v
The rows below run on your numbers, and colour is the verdict: green a positive trade, red a negative one, white neutral. The chip recolours them from our model instead and opens our read on the match.
Lorenzo Hernandez runs average on cards, and 2 of the 2 rows we would back are San Jose Earthquakes's.
166 lines on 6 markets, best first: tap a market to open it, tap a player for his other lines, his numbers and the arithmetic behind the colour.
K. MillerLCB · #4Fouls committed
DataPitch 58% · Market 62%
Against this price: Gap -4pp
at our corrected probability the price is fair
T. WernerLM · #11Fouls committed
DataPitch 55% · Market 62%
Against this price: Gap -7pp
the price is fair, so there is nothing to back
N. TsakirisRM · #10Fouls committed
DataPitch 62% · Market 71%
Against this price: Gap -9pp
price too short
D. MunieCB · #5Fouls committed
DataPitch 48% · Market 58%
Against this price: Gap -10pp
the price is fair, so there is nothing to back
Beau LerouxLCM · #34Fouls committed
DataPitch 65% · Market 77%
Against this price: Gap -12pp
price too short
C. BassettRCM · #17Fouls committed
DataPitch 58% · Market 71%
Against this price: Gap -13pp
price too short
David Pereira da CostaLCM · #10Fouls committed
DataPitch 49% · Market 62%
Against this price: Gap -13pp
the price is fair, so there is nothing to back
K. VeldeLW · #99Fouls committed
DataPitch 60% · Market 77%
Against this price: Gap -17pp
price too short
D. RomneyRCB · #4Fouls committed
DataPitch 47% · Market 65%
Against this price: Gap -18pp
price too short
J. ForyLB · #27Fouls committed
DataPitch 58% · Market 82%
Against this price: Gap -24pp
price too short
A. LassiterRW · #7Fouls committed
DataPitch 40% · Market 67%
Against this price: Gap -27pp
price too short
R. RobertsLCB · #18Fouls committed
DataPitch 57% · Market 85%
Against this price: Gap -28pp
price too short
I. HarkesLAM · #6Fouls committed
DataPitch 62% · Market 95%
Against this price: Gap -33pp
price too short
C. BassettRCM · #17Shots
DataPitch 88% · Market 82%
Against this price: Gap +6pp
we evaluate this market and never bet it
K. VeldeLW · #99Shots
DataPitch 97% · Market 94%
Against this price: Gap +3pp
we evaluate this market and never bet it
T. WernerLM · #11Shots
DataPitch 93% · Market 98%
Against this price: Gap -5pp
we evaluate this market and never bet it
V. JanssenST · #14Shots
DataPitch 89% · Market 97%
Against this price: Gap -8pp
we evaluate this market and never bet it
B. ByeRB · #5Shots
DataPitch 53% · Market 64%
Against this price: Gap -11pp
we evaluate this market and never bet it
O. BoudaST · #7Shots
DataPitch 85% · Market 97%
Against this price: Gap -12pp
we evaluate this market and never bet it
Beau LerouxLCM · #34Shots
DataPitch 76% · Market 88%
Against this price: Gap -12pp
we evaluate this market and never bet it
N. TsakirisRM · #10Shots
DataPitch 74% · Market 91%
Against this price: Gap -17pp
we evaluate this market and never bet it
D. MunieCB · #5Shots
DataPitch 42% · Market 64%
Against this price: Gap -22pp
we evaluate this market and never bet it
J. ForyLB · #27Shots
DataPitch 11% · Market 36%
Against this price: Gap -25pp
we evaluate this market and never bet it
I. HarkesLAM · #6Shots
DataPitch 49% · Market 75%
Against this price: Gap -26pp
we evaluate this market and never bet it
R. VieiraRCM · #14Shots
DataPitch 36% · Market 64%
Against this price: Gap -28pp
we evaluate this market and never bet it
A. LassiterRW · #7Shots
DataPitch 61% · Market 92%
Against this price: Gap -31pp
we evaluate this market and never bet it
D. RomneyRCB · #4Shots
DataPitch 25% · Market 56%
Against this price: Gap -31pp
we evaluate this market and never bet it
R. RobertsLCB · #18Shots
DataPitch 31% · Market 64%
Against this price: Gap -33pp
we evaluate this market and never bet it
David Pereira da CostaLCM · #10Shots
DataPitch 54% · Market 88%
Against this price: Gap -34pp
we evaluate this market and never bet it
K. MillerLCB · #4Shots
DataPitch 10% · Market 44%
Against this price: Gap -34pp
we evaluate this market and never bet it
J. CaicedoCM · #30Shots
DataPitch 23% · Market 58%
Against this price: Gap -35pp
we evaluate this market and never bet it
F. SurmanRCB · #20Shots
DataPitch 13% · Market 56%
Against this price: Gap -43pp
we evaluate this market and never bet it
B. ByeRB · #5Shots on target
DataPitch 29% · Market 27%
Against this price: Gap +2pp
we evaluate this market and never bet it
R. RobertsLCB · #18Shots on target
DataPitch 25% · Market 24%
Against this price: Gap +1pp
we evaluate this market and never bet it
J. CaicedoCM · #30Shots on target
DataPitch 24% · Market 25%
Against this price: Gap -1pp
we evaluate this market and never bet it
J. ForyLB · #27Shots on target
DataPitch 17% · Market 18%
Against this price: Gap -1pp
we evaluate this market and never bet it
D. RomneyRCB · #4Shots on target
DataPitch 20% · Market 25%
Against this price: Gap -5pp
we evaluate this market and never bet it
K. MillerLCB · #4Shots on target
DataPitch 14% · Market 20%
Against this price: Gap -6pp
we evaluate this market and never bet it
D. MunieCB · #5Shots on target
DataPitch 28% · Market 35%
Against this price: Gap -7pp
we evaluate this market and never bet it
K. VeldeLW · #99Shots on target
DataPitch 56% · Market 65%
Against this price: Gap -9pp
we evaluate this market and never bet it
C. BassettRCM · #17Shots on target
DataPitch 35% · Market 44%
Against this price: Gap -9pp
we evaluate this market and never bet it
David Pereira da CostaLCM · #10Shots on target
DataPitch 38% · Market 48%
Against this price: Gap -10pp
we evaluate this market and never bet it
R. VieiraRCM · #14Shots on target
DataPitch 19% · Market 31%
Against this price: Gap -12pp
we evaluate this market and never bet it
I. HarkesLAM · #6Shots on target
DataPitch 25% · Market 38%
Against this price: Gap -13pp
we evaluate this market and never bet it
F. SurmanRCB · #20Shots on target
DataPitch 12% · Market 27%
Against this price: Gap -15pp
we evaluate this market and never bet it
Beau LerouxLCM · #34Shots on target
DataPitch 38% · Market 55%
Against this price: Gap -17pp
we evaluate this market and never bet it
T. WernerLM · #11Shots on target
DataPitch 57% · Market 80%
Against this price: Gap -23pp
we evaluate this market and never bet it
V. JanssenST · #14Shots on target
DataPitch 49% · Market 73%
Against this price: Gap -24pp
we evaluate this market and never bet it
O. BoudaST · #7Shots on target
DataPitch 46% · Market 73%
Against this price: Gap -27pp
we evaluate this market and never bet it
N. TsakirisRM · #10Shots on target
DataPitch 30% · Market 60%
Against this price: Gap -30pp
we evaluate this market and never bet it
A. LassiterRW · #7Shots on target
DataPitch 30% · Market 62%
Against this price: Gap -32pp
we evaluate this market and never bet it
The books expect about 4 cards.
R. VieiraRCM · #14To be booked
DataPitch 42% · Market 35%
Against this price: Gap +7pp
a calibrated probability, graded against what happened
R. RobertsLCB · #18To be booked
DataPitch 31% · Market 27%
Against this price: Gap +4pp
a calibrated probability, graded against what happened
K. VeldeLW · #99To be booked
DataPitch 21% · Market 21%
Against this price: Gap +0pp
the price is fair, so there is nothing to back
B. ByeRB · #5To be booked
DataPitch 16% · Market 17%
Against this price: Gap -1pp
the price is fair, so there is nothing to back
K. MillerLCB · #4To be booked
DataPitch 24% · Market 27%
Against this price: Gap -3pp
the price is fair, so there is nothing to back
C. BassettRCM · #17To be booked
DataPitch 17% · Market 21%
Against this price: Gap -4pp
the price is fair, so there is nothing to back
V. JanssenST · #14To be booked
DataPitch 24% · Market 29%
Against this price: Gap -5pp
the price is fair, so there is nothing to back
J. CaicedoCM · #30To be booked
DataPitch 26% · Market 33%
Against this price: Gap -7pp
the price is fair, so there is nothing to back
Beau LerouxLCM · #34To be booked
DataPitch 20% · Market 27%
Against this price: Gap -7pp
the price is fair, so there is nothing to back
David Pereira da CostaLCM · #10To be booked
DataPitch 10% · Market 17%
Against this price: Gap -7pp
the price is fair, so there is nothing to back
T. WernerLM · #11To be booked
DataPitch 10% · Market 17%
Against this price: Gap -7pp
the price is fair, so there is nothing to back
O. BoudaST · #7To be booked
DataPitch 19% · Market 27%
Against this price: Gap -8pp
the price is fair, so there is nothing to back
N. TsakirisRM · #10To be booked
DataPitch 17% · Market 25%
Against this price: Gap -8pp
the price is fair, so there is nothing to back
D. MunieCB · #5To be booked
DataPitch 14% · Market 22%
Against this price: Gap -8pp
the price is fair, so there is nothing to back
A. LassiterRW · #7To be booked
DataPitch 12% · Market 21%
Against this price: Gap -9pp
the price is fair, so there is nothing to back
I. HarkesLAM · #6To be booked
DataPitch 21% · Market 31%
Against this price: Gap -10pp
the price is fair, so there is nothing to back
D. RomneyRCB · #4To be booked
DataPitch 5% · Market 15%
Against this price: Gap -10pp
the price is fair, so there is nothing to back
J. ForyLB · #27To be booked
DataPitch 25% · Market 36%
Against this price: Gap -11pp
the price is fair, so there is nothing to back
J. PantemisGK · #41To be booked
DataPitch 0% · Market 11%
Against this price: Gap -11pp
the price is fair, so there is nothing to back
J. GónzalezRAM · #40To be booked
DataPitch 12% · Market 27%
Against this price: Gap -15pp
the price is fair, so there is nothing to back
F. SurmanRCB · #20To be booked
DataPitch 8% · Market 23%
Against this price: Gap -15pp
the price is fair, so there is nothing to back
A. GunnGK · #1To be booked
DataPitch 0% · Market 17%
Against this price: Gap -17pp
the price is fair, so there is nothing to back
F. SurmanRCB · #20Headed shot on target
DataPitch 20%
wins headers against a smaller marker (190cm over a 185cm back line); no corner line priced for his side yet
D. RomneyRCB · #4Headed shot on target
DataPitch 17%
wins headers against a smaller marker (188cm over a 186cm back line); no corner line priced for his side yet
A. GunnGK · #1Headed shot on target
DataPitch 16%
wins headers against a smaller marker (196cm over a 186cm back line); no corner line priced for his side yet
J. ForyLB · #27Headed shot on target
DataPitch 15%
level in the air (187cm against a 185cm back line); no corner line priced for his side yet
R. RobertsLCB · #18Headed shot on target
DataPitch 12%
level in the air (185cm against a 186cm back line); no corner line priced for his side yet
V. JanssenST · #14Headed shot on target
DataPitch 12%
level in the air (184cm against a 185cm back line); no corner line priced for his side yet
K. MillerLCB · #4Headed shot on target
DataPitch 10%
gives up height in the air (183cm against a 185cm back line); no corner line priced for his side yet
B. ByeRB · #5Headed shot on target
DataPitch 10%
gives up height in the air (183cm against a 185cm back line); no corner line priced for his side yet
D. MunieCB · #5Headed shot on target
DataPitch 10%
gives up height in the air (183cm against a 186cm back line); no corner line priced for his side yet
J. PantemisGK · #41Headed shot on target
DataPitch 6%
level in the air (185cm against a 185cm back line); no corner line priced for his side yet
K. VeldeLW · #99Headed shot on target
DataPitch 6%
gives up height in the air (179cm against a 185cm back line); no corner line priced for his side yet
A. LassiterRW · #7Headed shot on target
DataPitch 5%
gives up height in the air (178cm against a 185cm back line); no corner line priced for his side yet
O. BoudaST · #7Headed shot on target
DataPitch 5%
gives up height in the air (175cm against a 186cm back line); no corner line priced for his side yet
C. BassettRCM · #17Headed shot on target
DataPitch 3%
gives up height in the air (180cm against a 185cm back line); no corner line priced for his side yet
T. WernerLM · #11Headed shot on target
DataPitch 3%
gives up height in the air (180cm against a 186cm back line); no corner line priced for his side yet
I. HarkesLAM · #6Headed shot on target
DataPitch 3%
gives up height in the air (180cm against a 186cm back line); no corner line priced for his side yet
J. CaicedoCM · #30Headed shot on target
DataPitch 3%
gives up height in the air (179cm against a 185cm back line); no corner line priced for his side yet
R. VieiraRCM · #14Headed shot on target
DataPitch 2%
gives up height in the air (178cm against a 186cm back line); no corner line priced for his side yet
J. GónzalezRAM · #40Headed shot on target
DataPitch 2%
gives up height in the air (175cm against a 186cm back line); no corner line priced for his side yet
David Pereira da CostaLCM · #10Headed shot on target
DataPitch 2%
gives up height in the air (168cm against a 185cm back line); no corner line priced for his side yet
N. TsakirisRM · #10Headed shot on target
DataPitch 2%
gives up height in the air (178cm against a 186cm back line); no corner line priced for his side yet
K. VeldeLW · #99Shot on target from outside the box
DataPitch 23%
shoots from range 1.8 times a game across 10 logged matches
T. WernerLM · #11Shot on target from outside the box
DataPitch 18%
shoots from range 0.9 times a game across 4 logged matches
I. HarkesLAM · #6Shot on target from outside the box
DataPitch 11%
shoots from range 0.6 times a game across 8 logged matches
A. LassiterRW · #7Shot on target from outside the box
DataPitch 10%
shoots from range 0.8 times a game across 11 logged matches
C. BassettRCM · #17Shot on target from outside the box
DataPitch 8%
shoots from range 0.7 times a game across 11 logged matches
R. VieiraRCM · #14Shot on target from outside the box
DataPitch 7%
shoots from range 0.4 times a game across 6 logged matches
Beau LerouxLCM · #34Shot on target from outside the box
DataPitch 7%
shoots from range 0.3 times a game across 8 logged matches
N. TsakirisRM · #10Shot on target from outside the box
DataPitch 6%
shoots from range 0.3 times a game across 6 logged matches
David Pereira da CostaLCM · #10Shot on target from outside the box
DataPitch 5%
shoots from range 0.4 times a game across 10 logged matches
V. JanssenST · #14Shot on target from outside the box
DataPitch 4%
shoots from range 0.3 times a game across 5 logged matches
B. ByeRB · #5Shot on target from outside the box
DataPitch 4%
shoots from range 0.3 times a game across 6 logged matches
O. BoudaST · #7Shot on target from outside the box
DataPitch 4%
shoots from range 0.2 times a game across 8 logged matches
R. RobertsLCB · #18Shot on target from outside the box
DataPitch 3%
shoots from range 0.2 times a game across 6 logged matches
J. CaicedoCM · #30Shot on target from outside the box
DataPitch 2%
shoots from range 0.2 times a game across 8 logged matches
A. GunnGK · #1Shot on target from outside the box
DataPitch 1%
no shots from outside the box in the 11 matches we have logged
J. GónzalezRAM · #40Shot on target from outside the box
DataPitch 1%
no shots from outside the box in the 4 matches we have logged
D. RomneyRCB · #4Shot on target from outside the box
DataPitch 1%
no shots from outside the box in the 8 matches we have logged
D. MunieCB · #5Shot on target from outside the box
DataPitch 1%
no shots from outside the box in the 8 matches we have logged
J. ForyLB · #27Shot on target from outside the box
DataPitch 1%
shoots from range 0.1 times a game across 10 logged matches
J. PantemisGK · #41Shot on target from outside the box
DataPitch 1%
no shots from outside the box in the 11 matches we have logged
K. MillerLCB · #4Shot on target from outside the box
DataPitch 1%
no shots from outside the box in the 11 matches we have logged
F. SurmanRCB · #20Shot on target from outside the box
DataPitch 1%
shoots from range 0.0 times a game across 14 logged matches
Tap any player for his numbers
Expected XI. Attack at the top, keeper at the bottom.
Match level, never per player. Work down the steps, set the match up the way you see it, then Simulate re-prices every row above in your browser.
How strict you think Lorenzo Hernandez will be tonight
Our card model already has his record in it. This is your view on top of ours. Touches: cards, fouls and fouls drawn.
Who has the ball and who is chasing it
The side chasing shoots more and gets fouled more; the side in front tackles more. Touches: every market.
Pick the battles you are watching: an attacker and the defender on him
A battle is one attacker against the defender marking him. Add the duels you expect to shape the game and Simulate works them into both men's numbers. None picked yet, and none is fine.
We apply our matchup pivot to each pair and show you every row it moves. Two battles never stack on one player: the pivot has a ceiling and one battle already takes him there. Touches: fouls, fouls drawn and cards for those players.
We lean on the market where it is sharp
Off means our own numbers stand alone: the cards line stops setting the level and the goalscorer price stops lifting shots. Touches: cards, shots and shots on target.
This re-prices the rows we already evaluated. It does not re-decide which rows to evaluate or re-run the match itself.
average, 33 matches
League average is 3.98 yellows a match.
Home 2.09/match · Away 2.42/match
4.63/match in tight games · 4.56/match in open ones
Price = the latest market price we hold, labelled by the venue quoting it, never a price of ours. Where we hold more than one book on a row, all of them are behind the row's tap with the best marked. A row's colour is the trade in the numbers on show: green positive, red negative, white neutral. Those numbers are the model replayed with your dials, in your browser, until the chip above swaps in DataPitch's own; either way the percentages, the market's own number and the gap between them live behind the row's tap. A row's last-5 history counts starts of 60+ minutes in the last 365 days, most recent first.