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Dallas Cowboys at Indianapolis Colts

Week 9 · Sun Nov 8, 1:00 PM ET · Market line IND +4.5 · total 51.5

How our calls did

Final: Dallas Cowboys 27, Indianapolis Colts 23

Called before kickoff: 1. Lost 1.

Each called row carries the same stamp in its market below. The green or red down a row's side is still our read against the price before kickoff, not how it ended. Prices taken Sun 8 Nov, 12:26 UK.

Every market we price

25 rows on 4 markets, best first: tap a market to open it, tap a player for his numbers, the price behind his and what our read rests on.

Receiving yards8
Jonathan Taylor RB · IND 19+ receiving yards-116price shown when this board was published

Jonathan TaylorRB · INDReceiving yards

How it ended: Lost, 18 yds. Not called before kickoff, so it is not in this game's count.

DataPitch 52% · Market 54%

Against this price: Gap -2pp

Under 18.5: -116price shown when this board was published

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receiving yards
average 24.5, median 19
The line
18.5

His last 5, receiving yards

18v DAL2026 week 9
24v JAX2026 week 8
15v MIN2026 week 7
57v TEN2026 week 6
37v PIT2026 week 5
DoubtfulGeorge Pickens WR · DAL 58+ receiving yards-112price shown when this board was published

George PickensWR · DALReceiving yards

How it ended: Void, did not play. Not called before kickoff, so it is not in this game's count.

Doubtful: Questionable: Shoulder - Limited Practice on Friday. Questionable for Week 8 vs. Arizona

DataPitch 50% · Market 53%

Against this price: Gap -3pp

Under 57.5: -112price shown when this board was published

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receiving yards
average 64.1, median 57
The line
57.5

His last 5, receiving yards

48v ARI2026 week 8
57v PHI2026 week 7
73v GB2026 week 6
130v TB2026 week 5
75v HOU2026 week 4
More players (6)
Javonte Williams RB · DAL 8+ receiving yards-125price shown when this board was published

Javonte WilliamsRB · DALReceiving yards

How it ended: Won, 23 yds. Not called before kickoff, so it is not in this game's count.

DataPitch 52% · Market 56%

Against this price: Gap -4pp

Under 7.5: -105price shown when this board was published

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receiving yards
average 11.5, median 8
The line
7.5

His last 5, receiving yards

23v IND2026 week 9
1v ARI2026 week 8
0v PHI2026 week 7
9v GB2026 week 6
17v TB2026 week 5
Tyler Warren TE · IND 43+ receiving yards-116price shown when this board was published

Tyler WarrenTE · INDReceiving yards

How it ended: Won, 44 yds. Not called before kickoff, so it is not in this game's count.

DataPitch 48% · Market 54%

Against this price: Gap -6pp

Under 42.5: -116price shown when this board was published

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receiving yards
average 46.7, median 41
The line
42.5

His last 5, receiving yards

44v DAL2026 week 9
18v JAX2026 week 8
83v PIT2026 week 5
41v WAS2026 week 4
55v HOU2026 week 3
Ryan Flournoy WR · DAL 48+ receiving yards-115price shown when this board was published

Ryan FlournoyWR · DALReceiving yards

How it ended: Won, 53 yds. Not called before kickoff, so it is not in this game's count.

DataPitch 43% · Market 54%

Against this price: Gap -11pp

Under 47.5: -111price shown when this board was published

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receiving yards
average 47.2, median 42
The line
47.5

His last 5, receiving yards

53v IND2026 week 9
38v ARI2026 week 8
70v PHI2026 week 7
40v GB2026 week 6
90v TB2026 week 5
Keenan Allen WR · IND 42+ receiving yards-113price shown when this board was published

Keenan AllenWR · INDReceiving yards

How it ended: Lost, 26 yds. Not called before kickoff, so it is not in this game's count.

DataPitch 41% · Market 53%

Against this price: Gap -12pp

Under 41.5: -113price shown when this board was published

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receiving yards
average 40.1, median 35
The line
41.5

His last 5, receiving yards

26v DAL2026 week 9
67v JAX2026 week 8
31v MIN2026 week 7
82v TEN2026 week 6
45v PIT2026 week 5
Josh Downs WR · IND 45+ receiving yards-109price shown when this board was published

Josh DownsWR · INDReceiving yards

How it ended: Lost, 24 yds. Not called before kickoff, so it is not in this game's count.

DataPitch 35% · Market 52%

Against this price: Gap -17pp

Under 44.5: -108price shown when this board was published

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receiving yards
average 38.9, median 34
The line
44.5

His last 5, receiving yards

24v DAL2026 week 9
23v JAX2026 week 8
18v MIN2026 week 7
40v TEN2026 week 6
47v PIT2026 week 5
CeeDee Lamb WR · DAL 84+ receiving yards-109price shown when this board was published

CeeDee LambWR · DALReceiving yards

How it ended: Won, 195 yds. Not called before kickoff, so it is not in this game's count.

DataPitch 22% · Market 52%

Against this price: Gap -30pp

Under 83.5: -106price shown when this board was published

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receiving yards
average 57.8, median 51
The line
83.5

His last 5, receiving yards

195v IND2026 week 9
58v ARI2026 week 8
74v PHI2026 week 7
70v GB2026 week 6
9v TB2026 week 5
Receptions8
Jonathan Taylor RB · IND 3+ receptions-103price shown when this board was published

Jonathan TaylorRB · INDReceptions

How it ended: Won, 5 receptions. Not called before kickoff, so it is not in this game's count.

DataPitch 50% · Market 51%

Against this price: Gap -1pp

Under 2.5: -125price shown when this board was published

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receptions
average 2.8, median 2
The line
2.5

His last 5, receptions

5v DAL2026 week 9
4v JAX2026 week 8
2v MIN2026 week 7
2v TEN2026 week 6
3v PIT2026 week 5
DoubtfulGeorge Pickens WR · DAL 5+ receptions+123price shown when this board was published

George PickensWR · DALReceptions

How it ended: Void, did not play. Not called before kickoff, so it is not in this game's count.

Doubtful: Questionable: Shoulder - Limited Practice on Friday. Questionable for Week 8 vs. Arizona

DataPitch 42% · Market 45%

Against this price: Gap -3pp

Under 4.5: -159price shown when this board was published

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receptions
average 4.3, median 4
The line
4.5

His last 5, receptions

2v ARI2026 week 8
4v PHI2026 week 7
6v GB2026 week 6
9v TB2026 week 5
2v HOU2026 week 4
More players (6)
Ryan Flournoy WR · DAL 4+ receptions-120price shown when this board was published

Ryan FlournoyWR · DALReceptions

How it ended: Lost, 2 receptions. Not called before kickoff, so it is not in this game's count.

DataPitch 49% · Market 55%

Against this price: Gap -6pp

Under 3.5: -111price shown when this board was published

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receptions
average 3.8, median 3
The line
3.5

His last 5, receptions

2v IND2026 week 9
3v ARI2026 week 8
4v PHI2026 week 7
7v GB2026 week 6
3v TB2026 week 5
Josh Downs WR · IND 5+ receptions+130price shown when this board was published

Josh DownsWR · INDReceptions

How it ended: Lost, 3 receptions. Not called before kickoff, so it is not in this game's count.

DataPitch 35% · Market 44%

Against this price: Gap -9pp

Under 4.5: -170price shown when this board was published

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receptions
average 3.9, median 4
The line
4.5

His last 5, receptions

3v DAL2026 week 9
4v JAX2026 week 8
2v MIN2026 week 7
4v TEN2026 week 6
3v PIT2026 week 5
Javonte Williams RB · DAL 2+ receptions-137price shown when this board was published

Javonte WilliamsRB · DALReceptions

How it ended: Won, 4 receptions. Not called before kickoff, so it is not in this game's count.

DataPitch 44% · Market 58%

Against this price: Gap -14pp

Under 1.5: +106price shown when this board was published

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receptions
average 1.6, median 1
The line
1.5

His last 5, receptions

4v IND2026 week 9
1v ARI2026 week 8
0v PHI2026 week 7
2v GB2026 week 6
2v TB2026 week 5
Tyler Warren TE · IND 6+ receptions+119price shown when this board was published

Tyler WarrenTE · INDReceptions

How it ended: Lost, 4 receptions. Not called before kickoff, so it is not in this game's count.

DataPitch 27% · Market 46%

Against this price: Gap -19pp

Under 5.5: -154price shown when this board was published

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receptions
average 4.2, median 4
The line
5.5

His last 5, receptions

4v DAL2026 week 9
4v JAX2026 week 8
7v PIT2026 week 5
5v WAS2026 week 4
9v HOU2026 week 3
Keenan Allen WR · IND 5+ receptions-119price shown when this board was published

Keenan AllenWR · INDReceptions

How it ended: Lost, 4 receptions. Not called before kickoff, so it is not in this game's count.

DataPitch 27% · Market 54%

Against this price: Gap -27pp

Under 4.5: -109price shown when this board was published

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receptions
average 3.4, median 3
The line
4.5

His last 5, receptions

4v DAL2026 week 9
7v JAX2026 week 8
3v MIN2026 week 7
8v TEN2026 week 6
5v PIT2026 week 5
CeeDee Lamb WR · DAL 7+ receptions-114price shown when this board was published

CeeDee LambWR · DALReceptions

How it ended: Won, 10 receptions. Not called before kickoff, so it is not in this game's count.

DataPitch 15% · Market 53%

Against this price: Gap -38pp

Under 6.5: -110price shown when this board was published

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receptions
average 4.1, median 4
The line
6.5

His last 5, receptions

10v IND2026 week 9
7v ARI2026 week 8
5v PHI2026 week 7
9v GB2026 week 6
2v TB2026 week 5
Rushing yards7
Jonathan Taylor RB · IND 64+ rushing yards-117price shown when this board was published

Jonathan TaylorRB · INDRushing yards

How it ended: Lost, 46 yds. Not called before kickoff, so it is not in this game's count.

DataPitch 55% · Market 54%

Against this price: Gap +1pp

Under 63.5: -112price shown when this board was published

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated rushing yards
average 75.8, median 69
The line
63.5

His last 5, rushing yards

46v DAL2026 week 9
23v JAX2026 week 8
95v MIN2026 week 7
94v TEN2026 week 6
45v PIT2026 week 5
Javonte Williams RB · DAL 71+ rushing yards-121price shown when this board was published

Javonte WilliamsRB · DALRushing yards

How it ended: Won, 101 yds. Not called before kickoff, so it is not in this game's count.

DataPitch 48% · Market 55%

Against this price: Gap -7pp

Under 70.5: -110price shown when this board was published

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated rushing yards
average 74.1, median 69
The line
70.5

His last 5, rushing yards

101v IND2026 week 9
56v ARI2026 week 8
155v PHI2026 week 7
41v GB2026 week 6
45v TB2026 week 5
More players (5)
Dak Prescott QB · DAL 6+ rushing yards-118price shown when this board was published

Dak PrescottQB · DALRushing yards

How it ended: Lost, 1 yds. Not called before kickoff, so it is not in this game's count.

DataPitch 40% · Market 54%

Against this price: Gap -14pp

Under 5.5: -105price shown when this board was published

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated rushing yards
average 8.6, median 3
The line
5.5

His last 5, rushing yards

1v IND2026 week 9
20v ARI2026 week 8
8v PHI2026 week 7
7v GB2026 week 6
0v TB2026 week 5
Ryan Flournoy WR · DAL 1+ rushing yards+375price shown when this board was published

Ryan FlournoyWR · DALRushing yards

How it ended: Lost, 0 yds. Not called before kickoff, so it is not in this game's count.

DataPitch 3% · Market 21%

Against this price: Gap -18pp

Under 0.5: -556price shown when this board was published

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated rushing yards
average 0.4, median 0
The line
0.5

His last 5, rushing yards

0v IND2026 week 9
3v ARI2026 week 8
0v PHI2026 week 7
0v GB2026 week 6
0v TB2026 week 5
Daniel Jones QB · IND 8+ rushing yards-114price shown when this board was published

Daniel JonesQB · INDRushing yards

How it ended: Won, 11 yds. Not called before kickoff, so it is not in this game's count.

DataPitch 33% · Market 53%

Against this price: Gap -20pp

Under 7.5: -108price shown when this board was published

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated rushing yards
average 8.2, median 3
The line
7.5

His last 5, rushing yards

11v DAL2026 week 9
7v JAX2026 week 8
13v MIN2026 week 7
30v TEN2026 week 6
4v PIT2026 week 5
Seth McGowan RB · IND 26+ rushing yards-122price shown when this board was published

Seth McGowanRB · INDRushing yards

How it ended: Won, 45 yds. Not called before kickoff, so it is not in this game's count.

DataPitch 31% · Market 55%

Against this price: Gap -24pp

Under 25.5: -111price shown when this board was published

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated rushing yards
average 21.3, median 13
The line
25.5

His last 5, rushing yards

45v DAL2026 week 9
29v JAX2026 week 8
46v MIN2026 week 7
27v TEN2026 week 6
16v PIT2026 week 5
Tyler Goodson RB · DAL 20+ rushing yards-113price shown when this board was published

Tyler GoodsonRB · DALRushing yards

How it ended: Won, 77 yds. Not called before kickoff, so it is not in this game's count.

DataPitch 28% · Market 53%

Against this price: Gap -25pp

Under 19.5: -113price shown when this board was published

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated rushing yards
average 15.4, median 9
The line
19.5

His last 5, rushing yards

77v IND2026 week 9
14v ARI2026 week 8
38v PHI2026 week 7
0v GB2026 week 6
12v HOU2026 week 4
Passing yards12
Daniel Jones QB · IND 202+ passing yardsLost180 yds-112price shown when this board was published

Daniel JonesQB · INDPassing yards

How it ended: Lost, 180 yds. Called before kickoff, so it is in this game's count.

DataPitch 62% · Market 53%

Against this price: Gap +9pp

Under 201.5: -114price shown when this board was published

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated passing yards
average 227, median 222
The line
201.5

His last 5, passing yards

166v DAL2026 week 9
136v JAX2026 week 8
64v MIN2026 week 7
234v TEN2026 week 6
266v PIT2026 week 5
Dak Prescott QB · DAL 266+ passing yards-111price shown when this board was published

Dak PrescottQB · DALPassing yards

How it ended: Won, 335 yds. Not called before kickoff, so it is not in this game's count.

DataPitch 44% · Market 53%

Against this price: Gap -9pp

Under 265.5: -115price shown when this board was published

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated passing yards
average 258.8, median 254
The line
265.5

His last 5, passing yards

329v IND2026 week 9
168v ARI2026 week 8
212v PHI2026 week 7
255v GB2026 week 6
316v TB2026 week 5

Every price is a captured market quote in American odds, labelled as such; our percentage and the gap to the market's sit behind the row's tap. A row's colour is our number against the price: green means we rate the row's own selection well above what the price says, red means the price rates it more than we do, white means the two are close. A row's last five counts his last five games in this market, most recent first, regular season and playoffs.

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