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Los Angeles Rams at Washington Commanders

Week 9 · Sun Nov 8, 1:00 PM ET · Market line WAS +4.5 · total 48.5

How our calls did

Final: Los Angeles Rams 20, Washington Commanders 13

Called before kickoff: 5. Won 4, lost 1.

Each called row carries the same stamp in its market below. The green or red down a row's side is still our read against the price before kickoff, not how it ended. Prices taken Sun 8 Nov, 12:32 UK.

Every market we price

27 rows on 4 markets, best first: tap a market to open it, tap a player for his numbers, the price behind his and what our read rests on.

Receiving yards29
Puka Nacua WR · LA 93+ receiving yardsWon150 yds-115price shown when this board was published

Puka NacuaWR · LAReceiving yards

How it ended: Won, 150 yds. Called before kickoff, so it is in this game's count.

DataPitch 89% · Market 54%

Against this price: Gap +35pp

Under 92.5: -111price shown when this board was published

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receiving yards
average 169.7, median 163
The line
92.5

His last 5, receiving yards

150v WAS2026 week 9
80v LAC2026 week 8
68v LV2026 week 7
80v ARI2026 week 6
138v BUF2026 week 5
Austin Ekeler RB · WAS 7+ receiving yardsWon18 yds-113price shown when this board was published

Austin EkelerRB · WASReceiving yards

How it ended: Won, 18 yds. Called before kickoff, so it is in this game's count.

DataPitch 69% · Market 53%

Against this price: Gap +16pp

Under 6.5: -113price shown when this board was published

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receiving yards
average 17.4, median 13
The line
6.5

His last 5, receiving yards

18v LA2026 week 9
0v PHI2026 week 8
4v SF2026 week 6
15v NYG2026 week 5
11v IND2026 week 4
More players (7)
Van Jefferson WR · WAS 10+ receiving yards-116price shown when this board was published

Van JeffersonWR · WASReceiving yards

How it ended: Won, 58 yds. Not called before kickoff, so it is not in this game's count.

DataPitch 75% · Market 54%

Against this price: Gap +21pp

Under 9.5: -115price shown when this board was published

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receiving yards
average 32.1, median 26
The line
9.5

His last 5, receiving yards

58v LA2026 week 9
0v PHI2026 week 8
46v NO2025 week 17
24v KC2025 week 16
43v SF2025 week 15
DoubtfulTreylon Burks WR · WAS 50+ receiving yards+1809price shown when this board was published

Treylon BurksWR · WASReceiving yards

How it ended: Void, did not play. Not called before kickoff, so it is not in this game's count.

Doubtful: Questionable: Foot - Limited Practice on Friday. Questionable for Week 8 vs. Philadelphia

DataPitch 11% · Market 5%

Against this price: Gap +6pp

Under 49.5: -132price shown when this board was published

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receiving yards
average 21.8, median 17
The line
49.5

His last 5, receiving yards

81v PHI2026 week 8
66v SF2026 week 6
26v NYG2026 week 5
47v IND2026 week 4
13v SEA2026 week 3
Kyren Williams RB · LA 21+ receiving yards-112price shown when this board was published

Kyren WilliamsRB · LAReceiving yards

How it ended: Lost, 16 yds. Not called before kickoff, so it is not in this game's count.

DataPitch 52% · Market 53%

Against this price: Gap -1pp

Under 20.5: -112price shown when this board was published

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receiving yards
average 26.1, median 21
The line
20.5

His last 5, receiving yards

16v WAS2026 week 9
3v LAC2026 week 8
22v LV2026 week 7
17v ARI2026 week 6
27v BUF2026 week 5
Stefon Diggs WR · WAS 47+ receiving yards-114price shown when this board was published

Stefon DiggsWR · WASReceiving yards

How it ended: Won, 51 yds. Not called before kickoff, so it is not in this game's count.

DataPitch 41% · Market 53%

Against this price: Gap -12pp

Under 46.5: -111price shown when this board was published

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receiving yards
average 45.5, median 40
The line
46.5

His last 5, receiving yards

51v LA2026 week 9
38v PHI2026 week 8
44v SF2026 week 6
35v IND2026 week 4
33v SEA2026 week 3
DoubtfulRachaad White RB · WAS 17+ receiving yards-114price shown when this board was published

Rachaad WhiteRB · WASReceiving yards

How it ended: Won, 41 yds. Not called before kickoff, so it is not in this game's count.

Doubtful: his receptions line fell 3.5 to 2.5 between the open and the close, 29% at consensus: the market is pricing him down

DataPitch 32% · Market 53%

Against this price: Gap -21pp

Under 16.5: -111price shown when this board was published

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receiving yards
average 13.4, median 10
The line
16.5

His last 5, receiving yards

41v LA2026 week 9
5v PHI2026 week 8
30v SF2026 week 6
2v NYG2026 week 5
6v SEA2026 week 3
Chig Okonkwo TE · WAS 36+ receiving yards-111price shown when this board was published

Chig OkonkwoTE · WASReceiving yards

How it ended: Won, 56 yds. Not called before kickoff, so it is not in this game's count.

DataPitch 18% · Market 53%

Against this price: Gap -35pp

Under 35.5: -114price shown when this board was published

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receiving yards
average 19.3, median 14
The line
35.5

His last 5, receiving yards

56v LA2026 week 9
32v PHI2026 week 8
69v SF2026 week 6
60v NYG2026 week 5
5v IND2026 week 4
DoubtfulJohn Bates TE · WAS 3+ receiving yardsno price held

John BatesTE · WASReceiving yards

How it ended: Ungradeable, 0 yds. Not called before kickoff, so it is not in this game's count.

Doubtful: Questionable: Shoulder - Limited Practice on Friday. Questionable for Week 8 vs. Philadelphia

DataPitch 73%

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receiving yards
average 17.1, median 11
The line
2.5

His last 5, receiving yards

0v PHI2026 week 8
4v SF2026 week 6
1v NYG2026 week 5
9v SEA2026 week 3
13v PHI2026 week 1
Receptions29
Puka Nacua WR · LA 9+ receptionsWon14 receptions+105price shown when this board was published

Puka NacuaWR · LAReceptions

How it ended: Won, 14 receptions. Called before kickoff, so it is in this game's count.

DataPitch 77% · Market 49%

Against this price: Gap +28pp

Under 8.5: -135price shown when this board was published

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receptions
average 11.6, median 11
The line
8.5

His last 5, receptions

14v WAS2026 week 9
11v LAC2026 week 8
8v LV2026 week 7
6v ARI2026 week 6
17v BUF2026 week 5
Austin Ekeler RB · WAS 2+ receptionsWon2 receptions+130price shown when this board was published

Austin EkelerRB · WASReceptions

How it ended: Won, 2 receptions. Called before kickoff, so it is in this game's count.

DataPitch 57% · Market 44%

Against this price: Gap +13pp

Under 1.5: -169price shown when this board was published

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receptions
average 2.1, median 2
The line
1.5

His last 5, receptions

2v LA2026 week 9
0v PHI2026 week 8
2v SF2026 week 6
1v NYG2026 week 5
1v IND2026 week 4
More players (7)
Van Jefferson WR · WAS 2+ receptions+177price shown when this board was published

Van JeffersonWR · WASReceptions

How it ended: Won, 5 receptions. Not called before kickoff, so it is not in this game's count.

DataPitch 63% · Market 36%

Against this price: Gap +27pp

Under 1.5: -245price shown when this board was published

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receptions
average 2.3, median 2
The line
1.5

His last 5, receptions

5v LA2026 week 9
0v PHI2026 week 8
3v NO2025 week 17
2v KC2025 week 16
1v SF2025 week 15
DoubtfulJohn Bates TE · WAS 1+ receptions-147price shown when this board was published

John BatesTE · WASReceptions

How it ended: Lost, 0 receptions. Not called before kickoff, so it is not in this game's count.

Doubtful: Questionable: Shoulder - Limited Practice on Friday. Questionable for Week 8 vs. Philadelphia

DataPitch 75% · Market 60%

Against this price: Gap +15pp

Under 0.5: +115price shown when this board was published

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receptions
average 1.7, median 1
The line
0.5

His last 5, receptions

0v PHI2026 week 8
1v SF2026 week 6
1v NYG2026 week 5
1v SEA2026 week 3
2v PHI2026 week 1
Kyren Williams RB · LA 3+ receptions-142price shown when this board was published

Kyren WilliamsRB · LAReceptions

How it ended: Won, 3 receptions. Not called before kickoff, so it is not in this game's count.

DataPitch 54% · Market 59%

Against this price: Gap -5pp

Under 2.5: +112price shown when this board was published

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receptions
average 3.1, median 3
The line
2.5

His last 5, receptions

3v WAS2026 week 9
1v LAC2026 week 8
2v LV2026 week 7
3v ARI2026 week 6
6v BUF2026 week 5
Stefon Diggs WR · WAS 5+ receptions-105price shown when this board was published

Stefon DiggsWR · WASReceptions

How it ended: Lost, 3 receptions. Not called before kickoff, so it is not in this game's count.

DataPitch 29% · Market 51%

Against this price: Gap -22pp

Under 4.5: -122price shown when this board was published

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receptions
average 3.5, median 3
The line
4.5

His last 5, receptions

3v LA2026 week 9
3v PHI2026 week 8
6v SF2026 week 6
5v IND2026 week 4
4v SEA2026 week 3
DoubtfulTreylon Burks WR · WAS 3+ receptions+116price shown when this board was published

Treylon BurksWR · WASReceptions

How it ended: Void, did not play. Not called before kickoff, so it is not in this game's count.

Doubtful: Questionable: Foot - Limited Practice on Friday. Questionable for Week 8 vs. Philadelphia

DataPitch 23% · Market 46%

Against this price: Gap -23pp

Under 2.5: -155price shown when this board was published

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receptions
average 1.6, median 1
The line
2.5

His last 5, receptions

3v PHI2026 week 8
4v SF2026 week 6
2v NYG2026 week 5
1v IND2026 week 4
2v SEA2026 week 3
DoubtfulRachaad White RB · WAS 3+ receptions-123price shown when this board was published

Rachaad WhiteRB · WASReceptions

How it ended: Lost, 2 receptions. Not called before kickoff, so it is not in this game's count.

Doubtful: his receptions line fell 3.5 to 2.5 between the open and the close, 29% at consensus: the market is pricing him down

DataPitch 27% · Market 55%

Against this price: Gap -28pp

Under 2.5: -105price shown when this board was published

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receptions
average 1.8, median 1
The line
2.5

His last 5, receptions

2v LA2026 week 9
2v PHI2026 week 8
4v SF2026 week 6
1v NYG2026 week 5
1v SEA2026 week 3
Chig Okonkwo TE · WAS 4+ receptions-120price shown when this board was published

Chig OkonkwoTE · WASReceptions

How it ended: Won, 6 receptions. Not called before kickoff, so it is not in this game's count.

DataPitch 16% · Market 55%

Against this price: Gap -39pp

Under 3.5: -111price shown when this board was published

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receptions
average 1.9, median 2
The line
3.5

His last 5, receptions

6v LA2026 week 9
2v PHI2026 week 8
7v SF2026 week 6
4v NYG2026 week 5
2v IND2026 week 4
Rushing yards7
Kyren Williams RB · LA 61+ rushing yards-111price shown when this board was published

Kyren WilliamsRB · LARushing yards

How it ended: Lost, 45 yds. Not called before kickoff, so it is not in this game's count.

DataPitch 55% · Market 53%

Against this price: Gap +2pp

Under 60.5: -110price shown when this board was published

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated rushing yards
average 71.5, median 65
The line
60.5

His last 5, rushing yards

45v WAS2026 week 9
56v LAC2026 week 8
99v LV2026 week 7
50v ARI2026 week 6
49v BUF2026 week 5
DoubtfulRachaad White RB · WAS 37+ rushing yards-116price shown when this board was published

Rachaad WhiteRB · WASRushing yards

How it ended: Lost, 28 yds. Not called before kickoff, so it is not in this game's count.

Doubtful: his receptions line fell 3.5 to 2.5 between the open and the close, 29% at consensus: the market is pricing him down

DataPitch 53% · Market 54%

Against this price: Gap -1pp

Under 36.5: -116price shown when this board was published

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated rushing yards
average 44.4, median 38
The line
36.5

His last 5, rushing yards

28v LA2026 week 9
55v PHI2026 week 8
27v SF2026 week 6
18v NYG2026 week 5
35v SEA2026 week 3
More players (5)
Austin Ekeler RB · WAS 25+ rushing yards-114price shown when this board was published

Austin EkelerRB · WASRushing yards

How it ended: Lost, 16 yds. Not called before kickoff, so it is not in this game's count.

DataPitch 51% · Market 53%

Against this price: Gap -2pp

Under 24.5: -111price shown when this board was published

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated rushing yards
average 31.4, median 25
The line
24.5

His last 5, rushing yards

16v LA2026 week 9
36v PHI2026 week 8
3v SF2026 week 6
-1v NYG2026 week 5
29v IND2026 week 4
Blake Corum RB · LA 49+ rushing yards-114price shown when this board was published

Blake CorumRB · LARushing yards

How it ended: Won, 58 yds. Not called before kickoff, so it is not in this game's count.

DataPitch 44% · Market 53%

Against this price: Gap -9pp

Under 48.5: -110price shown when this board was published

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated rushing yards
average 50.8, median 43
The line
48.5

His last 5, rushing yards

58v WAS2026 week 9
73v LAC2026 week 8
93v LV2026 week 7
42v ARI2026 week 6
19v BUF2026 week 5
Jayden Daniels QB · WAS 38+ rushing yards-113price shown when this board was published

Jayden DanielsQB · WASRushing yards

How it ended: Lost, 16 yds. Not called before kickoff, so it is not in this game's count.

DataPitch 29% · Market 53%

Against this price: Gap -24pp

Under 37.5: -108price shown when this board was published

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated rushing yards
average 28.5, median 22
The line
37.5

His last 5, rushing yards

16v LA2026 week 9
23v PHI2026 week 8
10v SF2026 week 6
103v NYG2026 week 5
69v DAL2026 week 2
Matthew Stafford QB · LA 1+ rushing yardsno price held

Matthew StaffordQB · LARushing yards

How it ended: Ungradeable, 1 yds. Not called before kickoff, so it is not in this game's count.

DataPitch 44%

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated rushing yards
average 6, median 0
The line
0.5

His last 5, rushing yards

1v WAS2026 week 9
0v LAC2026 week 8
-3v LV2026 week 7
0v ARI2026 week 6
0v BUF2026 week 5
Puka Nacua WR · LA 1+ rushing yardsno price held

Puka NacuaWR · LARushing yards

How it ended: Ungradeable, 20 yds. Not called before kickoff, so it is not in this game's count.

DataPitch 11%

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated rushing yards
average 1.3, median 0
The line
0.5

His last 5, rushing yards

20v WAS2026 week 9
0v LAC2026 week 8
10v LV2026 week 7
0v ARI2026 week 6
9v BUF2026 week 5
Passing yards12
Matthew Stafford QB · LA 247+ passing yardsLost228 yds-101price shown when this board was published

Matthew StaffordQB · LAPassing yards

How it ended: Lost, 228 yds. Called before kickoff, so it is in this game's count.

DataPitch 66% · Market 50%

Against this price: Gap +16pp

Under 246.5: -114price shown when this board was published

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated passing yards
average 285.3, median 279
The line
246.5

His last 5, passing yards

219v WAS2026 week 9
152v LAC2026 week 8
187v LV2026 week 7
194v ARI2026 week 6
377v BUF2026 week 5
Jayden Daniels QB · WAS 212+ passing yards-112price shown when this board was published

Jayden DanielsQB · WASPassing yards

How it ended: Won, 273 yds. Not called before kickoff, so it is not in this game's count.

DataPitch 29% · Market 53%

Against this price: Gap -24pp

Under 211.5: -106price shown when this board was published

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated passing yards
average 181.4, median 177
The line
211.5

His last 5, passing yards

252v LA2026 week 9
204v PHI2026 week 8
261v SF2026 week 6
178v NYG2026 week 5
96v DAL2026 week 2

Every price is a captured market quote in American odds, labelled as such; our percentage and the gap to the market's sit behind the row's tap. A row's colour is our number against the price: green means we rate the row's own selection well above what the price says, red means the price rates it more than we do, white means the two are close. A row's last five counts his last five games in this market, most recent first, regular season and playoffs.

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