we evaluate this market and never bet it
Matheus BiduLB · #21Shots on target
DataPitch 25% · Market 22%
Against this price: Gap +3pp
we evaluate this market and never bet it
Gabriel MercadoLCB · #25Shots on target
DataPitch 23% · Market 22%
Against this price: Gap +1pp
we evaluate this market and never bet it
Gustavo HenriqueLCB · #13Shots on target
DataPitch 27% · Market 28%
Against this price: Gap -1pp
we evaluate this market and never bet it
MatheuzinhoRB · #2Shots on target
DataPitch 20% · Market 22%
Against this price: Gap -2pp
we evaluate this market and never bet it
Braian AguirreRB · #35Shots on target
DataPitch 25% · Market 28%
Against this price: Gap -3pp
we evaluate this market and never bet it
Gabriel PaulistaRCB · #3Shots on target
DataPitch 10% · Market 15%
Against this price: Gap -5pp
we evaluate this market and never bet it
Thiago MaiaLCM · #29Shots on target
DataPitch 23% · Market 29%
Against this price: Gap -6pp
we evaluate this market and never bet it
RanieleLDM · #14Shots on target
DataPitch 19% · Market 25%
Against this price: Gap -6pp
we evaluate this market and never bet it
Bruno GomesRCB · #15Shots on target
DataPitch 14% · Market 22%
Against this price: Gap -8pp
we evaluate this market and never bet it
Rodrigo VillagraRCM · #5Shots on target
DataPitch 9% · Market 18%
Against this price: Gap -9pp
we evaluate this market and never bet it
Alan PatrickLS · #10Shots on target
DataPitch 26% · Market 40%
Against this price: Gap -14pp
we evaluate this market and never bet it
Memphis DepayST · #10Shots on target
DataPitch 43% · Market 60%
Against this price: Gap -17pp
we evaluate this market and never bet it
Rodrigo GarroCAM · #8Shots on target
DataPitch 31% · Market 48%
Against this price: Gap -17pp
we evaluate this market and never bet it
AndreRDM · #49Shots on target
DataPitch 20% · Market 38%
Against this price: Gap -18pp
we evaluate this market and never bet it
Alexandro BernabeiLM · #26Shots on target
DataPitch 36% · Market 55%
Against this price: Gap -19pp
we evaluate this market and never bet it
AlerrandroRS · #9Shots on target
DataPitch 48% · Market 69%
Against this price: Gap -21pp
we evaluate this market and never bet it
Yuri AlbertoRM · #9Shots on target
DataPitch 49% · Market 75%
Against this price: Gap -26pp
we evaluate this market and never bet it
The books expect about 6 cards.
Alexandro BernabeiLM · #26To be booked
DataPitch 39% · Market 36%
Against this price: Gap +3pp
at our corrected probability the price is fair
RanieleLDM · #14To be booked
DataPitch 38% · Market 35%
Against this price: Gap +3pp
at our corrected probability the price is fair
Matheus BiduLB · #21To be booked
DataPitch 26% · Market 27%
Against this price: Gap -1pp
the price is fair, so there is nothing to back
Thiago MaiaLCM · #29To be booked
DataPitch 25% · Market 27%
Against this price: Gap -2pp
the price is fair, so there is nothing to back
Rodrigo GarroCAM · #8To be booked
DataPitch 27% · Market 31%
Against this price: Gap -4pp
the price is fair, so there is nothing to back
AlerrandroRS · #9To be booked
DataPitch 20% · Market 25%
Against this price: Gap -5pp
the price is fair, so there is nothing to back
Gabriel MercadoLCB · #25To be booked
DataPitch 32% · Market 38%
Against this price: Gap -6pp
the price is fair, so there is nothing to back
Memphis DepayST · #10To be booked
DataPitch 15% · Market 21%
Against this price: Gap -6pp
the price is fair, so there is nothing to back
Bruno GomesRCB · #15To be booked
DataPitch 22% · Market 29%
Against this price: Gap -7pp
the price is fair, so there is nothing to back
MatheuzinhoRB · #2To be booked
DataPitch 27% · Market 35%
Against this price: Gap -8pp
the price is fair, so there is nothing to back
Rodrigo VillagraRCM · #5To be booked
DataPitch 25% · Market 33%
Against this price: Gap -8pp
the price is fair, so there is nothing to back
Braian AguirreRB · #35To be booked
DataPitch 32% · Market 42%
Against this price: Gap -10pp
the price is fair, so there is nothing to back
Gabriel PaulistaRCB · #3To be booked
DataPitch 23% · Market 35%
Against this price: Gap -12pp
the price is fair, so there is nothing to back
JuninhoLB · #18To be booked
DataPitch 17% · Market 33%
Against this price: Gap -16pp
the price is fair, so there is nothing to back
Gustavo HenriqueLCB · #13To be booked
DataPitch 26% · Market 43%
Against this price: Gap -17pp
the price is fair, so there is nothing to back
Hugo SouzaGK · #1To be booked
DataPitch 0% · Market 20%
Against this price: Gap -20pp
the price is fair, so there is nothing to back
AndreRDM · #49To be booked
DataPitch 27%
no price
7BrenoLM · #7BrenoLM · #7To be booked
DataPitch 27%
no price
28VitinhoRM · #28VitinhoRM · #28To be booked
DataPitch 27%
no price
Yuri AlbertoRM · #9To be booked
DataPitch 25%
no price
Alan PatrickLS · #10To be booked
DataPitch 18%
no price
Gustavo HenriqueLCB · #13Headed shot on target
DataPitch 35%
wins headers against a smaller marker (196cm over a 179cm back line); no corner line priced for his side yet
Hugo SouzaGK · #1Headed shot on target
DataPitch 20%
wins headers against a smaller marker (199cm over a 179cm back line); no corner line priced for his side yet
JuninhoLB · #18Headed shot on target
DataPitch 17%
wins headers against a smaller marker (187cm over a 182cm back line); no corner line priced for his side yet
Gabriel PaulistaRCB · #3Headed shot on target
DataPitch 15%
wins headers against a smaller marker (185cm over a 179cm back line); no corner line priced for his side yet
Gabriel MercadoLCB · #25Headed shot on target
DataPitch 8%
level in the air (181cm against a 182cm back line); no corner line priced for his side yet
AlerrandroRS · #9Headed shot on target
DataPitch 8%
gives up height in the air (180cm against a 182cm back line); no corner line priced for his side yet
RanieleLDM · #14Headed shot on target
DataPitch 7%
wins headers against a smaller marker (184cm over a 179cm back line); no corner line priced for his side yet
Yuri AlbertoRM · #9Headed shot on target
DataPitch 6%
wins headers against a smaller marker (183cm over a 179cm back line); no corner line priced for his side yet
Memphis DepayST · #10Headed shot on target
DataPitch 6%
level in the air (178cm against a 179cm back line); no corner line priced for his side yet
Alan PatrickLS · #10Headed shot on target
DataPitch 5%
gives up height in the air (177cm against a 182cm back line); no corner line priced for his side yet
MatheuzinhoRB · #2Headed shot on target
DataPitch 5%
gives up height in the air (176cm against a 179cm back line); no corner line priced for his side yet
Matheus BiduLB · #21Headed shot on target
DataPitch 4%
gives up height in the air (172cm against a 179cm back line); no corner line priced for his side yet
Bruno GomesRCB · #15Headed shot on target
DataPitch 4%
gives up height in the air (175cm against a 182cm back line); no corner line priced for his side yet
Braian AguirreRB · #35Headed shot on target
DataPitch 4%
gives up height in the air (174cm against a 182cm back line); no corner line priced for his side yet
23Matheus CunhaGK · #23Matheus CunhaGK · #23Headed shot on target
DataPitch 4%
level in the air (181cm against a 182cm back line); no corner line priced for his side yet
Thiago MaiaLCM · #29Headed shot on target
DataPitch 3%
gives up height in the air (179cm against a 182cm back line); no corner line priced for his side yet
Rodrigo VillagraRCM · #5Headed shot on target
DataPitch 3%
gives up height in the air (178cm against a 182cm back line); no corner line priced for his side yet
28VitinhoRM · #28VitinhoRM · #28Headed shot on target
DataPitch 3%
gives up height in the air (177cm against a 182cm back line); no corner line priced for his side yet
Alexandro BernabeiLM · #26Headed shot on target
DataPitch 2%
gives up height in the air (169cm against a 182cm back line); no corner line priced for his side yet
Alexandro BernabeiLM · #26Shot on target from outside the box
DataPitch 17%
shoots from range 0.7 times a game across 8 logged matches
Rodrigo GarroCAM · #8Shot on target from outside the box
DataPitch 14%
shoots from range 0.8 times a game across 8 logged matches
Bruno GomesRCB · #15Shot on target from outside the box
DataPitch 13%
shoots from range 0.6 times a game across 8 logged matches
Alan PatrickLS · #10Shot on target from outside the box
DataPitch 12%
shoots from range 0.5 times a game across 9 logged matches
Braian AguirreRB · #35Shot on target from outside the box
DataPitch 12%
shoots from range 0.5 times a game across 7 logged matches
Matheus BiduLB · #21Shot on target from outside the box
DataPitch 11%
shoots from range 0.7 times a game across 7 logged matches
Memphis DepayST · #10Shot on target from outside the box
DataPitch 8%
shoots from range 0.5 times a game across 7 logged matches
28VitinhoRM · #28VitinhoRM · #28Shot on target from outside the box
DataPitch 7%
shoots from range 0.3 times a game across 9 logged matches
Thiago MaiaLCM · #29Shot on target from outside the box
DataPitch 7%
shoots from range 0.3 times a game across 5 logged matches
Gustavo HenriqueLCB · #13Shot on target from outside the box
DataPitch 6%
shoots from range 0.3 times a game across 9 logged matches
Yuri AlbertoRM · #9Shot on target from outside the box
DataPitch 6%
shoots from range 0.3 times a game across 3 logged matches
MatheuzinhoRB · #2Shot on target from outside the box
DataPitch 5%
shoots from range 0.3 times a game across 9 logged matches
RanieleLDM · #14Shot on target from outside the box
DataPitch 4%
shoots from range 0.2 times a game across 8 logged matches
AndreRDM · #49Shot on target from outside the box
DataPitch 4%
shoots from range 0.2 times a game across 4 logged matches
AlerrandroRS · #9Shot on target from outside the box
DataPitch 4%
shoots from range 0.2 times a game across 9 logged matches
7BrenoLM · #7BrenoLM · #7Shot on target from outside the box
DataPitch 4%
shoots from range 0.2 times a game across 9 logged matches
Rodrigo VillagraRCM · #5Shot on target from outside the box
DataPitch 2%
shoots from range 0.1 times a game across 7 logged matches
Gabriel MercadoLCB · #25Shot on target from outside the box
DataPitch 1%
no shots from outside the box in the 8 matches we have logged
JuninhoLB · #18Shot on target from outside the box
DataPitch 1%
no shots from outside the box in the 9 matches we have logged
23Matheus CunhaGK · #23Matheus CunhaGK · #23Shot on target from outside the box
DataPitch 1%
no shots from outside the box in the 8 matches we have logged
Gabriel PaulistaRCB · #3Shot on target from outside the box
DataPitch 1%
no shots from outside the box in the 8 matches we have logged
Hugo SouzaGK · #1Shot on target from outside the box
DataPitch 1%
no shots from outside the box in the 8 matches we have logged
Tap any player for his numbers
Expected XI. Attack at the top, keeper at the bottom.
Match level, never per player. Work down the steps, set the match up the way you see it, then Simulate re-prices every row above in your browser.
How strict you think Felipe Fernandes de Lima will be tonight
Our card model already has his record in it. This is your view on top of ours. Touches: cards, fouls and fouls drawn.
Who has the ball and who is chasing it
The side chasing shoots more and gets fouled more; the side in front tackles more. Touches: every market.
Pick the battles you are watching: an attacker and the defender on him
A battle is one attacker against the defender marking him. Add the duels you expect to shape the game and Simulate works them into both men's numbers. None picked yet, and none is fine.
We apply our matchup pivot to each pair and show you every row it moves. Two battles never stack on one player: the pivot has a ceiling and one battle already takes him there. Touches: fouls, fouls drawn and cards for those players.
We lean on the market where it is sharp
Off means our own numbers stand alone: the cards line stops setting the level and the goalscorer price stops lifting shots. Touches: cards, shots and shots on target.
This re-prices the rows we already evaluated. It does not re-decide which rows to evaluate or re-run the match itself.
average, 113 matches
League average is 3.98 yellows a match.
Home 2.42/match · Away 2.81/match
5.13/match in tight games · 4.55/match in open ones
Price = the latest market price we hold, labelled by the venue quoting it, never a price of ours. Where we hold more than one book on a row, all of them are behind the row's tap with the best marked. A row's colour is the trade in the numbers on show: green positive, red negative, white neutral. Those numbers are the model replayed with your dials, in your browser, until the chip above swaps in DataPitch's own; either way the percentages, the market's own number and the gap between them live behind the row's tap. A row's last-5 history counts starts of 60+ minutes in the last 365 days, most recent first.
