v
The rows below run on your numbers, and colour is the verdict: green a positive trade, red a negative one, white neutral. The chip recolours them from our model instead and opens our read on the match.
Davi de Oliveira Lacerda runs strict on cards, and 1 of the 1 rows we would back are Remo's.
220 lines on 8 markets, best first: tap a market to open it, tap a player for his other lines, his numbers and the arithmetic behind the colour.
MarllonRCB · #13Fouls committed
DataPitch 54% · Market 56%
Against this price: Gap -2pp
the price is fair, so there is nothing to back
Pedro GabrielLDM · #54Fouls committed
DataPitch 74% · Market 77%
Against this price: Gap -3pp
price too short
Antonio GaleanoRM · #21Fouls committed
DataPitch 50% · Market 58%
Against this price: Gap -8pp
the price is fair, so there is nothing to back
JádersonRDM · #10Fouls committed
DataPitch 55% · Market 64%
Against this price: Gap -9pp
price too short
Fabián BalbuenaLCB · #2Fouls committed
DataPitch 46% · Market 56%
Against this price: Gap -10pp
the price is fair, so there is nothing to back
WallaceLB · #82Fouls committed
DataPitch 67% · Market 78%
Against this price: Gap -11pp
price too short
Cristian PavónRM · #7Fouls committed
DataPitch 53% · Market 69%
Against this price: Gap -16pp
price too short
Marcos RochaRCB · #14Fouls committed
DataPitch 58% · Market 75%
Against this price: Gap -17pp
price too short
Vitor BuenoLM · #15Fouls committed
DataPitch 50% · Market 69%
Against this price: Gap -19pp
price too short
Mathías VillasantiCAM · #20Fouls committed
DataPitch 68% · Market 88%
Against this price: Gap -20pp
price too short
João PedroRB · #18Fouls committed
DataPitch 57% · Market 78%
Against this price: Gap -21pp
price too short
Gabriel TaliariST · #19Fouls committed
DataPitch 66% · Market 88%
Against this price: Gap -22pp
price too short
Carlos ViníciusST · #95Fouls committed
DataPitch 66% · Market 88%
Against this price: Gap -22pp
price too short
MaykLB · #77Fouls committed
DataPitch 47% · Market 69%
Against this price: Gap -22pp
price too short
MarcelinhoRB · #79Fouls committed
DataPitch 43% · Market 69%
Against this price: Gap -26pp
price too short
Leonel PiccoLDM · #14Fouls committed
DataPitch 63% · Market 91%
Against this price: Gap -28pp
price too short
Francis AmuzuLM · #9Fouls committed
DataPitch 50% · Market 83%
Against this price: Gap -33pp
price too short
Zé RicardoCAM · #55Fouls committed
DataPitch 58% · Market 93%
Against this price: Gap -35pp
price too short
Duplexe TchambaLCB · #18Fouls committed
DataPitch 42% · Market 78%
Against this price: Gap -36pp
price too short
Francis AmuzuLM · #9Fouls drawn
DataPitch 67% · Market 75%
Against this price: Gap -8pp
price too short
Vitor BuenoLM · #15Fouls drawn
DataPitch 61% · Market 71%
Against this price: Gap -10pp
price too short
Leonel PiccoLDM · #14Fouls drawn
DataPitch 35% · Market 50%
Against this price: Gap -15pp
the price is fair, so there is nothing to back
Fabián BalbuenaLCB · #2Fouls drawn
DataPitch 28% · Market 43%
Against this price: Gap -15pp
the price is fair, so there is nothing to back
MarllonRCB · #13Fouls drawn
DataPitch 34% · Market 50%
Against this price: Gap -16pp
the price is fair, so there is nothing to back
MarcelinhoRB · #79Fouls drawn
DataPitch 68% · Market 85%
Against this price: Gap -17pp
price too short
Zé RicardoCAM · #55Fouls drawn
DataPitch 65% · Market 83%
Against this price: Gap -18pp
price too short
João PedroRB · #18Fouls drawn
DataPitch 33% · Market 52%
Against this price: Gap -19pp
the price is fair, so there is nothing to back
Cristian PavónRM · #7Fouls drawn
DataPitch 38% · Market 58%
Against this price: Gap -20pp
the price is fair, so there is nothing to back
Duplexe TchambaLCB · #18Fouls drawn
DataPitch 35% · Market 55%
Against this price: Gap -20pp
the price is fair, so there is nothing to back
Carlos ViníciusST · #95Fouls drawn
DataPitch 54% · Market 75%
Against this price: Gap -21pp
price too short
Gabriel TaliariST · #19Fouls drawn
DataPitch 68% · Market 91%
Against this price: Gap -23pp
price too short
JádersonRDM · #10Fouls drawn
DataPitch 65% · Market 88%
Against this price: Gap -23pp
price too short
Mathías VillasantiCAM · #20Fouls drawn
DataPitch 39% · Market 62%
Against this price: Gap -23pp
the price is fair, so there is nothing to back
WallaceLB · #82Fouls drawn
DataPitch 39% · Market 64%
Against this price: Gap -25pp
price too short
Antonio GaleanoRM · #21Fouls drawn
DataPitch 62% · Market 88%
Against this price: Gap -26pp
price too short
Marcos RochaRCB · #14Fouls drawn
DataPitch 37% · Market 67%
Against this price: Gap -30pp
price too short
MaykLB · #77Fouls drawn
DataPitch 34% · Market 67%
Against this price: Gap -33pp
price too short
Pedro GabrielLDM · #54Fouls drawn
DataPitch 30% · Market 67%
Against this price: Gap -37pp
price too short
Cristian PavónRM · #7Tackles
DataPitch 42% · Market 48%
Against this price: Gap -6pp
at our corrected probability the price is fair
Fabián BalbuenaLCB · #2Tackles
DataPitch 26% · Market 42%
Against this price: Gap -16pp
the price is fair, so there is nothing to back
Duplexe TchambaLCB · #18Tackles
DataPitch 33% · Market 50%
Against this price: Gap -17pp
the price is fair, so there is nothing to back
JádersonRDM · #10Tackles
DataPitch 33% · Market 50%
Against this price: Gap -17pp
the price is fair, so there is nothing to back
Gabriel TaliariST · #19Tackles
DataPitch 32% · Market 60%
Against this price: Gap -28pp
the price is fair, so there is nothing to back
MaykLB · #77Tackles
DataPitch 26% · Market 62%
Against this price: Gap -36pp
the price is fair, so there is nothing to back
MarllonRCB · #13Shots
DataPitch 48% · Market 40%
Against this price: Gap +8pp
we evaluate this market and never bet it
Carlos ViníciusST · #95Shots
DataPitch 93% · Market 94%
Against this price: Gap -1pp
we evaluate this market and never bet it
Gabriel TaliariST · #19Shots
DataPitch 90% · Market 94%
Against this price: Gap -4pp
we evaluate this market and never bet it
Duplexe TchambaLCB · #18Shots
DataPitch 35% · Market 40%
Against this price: Gap -5pp
we evaluate this market and never bet it
MaykLB · #77Shots
DataPitch 20% · Market 25%
Against this price: Gap -5pp
we evaluate this market and never bet it
Fabián BalbuenaLCB · #2Shots
DataPitch 26% · Market 38%
Against this price: Gap -12pp
we evaluate this market and never bet it
Leonel PiccoLDM · #14Shots
DataPitch 51% · Market 65%
Against this price: Gap -14pp
we evaluate this market and never bet it
Pedro GabrielLDM · #54Shots
DataPitch 38% · Market 52%
Against this price: Gap -14pp
we evaluate this market and never bet it
Antonio GaleanoRM · #21Shots
DataPitch 78% · Market 93%
Against this price: Gap -15pp
we evaluate this market and never bet it
MarcelinhoRB · #79Shots
DataPitch 59% · Market 82%
Against this price: Gap -23pp
we evaluate this market and never bet it
Mathías VillasantiCAM · #20Shots
DataPitch 26% · Market 52%
Against this price: Gap -26pp
we evaluate this market and never bet it
Francis AmuzuLM · #9Shots
DataPitch 65% · Market 92%
Against this price: Gap -27pp
we evaluate this market and never bet it
WallaceLB · #82Shots
DataPitch 13% · Market 42%
Against this price: Gap -29pp
we evaluate this market and never bet it
Cristian PavónRM · #7Shots
DataPitch 55% · Market 86%
Against this price: Gap -31pp
we evaluate this market and never bet it
Vitor BuenoLM · #15Shots
DataPitch 57% · Market 92%
Against this price: Gap -35pp
we evaluate this market and never bet it
Marcos RochaRCB · #14Shots
DataPitch 15% · Market 50%
Against this price: Gap -35pp
we evaluate this market and never bet it
João PedroRB · #18Shots
DataPitch 23% · Market 60%
Against this price: Gap -37pp
we evaluate this market and never bet it
Zé RicardoCAM · #55Shots
DataPitch 30% · Market 88%
Against this price: Gap -58pp
we evaluate this market and never bet it
JádersonRDM · #10Shots
DataPitch 7% · Market 85%
Against this price: Gap -78pp
we evaluate this market and never bet it
Duplexe TchambaLCB · #18Shots on target
DataPitch 24% · Market 15%
Against this price: Gap +9pp
we evaluate this market and never bet it
MarllonRCB · #13Shots on target
DataPitch 24% · Market 15%
Against this price: Gap +9pp
we evaluate this market and never bet it
Marcos RochaRCB · #14Shots on target
DataPitch 21% · Market 13%
Against this price: Gap +8pp
we evaluate this market and never bet it
Fabián BalbuenaLCB · #2Shots on target
DataPitch 16% · Market 15%
Against this price: Gap +1pp
we evaluate this market and never bet it
João PedroRB · #18Shots on target
DataPitch 23% · Market 24%
Against this price: Gap -1pp
we evaluate this market and never bet it
MaykLB · #77Shots on target
DataPitch 9% · Market 10%
Against this price: Gap -1pp
we evaluate this market and never bet it
Mathías VillasantiCAM · #20Shots on target
DataPitch 23% · Market 25%
Against this price: Gap -2pp
we evaluate this market and never bet it
WallaceLB · #82Shots on target
DataPitch 12% · Market 15%
Against this price: Gap -3pp
we evaluate this market and never bet it
Leonel PiccoLDM · #14Shots on target
DataPitch 24% · Market 29%
Against this price: Gap -5pp
we evaluate this market and never bet it
Cristian PavónRM · #7Shots on target
DataPitch 36% · Market 44%
Against this price: Gap -8pp
we evaluate this market and never bet it
Pedro GabrielLDM · #54Shots on target
DataPitch 13% · Market 22%
Against this price: Gap -9pp
we evaluate this market and never bet it
Carlos ViníciusST · #95Shots on target
DataPitch 58% · Market 69%
Against this price: Gap -11pp
we evaluate this market and never bet it
MarcelinhoRB · #79Shots on target
DataPitch 23% · Market 37%
Against this price: Gap -14pp
we evaluate this market and never bet it
Antonio GaleanoRM · #21Shots on target
DataPitch 42% · Market 60%
Against this price: Gap -18pp
we evaluate this market and never bet it
Gabriel TaliariST · #19Shots on target
DataPitch 44% · Market 64%
Against this price: Gap -20pp
we evaluate this market and never bet it
Francis AmuzuLM · #9Shots on target
DataPitch 31% · Market 55%
Against this price: Gap -24pp
we evaluate this market and never bet it
JádersonRDM · #10Shots on target
DataPitch 14% · Market 40%
Against this price: Gap -26pp
we evaluate this market and never bet it
Vitor BuenoLM · #15Shots on target
DataPitch 34% · Market 62%
Against this price: Gap -28pp
we evaluate this market and never bet it
Zé RicardoCAM · #55Shots on target
DataPitch 24% · Market 56%
Against this price: Gap -32pp
we evaluate this market and never bet it
The books expect about 5.5 cards.
Leonel PiccoLDM · #14To be booked
DataPitch 40% · Market 25%
Against this price: Gap +15pp
a calibrated probability, graded against what happened
Cristian PavónRM · #7To be booked
DataPitch 25% · Market 25%
Against this price: Gap +0pp
the price is fair, so there is nothing to back
Gabriel TaliariST · #19To be booked
DataPitch 30% · Market 32%
Against this price: Gap -2pp
the price is fair, so there is nothing to back
MarllonRCB · #13To be booked
DataPitch 18% · Market 25%
Against this price: Gap -7pp
the price is fair, so there is nothing to back
Carlos ViníciusST · #95To be booked
DataPitch 22% · Market 31%
Against this price: Gap -9pp
the price is fair, so there is nothing to back
Marcelo RangelGK · #88To be booked
DataPitch 0% · Market 12%
Against this price: Gap -12pp
the price is fair, so there is nothing to back
Francis AmuzuLM · #9To be booked
DataPitch 16% · Market 31%
Against this price: Gap -15pp
the price is fair, so there is nothing to back
Antonio GaleanoRM · #21To be booked
DataPitch 14% · Market 29%
Against this price: Gap -15pp
the price is fair, so there is nothing to back
Vitor BuenoLM · #15To be booked
DataPitch 16% · Market 32%
Against this price: Gap -16pp
the price is fair, so there is nothing to back
MaykLB · #77To be booked
DataPitch 6% · Market 23%
Against this price: Gap -17pp
the price is fair, so there is nothing to back
Fabián BalbuenaLCB · #2To be booked
DataPitch 16% · Market 35%
Against this price: Gap -19pp
the price is fair, so there is nothing to back
Duplexe TchambaLCB · #18To be booked
DataPitch 20% · Market 40%
Against this price: Gap -20pp
the price is fair, so there is nothing to back
Marcos RochaRCB · #14To be booked
DataPitch 20% · Market 40%
Against this price: Gap -20pp
the price is fair, so there is nothing to back
WevertonGK · #1To be booked
DataPitch 0% · Market 20%
Against this price: Gap -20pp
the price is fair, so there is nothing to back
Danilo BarbosaRDM · #15To be booked
DataPitch 23% · Market 45%
Against this price: Gap -22pp
the price is fair, so there is nothing to back
Mathías VillasantiCAM · #20To be booked
DataPitch 27% · Market 50%
Against this price: Gap -23pp
the price is fair, so there is nothing to back
Pedro GabrielLDM · #54To be booked
DataPitch 47%
no price
WallaceLB · #82To be booked
DataPitch 46%
no price
Zé RicardoCAM · #55To be booked
DataPitch 42%
no price
MarcelinhoRB · #79To be booked
DataPitch 27%
no price
JádersonRDM · #10To be booked
DataPitch 16%
no price
João PedroRB · #18To be booked
DataPitch 11%
no price
Duplexe TchambaLCB · #18Headed shot on target
DataPitch 24%
wins headers against a smaller marker (191cm over a 181cm back line); no corner line priced for his side yet
Carlos ViníciusST · #95Headed shot on target
DataPitch 23%
wins headers against a smaller marker (190cm over a 183cm back line); no corner line priced for his side yet
Fabián BalbuenaLCB · #2Headed shot on target
DataPitch 18%
wins headers against a smaller marker (188cm over a 183cm back line); no corner line priced for his side yet
MarllonRCB · #13Headed shot on target
DataPitch 16%
wins headers against a smaller marker (186cm over a 181cm back line); no corner line priced for his side yet
Leonel PiccoLDM · #14Headed shot on target
DataPitch 14%
wins headers against a smaller marker (192cm over a 181cm back line); no corner line priced for his side yet
WevertonGK · #1Headed shot on target
DataPitch 10%
wins headers against a smaller marker (189cm over a 183cm back line); no corner line priced for his side yet
Marcelo RangelGK · #88Headed shot on target
DataPitch 9%
wins headers against a smaller marker (187cm over a 181cm back line); no corner line priced for his side yet
Vitor BuenoLM · #15Headed shot on target
DataPitch 7%
wins headers against a smaller marker (184cm over a 181cm back line); no corner line priced for his side yet
João PedroRB · #18Headed shot on target
DataPitch 6%
gives up height in the air (179cm against a 183cm back line); no corner line priced for his side yet
Danilo BarbosaRDM · #15Headed shot on target
DataPitch 6%
level in the air (183cm against a 183cm back line); no corner line priced for his side yet
Gabriel TaliariST · #19Headed shot on target
DataPitch 5%
gives up height in the air (176cm against a 181cm back line); no corner line priced for his side yet
Marcos RochaRCB · #14Headed shot on target
DataPitch 4%
gives up height in the air (176cm against a 183cm back line); no corner line priced for his side yet
MaykLB · #77Headed shot on target
DataPitch 4%
gives up height in the air (172cm against a 181cm back line); no corner line priced for his side yet
Zé RicardoCAM · #55Headed shot on target
DataPitch 3%
gives up height in the air (179cm against a 181cm back line); no corner line priced for his side yet
Mathías VillasantiCAM · #20Headed shot on target
DataPitch 3%
gives up height in the air (178cm against a 183cm back line); no corner line priced for his side yet
Francis AmuzuLM · #9Headed shot on target
DataPitch 2%
gives up height in the air (170cm against a 183cm back line); no corner line priced for his side yet
Cristian PavónRM · #7Headed shot on target
DataPitch 2%
gives up height in the air (167cm against a 183cm back line); no corner line priced for his side yet
JádersonRDM · #10Headed shot on target
DataPitch 2%
gives up height in the air (171cm against a 181cm back line); no corner line priced for his side yet
Zé RicardoCAM · #55Shot on target from outside the box
DataPitch 24%
shoots from range 0.6 times a game across 10 logged matches
Antonio GaleanoRM · #21Shot on target from outside the box
DataPitch 21%
shoots from range 0.6 times a game across 8 logged matches
Gabriel TaliariST · #19Shot on target from outside the box
DataPitch 19%
shoots from range 0.5 times a game across 9 logged matches
MarcelinhoRB · #79Shot on target from outside the box
DataPitch 15%
shoots from range 0.4 times a game across 9 logged matches
Vitor BuenoLM · #15Shot on target from outside the box
DataPitch 14%
shoots from range 0.4 times a game across 10 logged matches
Cristian PavónRM · #7Shot on target from outside the box
DataPitch 12%
shoots from range 0.6 times a game across 8 logged matches
Carlos ViníciusST · #95Shot on target from outside the box
DataPitch 11%
shoots from range 0.5 times a game across 9 logged matches
WallaceLB · #82Shot on target from outside the box
DataPitch 10%
shoots from range 0.5 times a game across 7 logged matches
Pedro GabrielLDM · #54Shot on target from outside the box
DataPitch 8%
shoots from range 0.4 times a game across 8 logged matches
Duplexe TchambaLCB · #18Shot on target from outside the box
DataPitch 8%
shoots from range 0.2 times a game across 6 logged matches
Leonel PiccoLDM · #14Shot on target from outside the box
DataPitch 5%
shoots from range 0.1 times a game across 10 logged matches
Francis AmuzuLM · #9Shot on target from outside the box
DataPitch 4%
shoots from range 0.2 times a game across 7 logged matches
Mathías VillasantiCAM · #20Shot on target from outside the box
DataPitch 3%
shoots from range 0.1 times a game across 8 logged matches
JádersonRDM · #10Shot on target from outside the box
DataPitch 2%
no shots from outside the box in the 8 matches we have logged
MarllonRCB · #13Shot on target from outside the box
DataPitch 2%
no shots from outside the box in the 9 matches we have logged
Marcelo RangelGK · #88Shot on target from outside the box
DataPitch 2%
no shots from outside the box in the 9 matches we have logged
MaykLB · #77Shot on target from outside the box
DataPitch 2%
shoots from range 0.0 times a game across 6 logged matches
João PedroRB · #18Shot on target from outside the box
DataPitch 1%
no shots from outside the box in the 4 matches we have logged
WevertonGK · #1Shot on target from outside the box
DataPitch 1%
no shots from outside the box in the 13 matches we have logged
Fabián BalbuenaLCB · #2Shot on target from outside the box
DataPitch 1%
no shots from outside the box in the 8 matches we have logged
Marcos RochaRCB · #14Shot on target from outside the box
DataPitch 1%
no shots from outside the box in the 6 matches we have logged
Danilo BarbosaRDM · #15Shot on target from outside the box
DataPitch 1%
no shots from outside the box in the 5 matches we have logged
Tap any player for his numbers
Expected XI. Attack at the top, keeper at the bottom.
Match level, never per player. Work down the steps, set the match up the way you see it, then Simulate re-prices every row above in your browser.
How strict you think Davi de Oliveira Lacerda will be tonight
Our card model already has his record in it. This is your view on top of ours. Touches: cards, fouls and fouls drawn.
Who has the ball and who is chasing it
The side chasing shoots more and gets fouled more; the side in front tackles more. Touches: every market.
Pick the battles you are watching: an attacker and the defender on him
A battle is one attacker against the defender marking him. Add the duels you expect to shape the game and Simulate works them into both men's numbers. None picked yet, and none is fine.
We apply our matchup pivot to each pair and show you every row it moves. Two battles never stack on one player: the pivot has a ceiling and one battle already takes him there. Touches: fouls, fouls drawn and cards for those players.
We lean on the market where it is sharp
Off means our own numbers stand alone: the cards line stops setting the level and the goalscorer price stops lifting shots. Touches: cards, shots and shots on target.
This re-prices the rows we already evaluated. It does not re-decide which rows to evaluate or re-run the match itself.
strict, 84 matches
League average is 3.98 yellows a match.
Home 2.12/match · Away 2.69/match
5.34/match in tight games · 4.19/match in open ones
Price = the latest market price we hold, labelled by the venue quoting it, never a price of ours. Where we hold more than one book on a row, all of them are behind the row's tap with the best marked. A row's colour is the trade in the numbers on show: green positive, red negative, white neutral. Those numbers are the model replayed with your dials, in your browser, until the chip above swaps in DataPitch's own; either way the percentages, the market's own number and the gap between them live behind the row's tap. A row's last-5 history counts starts of 60+ minutes in the last 365 days, most recent first.