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Jacksonville Jaguars at Baltimore Ravens

Week 9 · Thu Nov 5, 8:15 PM ET · Market line BAL +10 · total 39.5

How our calls did

Final: Jacksonville Jaguars 33, Baltimore Ravens 10

Called before kickoff: 3. Won 2, lost 1.

Each called row carries the same stamp in its market below. The green or red down a row's side is still our read against the price before kickoff, not how it ended. Prices taken Thu 5 Nov, 07:38 UK.

Every market we price

25 rows on 4 markets, best first: tap a market to open it, tap a player for his numbers, the price behind his and what our read rests on.

Receiving yards19
Jakobi Meyers WR · JAX 40+ receiving yardsWon65 yds-116DraftKings

Jakobi MeyersWR · JAXReceiving yards

How it ended: Won, 65 yds. Called before kickoff, so it is in this game's count.

DataPitch 61% · Market 54%

Against this price: Gap +7pp

Under 39.5: -110DraftKings

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer. His other lines below are the same simulated read of his game, cut at the thresholds the market quotes.

Our simulated receiving yards
average 54.1, median 48
The line
39.5

His last 5, receiving yards

24v IND2026 week 8
83v HOU2026 week 6
37v PHI2026 week 5
33v CIN2026 week 4
64v NE2026 week 3

His other lines in this market

10+ receiving yardsDataPitch 92% · Market 91%-1040book price at this line
15+ receiving yardsDataPitch 90% · Market 86%-610book price at this line
20+ receiving yardsDataPitch 84% · Market 80%-391book price at this line
25+ receiving yardsDataPitch 80% · Market 73%-271book price at this line
30+ receiving yardsDataPitch 73% · Market 67%-199book price at this line
50+ receiving yardsDataPitch 49% · Market 41%+145book price at this line
60+ receiving yardsDataPitch 38% · Market 31%+226book price at this line
70+ receiving yardsDataPitch 29% · Market 23%+344book price at this line
80+ receiving yardsDataPitch 22% · Market 16%+525book price at this line
90+ receiving yardsDataPitch 16% · Market 11%+790book price at this line
100+ receiving yardsDataPitch 11% · Market 8%+1180book price at this line
110+ receiving yardsDataPitch 8% · Market 5%+1760book price at this line
120+ receiving yardsDataPitch 6% · Market 4%+2600book price at this line
130+ receiving yardsDataPitch 4% · Market 3%+3700book price at this line
Travis Hunter WR · JAX 10+ receiving yards-111Bet365

Travis HunterWR · JAXReceiving yards

How it ended: Lost, -1 yds. Not called before kickoff, so it is not in this game's count.

DataPitch 82% · Market 53%

Against this price: Gap +29pp

Under 9.5: -120Bet365

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer. His other lines below are the same simulated read of his game, cut at the thresholds the market quotes.

Our simulated receiving yards
average 36.7, median 30
The line
9.5

His last 5, receiving yards

0v IND2026 week 8
59v HOU2026 week 6
9v PHI2026 week 5
0v CIN2026 week 4
0v NE2026 week 3

His other lines in this market

15+ receiving yardsDataPitch 74% · Market 42%+137book price at this line
20+ receiving yardsDataPitch 66% · Market 34%+198book price at this line
25+ receiving yardsDataPitch 58% · Market 27%+273book price at this line
30+ receiving yardsDataPitch 51% · Market 22%+359book price at this line
40+ receiving yardsDataPitch 38% · Market 14%+600book price at this line
50+ receiving yardsDataPitch 28% · Market 9%+1020book price at this line
60+ receiving yardsDataPitch 20% · Market 6%+1640book price at this line
70+ receiving yardsDataPitch 14% · Market 4%+2500book price at this line
80+ receiving yardsDataPitch 10% · Market 3%+3400book price at this line
More players (7)
Brian Thomas Jr. WR · JAX 13+ receiving yards-116Bet365

Brian Thomas Jr.WR · JAXReceiving yards

How it ended: Lost, 0 yds. Not called before kickoff, so it is not in this game's count.

DataPitch 79% · Market 54%

Against this price: Gap +25pp

Under 12.5: -116Bet365

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer. His other lines below are the same simulated read of his game, cut at the thresholds the market quotes.

Our simulated receiving yards
average 39.9, median 33
The line
12.5

His last 5, receiving yards

12v IND2026 week 8
0v HOU2026 week 6
0v PHI2026 week 5
17v CIN2026 week 4
8v NE2026 week 3

His other lines in this market

10+ receiving yardsDataPitch 82% · Market 61%-156book price at this line
14+ receiving yardsDataPitch 78% · Market 53%-112book price at this line
15+ receiving yardsDataPitch 77% · Market 51%-103book price at this line
20+ receiving yardsDataPitch 70% · Market 41%+145book price at this line
25+ receiving yardsDataPitch 63% · Market 33%+206book price at this line
30+ receiving yardsDataPitch 56% · Market 26%+284book price at this line
40+ receiving yardsDataPitch 43% · Market 17%+495book price at this line
50+ receiving yardsDataPitch 32% · Market 11%+820book price at this line
60+ receiving yardsDataPitch 23% · Market 7%+1340book price at this line
70+ receiving yardsDataPitch 17% · Market 5%+2100book price at this line
80+ receiving yardsDataPitch 12% · Market 3%+3200book price at this line
Mark Andrews TE · BAL 19+ receiving yards-112DraftKings

Mark AndrewsTE · BALReceiving yards

How it ended: Won, 19 yds. Not called before kickoff, so it is not in this game's count.

DataPitch 57% · Market 53%

Against this price: Gap +4pp

Under 18.5: -112DraftKings

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer. His other lines below are the same simulated read of his game, cut at the thresholds the market quotes.

Our simulated receiving yards
average 26.3, median 22
The line
18.5

His last 5, receiving yards

14v BUF2026 week 8
23v CIN2026 week 7
4v CLE2026 week 6
28v ATL2026 week 5
27v TEN2026 week 4

His other lines in this market

10+ receiving yardsDataPitch 77% · Market 75%-300book price at this line
15+ receiving yardsDataPitch 66% · Market 63%-168book price at this line
20+ receiving yardsDataPitch 55% · Market 51%-105book price at this line
25+ receiving yardsDataPitch 45% · Market 41%+144book price at this line
30+ receiving yardsDataPitch 36% · Market 32%+211book price at this line
40+ receiving yardsDataPitch 22% · Market 20%+414book price at this line
50+ receiving yardsDataPitch 14% · Market 12%+760book price at this line
60+ receiving yardsDataPitch 8% · Market 7%+1300book price at this line
70+ receiving yardsDataPitch 5% · Market 5%+2000book price at this line
80+ receiving yardsDataPitch 3% · Market 3%+3000book price at this line
Parker Washington WR · JAX 64+ receiving yards-116Bet365

Parker WashingtonWR · JAXReceiving yards

How it ended: Lost, 61 yds. Not called before kickoff, so it is not in this game's count.

DataPitch 57% · Market 54%

Against this price: Gap +3pp

Under 63.5: -116Bet365

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer. His other lines below are the same simulated read of his game, cut at the thresholds the market quotes.

Our simulated receiving yards
average 78.6, median 72
The line
63.5

His last 5, receiving yards

16v IND2026 week 8
64v HOU2026 week 6
124v PHI2026 week 5
7v CIN2026 week 4
40v NE2026 week 3

His other lines in this market

20+ receiving yardsDataPitch 92% · Market 94%-1480book price at this line
25+ receiving yardsDataPitch 90% · Market 91%-950book price at this line
30+ receiving yardsDataPitch 86% · Market 87%-660book price at this line
40+ receiving yardsDataPitch 78% · Market 78%-358book price at this line
50+ receiving yardsDataPitch 70% · Market 68%-215book price at this line
60+ receiving yardsDataPitch 61% · Market 58%-138book price at this line
65+ receiving yardsDataPitch 57% · Market 53%-113book price at this line
70+ receiving yardsDataPitch 52% · Market 48%+108book price at this line
80+ receiving yardsDataPitch 44% · Market 39%+156book price at this line
90+ receiving yardsDataPitch 36% · Market 31%+222book price at this line
100+ receiving yardsDataPitch 29% · Market 24%+316book price at this line
110+ receiving yardsDataPitch 24% · Market 18%+450book price at this line
120+ receiving yardsDataPitch 19% · Market 14%+630book price at this line
130+ receiving yardsDataPitch 14% · Market 10%+870book price at this line
140+ receiving yardsDataPitch 11% · Market 8%+1220book price at this line
150+ receiving yardsDataPitch 8% · Market 6%+1680book price at this line
160+ receiving yardsDataPitch 6% · Market 4%+2300book price at this line
170+ receiving yardsDataPitch 5% · Market 3%+3200book price at this line
180+ receiving yardsDataPitch 3% · Market 2%+4000book price at this line
Zay Flowers WR · BAL 49+ receiving yards-111DraftKings

Zay FlowersWR · BALReceiving yards

How it ended: Lost, 6 yds. Not called before kickoff, so it is not in this game's count.

DataPitch 55% · Market 53%

Against this price: Gap +2pp

Under 48.5: -115DraftKings

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer. His other lines below are the same simulated read of his game, cut at the thresholds the market quotes.

Our simulated receiving yards
average 59, median 53
The line
48.5

His last 5, receiving yards

0v BUF2026 week 8
137v CIN2026 week 7
66v CLE2026 week 6
53v ATL2026 week 5
118v TEN2026 week 4

His other lines in this market

10+ receiving yardsDataPitch 94% · Market 90%-880book price at this line
15+ receiving yardsDataPitch 93% · Market 86%-599book price at this line
20+ receiving yardsDataPitch 87% · Market 81%-427book price at this line
25+ receiving yardsDataPitch 83% · Market 77%-330book price at this line
30+ receiving yardsDataPitch 77% · Market 71%-250book price at this line
40+ receiving yardsDataPitch 66% · Market 61%-159book price at this line
50+ receiving yardsDataPitch 54% · Market 52%-106book price at this line
60+ receiving yardsDataPitch 43% · Market 43%+134book price at this line
70+ receiving yardsDataPitch 33% · Market 35%+189book price at this line
80+ receiving yardsDataPitch 26% · Market 27%+265book price at this line
90+ receiving yardsDataPitch 19% · Market 22%+363book price at this line
100+ receiving yardsDataPitch 14% · Market 17%+501book price at this line
110+ receiving yardsDataPitch 10% · Market 13%+680book price at this line
120+ receiving yardsDataPitch 7% · Market 10%+930book price at this line
130+ receiving yardsDataPitch 5% · Market 8%+1240book price at this line
140+ receiving yardsDataPitch 3% · Market 6%+1640book price at this line
150+ receiving yardsDataPitch 2% · Market 5%+2100book price at this line
160+ receiving yardsDataPitch 1% · Market 3%+2800book price at this line
170+ receiving yardsDataPitch 1% · Market 3%+3500book price at this line
Brenton Strange TE · JAX 36+ receiving yards-113consensus market price

Brenton StrangeTE · JAXReceiving yards

How it ended: Lost, 22 yds. Not called before kickoff, so it is not in this game's count.

DataPitch 51% · Market 53%

Against this price: Gap -2pp

Under 35.5: -111consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer. His other lines below are the same simulated read of his game, cut at the thresholds the market quotes.

Our simulated receiving yards
average 42.3, median 36
The line
35.5

His last 5, receiving yards

55v IND2026 week 8
44v HOU2026 week 6
68v PHI2026 week 5
95v CIN2026 week 4
32v NE2026 week 3

His other lines in this market

10+ receiving yardsDataPitch 87% · Market 94%-1660book price at this line
15+ receiving yardsDataPitch 80% · Market 88%-700book price at this line
20+ receiving yardsDataPitch 73% · Market 79%-386book price at this line
25+ receiving yardsDataPitch 66% · Market 71%-243book price at this line
30+ receiving yardsDataPitch 59% · Market 62%-164book price at this line
35+ receiving yardsDataPitch 52% · Market 54%-115book price at this line
40+ receiving yardsDataPitch 46% · Market 45%+121book price at this line
50+ receiving yardsDataPitch 34% · Market 32%+216book price at this line
60+ receiving yardsDataPitch 25% · Market 21%+380book price at this line
70+ receiving yardsDataPitch 18% · Market 14%+630book price at this line
80+ receiving yardsDataPitch 13% · Market 9%+1060book price at this line
90+ receiving yardsDataPitch 9% · Market 6%+1700book price at this line
100+ receiving yardsDataPitch 6% · Market 4%+2600book price at this line
110+ receiving yardsDataPitch 4% · Market 3%+3600book price at this line
Rashod Bateman WR · BAL 16+ receiving yards-112DraftKings

Rashod BatemanWR · BALReceiving yards

How it ended: Lost, 6 yds. Not called before kickoff, so it is not in this game's count.

DataPitch 49% · Market 53%

Against this price: Gap -4pp

Under 15.5: -112DraftKings

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer. His other lines below are the same simulated read of his game, cut at the thresholds the market quotes.

Our simulated receiving yards
average 19.4, median 15
The line
15.5

His last 5, receiving yards

22v BUF2026 week 8
33v CIN2026 week 7
0v CLE2026 week 6
62v ATL2026 week 5
46v TEN2026 week 4

His other lines in this market

10+ receiving yardsDataPitch 58% · Market 64%-177book price at this line
15+ receiving yardsDataPitch 51% · Market 55%-120book price at this line
20+ receiving yardsDataPitch 40% · Market 46%+120book price at this line
25+ receiving yardsDataPitch 31% · Market 38%+161book price at this line
30+ receiving yardsDataPitch 25% · Market 32%+214book price at this line
40+ receiving yardsDataPitch 14% · Market 22%+352book price at this line
50+ receiving yardsDataPitch 8% · Market 15%+564book price at this line
60+ receiving yardsDataPitch 5% · Market 11%+850book price at this line
70+ receiving yardsDataPitch 3% · Market 7%+1280book price at this line
80+ receiving yardsDataPitch 1% · Market 5%+1900book price at this line
90+ receiving yardsDataPitch 1% · Market 4%+2700book price at this line
100+ receiving yardsDataPitch 0% · Market 3%+3700book price at this line
Derrick Henry RB · BAL 8+ receiving yards-105Bet365

Derrick HenryRB · BALReceiving yards

How it ended: Lost, 0 yds. Not called before kickoff, so it is not in this game's count.

DataPitch 47% · Market 51%

Against this price: Gap -4pp

Under 7.5: -125Bet365

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer. His other lines below are the same simulated read of his game, cut at the thresholds the market quotes.

Our simulated receiving yards
average 10.4, median 7
The line
7.5

His last 5, receiving yards

7v BUF2026 week 8
4v CIN2026 week 7
2v CLE2026 week 6
18v ATL2026 week 5
6v TEN2026 week 4

His other lines in this market

18+ receiving yardsDataPitch 21% · Market 43%+135book price at this line
28+ receiving yardsDataPitch 10% · Market 33%+199book price at this line
38+ receiving yardsDataPitch 5% · Market 25%+300book price at this line
48+ receiving yardsDataPitch 2% · Market 18%+450book price at this line
58+ receiving yardsDataPitch 1% · Market 13%+675book price at this line
68+ receiving yardsDataPitch 0% · Market 8%+1100book price at this line
78+ receiving yardsDataPitch 0% · Market 5%+1750book price at this line
88+ receiving yardsDataPitch 0% · Market 3%+2900book price at this line
Receiving yards at the thresholds this game's players share. Tap a price to put that level in your slip. Green marks a level our read rates; every other price is the market's alone.
Player20+25+30+40+
Jakobi MeyersWR · JAX
Travis HunterWR · JAX
Brian Thomas Jr.WR · JAX
Mark AndrewsTE · BAL
Parker WashingtonWR · JAX
Zay FlowersWR · BAL
Brenton StrangeTE · JAX
Rashod BatemanWR · BAL

Columns are the levels most of this market's players are quoted at. One player's whole ladder sits behind his row in the player list.

Receptions19
Jakobi Meyers WR · JAX 4+ receptionsWon4 receptions+119DraftKings

Jakobi MeyersWR · JAXReceptions

How it ended: Won, 4 receptions. Called before kickoff, so it is in this game's count.

DataPitch 57% · Market 46%

Against this price: Gap +11pp

Under 3.5: -154DraftKings

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer. His other lines below are the same simulated read of his game, cut at the thresholds the market quotes.

Our simulated receptions
average 4.2, median 4
The line
3.5

His last 5, receptions

2v IND2026 week 8
5v HOU2026 week 6
2v PHI2026 week 5
3v CIN2026 week 4
7v NE2026 week 3

His other lines in this market

3+ receptionsDataPitch 73% · Market 69%-222book price at this line
5+ receptionsDataPitch 40% · Market 31%+220book price at this line
6+ receptionsDataPitch 26% · Market 19%+425book price at this line
7+ receptionsDataPitch 16% · Market 11%+850book price at this line
8+ receptionsDataPitch 10% · Market 5%+1750book price at this line
9+ receptionsDataPitch 5% · Market 3%+3700book price at this line
Travis Hunter WR · JAX 2+ receptions+182Bet365

Travis HunterWR · JAXReceptions

How it ended: Lost, 1 reception. Not called before kickoff, so it is not in this game's count.

DataPitch 78% · Market 36%

Against this price: Gap +42pp

Under 1.5: -244Bet365

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer. His other lines below are the same simulated read of his game, cut at the thresholds the market quotes.

Our simulated receptions
average 3.2, median 3
The line
1.5

His last 5, receptions

0v IND2026 week 8
4v HOU2026 week 6
1v PHI2026 week 5
0v CIN2026 week 4
0v NE2026 week 3

His other lines in this market

3+ receptionsDataPitch 58% · Market 31%+220book price at this line
4+ receptionsDataPitch 38% · Market 23%+340book price at this line
5+ receptionsDataPitch 23% · Market 15%+550book price at this line
6+ receptionsDataPitch 13% · Market 10%+875book price at this line
7+ receptionsDataPitch 7% · Market 7%+1450book price at this line
More players (7)
Brian Thomas Jr. WR · JAX 2+ receptions+141DraftKings

Brian Thomas Jr.WR · JAXReceptions

How it ended: Lost, 0 receptions. Not called before kickoff, so it is not in this game's count.

DataPitch 69% · Market 42%

Against this price: Gap +27pp

Under 1.5: -182DraftKings

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer. His other lines below are the same simulated read of his game, cut at the thresholds the market quotes.

Our simulated receptions
average 2.5, median 2
The line
1.5

His last 5, receptions

1v IND2026 week 8
0v HOU2026 week 6
0v PHI2026 week 5
2v CIN2026 week 4
1v NE2026 week 3

His other lines in this market

3+ receptionsDataPitch 46% · Market 26%+280book price at this line
4+ receptionsDataPitch 27% · Market 14%+600book price at this line
5+ receptionsDataPitch 14% · Market 7%+1350book price at this line
6+ receptionsDataPitch 7% · Market 3%+3100book price at this line
Parker Washington WR · JAX 5+ receptions-102DraftKings

Parker WashingtonWR · JAXReceptions

How it ended: Lost, 2 receptions. Not called before kickoff, so it is not in this game's count.

DataPitch 50% · Market 51%

Against this price: Gap -1pp

Under 4.5: -125DraftKings

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer. His other lines below are the same simulated read of his game, cut at the thresholds the market quotes.

Our simulated receptions
average 4.8, median 5
The line
4.5

His last 5, receptions

1v IND2026 week 8
4v HOU2026 week 6
6v PHI2026 week 5
1v CIN2026 week 4
3v NE2026 week 3

His other lines in this market

2+ receptionsDataPitch 92% · Market 96%-2500book price at this line
3+ receptionsDataPitch 82% · Market 85%-579book price at this line
4+ receptionsDataPitch 67% · Market 69%-221book price at this line
6+ receptionsDataPitch 36% · Market 33%+202book price at this line
7+ receptionsDataPitch 23% · Market 20%+396book price at this line
8+ receptionsDataPitch 15% · Market 12%+760book price at this line
9+ receptionsDataPitch 9% · Market 7%+1380book price at this line
10+ receptionsDataPitch 5% · Market 4%+2400book price at this line
Mark Andrews TE · BAL 3+ receptions-132Bet365

Mark AndrewsTE · BALReceptions

How it ended: Lost, 2 receptions. Not called before kickoff, so it is not in this game's count.

DataPitch 55% · Market 57%

Against this price: Gap -2pp

Under 2.5: +100Bet365

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer. His other lines below are the same simulated read of his game, cut at the thresholds the market quotes.

Our simulated receptions
average 3.1, median 3
The line
2.5

His last 5, receptions

3v BUF2026 week 8
3v CIN2026 week 7
1v CLE2026 week 6
4v ATL2026 week 5
5v TEN2026 week 4

His other lines in this market

2+ receptionsDataPitch 76% · Market 85%-556book price at this line
4+ receptionsDataPitch 36% · Market 41%+144book price at this line
5+ receptionsDataPitch 22% · Market 26%+280book price at this line
6+ receptionsDataPitch 12% · Market 15%+550book price at this line
7+ receptionsDataPitch 7% · Market 8%+1100book price at this line
8+ receptionsDataPitch 3% · Market 4%+2400book price at this line
Zay Flowers WR · BAL 5+ receptions+110Bet365

Zay FlowersWR · BALReceptions

How it ended: Lost, 3 receptions. Not called before kickoff, so it is not in this game's count.

DataPitch 44% · Market 48%

Against this price: Gap -4pp

Under 4.5: -141Bet365

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer. His other lines below are the same simulated read of his game, cut at the thresholds the market quotes.

Our simulated receptions
average 4.5, median 4
The line
4.5

His last 5, receptions

0v BUF2026 week 8
8v CIN2026 week 7
6v CLE2026 week 6
8v ATL2026 week 5
8v TEN2026 week 4

His other lines in this market

2+ receptionsDataPitch 90% · Market 93%-1260book price at this line
3+ receptionsDataPitch 78% · Market 80%-409book price at this line
4+ receptionsDataPitch 61% · Market 65%-182book price at this line
6+ receptionsDataPitch 30% · Market 34%+192book price at this line
7+ receptionsDataPitch 19% · Market 23%+336book price at this line
8+ receptionsDataPitch 12% · Market 15%+562book price at this line
9+ receptionsDataPitch 6% · Market 9%+970book price at this line
10+ receptionsDataPitch 4% · Market 6%+1480book price at this line
11+ receptionsDataPitch 2% · Market 5%+2100book price at this line
12+ receptionsDataPitch 1% · Market 3%+2800book price at this line
Brenton Strange TE · JAX 4+ receptions-116Bet365

Brenton StrangeTE · JAXReceptions

How it ended: Lost, 2 receptions. Not called before kickoff, so it is not in this game's count.

DataPitch 47% · Market 54%

Against this price: Gap -7pp

Under 3.5: -116Bet365

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer. His other lines below are the same simulated read of his game, cut at the thresholds the market quotes.

Our simulated receptions
average 3.6, median 3
The line
3.5

His last 5, receptions

2v IND2026 week 8
5v HOU2026 week 6
7v PHI2026 week 5
7v CIN2026 week 4
3v NE2026 week 3

His other lines in this market

2+ receptionsDataPitch 83% · Market 91%-990book price at this line
3+ receptionsDataPitch 65% · Market 74%-289book price at this line
5+ receptionsDataPitch 31% · Market 35%+185book price at this line
6+ receptionsDataPitch 19% · Market 21%+380book price at this line
7+ receptionsDataPitch 11% · Market 12%+770book price at this line
8+ receptionsDataPitch 6% · Market 7%+1420book price at this line
9+ receptionsDataPitch 3% · Market 4%+2400book price at this line
Rashod Bateman WR · BAL 2+ receptions-111Bet365

Rashod BatemanWR · BALReceptions

How it ended: Lost, 1 reception. Not called before kickoff, so it is not in this game's count.

DataPitch 43% · Market 53%

Against this price: Gap -10pp

Under 1.5: -120Bet365

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer. His other lines below are the same simulated read of his game, cut at the thresholds the market quotes.

Our simulated receptions
average 1.5, median 1
The line
1.5

His last 5, receptions

1v BUF2026 week 8
2v CIN2026 week 7
0v CLE2026 week 6
5v ATL2026 week 5
2v TEN2026 week 4

His other lines in this market

3+ receptionsDataPitch 21% · Market 36%+177book price at this line
4+ receptionsDataPitch 9% · Market 23%+330book price at this line
5+ receptionsDataPitch 4% · Market 14%+625book price at this line
6+ receptionsDataPitch 1% · Market 8%+1200book price at this line
7+ receptionsDataPitch 0% · Market 4%+2300book price at this line
Derrick Henry RB · BAL 2+ receptions+108DraftKings

Derrick HenryRB · BALReceptions

How it ended: Lost, 0 receptions. Not called before kickoff, so it is not in this game's count.

DataPitch 36% · Market 48%

Against this price: Gap -12pp

Under 1.5: -139DraftKings

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer. His other lines below are the same simulated read of his game, cut at the thresholds the market quotes.

Our simulated receptions
average 1.3, median 1
The line
1.5

His last 5, receptions

2v BUF2026 week 8
1v CIN2026 week 7
1v CLE2026 week 6
1v ATL2026 week 5
2v TEN2026 week 4

His other lines in this market

3+ receptionsDataPitch 17% · Market 31%+220book price at this line
4+ receptionsDataPitch 7% · Market 17%+475book price at this line
5+ receptionsDataPitch 3% · Market 9%+1050book price at this line
6+ receptionsDataPitch 1% · Market 4%+2400book price at this line
Receptions at the thresholds this game's players share. Tap a price to put that level in your slip. Green marks a level our read rates; every other price is the market's alone.
Player3+4+5+6+
Jakobi MeyersWR · JAX
Travis HunterWR · JAX
Brian Thomas Jr.WR · JAX
Parker WashingtonWR · JAX
Mark AndrewsTE · BAL
Zay FlowersWR · BAL
Brenton StrangeTE · JAX
Rashod BatemanWR · BAL
Derrick HenryRB · BAL

Columns are the levels most of this market's players are quoted at. One player's whole ladder sits behind his row in the player list.

Rushing yards16
Derrick Henry RB · BAL 70+ rushing yardsLost57 yds+100consensus market price

Derrick HenryRB · BALRushing yards

How it ended: Lost, 57 yds. Called before kickoff, so it is in this game's count.

DataPitch 66% · Market 50%

Against this price: Gap +16pp

Under 69.5: -114consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer. His other lines below are the same simulated read of his game, cut at the thresholds the market quotes.

Our simulated rushing yards
average 90.1, median 85
The line
69.5

His last 5, rushing yards

53v BUF2026 week 8
45v CIN2026 week 7
58v CLE2026 week 6
102v ATL2026 week 5
73v TEN2026 week 4

His other lines in this market

25+ rushing yardsDataPitch 98% · Market 97%-2800book price at this line
30+ rushing yardsDataPitch 96% · Market 93%-1420book price at this line
40+ rushing yardsDataPitch 91% · Market 85%-561book price at this line
50+ rushing yardsDataPitch 85% · Market 74%-282book price at this line
60+ rushing yardsDataPitch 76% · Market 62%-161book price at this line
67+ rushing yardsDataPitch 69% · Market 53%-114book price at this line
80+ rushing yardsDataPitch 56% · Market 39%+156book price at this line
90+ rushing yardsDataPitch 46% · Market 30%+232book price at this line
100+ rushing yardsDataPitch 37% · Market 23%+343book price at this line
110+ rushing yardsDataPitch 29% · Market 17%+501book price at this line
120+ rushing yardsDataPitch 22% · Market 12%+740book price at this line
130+ rushing yardsDataPitch 17% · Market 9%+1080book price at this line
140+ rushing yardsDataPitch 12% · Market 6%+1540book price at this line
150+ rushing yardsDataPitch 9% · Market 5%+2100book price at this line
160+ rushing yardsDataPitch 6% · Market 3%+2900book price at this line
170+ rushing yardsDataPitch 5% · Market 3%+3700book price at this line
Justice Hill RB · BAL 14+ rushing yards-116Bet365

Justice HillRB · BALRushing yards

How it ended: Won, 85 yds. Not called before kickoff, so it is not in this game's count.

DataPitch 35% · Market 54%

Against this price: Gap -19pp

Under 13.5: -116Bet365

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer. His other lines below are the same simulated read of his game, cut at the thresholds the market quotes.

Our simulated rushing yards
average 13.6, median 7
The line
13.5

His last 5, rushing yards

15v BUF2026 week 8
7v CIN2026 week 7
0v CLE2026 week 6
73v ATL2026 week 5
3v TEN2026 week 4

His other lines in this market

10+ rushing yardsDataPitch 44% · Market 68%-216book price at this line
15+ rushing yardsDataPitch 33% · Market 54%-115book price at this line
20+ rushing yardsDataPitch 25% · Market 40%+149book price at this line
25+ rushing yardsDataPitch 19% · Market 30%+233book price at this line
30+ rushing yardsDataPitch 15% · Market 22%+350book price at this line
40+ rushing yardsDataPitch 9% · Market 13%+690book price at this line
50+ rushing yardsDataPitch 5% · Market 8%+1180book price at this line
60+ rushing yardsDataPitch 3% · Market 5%+1780book price at this line
70+ rushing yardsDataPitch 2% · Market 4%+2600book price at this line
80+ rushing yardsDataPitch 1% · Market 3%+3600book price at this line
More players (4)
Bhayshul Tuten RB · JAX 67+ rushing yards-118consensus market price

Bhayshul TutenRB · JAXRushing yards

How it ended: Lost, 29 yds. Not called before kickoff, so it is not in this game's count.

DataPitch 32% · Market 54%

Against this price: Gap -22pp

Under 66.5: -125consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated rushing yards
average 55.9, median 50
The line
66.5

His last 5, rushing yards

104v IND2026 week 8
39v HOU2026 week 6
72v PHI2026 week 5
73v CIN2026 week 4
73v NE2026 week 3
Trevor Lawrence QB · JAX 13+ rushing yards-110consensus market price

Trevor LawrenceQB · JAXRushing yards

How it ended: Lost, -1 yds. Not called before kickoff, so it is not in this game's count.

DataPitch 24% · Market 52%

Against this price: Gap -28pp

Under 12.5: -111consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer. His other lines below are the same simulated read of his game, cut at the thresholds the market quotes.

Our simulated rushing yards
average 8.6, median 4
The line
12.5

His last 5, rushing yards

10v IND2026 week 8
11v HOU2026 week 6
25v PHI2026 week 5
0v CIN2026 week 4
25v NE2026 week 3

His other lines in this market

10+ rushing yardsDataPitch 31% · Market 59%-146book price at this line
12+ rushing yardsDataPitch 26% · Market 53%-112book price at this line
15+ rushing yardsDataPitch 21% · Market 44%+126book price at this line
20+ rushing yardsDataPitch 14% · Market 32%+214book price at this line
25+ rushing yardsDataPitch 10% · Market 23%+341book price at this line
30+ rushing yardsDataPitch 7% · Market 16%+513book price at this line
40+ rushing yardsDataPitch 4% · Market 9%+1080book price at this line
50+ rushing yardsDataPitch 2% · Market 5%+1960book price at this line
60+ rushing yardsDataPitch 1% · Market 3%+3100book price at this line
Chris Rodriguez Jr. RB · JAX 30+ rushing yards-355consensus market price

Chris Rodriguez Jr.RB · JAXRushing yards

How it ended: Lost, 19 yds. Not called before kickoff, so it is not in this game's count.

DataPitch 38% · Market 78%

Against this price: Gap -40pp

Under 29.5: +182consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated rushing yards
average 28.4, median 22
The line
29.5

His last 5, rushing yards

41v IND2026 week 8
55v HOU2026 week 6
5v PHI2026 week 5
35v CIN2026 week 4
37v NE2026 week 3
Joe Fagnano QB · BAL 7+ rushing yardsno fresh market price in the 2026-11-05 capture; an older price is not shown

Joe FagnanoQB · BALRushing yards

How it ended: Ungradeable, 13 yds. Not called before kickoff, so it is not in this game's count.

DataPitch 55%

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated rushing yards
average 15.2, median 8
The line
6.5

His last 1, rushing yards

3v BUF2026 week 8
Rushing yards at the thresholds this game's players share. Tap a price to put that level in your slip. Green marks a level our read rates; every other price is the market's alone.
Player25+30+40+50+
Derrick HenryRB · BAL
Justice HillRB · BAL
Trevor LawrenceQB · JAX

Columns are the levels most of this market's players are quoted at. One player's whole ladder sits behind his row in the player list.

Passing yards1
Trevor Lawrence QB · JAX 236+ passing yards-115consensus market price

Trevor LawrenceQB · JAXPassing yards

How it ended: Won, 242 yds. Not called before kickoff, so it is not in this game's count.

DataPitch 51% · Market 54%

Against this price: Gap -3pp

Under 235.5: -111consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer. His other lines below are the same simulated read of his game, cut at the thresholds the market quotes.

Our simulated passing yards
average 242, median 237
The line
235.5

His last 5, passing yards

175v IND2026 week 8
306v HOU2026 week 6
306v PHI2026 week 5
212v CIN2026 week 4
178v NE2026 week 3

His other lines in this market

150+ passing yardsDataPitch 90% · Market 94%-1480book price at this line
160+ passing yardsDataPitch 87% · Market 91%-990book price at this line
170+ passing yardsDataPitch 83% · Market 88%-700book price at this line
180+ passing yardsDataPitch 79% · Market 83%-495book price at this line
190+ passing yardsDataPitch 74% · Market 79%-365book price at this line
200+ passing yardsDataPitch 69% · Market 73%-275book price at this line
210+ passing yardsDataPitch 64% · Market 67%-207book price at this line
220+ passing yardsDataPitch 59% · Market 62%-162book price at this line
230+ passing yardsDataPitch 54% · Market 56%-127book price at this line
235+ passing yardsDataPitch 51% · Market 53%-113book price at this line
240+ passing yardsDataPitch 49% · Market 50%+100book price at this line
250+ passing yardsDataPitch 43% · Market 44%+125book price at this line
260+ passing yardsDataPitch 38% · Market 39%+158book price at this line
270+ passing yardsDataPitch 34% · Market 33%+199book price at this line
280+ passing yardsDataPitch 29% · Market 29%+251book price at this line
290+ passing yardsDataPitch 25% · Market 24%+315book price at this line
300+ passing yardsDataPitch 21% · Market 21%+388book price at this line
310+ passing yardsDataPitch 18% · Market 17%+481book price at this line
320+ passing yardsDataPitch 15% · Market 14%+596book price at this line
330+ passing yardsDataPitch 13% · Market 12%+740book price at this line
340+ passing yardsDataPitch 11% · Market 10%+930book price at this line
350+ passing yardsDataPitch 9% · Market 8%+1160book price at this line
360+ passing yardsDataPitch 7% · Market 7%+1420book price at this line
370+ passing yardsDataPitch 6% · Market 6%+1720book price at this line
380+ passing yardsDataPitch 5% · Market 5%+2000book price at this line
390+ passing yardsDataPitch 4% · Market 4%+2300book price at this line
400+ passing yardsDataPitch 3% · Market 4%+2600book price at this line
410+ passing yardsDataPitch 2% · Market 3%+3000book price at this line

Every price is a captured market quote in American odds, labelled as such; our percentage and the gap to the market's sit behind the row's tap. A row's colour is our number against the price: green means we rate the row's own selection well above what the price says, red means the price rates it more than we do, white means the two are close. A row's last five counts his last five games in this market, most recent first, regular season and playoffs.

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