We use analytics to see what works.
Our numbers from 20,000 simulated seasons, pulled toward the market, then a slider to build your own.
Win the Super Bowl+3604DataPitch 2%Market 3% · Gap -1pp
Do not win the conference-1770DataPitch 96%Market 95% · Gap +1pp
Do not win the division-326DataPitch 79%Market 77% · Gap +2pp
Miss the playoffs-133DataPitch 61%Market 57% · Gap +4pp
Expected wins8.4Market 7.2EXCHANGE
Model 8.4, you8.4
Players
These move with the team prices above. Drag the win total below.
Passing yards leaderQB
C.J. StroudHOU+5569DataPitch 4%Market 2%Gap +2pp
Our own projection.
Rushing yards leaderRB
Woody MarksHOUn/a Market n/a
Our own projection.
Receiving yards leaderWR
Nico CollinsHOU+2559 DataPitch 3%Market 4%Gap -1pp
Our own projection.
Sim it yourself
Drag the win total, or force two or three results below. Everything above reprices off the same simulated seasons.
Force a result
Ranked by how much each game actually swings this team's playoff price. Pick up to 3.
vs Bills leverage 35pp
vs Bengals leverage 35pp
vs Colts leverage 35pp
vs Cowboys leverage 35pp
vs Titans leverage 35pp
vs Jaguars leverage 35ppvs Jaguars leverage 30pp 
vs Steelers leverage 29ppAdvanced: force a playoff path
Texans reaches a stage of the postseason, not just wins one game. Combines with the win total and forced games above. Pick one, or none.
