v
The rows below run on your numbers, and colour is the verdict: green a positive trade, red a negative one, white neutral. The chip recolours them from our model instead and opens our read on the match.
Armando Villarreal runs average on cards, and the 2 rows we would back lean evenly between the two sides.
164 lines on 6 markets, best first: tap a market to open it, tap a player for his other lines, his numbers and the arithmetic behind the colour.
João KlaussRM · #99Fouls committed
DataPitch 60% · Market 71%
Against this price: Gap -11pp
price too short
J. GlesnesRCB · #5Fouls committed
DataPitch 62% · Market 74%
Against this price: Gap -12pp
price too short
R. HoldingRCB · #6Fouls committed
DataPitch 57% · Market 71%
Against this price: Gap -14pp
price too short
J. AudeLB · #3Fouls committed
DataPitch 64% · Market 80%
Against this price: Gap -16pp
price too short
P. AaronsonLW · #10Fouls committed
DataPitch 64% · Market 80%
Against this price: Gap -16pp
price too short
E. ThommyCAM · #27Fouls committed
DataPitch 52% · Market 69%
Against this price: Gap -17pp
price too short
J. HaakLCB · #15Fouls committed
DataPitch 64% · Market 83%
Against this price: Gap -19pp
price too short
M. NavarroLB · #29Fouls committed
DataPitch 64% · Market 83%
Against this price: Gap -19pp
price too short
R. CannonRB · #4Fouls committed
DataPitch 65% · Market 85%
Against this price: Gap -20pp
price too short
Loïc WilliamsLCB · #5Fouls committed
DataPitch 62% · Market 82%
Against this price: Gap -20pp
price too short
J. PaintsilLM · #28Fouls committed
DataPitch 59% · Market 82%
Against this price: Gap -23pp
price too short
H. OjediranCM · #8Fouls committed
DataPitch 67% · Market 91%
Against this price: Gap -24pp
price too short
J. AtencioRCM · #12Fouls committed
DataPitch 64% · Market 88%
Against this price: Gap -24pp
price too short
D. YapiST · #77Fouls committed
DataPitch 64% · Market 91%
Against this price: Gap -27pp
price too short
K. FuruhashiST · #7Fouls committed
DataPitch 47% · Market 74%
Against this price: Gap -27pp
price too short
J. PaintsilLM · #28Shots
DataPitch 98% · Market 96%
Against this price: Gap +2pp
we evaluate this market and never bet it
João KlaussRM · #99Shots
DataPitch 97% · Market 97%
Against this price: Gap +0pp
we evaluate this market and never bet it
Loïc WilliamsLCB · #5Shots
DataPitch 30% · Market 38%
Against this price: Gap -8pp
we evaluate this market and never bet it
K. FuruhashiST · #7Shots
DataPitch 86% · Market 95%
Against this price: Gap -9pp
we evaluate this market and never bet it
D. YapiST · #77Shots
DataPitch 84% · Market 94%
Against this price: Gap -10pp
we evaluate this market and never bet it
E. ThommyCAM · #27Shots
DataPitch 78% · Market 91%
Against this price: Gap -13pp
we evaluate this market and never bet it
P. AaronsonLW · #10Shots
DataPitch 79% · Market 94%
Against this price: Gap -15pp
we evaluate this market and never bet it
R. HoldingRCB · #6Shots
DataPitch 28% · Market 44%
Against this price: Gap -16pp
we evaluate this market and never bet it
G. MinoungouRW · #93Shots
DataPitch 71% · Market 93%
Against this price: Gap -22pp
we evaluate this market and never bet it
M. NavarroLB · #29Shots
DataPitch 24% · Market 48%
Against this price: Gap -24pp
we evaluate this market and never bet it
R. CannonRB · #4Shots
DataPitch 19% · Market 44%
Against this price: Gap -25pp
we evaluate this market and never bet it
H. OjediranCM · #8Shots
DataPitch 52% · Market 78%
Against this price: Gap -26pp
we evaluate this market and never bet it
J. GlesnesRCB · #5Shots
DataPitch 29% · Market 62%
Against this price: Gap -33pp
we evaluate this market and never bet it
J. AudeLB · #3Shots
DataPitch 10% · Market 44%
Against this price: Gap -34pp
we evaluate this market and never bet it
Harbor MillerLDM · #26Shots
DataPitch 53% · Market 90%
Against this price: Gap -37pp
we evaluate this market and never bet it
J. HaakLCB · #15Shots
DataPitch 25% · Market 62%
Against this price: Gap -37pp
we evaluate this market and never bet it
E. WynderRDM · #22Shots
DataPitch 36% · Market 88%
Against this price: Gap -52pp
we evaluate this market and never bet it
J. AtencioRCM · #12Shots
DataPitch 11% · Market 65%
Against this price: Gap -54pp
we evaluate this market and never bet it
R. CannonRB · #4Shots on target
DataPitch 24% · Market 17%
Against this price: Gap +7pp
we evaluate this market and never bet it
Loïc WilliamsLCB · #5Shots on target
DataPitch 18% · Market 17%
Against this price: Gap +1pp
we evaluate this market and never bet it
R. HoldingRCB · #6Shots on target
DataPitch 15% · Market 17%
Against this price: Gap -2pp
we evaluate this market and never bet it
J. GlesnesRCB · #5Shots on target
DataPitch 14% · Market 18%
Against this price: Gap -4pp
we evaluate this market and never bet it
H. OjediranCM · #8Shots on target
DataPitch 29% · Market 35%
Against this price: Gap -6pp
we evaluate this market and never bet it
M. NavarroLB · #29Shots on target
DataPitch 12% · Market 18%
Against this price: Gap -6pp
we evaluate this market and never bet it
J. HaakLCB · #15Shots on target
DataPitch 18% · Market 29%
Against this price: Gap -11pp
we evaluate this market and never bet it
E. ThommyCAM · #27Shots on target
DataPitch 37% · Market 50%
Against this price: Gap -13pp
we evaluate this market and never bet it
J. AudeLB · #3Shots on target
DataPitch 0% · Market 15%
Against this price: Gap -15pp
we evaluate this market and never bet it
J. AtencioRCM · #12Shots on target
DataPitch 15% · Market 31%
Against this price: Gap -16pp
we evaluate this market and never bet it
João KlaussRM · #99Shots on target
DataPitch 55% · Market 75%
Against this price: Gap -20pp
we evaluate this market and never bet it
J. PaintsilLM · #28Shots on target
DataPitch 54% · Market 77%
Against this price: Gap -23pp
we evaluate this market and never bet it
G. MinoungouRW · #93Shots on target
DataPitch 41% · Market 64%
Against this price: Gap -23pp
we evaluate this market and never bet it
P. AaronsonLW · #10Shots on target
DataPitch 40% · Market 64%
Against this price: Gap -24pp
we evaluate this market and never bet it
Harbor MillerLDM · #26Shots on target
DataPitch 30% · Market 55%
Against this price: Gap -25pp
we evaluate this market and never bet it
E. WynderRDM · #22Shots on target
DataPitch 26% · Market 55%
Against this price: Gap -29pp
we evaluate this market and never bet it
K. FuruhashiST · #7Shots on target
DataPitch 44% · Market 78%
Against this price: Gap -34pp
we evaluate this market and never bet it
D. YapiST · #77Shots on target
DataPitch 29% · Market 67%
Against this price: Gap -38pp
we evaluate this market and never bet it
The books expect about 4.5 cards.
H. OjediranCM · #8To be booked
DataPitch 38% · Market 32%
Against this price: Gap +6pp
a calibrated probability, graded against what happened
J. GlesnesRCB · #5To be booked
DataPitch 23% · Market 18%
Against this price: Gap +5pp
the price is fair, so there is nothing to back
J. AtencioRCM · #12To be booked
DataPitch 26% · Market 25%
Against this price: Gap +1pp
the price is fair, so there is nothing to back
E. ThommyCAM · #27To be booked
DataPitch 17% · Market 17%
Against this price: Gap +0pp
the price is fair, so there is nothing to back
R. CannonRB · #4To be booked
DataPitch 30% · Market 32%
Against this price: Gap -2pp
the price is fair, so there is nothing to back
M. NavarroLB · #29To be booked
DataPitch 28% · Market 32%
Against this price: Gap -4pp
the price is fair, so there is nothing to back
J. HaakLCB · #15To be booked
DataPitch 23% · Market 28%
Against this price: Gap -5pp
the price is fair, so there is nothing to back
J. PaintsilLM · #28To be booked
DataPitch 20% · Market 25%
Against this price: Gap -5pp
the price is fair, so there is nothing to back
K. FuruhashiST · #7To be booked
DataPitch 7% · Market 12%
Against this price: Gap -5pp
the price is fair, so there is nothing to back
CalegariRB · #2To be booked
DataPitch 11% · Market 18%
Against this price: Gap -7pp
the price is fair, so there is nothing to back
João KlaussRM · #99To be booked
DataPitch 11% · Market 18%
Against this price: Gap -7pp
the price is fair, so there is nothing to back
J. AudeLB · #3To be booked
DataPitch 20% · Market 29%
Against this price: Gap -9pp
the price is fair, so there is nothing to back
R. HoldingRCB · #6To be booked
DataPitch 15% · Market 25%
Against this price: Gap -10pp
the price is fair, so there is nothing to back
E. WynderRDM · #22To be booked
DataPitch 14% · Market 25%
Against this price: Gap -11pp
the price is fair, so there is nothing to back
Harbor MillerLDM · #26To be booked
DataPitch 13% · Market 25%
Against this price: Gap -12pp
the price is fair, so there is nothing to back
J. MarcinkowskiGK · #12To be booked
DataPitch 0% · Market 12%
Against this price: Gap -12pp
the price is fair, so there is nothing to back
P. AaronsonLW · #10To be booked
DataPitch 23% · Market 36%
Against this price: Gap -13pp
the price is fair, so there is nothing to back
Loïc WilliamsLCB · #5To be booked
DataPitch 30% · Market 48%
Against this price: Gap -18pp
the price is fair, so there is nothing to back
D. YapiST · #77To be booked
DataPitch 17% · Market 36%
Against this price: Gap -19pp
the price is fair, so there is nothing to back
W. Frederick IILCM · #13To be booked
DataPitch 13% · Market 36%
Against this price: Gap -23pp
the price is fair, so there is nothing to back
João KlaussRM · #99Headed shot on target
DataPitch 23%
wins headers against a smaller marker (190cm over a 183cm back line); no corner line priced for his side yet
R. HoldingRCB · #6Headed shot on target
DataPitch 21%
wins headers against a smaller marker (189cm over a 181cm back line); no corner line priced for his side yet
Loïc WilliamsLCB · #5Headed shot on target
DataPitch 19%
wins headers against a smaller marker (188cm over a 181cm back line); no corner line priced for his side yet
J. GlesnesRCB · #5Headed shot on target
DataPitch 18%
wins headers against a smaller marker (188cm over a 183cm back line); no corner line priced for his side yet
D. YapiST · #77Headed shot on target
DataPitch 15%
wins headers against a smaller marker (185cm over a 181cm back line); no corner line priced for his side yet
N. DefreitasGK · #41Headed shot on target
DataPitch 11%
wins headers against a smaller marker (189cm over a 181cm back line); no corner line priced for his side yet
J. HaakLCB · #15Headed shot on target
DataPitch 11%
level in the air (183cm against a 183cm back line); no corner line priced for his side yet
J. AudeLB · #3Headed shot on target
DataPitch 11%
level in the air (183cm against a 183cm back line); no corner line priced for his side yet
E. WynderRDM · #22Headed shot on target
DataPitch 9%
wins headers against a smaller marker (188cm over a 183cm back line); no corner line priced for his side yet
R. CannonRB · #4Headed shot on target
DataPitch 9%
level in the air (181cm against a 181cm back line); no corner line priced for his side yet
J. AtencioRCM · #12Headed shot on target
DataPitch 7%
wins headers against a smaller marker (185cm over a 181cm back line); no corner line priced for his side yet
J. MarcinkowskiGK · #12Headed shot on target
DataPitch 7%
level in the air (185cm against a 183cm back line); no corner line priced for his side yet
W. Frederick IILCM · #13Headed shot on target
DataPitch 6%
wins headers against a smaller marker (183cm over a 181cm back line); no corner line priced for his side yet
G. MinoungouRW · #93Headed shot on target
DataPitch 6%
gives up height in the air (178cm against a 181cm back line); no corner line priced for his side yet
P. AaronsonLW · #10Headed shot on target
DataPitch 5%
gives up height in the air (175cm against a 181cm back line); no corner line priced for his side yet
K. FuruhashiST · #7Headed shot on target
DataPitch 5%
gives up height in the air (170cm against a 183cm back line); no corner line priced for his side yet
M. NavarroLB · #29Headed shot on target
DataPitch 5%
gives up height in the air (175cm against a 181cm back line); no corner line priced for his side yet
CalegariRB · #2Headed shot on target
DataPitch 4%
gives up height in the air (170cm against a 183cm back line); no corner line priced for his side yet
J. PaintsilLM · #28Headed shot on target
DataPitch 2%
gives up height in the air (169cm against a 183cm back line); no corner line priced for his side yet
E. ThommyCAM · #27Headed shot on target
DataPitch 2%
gives up height in the air (175cm against a 183cm back line); no corner line priced for his side yet
João KlaussRM · #99Shot on target from outside the box
DataPitch 20%
shoots from range 1.0 times a game across 1 logged match
P. AaronsonLW · #10Shot on target from outside the box
DataPitch 15%
shoots from range 0.8 times a game across 9 logged matches
G. MinoungouRW · #93Shot on target from outside the box
DataPitch 11%
shoots from range 0.6 times a game across 9 logged matches
CalegariRB · #2Shot on target from outside the box
DataPitch 6%
shoots from range 0.4 times a game across 3 logged matches
H. OjediranCM · #8Shot on target from outside the box
DataPitch 6%
shoots from range 0.3 times a game across 8 logged matches
J. PaintsilLM · #28Shot on target from outside the box
DataPitch 6%
shoots from range 0.3 times a game across 7 logged matches
K. FuruhashiST · #7Shot on target from outside the box
DataPitch 6%
shoots from range 0.3 times a game across 7 logged matches
D. YapiST · #77Shot on target from outside the box
DataPitch 5%
shoots from range 0.3 times a game across 9 logged matches
J. AtencioRCM · #12Shot on target from outside the box
DataPitch 5%
shoots from range 0.3 times a game across 8 logged matches
Harbor MillerLDM · #26Shot on target from outside the box
DataPitch 4%
shoots from range 0.2 times a game across 10 logged matches
J. GlesnesRCB · #5Shot on target from outside the box
DataPitch 4%
shoots from range 0.2 times a game across 9 logged matches
R. HoldingRCB · #6Shot on target from outside the box
DataPitch 3%
shoots from range 0.1 times a game across 8 logged matches
E. ThommyCAM · #27Shot on target from outside the box
DataPitch 2%
shoots from range 0.1 times a game across 7 logged matches
J. HaakLCB · #15Shot on target from outside the box
DataPitch 1%
shoots from range 0.1 times a game across 10 logged matches
R. CannonRB · #4Shot on target from outside the box
DataPitch 1%
no shots from outside the box in the 8 matches we have logged
M. NavarroLB · #29Shot on target from outside the box
DataPitch 1%
shoots from range 0.0 times a game across 8 logged matches
N. DefreitasGK · #41Shot on target from outside the box
DataPitch 1%
no shots from outside the box in the 7 matches we have logged
Loïc WilliamsLCB · #5Shot on target from outside the box
DataPitch 1%
shoots from range 0.1 times a game across 9 logged matches
W. Frederick IILCM · #13Shot on target from outside the box
DataPitch 1%
no shots from outside the box in the 8 matches we have logged
J. MarcinkowskiGK · #12Shot on target from outside the box
DataPitch 1%
no shots from outside the box in the 9 matches we have logged
E. WynderRDM · #22Shot on target from outside the box
DataPitch 1%
no shots from outside the box in the 4 matches we have logged
J. AudeLB · #3Shot on target from outside the box
DataPitch 1%
no shots from outside the box in the 10 matches we have logged
Tap any player for his numbers
Expected XI. Attack at the top, keeper at the bottom.
Match level, never per player. Work down the steps, set the match up the way you see it, then Simulate re-prices every row above in your browser.
How strict you think Armando Villarreal will be tonight
Our card model already has his record in it. This is your view on top of ours. Touches: cards, fouls and fouls drawn.
Who has the ball and who is chasing it
The side chasing shoots more and gets fouled more; the side in front tackles more. Touches: every market.
Pick the battles you are watching: an attacker and the defender on him
A battle is one attacker against the defender marking him. Add the duels you expect to shape the game and Simulate works them into both men's numbers. None picked yet, and none is fine.
We apply our matchup pivot to each pair and show you every row it moves. Two battles never stack on one player: the pivot has a ceiling and one battle already takes him there. Touches: fouls, fouls drawn and cards for those players.
We lean on the market where it is sharp
Off means our own numbers stand alone: the cards line stops setting the level and the goalscorer price stops lifting shots. Touches: cards, shots and shots on target.
This re-prices the rows we already evaluated. It does not re-decide which rows to evaluate or re-run the match itself.
average, 128 matches
League average is 3.98 yellows a match.
Home 2.05/match · Away 2.33/match
4.44/match in tight games · 4.61/match in open ones
Price = the latest market price we hold, labelled by the venue quoting it, never a price of ours. Where we hold more than one book on a row, all of them are behind the row's tap with the best marked. A row's colour is the trade in the numbers on show: green positive, red negative, white neutral. Those numbers are the model replayed with your dials, in your browser, until the chip above swaps in DataPitch's own; either way the percentages, the market's own number and the gap between them live behind the row's tap. A row's last-5 history counts starts of 60+ minutes in the last 365 days, most recent first.