v
The rows below run on your numbers, and colour is the verdict: green a positive trade, red a negative one, white neutral. The chip recolours them from our model instead and opens our read on the match.
Raphael Claus runs average on cards, and 3 of the 4 rows we would back are RB Bragantino's.
210 lines on 8 markets, best first: tap a market to open it, tap a player for his other lines, his numbers and the arithmetic behind the colour.
Gustavo MarquesLCB · #16Fouls committed
DataPitch 55% · Market 60%
Against this price: Gap -5pp
the price is fair, so there is nothing to back
Juninho CapixabaLM · #29Fouls committed
DataPitch 74% · Market 82%
Against this price: Gap -8pp
price too short
Guzmán RodríguezLB · #2Fouls committed
DataPitch 54% · Market 62%
Against this price: Gap -8pp
the price is fair, so there is nothing to back
Ariel Sant'AnnaRB · #23Fouls committed
DataPitch 65% · Market 75%
Against this price: Gap -10pp
price too short
Willian MachadoLCB · #3Fouls committed
DataPitch 56% · Market 73%
Against this price: Gap -17pp
price too short
Isidro PittaST · #9Fouls committed
DataPitch 64% · Market 82%
Against this price: Gap -18pp
price too short
Bruno SantosRW · #30Fouls committed
DataPitch 63% · Market 82%
Against this price: Gap -19pp
price too short
João VictorRCB · #34Fouls committed
DataPitch 47% · Market 69%
Against this price: Gap -22pp
price too short
ReinaldoLB · #6Fouls committed
DataPitch 51% · Market 74%
Against this price: Gap -23pp
price too short
Igor FormigaRB · #32Fouls committed
DataPitch 63% · Market 88%
Against this price: Gap -25pp
price too short
FernandoCAM · #11Fouls committed
DataPitch 51% · Market 77%
Against this price: Gap -26pp
price too short
DenilsonCM · #27Fouls committed
DataPitch 64% · Market 92%
Against this price: Gap -28pp
price too short
José AldoLCM · #21Fouls committed
DataPitch 66% · Market 95%
Against this price: Gap -29pp
price too short
FabinhoLDM · #5Fouls committed
DataPitch 54% · Market 88%
Against this price: Gap -34pp
price too short
Neto MouraRCM · #25Fouls committed
DataPitch 53% · Market 88%
Against this price: Gap -35pp
price too short
Eric RamiresRDM · #7Fouls committed
DataPitch 52% · Market 88%
Against this price: Gap -36pp
price too short
EduardoST · #33Fouls committed
DataPitch 44% · Market 83%
Against this price: Gap -39pp
price too short
Juninho CapixabaLM · #29Fouls drawn
DataPitch 76% · Market 78%
Against this price: Gap -2pp
price too short
Gustavo MarquesLCB · #16Fouls drawn
DataPitch 53% · Market 65%
Against this price: Gap -12pp
price too short
Willian MachadoLCB · #3Fouls drawn
DataPitch 38% · Market 50%
Against this price: Gap -12pp
the price is fair, so there is nothing to back
FernandoCAM · #11Fouls drawn
DataPitch 65% · Market 78%
Against this price: Gap -13pp
price too short
Guzmán RodríguezLB · #2Fouls drawn
DataPitch 35% · Market 48%
Against this price: Gap -13pp
the price is fair, so there is nothing to back
João VictorRCB · #34Fouls drawn
DataPitch 35% · Market 50%
Against this price: Gap -15pp
the price is fair, so there is nothing to back
Bruno SantosRW · #30Fouls drawn
DataPitch 62% · Market 78%
Against this price: Gap -16pp
price too short
Ariel Sant'AnnaRB · #23Fouls drawn
DataPitch 40% · Market 56%
Against this price: Gap -16pp
the price is fair, so there is nothing to back
José AldoLCM · #21Fouls drawn
DataPitch 50% · Market 67%
Against this price: Gap -17pp
price too short
Eric RamiresRDM · #7Fouls drawn
DataPitch 61% · Market 80%
Against this price: Gap -19pp
price too short
DenilsonCM · #27Fouls drawn
DataPitch 56% · Market 77%
Against this price: Gap -21pp
price too short
ReinaldoLB · #6Fouls drawn
DataPitch 48% · Market 69%
Against this price: Gap -21pp
price too short
Neto MouraRCM · #25Fouls drawn
DataPitch 37% · Market 58%
Against this price: Gap -21pp
the price is fair, so there is nothing to back
Isidro PittaST · #9Fouls drawn
DataPitch 42% · Market 69%
Against this price: Gap -27pp
price too short
Igor FormigaRB · #32Fouls drawn
DataPitch 33% · Market 62%
Against this price: Gap -29pp
the price is fair, so there is nothing to back
EduardoST · #33Fouls drawn
DataPitch 41% · Market 74%
Against this price: Gap -33pp
price too short
FabinhoLDM · #5Fouls drawn
DataPitch 42% · Market 80%
Against this price: Gap -38pp
price too short
Bruno SantosRW · #30Tackles
DataPitch 27% · Market 29%
Against this price: Gap -2pp
the price is fair, so there is nothing to back
Isidro PittaST · #9Tackles
DataPitch 18% · Market 22%
Against this price: Gap -4pp
price too long
Willian MachadoLCB · #3Tackles
DataPitch 37% · Market 48%
Against this price: Gap -11pp
the price is fair, so there is nothing to back
Igor FormigaRB · #32Tackles
DataPitch 57% · Market 69%
Against this price: Gap -12pp
price too short
Juninho CapixabaLM · #29Tackles
DataPitch 56% · Market 69%
Against this price: Gap -13pp
price too short
Guzmán RodríguezLB · #2Tackles
DataPitch 23% · Market 38%
Against this price: Gap -15pp
the price is fair, so there is nothing to back
DenilsonCM · #27Tackles
DataPitch 44% · Market 62%
Against this price: Gap -18pp
the price is fair, so there is nothing to back
Eric RamiresRDM · #7Tackles
DataPitch 27% · Market 48%
Against this price: Gap -21pp
the price is fair, so there is nothing to back
Neto MouraRCM · #25Tackles
DataPitch 41% · Market 69%
Against this price: Gap -28pp
price too short
José AldoLCM · #21Tackles
DataPitch 40% · Market 69%
Against this price: Gap -29pp
price too short
Ariel Sant'AnnaRB · #23Tackles
DataPitch 39% · Market 69%
Against this price: Gap -30pp
price too short
Gustavo MarquesLCB · #16Tackles
DataPitch 35% · Market 69%
Against this price: Gap -34pp
price too short
EduardoST · #33Shots
DataPitch 88% · Market 85%
Against this price: Gap +3pp
we evaluate this market and never bet it
FernandoCAM · #11Shots
DataPitch 100% · Market 98%
Against this price: Gap +2pp
we evaluate this market and never bet it
Bruno SantosRW · #30Shots
DataPitch 89% · Market 88%
Against this price: Gap +1pp
we evaluate this market and never bet it
José AldoLCM · #21Shots
DataPitch 58% · Market 64%
Against this price: Gap -6pp
we evaluate this market and never bet it
Isidro PittaST · #9Shots
DataPitch 88% · Market 95%
Against this price: Gap -7pp
we evaluate this market and never bet it
Juninho CapixabaLM · #29Shots
DataPitch 72% · Market 80%
Against this price: Gap -8pp
we evaluate this market and never bet it
Igor FormigaRB · #32Shots
DataPitch 58% · Market 69%
Against this price: Gap -11pp
we evaluate this market and never bet it
Willian MachadoLCB · #3Shots
DataPitch 24% · Market 36%
Against this price: Gap -12pp
we evaluate this market and never bet it
Gustavo MarquesLCB · #16Shots
DataPitch 51% · Market 64%
Against this price: Gap -13pp
we evaluate this market and never bet it
João VictorRCB · #34Shots
DataPitch 38% · Market 52%
Against this price: Gap -14pp
we evaluate this market and never bet it
Neto MouraRCM · #25Shots
DataPitch 43% · Market 60%
Against this price: Gap -17pp
we evaluate this market and never bet it
ReinaldoLB · #6Shots
DataPitch 56% · Market 83%
Against this price: Gap -27pp
we evaluate this market and never bet it
Eric RamiresRDM · #7Shots
DataPitch 31% · Market 64%
Against this price: Gap -33pp
we evaluate this market and never bet it
DenilsonCM · #27Shots
DataPitch 11% · Market 45%
Against this price: Gap -34pp
we evaluate this market and never bet it
Guzmán RodríguezLB · #2Shots
DataPitch 20% · Market 55%
Against this price: Gap -35pp
we evaluate this market and never bet it
Ariel Sant'AnnaRB · #23Shots
DataPitch 37% · Market 83%
Against this price: Gap -46pp
we evaluate this market and never bet it
FabinhoLDM · #5Shots
DataPitch 5% · Market 67%
Against this price: Gap -62pp
we evaluate this market and never bet it
DenilsonCM · #27Shots on target
DataPitch 23% · Market 20%
Against this price: Gap +3pp
we evaluate this market and never bet it
Willian MachadoLCB · #3Shots on target
DataPitch 22% · Market 20%
Against this price: Gap +2pp
we evaluate this market and never bet it
José AldoLCM · #21Shots on target
DataPitch 27% · Market 29%
Against this price: Gap -2pp
we evaluate this market and never bet it
Eric RamiresRDM · #7Shots on target
DataPitch 25% · Market 27%
Against this price: Gap -2pp
we evaluate this market and never bet it
João VictorRCB · #34Shots on target
DataPitch 20% · Market 23%
Against this price: Gap -3pp
we evaluate this market and never bet it
Juninho CapixabaLM · #29Shots on target
DataPitch 31% · Market 35%
Against this price: Gap -4pp
we evaluate this market and never bet it
Gustavo MarquesLCB · #16Shots on target
DataPitch 29% · Market 33%
Against this price: Gap -4pp
we evaluate this market and never bet it
Neto MouraRCM · #25Shots on target
DataPitch 20% · Market 25%
Against this price: Gap -5pp
we evaluate this market and never bet it
Guzmán RodríguezLB · #2Shots on target
DataPitch 12% · Market 20%
Against this price: Gap -8pp
we evaluate this market and never bet it
Igor FormigaRB · #32Shots on target
DataPitch 27% · Market 36%
Against this price: Gap -9pp
we evaluate this market and never bet it
Ariel Sant'AnnaRB · #23Shots on target
DataPitch 26% · Market 37%
Against this price: Gap -11pp
we evaluate this market and never bet it
ReinaldoLB · #6Shots on target
DataPitch 30% · Market 45%
Against this price: Gap -15pp
we evaluate this market and never bet it
FernandoCAM · #11Shots on target
DataPitch 55% · Market 74%
Against this price: Gap -19pp
we evaluate this market and never bet it
Bruno SantosRW · #30Shots on target
DataPitch 36% · Market 55%
Against this price: Gap -19pp
we evaluate this market and never bet it
EduardoST · #33Shots on target
DataPitch 35% · Market 56%
Against this price: Gap -21pp
we evaluate this market and never bet it
FabinhoLDM · #5Shots on target
DataPitch 0% · Market 27%
Against this price: Gap -27pp
we evaluate this market and never bet it
Isidro PittaST · #9Shots on target
DataPitch 43% · Market 71%
Against this price: Gap -28pp
we evaluate this market and never bet it
The books expect about 4.5 cards.
Juninho CapixabaLM · #29To be booked
DataPitch 40% · Market 23%
Against this price: Gap +17pp
a calibrated probability, graded against what happened
José AldoLCM · #21To be booked
DataPitch 44% · Market 29%
Against this price: Gap +15pp
a calibrated probability, graded against what happened
Ariel Sant'AnnaRB · #23To be booked
DataPitch 32% · Market 27%
Against this price: Gap +5pp
a calibrated probability, graded against what happened
Isidro PittaST · #9To be booked
DataPitch 18% · Market 13%
Against this price: Gap +5pp
the price is fair, so there is nothing to back
DenilsonCM · #27To be booked
DataPitch 37% · Market 36%
Against this price: Gap +1pp
the price is fair, so there is nothing to back
Willian MachadoLCB · #3To be booked
DataPitch 15% · Market 17%
Against this price: Gap -2pp
the price is fair, so there is nothing to back
Eric RamiresRDM · #7To be booked
DataPitch 15% · Market 18%
Against this price: Gap -3pp
the price is fair, so there is nothing to back
Neto MouraRCM · #25To be booked
DataPitch 29% · Market 33%
Against this price: Gap -4pp
the price is fair, so there is nothing to back
Igor FormigaRB · #32To be booked
DataPitch 23% · Market 31%
Against this price: Gap -8pp
the price is fair, so there is nothing to back
Bruno SantosRW · #30To be booked
DataPitch 14% · Market 23%
Against this price: Gap -9pp
the price is fair, so there is nothing to back
Gustavo MarquesLCB · #16To be booked
DataPitch 12% · Market 21%
Against this price: Gap -9pp
the price is fair, so there is nothing to back
Eduardo SantosRCB · #3To be booked
DataPitch 12% · Market 23%
Against this price: Gap -11pp
the price is fair, so there is nothing to back
Tiago VolpiGK · #18To be booked
DataPitch 0% · Market 12%
Against this price: Gap -12pp
the price is fair, so there is nothing to back
Guzmán RodríguezLB · #2To be booked
DataPitch 18% · Market 32%
Against this price: Gap -14pp
the price is fair, so there is nothing to back
FernandoCAM · #11To be booked
DataPitch 25%
no price
ReinaldoLB · #6To be booked
DataPitch 21%
no price
FabinhoLDM · #5To be booked
DataPitch 19%
no price
EduardoST · #33To be booked
DataPitch 15%
no price
João VictorRCB · #34To be booked
DataPitch 15%
no price
WallaceRM · #47WallaceRM · #47To be booked
DataPitch 15%
no price
ChicoLW · #10ChicoLW · #10To be booked
DataPitch 11%
no price
WalterGK · #22WalterGK · #22To be booked
DataPitch 0%
no price
João VictorRCB · #34Headed shot on target
DataPitch 19%
wins headers against a smaller marker (188cm over a 181cm back line); no corner line priced for his side yet
Willian MachadoLCB · #3Headed shot on target
DataPitch 16%
wins headers against a smaller marker (186cm over a 181cm back line); no corner line priced for his side yet
Gustavo MarquesLCB · #16Headed shot on target
DataPitch 15%
wins headers against a smaller marker (186cm over a 182cm back line); no corner line priced for his side yet
Bruno SantosRW · #30Headed shot on target
DataPitch 15%
wins headers against a smaller marker (185cm over a 181cm back line); no corner line priced for his side yet
Isidro PittaST · #9Headed shot on target
DataPitch 12%
level in the air (183cm against a 182cm back line); no corner line priced for his side yet
Guzmán RodríguezLB · #2Headed shot on target
DataPitch 11%
level in the air (183cm against a 182cm back line); no corner line priced for his side yet
Tiago VolpiGK · #18Headed shot on target
DataPitch 11%
wins headers against a smaller marker (189cm over a 182cm back line); no corner line priced for his side yet
EduardoST · #33Headed shot on target
DataPitch 5%
gives up height in the air (177cm against a 181cm back line); no corner line priced for his side yet
ReinaldoLB · #6Headed shot on target
DataPitch 5%
gives up height in the air (178cm against a 181cm back line); no corner line priced for his side yet
Igor FormigaRB · #32Headed shot on target
DataPitch 5%
gives up height in the air (177cm against a 181cm back line); no corner line priced for his side yet
ChicoLW · #10ChicoLW · #10Headed shot on target
DataPitch 5%
gives up height in the air (174cm against a 181cm back line); no corner line priced for his side yet
Ariel Sant'AnnaRB · #23Headed shot on target
DataPitch 4%
gives up height in the air (175cm against a 182cm back line); no corner line priced for his side yet
FabinhoLDM · #5Headed shot on target
DataPitch 3%
gives up height in the air (178cm against a 182cm back line); no corner line priced for his side yet
Neto MouraRCM · #25Headed shot on target
DataPitch 3%
gives up height in the air (176cm against a 181cm back line); no corner line priced for his side yet
FernandoCAM · #11Headed shot on target
DataPitch 2%
gives up height in the air (176cm against a 182cm back line); no corner line priced for his side yet
Juninho CapixabaLM · #29Headed shot on target
DataPitch 2%
gives up height in the air (176cm against a 182cm back line); no corner line priced for his side yet
Eric RamiresRDM · #7Headed shot on target
DataPitch 2%
gives up height in the air (172cm against a 182cm back line); no corner line priced for his side yet
José AldoLCM · #21Headed shot on target
DataPitch 2%
gives up height in the air (174cm against a 181cm back line); no corner line priced for his side yet
FernandoCAM · #11Shot on target from outside the box
DataPitch 43%
shoots from range 1.3 times a game across 7 logged matches
Ariel Sant'AnnaRB · #23Shot on target from outside the box
DataPitch 23%
shoots from range 0.7 times a game across 7 logged matches
Juninho CapixabaLM · #29Shot on target from outside the box
DataPitch 23%
shoots from range 0.7 times a game across 8 logged matches
WallaceRM · #47WallaceRM · #47Shot on target from outside the box
DataPitch 15%
shoots from range 0.5 times a game across 7 logged matches
ReinaldoLB · #6Shot on target from outside the box
DataPitch 12%
shoots from range 0.8 times a game across 10 logged matches
Igor FormigaRB · #32Shot on target from outside the box
DataPitch 10%
shoots from range 0.7 times a game across 10 logged matches
FabinhoLDM · #5Shot on target from outside the box
DataPitch 9%
shoots from range 0.3 times a game across 8 logged matches
EduardoST · #33Shot on target from outside the box
DataPitch 9%
shoots from range 0.6 times a game across 8 logged matches
Gustavo MarquesLCB · #16Shot on target from outside the box
DataPitch 8%
shoots from range 0.2 times a game across 9 logged matches
Bruno SantosRW · #30Shot on target from outside the box
DataPitch 6%
shoots from range 0.4 times a game across 10 logged matches
José AldoLCM · #21Shot on target from outside the box
DataPitch 5%
shoots from range 0.2 times a game across 2 logged matches
ChicoLW · #10ChicoLW · #10Shot on target from outside the box
DataPitch 4%
shoots from range 0.3 times a game across 10 logged matches
Neto MouraRCM · #25Shot on target from outside the box
DataPitch 3%
shoots from range 0.2 times a game across 5 logged matches
DenilsonCM · #27Shot on target from outside the box
DataPitch 3%
shoots from range 0.2 times a game across 8 logged matches
Isidro PittaST · #9Shot on target from outside the box
DataPitch 2%
shoots from range 0.1 times a game across 13 logged matches
Guzmán RodríguezLB · #2Shot on target from outside the box
DataPitch 2%
shoots from range 0.1 times a game across 10 logged matches
Tiago VolpiGK · #18Shot on target from outside the box
DataPitch 2%
no shots from outside the box in the 10 matches we have logged
Eric RamiresRDM · #7Shot on target from outside the box
DataPitch 2%
shoots from range 0.0 times a game across 10 logged matches
Eduardo SantosRCB · #3Shot on target from outside the box
DataPitch 2%
no shots from outside the box in the 7 matches we have logged
Willian MachadoLCB · #3Shot on target from outside the box
DataPitch 2%
shoots from range 0.1 times a game across 9 logged matches
WalterGK · #22WalterGK · #22Shot on target from outside the box
DataPitch 1%
no shots from outside the box in the 6 matches we have logged
João VictorRCB · #34Shot on target from outside the box
DataPitch 1%
shoots from range 0.0 times a game across 9 logged matches
Tap any player for his numbers
Expected XI. Attack at the top, keeper at the bottom.
Match level, never per player. Work down the steps, set the match up the way you see it, then Simulate re-prices every row above in your browser.
How strict you think Raphael Claus will be tonight
Our card model already has his record in it. This is your view on top of ours. Touches: cards, fouls and fouls drawn.
Who has the ball and who is chasing it
The side chasing shoots more and gets fouled more; the side in front tackles more. Touches: every market.
Pick the battles you are watching: an attacker and the defender on him
A battle is one attacker against the defender marking him. Add the duels you expect to shape the game and Simulate works them into both men's numbers. None picked yet, and none is fine.
We apply our matchup pivot to each pair and show you every row it moves. Two battles never stack on one player: the pivot has a ceiling and one battle already takes him there. Touches: fouls, fouls drawn and cards for those players.
We lean on the market where it is sharp
Off means our own numbers stand alone: the cards line stops setting the level and the goalscorer price stops lifting shots. Touches: cards, shots and shots on target.
This re-prices the rows we already evaluated. It does not re-decide which rows to evaluate or re-run the match itself.
average, 203 matches
League average is 3.98 yellows a match.
Home 2.06/match · Away 2.17/match
4.14/match in tight games · 4.34/match in open ones
Price = the latest market price we hold, labelled by the venue quoting it, never a price of ours. Where we hold more than one book on a row, all of them are behind the row's tap with the best marked. A row's colour is the trade in the numbers on show: green positive, red negative, white neutral. Those numbers are the model replayed with your dials, in your browser, until the chip above swaps in DataPitch's own; either way the percentages, the market's own number and the gap between them live behind the row's tap. A row's last-5 history counts starts of 60+ minutes in the last 365 days, most recent first.