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Minnesota Vikings at Detroit Lions

Week 8 · Sun Nov 1, 1:00 PM ET · Market line DET -3 · total 46.5

How our calls did

Final: Minnesota Vikings 15, Detroit Lions 19

Called before kickoff: 4. Won 2, lost 2.

Each called row carries the same stamp in its market below. The green or red down a row's side is still our read against the price before kickoff, not how it ended. Prices taken Sun 1 Nov, 11:05 UK.

Every market we price

23 rows on 4 markets, best first: tap a market to open it, tap a player for his numbers, the price behind his and what our read rests on.

Receiving yards17
T.J. Hockenson TE · MIN 42+ receiving yardsWon58 yds-114consensus market price

T.J. HockensonTE · MINReceiving yards

How it ended: Won, 58 yds. Called before kickoff, so it is in this game's count.

DataPitch 67% · Market 53%

Against this price: Gap +14pp

Under 41.5: -116consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receiving yards
average 59.7, median 55
The line
41.5

His last 5, receiving yards

35v IND2026 week 7
7v NO2026 week 5
119v MIA2026 week 4
11v TB2026 week 3
29v CHI2026 week 2
Aaron Jones Sr. RB · MIN 10+ receiving yards-106DraftKings

Aaron Jones Sr.RB · MINReceiving yards

How it ended: Won, 18 yds. Not called before kickoff, so it is not in this game's count.

DataPitch 93% · Market 52%

Against this price: Gap +41pp

Under 9.5: -119DraftKings

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receiving yards
average 41.9, median 37
The line
9.5

His last 5, receiving yards

0v IND2026 week 7
4v NO2026 week 5
34v MIA2026 week 4
34v TB2026 week 3
0v CHI2026 week 2
More players (5)
Jahmyr Gibbs RB · DET 29+ receiving yards-111DraftKings

Jahmyr GibbsRB · DETReceiving yards

How it ended: Lost, 15 yds. Not called before kickoff, so it is not in this game's count.

DataPitch 43% · Market 53%

Against this price: Gap -10pp

Under 28.5: -115DraftKings

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receiving yards
average 29.1, median 24
The line
28.5

His last 5, receiving yards

27v GB2026 week 7
56v ARI2026 week 5
31v CAR2026 week 4
65v NYJ2026 week 3
61v BUF2026 week 2
Jameson Williams WR · DET 52+ receiving yards-113consensus market price

Jameson WilliamsWR · DETReceiving yards

How it ended: Won, 70 yds. Not called before kickoff, so it is not in this game's count.

DataPitch 36% · Market 53%

Against this price: Gap -17pp

Under 51.5: -111consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receiving yards
average 46, median 40
The line
51.5

His last 5, receiving yards

91v GB2026 week 7
47v ARI2026 week 5
102v CAR2026 week 4
49v NYJ2026 week 3
33v BUF2026 week 2
DoubtfulAmon-Ra St. Brown WR · DET 78+ receiving yards-114consensus market price

Amon-Ra St. BrownWR · DETReceiving yards

How it ended: Lost, 46 yds. Not called before kickoff, so it is not in this game's count.

Doubtful: Questionable: Ankle - Questionable for Week 8 vs. Minnesota

DataPitch 35% · Market 53%

Against this price: Gap -18pp

Under 77.5: -109consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receiving yards
average 68.1, median 63
The line
77.5

His last 5, receiving yards

153v GB2026 week 7
69v ARI2026 week 5
75v CAR2026 week 4
19v NYJ2026 week 3
142v BUF2026 week 2
Isaac TeSlaa WR · DET 19+ receiving yards-111DraftKings

Isaac TeSlaaWR · DETReceiving yards

How it ended: Lost, 0 yds. Not called before kickoff, so it is not in this game's count.

DataPitch 33% · Market 53%

Against this price: Gap -20pp

Under 18.5: -114DraftKings

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receiving yards
average 15.8, median 10
The line
18.5

His last 5, receiving yards

10v GB2026 week 7
0v ARI2026 week 5
95v CAR2026 week 4
66v NYJ2026 week 3
26v BUF2026 week 2
Sam LaPorta TE · DET 46+ receiving yards-113consensus market price

Sam LaPortaTE · DETReceiving yards

How it ended: Lost, 33 yds. Not called before kickoff, so it is not in this game's count.

DataPitch 27% · Market 53%

Against this price: Gap -26pp

Under 45.5: -116consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receiving yards
average 33.4, median 28
The line
45.5

His last 5, receiving yards

18v GB2026 week 7
88v ARI2026 week 5
84v CAR2026 week 4
44v NYJ2026 week 3
52v BUF2026 week 2
Receptions27
Aaron Jones Sr. RB · MIN 2+ receptionsWon2 receptions-156Bet365

Aaron Jones Sr.RB · MINReceptions

How it ended: Won, 2 receptions. Called before kickoff, so it is in this game's count.

DataPitch 94% · Market 61%

Against this price: Gap +33pp

Under 1.5: +122Bet365

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receptions
average 5.2, median 5
The line
1.5

His last 5, receptions

1v IND2026 week 7
3v NO2026 week 5
4v MIA2026 week 4
5v TB2026 week 3
0v CHI2026 week 2
T.J. Hockenson TE · MIN 5+ receptionsLost4 receptions-105Bet365

T.J. HockensonTE · MINReceptions

How it ended: Lost, 4 receptions. Called before kickoff, so it is in this game's count.

DataPitch 72% · Market 51%

Against this price: Gap +21pp

Under 4.5: -125Bet365

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receptions
average 6.3, median 6
The line
4.5

His last 5, receptions

4v IND2026 week 7
1v NO2026 week 5
13v MIA2026 week 4
2v TB2026 week 3
3v CHI2026 week 2
More players (5)
Jameson Williams WR · DET 4+ receptions+122Bet365

Jameson WilliamsWR · DETReceptions

How it ended: Won, 4 receptions. Not called before kickoff, so it is not in this game's count.

DataPitch 38% · Market 45%

Against this price: Gap -7pp

Under 3.5: -156Bet365

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receptions
average 3.1, median 3
The line
3.5

His last 5, receptions

5v GB2026 week 7
2v ARI2026 week 5
6v CAR2026 week 4
4v NYJ2026 week 3
2v BUF2026 week 2
Jahmyr Gibbs RB · DET 5+ receptions+128DraftKings

Jahmyr GibbsRB · DETReceptions

How it ended: Lost, 2 receptions. Not called before kickoff, so it is not in this game's count.

DataPitch 29% · Market 44%

Against this price: Gap -15pp

Under 4.5: -167DraftKings

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receptions
average 3.5, median 3
The line
4.5

His last 5, receptions

5v GB2026 week 7
5v ARI2026 week 5
4v CAR2026 week 4
7v NYJ2026 week 3
6v BUF2026 week 2
Isaac TeSlaa WR · DET 2+ receptions-104DraftKings

Isaac TeSlaaWR · DETReceptions

How it ended: Lost, 0 receptions. Not called before kickoff, so it is not in this game's count.

DataPitch 30% · Market 51%

Against this price: Gap -21pp

Under 1.5: -123DraftKings

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receptions
average 1.1, median 1
The line
1.5

His last 5, receptions

1v GB2026 week 7
0v ARI2026 week 5
4v CAR2026 week 4
3v NYJ2026 week 3
2v BUF2026 week 2
Sam LaPorta TE · DET 5+ receptions+111DraftKings

Sam LaPortaTE · DETReceptions

How it ended: Lost, 3 receptions. Not called before kickoff, so it is not in this game's count.

DataPitch 26% · Market 47%

Against this price: Gap -21pp

Under 4.5: -143DraftKings

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receptions
average 3.3, median 3
The line
4.5

His last 5, receptions

1v GB2026 week 7
5v ARI2026 week 5
8v CAR2026 week 4
3v NYJ2026 week 3
6v BUF2026 week 2
DoubtfulAmon-Ra St. Brown WR · DET 8+ receptions+105DraftKings

Amon-Ra St. BrownWR · DETReceptions

How it ended: Lost, 7 receptions. Not called before kickoff, so it is not in this game's count.

Doubtful: Questionable: Ankle - Questionable for Week 8 vs. Minnesota

DataPitch 21% · Market 49%

Against this price: Gap -28pp

Under 7.5: -133DraftKings

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receptions
average 5.4, median 5
The line
7.5

His last 5, receptions

9v GB2026 week 7
6v ARI2026 week 5
8v CAR2026 week 4
4v NYJ2026 week 3
9v BUF2026 week 2
Rushing yards17
Aaron Jones Sr. RB · MIN 30+ rushing yardsLost22 yds-115DraftKings

Aaron Jones Sr.RB · MINRushing yards

How it ended: Lost, 22 yds. Called before kickoff, so it is in this game's count.

DataPitch 78% · Market 54%

Against this price: Gap +24pp

Under 29.5: -111DraftKings

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated rushing yards
average 57.7, median 52
The line
29.5

His last 5, rushing yards

26v IND2026 week 7
113v NO2026 week 5
94v MIA2026 week 4
58v TB2026 week 3
105v CHI2026 week 2
Sione Vaki RB · DET 5+ rushing yards-116Bet365

Sione VakiRB · DETRushing yards

How it ended: Won, 65 yds. Not called before kickoff, so it is not in this game's count.

DataPitch 50% · Market 54%

Against this price: Gap -4pp

Under 4.5: -116Bet365

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated rushing yards
average 10.2, median 5
The line
4.5

His last 5, rushing yards

5v GB2026 week 7
11v ARI2026 week 5
0v CAR2026 week 4
26v NYJ2026 week 3
7v BUF2026 week 2
More players (5)
Jared Goff QB · DET 1+ rushing yards-111Bet365

Jared GoffQB · DETRushing yards

How it ended: Lost, 0 yds. Not called before kickoff, so it is not in this game's count.

DataPitch 44% · Market 53%

Against this price: Gap -9pp

Under 0.5: -120Bet365

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated rushing yards
average 5.1, median 0
The line
0.5

His last 5, rushing yards

-1v GB2026 week 7
1v ARI2026 week 5
0v CAR2026 week 4
6v NYJ2026 week 3
7v BUF2026 week 2
Jameson Williams WR · DET 1+ rushing yards+575Bet365

Jameson WilliamsWR · DETRushing yards

How it ended: Lost, 0 yds. Not called before kickoff, so it is not in this game's count.

DataPitch 2% · Market 15%

Against this price: Gap -13pp

Under 0.5: -1000Bet365

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated rushing yards
average 0.2, median 0
The line
0.5

His last 5, rushing yards

0v GB2026 week 7
0v ARI2026 week 5
0v CAR2026 week 4
0v NYJ2026 week 3
0v BUF2026 week 2
Jahmyr Gibbs RB · DET 88+ rushing yards-116Bet365

Jahmyr GibbsRB · DETRushing yards

How it ended: Won, 153 yds. Not called before kickoff, so it is not in this game's count.

DataPitch 36% · Market 54%

Against this price: Gap -18pp

Under 87.5: -116Bet365

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated rushing yards
average 78.7, median 73
The line
87.5

His last 5, rushing yards

116v GB2026 week 7
151v ARI2026 week 5
46v CAR2026 week 4
99v NYJ2026 week 3
52v BUF2026 week 2
Jordan Mason RB · MIN 50+ rushing yards-110DraftKings

Jordan MasonRB · MINRushing yards

How it ended: Lost, 20 yds. Not called before kickoff, so it is not in this game's count.

DataPitch 28% · Market 52%

Against this price: Gap -24pp

Under 49.5: -116DraftKings

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated rushing yards
average 37.4, median 30
The line
49.5

His last 5, rushing yards

68v IND2026 week 7
59v GB2026 week 1
94v GB2025 week 18
5v NYG2025 week 16
29v DAL2025 week 15
Kyler Murray QB · MIN 25+ rushing yards-112DraftKings

Kyler MurrayQB · MINRushing yards

How it ended: Won, 35 yds. Not called before kickoff, so it is not in this game's count.

DataPitch 23% · Market 53%

Against this price: Gap -30pp

Under 24.5: -112DraftKings

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated rushing yards
average 15.5, median 9
The line
24.5

His last 5, rushing yards

39v IND2026 week 7
51v NO2026 week 5
16v MIA2026 week 4
17v TB2026 week 3
9v GB2026 week 1
Passing yards2
Jared Goff QB · DET 260+ passing yards+101consensus market price

Jared GoffQB · DETPassing yards

How it ended: Lost, 176 yds. Not called before kickoff, so it is not in this game's count.

DataPitch 30% · Market 50%

Against this price: Gap -20pp

Under 259.5: -113consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated passing yards
average 227.1, median 222
The line
259.5

His last 5, passing yards

296v GB2026 week 7
249v ARI2026 week 5
406v CAR2026 week 4
250v NYJ2026 week 3
289v BUF2026 week 2
Kyler Murray QB · MIN 225+ passing yards-112consensus market price

Kyler MurrayQB · MINPassing yards

How it ended: Lost, 210 yds. Not called before kickoff, so it is not in this game's count.

DataPitch 22% · Market 53%

Against this price: Gap -31pp

Under 224.5: -108consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated passing yards
average 179.6, median 174
The line
224.5

His last 5, passing yards

139v IND2026 week 7
211v NO2026 week 5
213v MIA2026 week 4
152v TB2026 week 3
18v GB2026 week 1

Every price is a captured market quote in American odds, labelled as such; our percentage and the gap to the market's sit behind the row's tap. A row's colour is our number against the price: green means we rate the row's own selection well above what the price says, red means the price rates it more than we do, white means the two are close. A row's last five counts his last five games in this market, most recent first, regular season and playoffs.

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