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Houston Texans at Los Angeles Chargers

Week 9 · Sun Nov 8, 4:05 PM ET · Market line LAC +5.5 · total 40.5

How our calls did

Final: Houston Texans 44, Los Angeles Chargers 22

Called before kickoff: 5. Won 3, lost 1, void 1.

Each called row carries the same stamp in its market below. The green or red down a row's side is still our read against the price before kickoff, not how it ended. Prices taken Sun 8 Nov, 12:32 UK.

Every market we price

24 rows on 4 markets, best first: tap a market to open it, tap a player for his numbers, the price behind his and what our read rests on.

Receiving yards210
Oronde Gadsden TE · LAC 16+ receiving yardsWon17 yds-120price shown when this board was published

Oronde GadsdenTE · LACReceiving yards

How it ended: Won, 17 yds. Called before kickoff, so it is in this game's count.

DataPitch 91% · Market 55%

Against this price: Gap +36pp

Under 15.5: -110price shown when this board was published

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receiving yards
average 59.4, median 52
The line
15.5

His last 5, receiving yards

17v HOU2026 week 9
52v LA2026 week 8
17v KC2026 week 6
0v DEN2026 week 5
36v SEA2026 week 4
Quentin Johnston WR · LAC 31+ receiving yardsWon58 yds-115price shown when this board was published

Quentin JohnstonWR · LACReceiving yards

How it ended: Won, 58 yds. Called before kickoff, so it is in this game's count.

DataPitch 89% · Market 54%

Against this price: Gap +35pp

Under 30.5: -118price shown when this board was published

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receiving yards
average 80.7, median 74.5
The line
30.5

His last 5, receiving yards

58v HOU2026 week 9
37v LA2026 week 8
57v KC2026 week 6
44v SEA2026 week 4
40v BUF2026 week 3
More players (8)
Tre' Harris WR · LAC 30+ receiving yards-113price shown when this board was published

Tre' HarrisWR · LACReceiving yards

How it ended: Lost, 6 yds. Not called before kickoff, so it is not in this game's count.

DataPitch 79% · Market 53%

Against this price: Gap +26pp

Under 29.5: -116price shown when this board was published

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receiving yards
average 60.9, median 55
The line
29.5

His last 5, receiving yards

6v HOU2026 week 9
31v LA2026 week 8
16v DEN2026 week 5
60v SEA2026 week 4
76v BUF2026 week 3
Kayshon Boutte WR · HOU 16+ receiving yards-116price shown when this board was published

Kayshon BoutteWR · HOUReceiving yards

How it ended: Won, 125 yds. Not called before kickoff, so it is not in this game's count.

DataPitch 74% · Market 54%

Against this price: Gap +20pp

Under 15.5: -116price shown when this board was published

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receiving yards
average 37.4, median 29
The line
15.5

His last 5, receiving yards

125v LAC2026 week 9
25v NYG2026 week 7
16v JAX2026 week 6
38v TEN2026 week 5
36v DAL2026 week 4
Xavier Hutchinson WR · HOU 22+ receiving yards-112price shown when this board was published

Xavier HutchinsonWR · HOUReceiving yards

How it ended: Won, 29 yds. Not called before kickoff, so it is not in this game's count.

DataPitch 62% · Market 53%

Against this price: Gap +9pp

Under 21.5: -112price shown when this board was published

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receiving yards
average 35.4, median 30
The line
21.5

His last 5, receiving yards

29v LAC2026 week 9
17v NYG2026 week 7
10v JAX2026 week 6
65v TEN2026 week 5
46v DAL2026 week 4
Ladd McConkey WR · LAC 53+ receiving yards-116price shown when this board was published

Ladd McConkeyWR · LACReceiving yards

How it ended: Void, did not play. Not called before kickoff, so it is not in this game's count.

DataPitch 58% · Market 54%

Against this price: Gap +4pp

Under 52.5: -116price shown when this board was published

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receiving yards
average 63.9, median 59
The line
52.5

His last 5, receiving yards

86v LA2026 week 8
17v KC2026 week 6
0v SEA2026 week 4
66v BUF2026 week 3
35v LV2026 week 2
Marvin Harrison Jr. WR · HOU 25+ receiving yards-115price shown when this board was published

Marvin Harrison Jr.WR · HOUReceiving yards

How it ended: Lost, 20 yds. Not called before kickoff, so it is not in this game's count.

DataPitch 41% · Market 54%

Against this price: Gap -13pp

Under 24.5: -111price shown when this board was published

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receiving yards
average 24.6, median 19
The line
24.5

His last 5, receiving yards

20v LAC2026 week 9
6v NYG2026 week 7
34v JAX2026 week 6
12v NYG2026 week 4
40v SF2026 week 3
Dalton Schultz TE · HOU 35+ receiving yards-116price shown when this board was published

Dalton SchultzTE · HOUReceiving yards

How it ended: Won, 42 yds. Not called before kickoff, so it is not in this game's count.

DataPitch 36% · Market 54%

Against this price: Gap -18pp

Under 34.5: -116price shown when this board was published

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receiving yards
average 30.3, median 25
The line
34.5

His last 5, receiving yards

42v LAC2026 week 9
45v NYG2026 week 7
33v JAX2026 week 6
30v TEN2026 week 5
9v DAL2026 week 4
Woody Marks RB · HOU 14+ receiving yards-106price shown when this board was published

Woody MarksRB · HOUReceiving yards

How it ended: Lost, 4 yds. Not called before kickoff, so it is not in this game's count.

DataPitch 25% · Market 52%

Against this price: Gap -27pp

Under 13.5: -119price shown when this board was published

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receiving yards
average 9.1, median 5
The line
13.5

His last 5, receiving yards

4v LAC2026 week 9
15v NYG2026 week 7
25v JAX2026 week 6
23v TEN2026 week 5
0v DAL2026 week 4
Nico Collins WR · HOU 69+ receiving yards-115price shown when this board was published

Nico CollinsWR · HOUReceiving yards

How it ended: Lost, 55 yds. Not called before kickoff, so it is not in this game's count.

DataPitch 23% · Market 54%

Against this price: Gap -31pp

Under 68.5: -111price shown when this board was published

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receiving yards
average 47.2, median 42
The line
68.5

His last 5, receiving yards

55v LAC2026 week 9
6v NYG2026 week 7
74v JAX2026 week 6
56v TEN2026 week 5
118v DAL2026 week 4
Receptions210
Oronde Gadsden TE · LAC 2+ receptionsWon2 receptions-167price shown when this board was published

Oronde GadsdenTE · LACReceptions

How it ended: Won, 2 receptions. Called before kickoff, so it is in this game's count.

DataPitch 90% · Market 63%

Against this price: Gap +27pp

Under 1.5: +130price shown when this board was published

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receptions
average 4.5, median 4
The line
1.5

His last 5, receptions

2v HOU2026 week 9
5v LA2026 week 8
3v KC2026 week 6
0v DEN2026 week 5
5v SEA2026 week 4
Ladd McConkey WR · LAC 4+ receptionsVoiddid not play-147price shown when this board was published

Ladd McConkeyWR · LACReceptions

How it ended: Void, did not play. Called before kickoff, so it is in this game's count.

DataPitch 69% · Market 60%

Against this price: Gap +9pp

Under 3.5: +115price shown when this board was published

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receptions
average 5, median 5
The line
3.5

His last 5, receptions

4v LA2026 week 8
1v KC2026 week 6
0v SEA2026 week 4
4v BUF2026 week 3
3v LV2026 week 2
More players (8)
Quentin Johnston WR · LAC 3+ receptions+105price shown when this board was published

Quentin JohnstonWR · LACReceptions

How it ended: Lost, 1 reception. Not called before kickoff, so it is not in this game's count.

DataPitch 89% · Market 49%

Against this price: Gap +40pp

Under 2.5: -135price shown when this board was published

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receptions
average 5.8, median 6
The line
2.5

His last 5, receptions

1v HOU2026 week 9
4v LA2026 week 8
1v KC2026 week 6
1v SEA2026 week 4
3v BUF2026 week 3
Tre' Harris WR · LAC 3+ receptions-128price shown when this board was published

Tre' HarrisWR · LACReceptions

How it ended: Won, 3 receptions. Not called before kickoff, so it is not in this game's count.

DataPitch 80% · Market 56%

Against this price: Gap +24pp

Under 2.5: +100price shown when this board was published

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receptions
average 4.8, median 4
The line
2.5

His last 5, receptions

3v HOU2026 week 9
3v LA2026 week 8
2v DEN2026 week 5
3v SEA2026 week 4
6v BUF2026 week 3
Kayshon Boutte WR · HOU 2+ receptions+104price shown when this board was published

Kayshon BoutteWR · HOUReceptions

How it ended: Won, 4 receptions. Not called before kickoff, so it is not in this game's count.

DataPitch 57% · Market 49%

Against this price: Gap +8pp

Under 1.5: -135price shown when this board was published

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receptions
average 2.1, median 2
The line
1.5

His last 5, receptions

4v LAC2026 week 9
1v NYG2026 week 7
2v JAX2026 week 6
3v TEN2026 week 5
3v DAL2026 week 4
Xavier Hutchinson WR · HOU 3+ receptions+149price shown when this board was published

Xavier HutchinsonWR · HOUReceptions

How it ended: Won, 3 receptions. Not called before kickoff, so it is not in this game's count.

DataPitch 46% · Market 40%

Against this price: Gap +6pp

Under 2.5: -192price shown when this board was published

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receptions
average 2.6, median 2
The line
2.5

His last 5, receptions

3v LAC2026 week 9
3v NYG2026 week 7
2v JAX2026 week 6
4v TEN2026 week 5
3v DAL2026 week 4
Dalton Schultz TE · HOU 4+ receptions-135price shown when this board was published

Dalton SchultzTE · HOUReceptions

How it ended: Lost, 2 receptions. Not called before kickoff, so it is not in this game's count.

DataPitch 40% · Market 57%

Against this price: Gap -17pp

Under 3.5: +105price shown when this board was published

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receptions
average 3.3, median 3
The line
3.5

His last 5, receptions

2v LAC2026 week 9
5v NYG2026 week 7
4v JAX2026 week 6
3v TEN2026 week 5
2v DAL2026 week 4
Marvin Harrison Jr. WR · HOU 3+ receptions+106price shown when this board was published

Marvin Harrison Jr.WR · HOUReceptions

How it ended: Lost, 2 receptions. Not called before kickoff, so it is not in this game's count.

DataPitch 26% · Market 49%

Against this price: Gap -23pp

Under 2.5: -140price shown when this board was published

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receptions
average 1.7, median 1
The line
2.5

His last 5, receptions

2v LAC2026 week 9
1v NYG2026 week 7
3v JAX2026 week 6
1v NYG2026 week 4
3v SF2026 week 3
Nico Collins WR · HOU 6+ receptions+120price shown when this board was published

Nico CollinsWR · HOUReceptions

How it ended: Lost, 4 receptions. Not called before kickoff, so it is not in this game's count.

DataPitch 14% · Market 46%

Against this price: Gap -32pp

Under 5.5: -152price shown when this board was published

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receptions
average 3.3, median 3
The line
5.5

His last 5, receptions

4v LAC2026 week 9
2v NYG2026 week 7
3v JAX2026 week 6
5v TEN2026 week 5
7v DAL2026 week 4
Woody Marks RB · HOU 3+ receptions+124price shown when this board was published

Woody MarksRB · HOUReceptions

How it ended: Lost, 1 reception. Not called before kickoff, so it is not in this game's count.

DataPitch 13% · Market 45%

Against this price: Gap -32pp

Under 2.5: -162price shown when this board was published

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receptions
average 1.1, median 1
The line
2.5

His last 5, receptions

1v LAC2026 week 9
1v NYG2026 week 7
2v JAX2026 week 6
4v TEN2026 week 5
0v DAL2026 week 4
Rushing yards13
Justin Herbert QB · LAC 22+ rushing yardsLost7 yds-116price shown when this board was published

Justin HerbertQB · LACRushing yards

How it ended: Lost, 7 yds. Called before kickoff, so it is in this game's count.

DataPitch 62% · Market 54%

Against this price: Gap +8pp

Under 21.5: -116price shown when this board was published

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated rushing yards
average 33.8, median 28
The line
21.5

His last 5, rushing yards

7v HOU2026 week 9
15v LA2026 week 8
26v KC2026 week 6
54v DEN2026 week 5
40v SEA2026 week 4
Emari Demercado RB · HOU 9+ rushing yards-105price shown when this board was published

Emari DemercadoRB · HOURushing yards

How it ended: Won, 16 yds. Not called before kickoff, so it is not in this game's count.

DataPitch 62% · Market 51%

Against this price: Gap +11pp

Under 8.5: -110price shown when this board was published

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated rushing yards
average 22.9, median 15
The line
8.5

His last 5, rushing yards

16v LAC2026 week 9
8v WAS2026 week 2
7v NYG2026 week 1
29v LA2025 week 18
11v CIN2025 week 17
More players (1)
Woody Marks RB · HOU 61+ rushing yards-116price shown when this board was published

Woody MarksRB · HOURushing yards

How it ended: Won, 70 yds. Not called before kickoff, so it is not in this game's count.

DataPitch 28% · Market 54%

Against this price: Gap -26pp

Under 60.5: -116price shown when this board was published

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated rushing yards
average 46.4, median 40
The line
60.5

His last 5, rushing yards

70v LAC2026 week 9
66v NYG2026 week 7
56v JAX2026 week 6
62v TEN2026 week 5
22v DAL2026 week 4
Passing yards1
Justin Herbert QB · LAC 208+ passing yards-113price shown when this board was published

Justin HerbertQB · LACPassing yards

How it ended: Lost, 193 yds. Not called before kickoff, so it is not in this game's count.

DataPitch 48% · Market 53%

Against this price: Gap -5pp

Under 207.5: -110price shown when this board was published

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated passing yards
average 209.8, median 204
The line
207.5

His last 5, passing yards

153v HOU2026 week 9
231v LA2026 week 8
186v KC2026 week 6
82v DEN2026 week 5
154v SEA2026 week 4

Every price is a captured market quote in American odds, labelled as such; our percentage and the gap to the market's sit behind the row's tap. A row's colour is our number against the price: green means we rate the row's own selection well above what the price says, red means the price rates it more than we do, white means the two are close. A row's last five counts his last five games in this market, most recent first, regular season and playoffs.

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