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Cincinnati Bengals at Atlanta Falcons

Week 9 · Sun Nov 8, 9:30 AM ET · Market line ATL +3 · total 52.5

How our calls did

Final: Cincinnati Bengals 34, Atlanta Falcons 17

Called before kickoff: 8. Won 4, lost 4.

Each called row carries the same stamp in its market below. The green or red down a row's side is still our read against the price before kickoff, not how it ended. Prices taken Sun 8 Nov, 12:32 UK.

Every market we price

30 rows on 4 markets, best first: tap a market to open it, tap a player for his numbers, the price behind his and what our read rests on.

Receiving yards311
Drew Sample TE · CIN 4+ receiving yardsLost0 yds-114price shown when this board was published

Drew SampleTE · CINReceiving yards

How it ended: Lost, 0 yds. Called before kickoff, so it is in this game's count.

DataPitch 72% · Market 53%

Against this price: Gap +19pp

Under 3.5: -111price shown when this board was published

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receiving yards
average 16.9, median 11
The line
3.5

His last 5, receiving yards

24v BAL2026 week 7
5v MIA2026 week 5
0v PIT2026 week 3
19v TB2026 week 1
17v CLE2025 week 18
Chase Brown RB · CIN 22+ receiving yardsLost18 yds-116price shown when this board was published

Chase BrownRB · CINReceiving yards

How it ended: Lost, 18 yds. Called before kickoff, so it is in this game's count.

DataPitch 62% · Market 54%

Against this price: Gap +8pp

Under 21.5: -112price shown when this board was published

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receiving yards
average 32, median 28
The line
21.5

His last 5, receiving yards

18v ATL2026 week 9
46v TEN2026 week 8
19v BAL2026 week 7
21v MIA2026 week 5
71v JAX2026 week 4
More players (9)
Ja'Marr Chase WR · CIN 77+ receiving yardsWon155 yds-112price shown when this board was published

Ja'Marr ChaseWR · CINReceiving yards

How it ended: Won, 155 yds. Called before kickoff, so it is in this game's count.

DataPitch 61% · Market 53%

Against this price: Gap +8pp

Under 76.5: +100price shown when this board was published

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receiving yards
average 93.8, median 88
The line
76.5

His last 5, receiving yards

155v ATL2026 week 9
141v TEN2026 week 8
62v BAL2026 week 7
77v MIA2026 week 5
27v JAX2026 week 4
Austin Hooper TE · ATL 7+ receiving yards-114price shown when this board was published

Austin HooperTE · ATLReceiving yards

How it ended: Lost, 0 yds. Not called before kickoff, so it is not in this game's count.

DataPitch 80% · Market 53%

Against this price: Gap +27pp

Under 6.5: -112price shown when this board was published

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receiving yards
average 27.8, median 21
The line
6.5

His last 5, receiving yards

9v TB2026 week 8
21v SF2026 week 7
6v CHI2026 week 6
9v NO2026 week 4
11v GB2026 week 3
DoubtfulOlamide Zaccheaus WR · ATL 9+ receiving yards-114price shown when this board was published

Olamide ZaccheausWR · ATLReceiving yards

How it ended: Lost, 5 yds. Not called before kickoff, so it is not in this game's count.

Doubtful: Questionable: Shoulder - Limited Practice on Friday. Questionable for Week 8 at Tampa Bay

DataPitch 61% · Market 53%

Against this price: Gap +8pp

Under 8.5: -111price shown when this board was published

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receiving yards
average 17.8, median 13
The line
8.5

His last 5, receiving yards

5v CIN2026 week 9
4v TB2026 week 8
0v CHI2026 week 6
0v BAL2026 week 5
0v NO2026 week 4
Bijan Robinson RB · ATL 26+ receiving yards-113price shown when this board was published

Bijan RobinsonRB · ATLReceiving yards

How it ended: Won, 47 yds. Not called before kickoff, so it is not in this game's count.

DataPitch 51% · Market 53%

Against this price: Gap -2pp

Under 25.5: -111price shown when this board was published

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receiving yards
average 32.5, median 26
The line
25.5

His last 5, receiving yards

47v CIN2026 week 9
0v TB2026 week 8
59v SF2026 week 7
-8v CHI2026 week 6
32v BAL2026 week 5
Charlie Woerner TE · ATL 5+ receiving yards-116price shown when this board was published

Charlie WoernerTE · ATLReceiving yards

How it ended: Lost, 1 yds. Not called before kickoff, so it is not in this game's count.

DataPitch 45% · Market 54%

Against this price: Gap -9pp

Under 4.5: -116price shown when this board was published

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receiving yards
average 9, median 1
The line
4.5

His last 5, receiving yards

1v CIN2026 week 9
0v TB2026 week 8
9v SF2026 week 7
13v BAL2026 week 5
0v NO2026 week 4
Kyle Pitts Sr. TE · ATL 43+ receiving yards-111price shown when this board was published

Kyle Pitts Sr.TE · ATLReceiving yards

How it ended: Lost, 23 yds. Not called before kickoff, so it is not in this game's count.

DataPitch 43% · Market 53%

Against this price: Gap -10pp

Under 42.5: -110price shown when this board was published

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receiving yards
average 43.1, median 37
The line
42.5

His last 5, receiving yards

23v CIN2026 week 9
6v TB2026 week 8
22v SF2026 week 7
60v CHI2026 week 6
42v BAL2026 week 5
Jahan Dotson WR · ATL 30+ receiving yards-111price shown when this board was published

Jahan DotsonWR · ATLReceiving yards

How it ended: Lost, 16 yds. Not called before kickoff, so it is not in this game's count.

DataPitch 29% · Market 53%

Against this price: Gap -24pp

Under 29.5: -114price shown when this board was published

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receiving yards
average 21.8, median 15
The line
29.5

His last 5, receiving yards

16v CIN2026 week 9
95v TB2026 week 8
6v SF2026 week 7
87v CHI2026 week 6
54v BAL2026 week 5
Tee Higgins WR · CIN 78+ receiving yards-116price shown when this board was published

Tee HigginsWR · CINReceiving yards

How it ended: Lost, 32 yds. Not called before kickoff, so it is not in this game's count.

DataPitch 25% · Market 54%

Against this price: Gap -29pp

Under 77.5: -116price shown when this board was published

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receiving yards
average 56.9, median 51
The line
77.5

His last 5, receiving yards

32v ATL2026 week 9
155v TEN2026 week 8
148v BAL2026 week 7
22v MIA2026 week 5
157v JAX2026 week 4
Drake London WR · ATL 79+ receiving yards-116price shown when this board was published

Drake LondonWR · ATLReceiving yards

How it ended: Lost, 68 yds. Not called before kickoff, so it is not in this game's count.

DataPitch 15% · Market 54%

Against this price: Gap -39pp

Under 78.5: -116price shown when this board was published

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receiving yards
average 44.9, median 39
The line
78.5

His last 5, receiving yards

68v CIN2026 week 9
8v TB2026 week 8
66v SF2026 week 7
62v CHI2026 week 6
118v BAL2026 week 5
Receptions111
Drew Sample TE · CIN 1+ receptionsLost0 receptions-196price shown when this board was published

Drew SampleTE · CINReceptions

How it ended: Lost, 0 receptions. Called before kickoff, so it is in this game's count.

DataPitch 76% · Market 66%

Against this price: Gap +10pp

Under 0.5: +151price shown when this board was published

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receptions
average 1.8, median 1
The line
0.5

His last 5, receptions

2v BAL2026 week 7
1v MIA2026 week 5
1v PIT2026 week 3
3v TB2026 week 1
3v CLE2025 week 18
Austin Hooper TE · ATL 1+ receptions-212price shown when this board was published

Austin HooperTE · ATLReceptions

How it ended: Lost, 0 receptions. Not called before kickoff, so it is not in this game's count.

DataPitch 80% · Market 68%

Against this price: Gap +12pp

Under 0.5: +156price shown when this board was published

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receptions
average 2, median 2
The line
0.5

His last 5, receptions

1v TB2026 week 8
2v SF2026 week 7
1v CHI2026 week 6
1v NO2026 week 4
2v GB2026 week 3
More players (9)
Ja'Marr Chase WR · CIN 7+ receptions-125price shown when this board was published

Ja'Marr ChaseWR · CINReceptions

How it ended: Won, 10 receptions. Not called before kickoff, so it is not in this game's count.

DataPitch 58% · Market 56%

Against this price: Gap +2pp

Under 6.5: -105price shown when this board was published

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receptions
average 7.4, median 7
The line
6.5

His last 5, receptions

10v ATL2026 week 9
11v TEN2026 week 8
5v BAL2026 week 7
6v MIA2026 week 5
3v JAX2026 week 4
DoubtfulOlamide Zaccheaus WR · ATL 2+ receptions+102price shown when this board was published

Olamide ZaccheausWR · ATLReceptions

How it ended: Lost, 1 reception. Not called before kickoff, so it is not in this game's count.

Doubtful: Questionable: Shoulder - Limited Practice on Friday. Questionable for Week 8 at Tampa Bay

DataPitch 50% · Market 50%

Against this price: Gap +0pp

Under 1.5: -130price shown when this board was published

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receptions
average 1.8, median 2
The line
1.5

His last 5, receptions

1v CIN2026 week 9
1v TB2026 week 8
0v CHI2026 week 6
0v BAL2026 week 5
0v NO2026 week 4
Chase Brown RB · CIN 4+ receptions-161price shown when this board was published

Chase BrownRB · CINReceptions

How it ended: Lost, 3 receptions. Not called before kickoff, so it is not in this game's count.

DataPitch 56% · Market 62%

Against this price: Gap -6pp

Under 3.5: +125price shown when this board was published

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receptions
average 4.2, median 4
The line
3.5

His last 5, receptions

3v ATL2026 week 9
8v TEN2026 week 8
4v BAL2026 week 7
3v MIA2026 week 5
11v JAX2026 week 4
Bijan Robinson RB · ATL 4+ receptions+120price shown when this board was published

Bijan RobinsonRB · ATLReceptions

How it ended: Won, 6 receptions. Not called before kickoff, so it is not in this game's count.

DataPitch 38% · Market 46%

Against this price: Gap -8pp

Under 3.5: -152price shown when this board was published

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receptions
average 3.1, median 3
The line
3.5

His last 5, receptions

6v CIN2026 week 9
0v TB2026 week 8
5v SF2026 week 7
2v CHI2026 week 6
4v BAL2026 week 5
Charlie Woerner TE · ATL 1+ receptions-182price shown when this board was published

Charlie WoernerTE · ATLReceptions

How it ended: Won, 1 reception. Not called before kickoff, so it is not in this game's count.

DataPitch 51% · Market 65%

Against this price: Gap -14pp

Under 0.5: +140price shown when this board was published

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receptions
average 0.9, median 1
The line
0.5

His last 5, receptions

1v CIN2026 week 9
0v TB2026 week 8
1v SF2026 week 7
1v BAL2026 week 5
0v NO2026 week 4
Kyle Pitts Sr. TE · ATL 4+ receptions-182price shown when this board was published

Kyle Pitts Sr.TE · ATLReceptions

How it ended: Lost, 3 receptions. Not called before kickoff, so it is not in this game's count.

DataPitch 47% · Market 65%

Against this price: Gap -18pp

Under 3.5: +140price shown when this board was published

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receptions
average 3.6, median 3
The line
3.5

His last 5, receptions

3v CIN2026 week 9
2v TB2026 week 8
5v SF2026 week 7
5v CHI2026 week 6
5v BAL2026 week 5
Jahan Dotson WR · ATL 2+ receptions-180price shown when this board was published

Jahan DotsonWR · ATLReceptions

How it ended: Won, 2 receptions. Not called before kickoff, so it is not in this game's count.

DataPitch 38% · Market 64%

Against this price: Gap -26pp

Under 1.5: +140price shown when this board was published

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receptions
average 1.4, median 1
The line
1.5

His last 5, receptions

2v CIN2026 week 9
2v TB2026 week 8
1v SF2026 week 7
3v CHI2026 week 6
2v BAL2026 week 5
Tee Higgins WR · CIN 6+ receptions-103price shown when this board was published

Tee HigginsWR · CINReceptions

How it ended: Lost, 5 receptions. Not called before kickoff, so it is not in this game's count.

DataPitch 24% · Market 51%

Against this price: Gap -27pp

Under 5.5: -125price shown when this board was published

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receptions
average 4.1, median 4
The line
5.5

His last 5, receptions

5v ATL2026 week 9
10v TEN2026 week 8
6v BAL2026 week 7
2v MIA2026 week 5
11v JAX2026 week 4
Drake London WR · ATL 6+ receptions-135price shown when this board was published

Drake LondonWR · ATLReceptions

How it ended: Lost, 5 receptions. Not called before kickoff, so it is not in this game's count.

DataPitch 11% · Market 57%

Against this price: Gap -46pp

Under 5.5: +103price shown when this board was published

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receptions
average 3, median 3
The line
5.5

His last 5, receptions

5v CIN2026 week 9
1v TB2026 week 8
7v SF2026 week 7
4v CHI2026 week 6
7v BAL2026 week 5
Rushing yards36
Chase Brown RB · CIN 50+ rushing yardsWon57 yds-113price shown when this board was published

Chase BrownRB · CINRushing yards

How it ended: Won, 57 yds. Called before kickoff, so it is in this game's count.

DataPitch 69% · Market 53%

Against this price: Gap +16pp

Under 49.5: -112price shown when this board was published

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated rushing yards
average 74.4, median 68
The line
49.5

His last 5, rushing yards

57v ATL2026 week 9
55v TEN2026 week 8
39v BAL2026 week 7
39v MIA2026 week 5
10v JAX2026 week 4
Bijan Robinson RB · ATL 98+ rushing yardsWon100 yds-114price shown when this board was published

Bijan RobinsonRB · ATLRushing yards

How it ended: Won, 100 yds. Called before kickoff, so it is in this game's count.

DataPitch 61% · Market 53%

Against this price: Gap +8pp

Under 97.5: -111price shown when this board was published

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated rushing yards
average 117.2, median 111
The line
97.5

His last 5, rushing yards

100v CIN2026 week 9
76v TB2026 week 8
63v SF2026 week 7
61v CHI2026 week 6
86v BAL2026 week 5
More players (4)
Samaje Perine RB · CIN 18+ rushing yardsWon43 yds-106price shown when this board was published

Samaje PerineRB · CINRushing yards

How it ended: Won, 43 yds. Called before kickoff, so it is in this game's count.

DataPitch 58% · Market 52%

Against this price: Gap +6pp

Under 17.5: -119price shown when this board was published

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated rushing yards
average 29.4, median 22
The line
17.5

His last 5, rushing yards

43v ATL2026 week 9
10v TEN2026 week 8
16v BAL2026 week 7
68v MIA2026 week 5
7v JAX2026 week 4
Charlie Woerner TE · ATL 1+ rushing yards+600price shown when this board was published

Charlie WoernerTE · ATLRushing yards

How it ended: Lost, 0 yds. Not called before kickoff, so it is not in this game's count.

DataPitch 13% · Market 14%

Against this price: Gap -1pp

Under 0.5: -1000price shown when this board was published

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated rushing yards
average 1.9, median 0
The line
0.5

His last 5, rushing yards

0v CIN2026 week 9
0v TB2026 week 8
3v SF2026 week 7
0v BAL2026 week 5
0v NO2026 week 4
Michael Penix Jr. QB · ATL 5+ rushing yards-116price shown when this board was published

Michael Penix Jr.QB · ATLRushing yards

How it ended: Won, 50 yds. Not called before kickoff, so it is not in this game's count.

DataPitch 47% · Market 54%

Against this price: Gap -7pp

Under 4.5: -110price shown when this board was published

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated rushing yards
average 11.4, median 4
The line
4.5

His last 5, rushing yards

50v CIN2026 week 9
11v TB2026 week 8
-1v SF2026 week 7
1v CHI2026 week 6
8v BAL2026 week 5
Joe Burrow QB · CIN 9+ rushing yards-116price shown when this board was published

Joe BurrowQB · CINRushing yards

How it ended: Lost, 7 yds. Not called before kickoff, so it is not in this game's count.

DataPitch 41% · Market 54%

Against this price: Gap -13pp

Under 8.5: -109price shown when this board was published

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated rushing yards
average 12, median 5
The line
8.5

His last 5, rushing yards

7v ATL2026 week 9
10v TEN2026 week 8
12v BAL2026 week 7
10v MIA2026 week 5
6v JAX2026 week 4
Passing yards12
Michael Penix Jr. QB · ATL 223+ passing yardsLost162 yds-113price shown when this board was published

Michael Penix Jr.QB · ATLPassing yards

How it ended: Lost, 162 yds. Called before kickoff, so it is in this game's count.

DataPitch 61% · Market 53%

Against this price: Gap +8pp

Under 222.5: +100price shown when this board was published

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated passing yards
average 249.6, median 243
The line
222.5

His last 5, passing yards

162v CIN2026 week 9
125v TB2026 week 8
213v SF2026 week 7
198v CHI2026 week 6
223v BAL2026 week 5
Joe Burrow QB · CIN 279+ passing yards-112price shown when this board was published

Joe BurrowQB · CINPassing yards

How it ended: Lost, 271 yds. Not called before kickoff, so it is not in this game's count.

DataPitch 23% · Market 53%

Against this price: Gap -30pp

Under 278.5: -112price shown when this board was published

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated passing yards
average 229.2, median 224
The line
278.5

His last 5, passing yards

265v ATL2026 week 9
435v TEN2026 week 8
284v BAL2026 week 7
190v MIA2026 week 5
414v JAX2026 week 4

Every price is a captured market quote in American odds, labelled as such; our percentage and the gap to the market's sit behind the row's tap. A row's colour is our number against the price: green means we rate the row's own selection well above what the price says, red means the price rates it more than we do, white means the two are close. A row's last five counts his last five games in this market, most recent first, regular season and playoffs.

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