v
The rows below run on your numbers, and colour is the verdict: green a positive trade, red a negative one, white neutral. The chip recolours them from our model instead and opens our read on the match.
Serhiy Boiko runs average on cards, and 1 of the 1 rows we would back are Los Angeles FC's.
166 lines on 6 markets, best first: tap a market to open it, tap a player for his other lines, his numbers and the arithmetic behind the colour.
S. IbeaghaCB · #25Fouls committed
DataPitch 54% · Market 60%
Against this price: Gap -6pp
the price is fair, so there is nothing to back
R. HollingsheadRB · #24Fouls committed
DataPitch 62% · Market 69%
Against this price: Gap -7pp
price too short
R. PorteousRCB · #5Fouls committed
DataPitch 58% · Market 67%
Against this price: Gap -9pp
price too short
M. DelgadoLCM · #8Fouls committed
DataPitch 50% · Market 62%
Against this price: Gap -12pp
the price is fair, so there is nothing to back
N. TafariLCB · #91Fouls committed
DataPitch 46% · Market 58%
Against this price: Gap -12pp
the price is fair, so there is nothing to back
Y. CheberkoLB · #23Fouls committed
DataPitch 53% · Market 71%
Against this price: Gap -18pp
price too short
S. MooreRCB · #18Fouls committed
DataPitch 55% · Market 74%
Against this price: Gap -19pp
price too short
O. UrhoghideLCB · #3Fouls committed
DataPitch 62% · Market 82%
Against this price: Gap -20pp
price too short
P. DelgadoRAM · #8Fouls committed
DataPitch 55% · Market 77%
Against this price: Gap -22pp
price too short
C. CappisLAM · #12Fouls committed
DataPitch 49% · Market 71%
Against this price: Gap -22pp
price too short
KaickLCM · #55Fouls committed
DataPitch 61% · Market 85%
Against this price: Gap -24pp
price too short
J. ValienteRM · #21Fouls committed
DataPitch 34% · Market 65%
Against this price: Gap -31pp
price too short
D. BouangaLW · #99Shots
DataPitch 99% · Market 99%
Against this price: Gap +0pp
we evaluate this market and never bet it
N. TafariLCB · #91Shots
DataPitch 44% · Market 45%
Against this price: Gap -1pp
we evaluate this market and never bet it
P. DelgadoRAM · #8Shots
DataPitch 80% · Market 85%
Against this price: Gap -5pp
we evaluate this market and never bet it
P. MusaST · #9Shots
DataPitch 82% · Market 93%
Against this price: Gap -11pp
we evaluate this market and never bet it
B. KamungoLM · #77Shots
DataPitch 79% · Market 92%
Against this price: Gap -13pp
we evaluate this market and never bet it
Son Heung-MinST · #7Shots
DataPitch 83% · Market 98%
Against this price: Gap -15pp
we evaluate this market and never bet it
O. UrhoghideLCB · #3Shots
DataPitch 36% · Market 55%
Against this price: Gap -19pp
we evaluate this market and never bet it
S. MooreRCB · #18Shots
DataPitch 26% · Market 45%
Against this price: Gap -19pp
we evaluate this market and never bet it
R. PorteousRCB · #5Shots
DataPitch 25% · Market 44%
Against this price: Gap -19pp
we evaluate this market and never bet it
Y. CheberkoLB · #23Shots
DataPitch 16% · Market 38%
Against this price: Gap -22pp
we evaluate this market and never bet it
S. IbeaghaCB · #25Shots
DataPitch 20% · Market 44%
Against this price: Gap -24pp
we evaluate this market and never bet it
KaickLCM · #55Shots
DataPitch 45% · Market 74%
Against this price: Gap -29pp
we evaluate this market and never bet it
T. TillmanRCM · #11Shots
DataPitch 54% · Market 88%
Against this price: Gap -34pp
we evaluate this market and never bet it
M. ChoinièreCM · #66Shots
DataPitch 32% · Market 75%
Against this price: Gap -43pp
we evaluate this market and never bet it
M. DelgadoLCM · #8Shots
DataPitch 13% · Market 56%
Against this price: Gap -43pp
we evaluate this market and never bet it
R. HollingsheadRB · #24Shots
DataPitch 14% · Market 58%
Against this price: Gap -44pp
we evaluate this market and never bet it
RamiroRCM · #17Shots
DataPitch 18% · Market 64%
Against this price: Gap -46pp
we evaluate this market and never bet it
J. ValienteRM · #21Shots
DataPitch 38% · Market 85%
Against this price: Gap -47pp
we evaluate this market and never bet it
J. ShaffelburgRW · #18Shots
DataPitch 38% · Market 88%
Against this price: Gap -50pp
we evaluate this market and never bet it
C. CappisLAM · #12Shots
DataPitch 12% · Market 75%
Against this price: Gap -63pp
we evaluate this market and never bet it
S. IbeaghaCB · #25Shots on target
DataPitch 26% · Market 17%
Against this price: Gap +9pp
we evaluate this market and never bet it
N. TafariLCB · #91Shots on target
DataPitch 24% · Market 15%
Against this price: Gap +9pp
we evaluate this market and never bet it
S. MooreRCB · #18Shots on target
DataPitch 29% · Market 24%
Against this price: Gap +5pp
we evaluate this market and never bet it
R. PorteousRCB · #5Shots on target
DataPitch 13% · Market 17%
Against this price: Gap -4pp
we evaluate this market and never bet it
O. UrhoghideLCB · #3Shots on target
DataPitch 17% · Market 23%
Against this price: Gap -6pp
we evaluate this market and never bet it
D. BouangaLW · #99Shots on target
DataPitch 84% · Market 92%
Against this price: Gap -8pp
we evaluate this market and never bet it
M. DelgadoLCM · #8Shots on target
DataPitch 21% · Market 29%
Against this price: Gap -8pp
we evaluate this market and never bet it
RamiroRCM · #17Shots on target
DataPitch 22% · Market 31%
Against this price: Gap -9pp
we evaluate this market and never bet it
R. HollingsheadRB · #24Shots on target
DataPitch 16% · Market 25%
Against this price: Gap -9pp
we evaluate this market and never bet it
Y. CheberkoLB · #23Shots on target
DataPitch 0% · Market 11%
Against this price: Gap -11pp
we evaluate this market and never bet it
M. ChoinièreCM · #66Shots on target
DataPitch 25% · Market 40%
Against this price: Gap -15pp
we evaluate this market and never bet it
P. DelgadoRAM · #8Shots on target
DataPitch 37% · Market 55%
Against this price: Gap -18pp
we evaluate this market and never bet it
B. KamungoLM · #77Shots on target
DataPitch 41% · Market 62%
Against this price: Gap -21pp
we evaluate this market and never bet it
P. MusaST · #9Shots on target
DataPitch 66% · Market 88%
Against this price: Gap -22pp
we evaluate this market and never bet it
Son Heung-MinST · #7Shots on target
DataPitch 55% · Market 77%
Against this price: Gap -22pp
we evaluate this market and never bet it
J. ShaffelburgRW · #18Shots on target
DataPitch 31% · Market 55%
Against this price: Gap -24pp
we evaluate this market and never bet it
J. ValienteRM · #21Shots on target
DataPitch 27% · Market 52%
Against this price: Gap -25pp
we evaluate this market and never bet it
C. CappisLAM · #12Shots on target
DataPitch 6% · Market 31%
Against this price: Gap -25pp
we evaluate this market and never bet it
T. TillmanRCM · #11Shots on target
DataPitch 16% · Market 48%
Against this price: Gap -32pp
we evaluate this market and never bet it
The books expect about 4 cards.
D. BouangaLW · #99To be booked
DataPitch 25% · Market 15%
Against this price: Gap +10pp
a calibrated probability, graded against what happened
R. HollingsheadRB · #24To be booked
DataPitch 20% · Market 17%
Against this price: Gap +3pp
the price is fair, so there is nothing to back
O. UrhoghideLCB · #3To be booked
DataPitch 30% · Market 29%
Against this price: Gap +1pp
the price is fair, so there is nothing to back
R. PorteousRCB · #5To be booked
DataPitch 29% · Market 28%
Against this price: Gap +1pp
the price is fair, so there is nothing to back
T. TillmanRCM · #11To be booked
DataPitch 22% · Market 21%
Against this price: Gap +1pp
the price is fair, so there is nothing to back
P. MusaST · #9To be booked
DataPitch 23% · Market 25%
Against this price: Gap -2pp
the price is fair, so there is nothing to back
P. DelgadoRAM · #8To be booked
DataPitch 21% · Market 23%
Against this price: Gap -2pp
the price is fair, so there is nothing to back
S. IbeaghaCB · #25To be booked
DataPitch 18% · Market 20%
Against this price: Gap -2pp
the price is fair, so there is nothing to back
Son Heung-MinST · #7To be booked
DataPitch 8% · Market 10%
Against this price: Gap -2pp
the price is fair, so there is nothing to back
S. MooreRCB · #18To be booked
DataPitch 15% · Market 20%
Against this price: Gap -5pp
the price is fair, so there is nothing to back
B. KamungoLM · #77To be booked
DataPitch 10% · Market 15%
Against this price: Gap -5pp
the price is fair, so there is nothing to back
J. ShaffelburgRW · #18To be booked
DataPitch 8% · Market 13%
Against this price: Gap -5pp
the price is fair, so there is nothing to back
RamiroRCM · #17To be booked
DataPitch 29% · Market 36%
Against this price: Gap -7pp
the price is fair, so there is nothing to back
M. DelgadoLCM · #8To be booked
DataPitch 18% · Market 25%
Against this price: Gap -7pp
the price is fair, so there is nothing to back
N. TafariLCB · #91To be booked
DataPitch 14% · Market 21%
Against this price: Gap -7pp
the price is fair, so there is nothing to back
C. CappisLAM · #12To be booked
DataPitch 17% · Market 25%
Against this price: Gap -8pp
the price is fair, so there is nothing to back
M. ChoinièreCM · #66To be booked
DataPitch 18% · Market 28%
Against this price: Gap -10pp
the price is fair, so there is nothing to back
H. LlorisGK · #1To be booked
DataPitch 0% · Market 10%
Against this price: Gap -10pp
the price is fair, so there is nothing to back
Y. CheberkoLB · #23To be booked
DataPitch 15% · Market 27%
Against this price: Gap -12pp
the price is fair, so there is nothing to back
KaickLCM · #55To be booked
DataPitch 23%
no price
DanielGK · #42To be booked
DataPitch 0%
no price
N. TafariLCB · #91Headed shot on target
DataPitch 25%
wins headers against a smaller marker (193cm over a 185cm back line); no corner line priced for his side yet
P. MusaST · #9Headed shot on target
DataPitch 21%
wins headers against a smaller marker (190cm over a 186cm back line); no corner line priced for his side yet
R. PorteousRCB · #5Headed shot on target
DataPitch 17%
wins headers against a smaller marker (188cm over a 185cm back line); no corner line priced for his side yet
R. HollingsheadRB · #24Headed shot on target
DataPitch 17%
wins headers against a smaller marker (188cm over a 185cm back line); no corner line priced for his side yet
S. IbeaghaCB · #25Headed shot on target
DataPitch 16%
level in the air (188cm against a 186cm back line); no corner line priced for his side yet
O. UrhoghideLCB · #3Headed shot on target
DataPitch 16%
level in the air (188cm against a 186cm back line); no corner line priced for his side yet
Son Heung-MinST · #7Headed shot on target
DataPitch 12%
level in the air (184cm against a 185cm back line); no corner line priced for his side yet
H. LlorisGK · #1Headed shot on target
DataPitch 9%
wins headers against a smaller marker (188cm over a 185cm back line); no corner line priced for his side yet
DanielGK · #42Headed shot on target
DataPitch 8%
level in the air (188cm against a 186cm back line); no corner line priced for his side yet
C. CappisLAM · #12Headed shot on target
DataPitch 6%
level in the air (185cm against a 186cm back line); no corner line priced for his side yet
S. MooreRCB · #18Headed shot on target
DataPitch 6%
gives up height in the air (180cm against a 186cm back line); no corner line priced for his side yet
T. TillmanRCM · #11Headed shot on target
DataPitch 5%
gives up height in the air (183cm against a 185cm back line); no corner line priced for his side yet
D. BouangaLW · #99Headed shot on target
DataPitch 5%
gives up height in the air (175cm against a 185cm back line); no corner line priced for his side yet
J. ShaffelburgRW · #18Headed shot on target
DataPitch 5%
gives up height in the air (177cm against a 185cm back line); no corner line priced for his side yet
Y. CheberkoLB · #23Headed shot on target
DataPitch 4%
gives up height in the air (177cm against a 185cm back line); no corner line priced for his side yet
P. DelgadoRAM · #8Headed shot on target
DataPitch 3%
gives up height in the air (180cm against a 186cm back line); no corner line priced for his side yet
RamiroRCM · #17Headed shot on target
DataPitch 2%
gives up height in the air (168cm against a 186cm back line); no corner line priced for his side yet
M. ChoinièreCM · #66Headed shot on target
DataPitch 2%
gives up height in the air (175cm against a 185cm back line); no corner line priced for his side yet
M. DelgadoLCM · #8Headed shot on target
DataPitch 2%
gives up height in the air (176cm against a 185cm back line); no corner line priced for his side yet
J. ValienteRM · #21Headed shot on target
DataPitch 2%
gives up height in the air (165cm against a 186cm back line); no corner line priced for his side yet
B. KamungoLM · #77Headed shot on target
DataPitch 2%
gives up height in the air (175cm against a 186cm back line); no corner line priced for his side yet
KaickLCM · #55Headed shot on target
DataPitch 2%
gives up height in the air (175cm against a 186cm back line); no corner line priced for his side yet
Son Heung-MinST · #7Shot on target from outside the box
DataPitch 22%
shoots from range 1.0 times a game across 13 logged matches
P. MusaST · #9Shot on target from outside the box
DataPitch 16%
shoots from range 0.6 times a game across 13 logged matches
B. KamungoLM · #77Shot on target from outside the box
DataPitch 14%
shoots from range 0.5 times a game across 10 logged matches
P. DelgadoRAM · #8Shot on target from outside the box
DataPitch 14%
shoots from range 0.5 times a game across 7 logged matches
KaickLCM · #55Shot on target from outside the box
DataPitch 8%
shoots from range 0.3 times a game across 10 logged matches
D. BouangaLW · #99Shot on target from outside the box
DataPitch 7%
shoots from range 0.3 times a game across 10 logged matches
M. ChoinièreCM · #66Shot on target from outside the box
DataPitch 7%
shoots from range 0.3 times a game across 15 logged matches
J. ShaffelburgRW · #18Shot on target from outside the box
DataPitch 5%
shoots from range 0.2 times a game across 14 logged matches
RamiroRCM · #17Shot on target from outside the box
DataPitch 4%
shoots from range 0.1 times a game across 7 logged matches
N. TafariLCB · #91Shot on target from outside the box
DataPitch 3%
shoots from range 0.1 times a game across 10 logged matches
R. PorteousRCB · #5Shot on target from outside the box
DataPitch 3%
shoots from range 0.1 times a game across 7 logged matches
J. ValienteRM · #21Shot on target from outside the box
DataPitch 3%
shoots from range 0.1 times a game across 10 logged matches
O. UrhoghideLCB · #3Shot on target from outside the box
DataPitch 3%
shoots from range 0.1 times a game across 9 logged matches
M. DelgadoLCM · #8Shot on target from outside the box
DataPitch 3%
shoots from range 0.1 times a game across 9 logged matches
DanielGK · #42Shot on target from outside the box
DataPitch 2%
no shots from outside the box in the 4 matches we have logged
C. CappisLAM · #12Shot on target from outside the box
DataPitch 2%
shoots from range 0.1 times a game across 10 logged matches
S. IbeaghaCB · #25Shot on target from outside the box
DataPitch 2%
no shots from outside the box in the 10 matches we have logged
S. MooreRCB · #18Shot on target from outside the box
DataPitch 2%
no shots from outside the box in the 10 matches we have logged
H. LlorisGK · #1Shot on target from outside the box
DataPitch 1%
no shots from outside the box in the 10 matches we have logged
T. TillmanRCM · #11Shot on target from outside the box
DataPitch 1%
no shots from outside the box in the 3 matches we have logged
R. HollingsheadRB · #24Shot on target from outside the box
DataPitch 1%
shoots from range 0.0 times a game across 10 logged matches
Y. CheberkoLB · #23Shot on target from outside the box
DataPitch 1%
shoots from range 0.1 times a game across 10 logged matches
Tap any player for his numbers
Expected XI. Attack at the top, keeper at the bottom.
Match level, never per player. Work down the steps, set the match up the way you see it, then Simulate re-prices every row above in your browser.
How strict you think Serhiy Boiko will be tonight
Our card model already has his record in it. This is your view on top of ours. Touches: cards, fouls and fouls drawn.
Who has the ball and who is chasing it
The side chasing shoots more and gets fouled more; the side in front tackles more. Touches: every market.
Pick the battles you are watching: an attacker and the defender on him
A battle is one attacker against the defender marking him. Add the duels you expect to shape the game and Simulate works them into both men's numbers. None picked yet, and none is fine.
We apply our matchup pivot to each pair and show you every row it moves. Two battles never stack on one player: the pivot has a ceiling and one battle already takes him there. Touches: fouls, fouls drawn and cards for those players.
We lean on the market where it is sharp
Off means our own numbers stand alone: the cards line stops setting the level and the goalscorer price stops lifting shots. Touches: cards, shots and shots on target.
This re-prices the rows we already evaluated. It does not re-decide which rows to evaluate or re-run the match itself.
average, 50 matches
League average is 3.98 yellows a match.
Home 2.24/match · Away 1.84/match
4.58/match in tight games · 3.69/match in open ones
Price = the latest market price we hold, labelled by the venue quoting it, never a price of ours. Where we hold more than one book on a row, all of them are behind the row's tap with the best marked. A row's colour is the trade in the numbers on show: green positive, red negative, white neutral. Those numbers are the model replayed with your dials, in your browser, until the chip above swaps in DataPitch's own; either way the percentages, the market's own number and the gap between them live behind the row's tap. A row's last-5 history counts starts of 60+ minutes in the last 365 days, most recent first.