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Kansas City Chiefs at Denver Broncos

Week 8 · Sun Nov 1, 4:25 PM ET · Market line DEN +1.5 · total 40.5

How our calls did

Final: Kansas City Chiefs 24, Denver Broncos 28

Called before kickoff: 3. Won 3.

Each called row carries the same stamp in its market below. The green or red down a row's side is still our read against the price before kickoff, not how it ended. Prices taken Sun 1 Nov, 11:05 UK.

Every market we price

20 rows on 4 markets, best first: tap a market to open it, tap a player for his numbers, the price behind his and what our read rests on.

Receiving yards18
Courtland Sutton WR · DEN 41+ receiving yardsWon53 yds-111DraftKings

Courtland SuttonWR · DENReceiving yards

How it ended: Won, 53 yds. Called before kickoff, so it is in this game's count.

DataPitch 72% · Market 53%

Against this price: Gap +19pp

Under 40.5: -115DraftKings

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receiving yards
average 68.2, median 62
The line
40.5

His last 5, receiving yards

45v ARI2026 week 7
19v SEA2026 week 6
18v LAC2026 week 5
4v SF2026 week 4
46v LA2026 week 3
Jalen Royals WR · KC 9+ receiving yards-116Bet365

Jalen RoyalsWR · KCReceiving yards

How it ended: Lost, 4 yds. Not called before kickoff, so it is not in this game's count.

DataPitch 63% · Market 54%

Against this price: Gap +9pp

Under 8.5: -116Bet365

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receiving yards
average 19.3, median 13
The line
8.5

His last 5, receiving yards

0v SEA2026 week 7
24v LAC2026 week 6
0v LV2026 week 4
11v MIA2026 week 3
6v IND2026 week 2
More players (6)
J.K. Dobbins RB · DEN 6+ receiving yards-116Bet365

J.K. DobbinsRB · DENReceiving yards

How it ended: Lost, 0 yds. Not called before kickoff, so it is not in this game's count.

DataPitch 59% · Market 54%

Against this price: Gap +5pp

Under 5.5: -116Bet365

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receiving yards
average 11.9, median 8
The line
5.5

His last 5, receiving yards

0v ARI2026 week 7
5v SEA2026 week 6
6v LAC2026 week 5
12v SF2026 week 4
4v LA2026 week 3
DoubtfulRashee Rice WR · KC 51+ receiving yards-116consensus market price

Rashee RiceWR · KCReceiving yards

How it ended: Won, 53 yds. Not called before kickoff, so it is not in this game's count.

Doubtful: Questionable: Hamstring - Questionable for Week 8 at Denver

DataPitch 47% · Market 54%

Against this price: Gap -7pp

Under 50.5: -115consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receiving yards
average 54.3, median 48
The line
50.5

His last 5, receiving yards

88v MIA2026 week 3
83v IND2026 week 2
19v DEN2026 week 1
51v LAC2025 week 15
34v HOU2025 week 14
Noah Gray TE · KC 15+ receiving yards-114DraftKings

Noah GrayTE · KCReceiving yards

How it ended: Won, 15 yds. Not called before kickoff, so it is not in this game's count.

DataPitch 46% · Market 53%

Against this price: Gap -7pp

Under 14.5: -111DraftKings

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receiving yards
average 17.3, median 12
The line
14.5

His last 5, receiving yards

44v SEA2026 week 7
53v LAC2026 week 6
17v LV2026 week 4
39v MIA2026 week 3
0v IND2026 week 2
Travis Kelce TE · KC 47+ receiving yards-114consensus market price

Travis KelceTE · KCReceiving yards

How it ended: Won, 67 yds. Not called before kickoff, so it is not in this game's count.

DataPitch 39% · Market 53%

Against this price: Gap -14pp

Under 46.5: -114consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receiving yards
average 43.2, median 38
The line
46.5

His last 5, receiving yards

44v SEA2026 week 7
53v LAC2026 week 6
15v LV2026 week 4
59v MIA2026 week 3
101v IND2026 week 2
Kenneth Walker RB · KC 20+ receiving yards-111DraftKings

Kenneth WalkerRB · KCReceiving yards

How it ended: Lost, 15 yds. Not called before kickoff, so it is not in this game's count.

DataPitch 38% · Market 53%

Against this price: Gap -15pp

Under 19.5: -114DraftKings

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receiving yards
average 19.2, median 14
The line
19.5

His last 5, receiving yards

21v SEA2026 week 7
11v LAC2026 week 6
2v LV2026 week 4
3v MIA2026 week 3
61v IND2026 week 2
Xavier Worthy WR · KC 30+ receiving yards-112DraftKings

Xavier WorthyWR · KCReceiving yards

How it ended: Lost, 13 yds. Not called before kickoff, so it is not in this game's count.

DataPitch 38% · Market 53%

Against this price: Gap -15pp

Under 29.5: -112DraftKings

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receiving yards
average 27.4, median 22
The line
29.5

His last 5, receiving yards

11v SEA2026 week 7
73v LAC2026 week 6
70v LV2026 week 4
20v MIA2026 week 3
25v IND2026 week 2
Receptions18
Courtland Sutton WR · DEN 4+ receptionsWon4 receptions-105DraftKings

Courtland SuttonWR · DENReceptions

How it ended: Won, 4 receptions. Called before kickoff, so it is in this game's count.

DataPitch 67% · Market 51%

Against this price: Gap +16pp

Under 3.5: -123DraftKings

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receptions
average 4.9, median 5
The line
3.5

His last 5, receptions

3v ARI2026 week 7
2v SEA2026 week 6
2v LAC2026 week 5
1v SF2026 week 4
3v LA2026 week 3
Jalen Royals WR · KC 1+ receptions-222Bet365

Jalen RoyalsWR · KCReceptions

How it ended: Won, 1 reception. Not called before kickoff, so it is not in this game's count.

DataPitch 81% · Market 69%

Against this price: Gap +12pp

Under 0.5: +170Bet365

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receptions
average 2.1, median 2
The line
0.5

His last 5, receptions

0v SEA2026 week 7
2v LAC2026 week 6
0v LV2026 week 4
1v MIA2026 week 3
2v IND2026 week 2
More players (6)
DoubtfulRashee Rice WR · KC 5+ receptions+100Bet365

Rashee RiceWR · KCReceptions

How it ended: Won, 7 receptions. Not called before kickoff, so it is not in this game's count.

Doubtful: Questionable: Hamstring - Questionable for Week 8 at Denver

DataPitch 60% · Market 50%

Against this price: Gap +10pp

Under 4.5: -132Bet365

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receptions
average 5.5, median 5
The line
4.5

His last 5, receptions

7v MIA2026 week 3
4v IND2026 week 2
2v DEN2026 week 1
7v LAC2025 week 15
4v HOU2025 week 14
J.K. Dobbins RB · DEN 2+ receptions+160Bet365

J.K. DobbinsRB · DENReceptions

How it ended: Lost, 0 receptions. Not called before kickoff, so it is not in this game's count.

DataPitch 43% · Market 39%

Against this price: Gap +4pp

Under 1.5: -213Bet365

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receptions
average 1.6, median 1
The line
1.5

His last 5, receptions

0v ARI2026 week 7
3v SEA2026 week 6
2v LAC2026 week 5
2v SF2026 week 4
1v LA2026 week 3
Noah Gray TE · KC 2+ receptions+100Bet365

Noah GrayTE · KCReceptions

How it ended: Won, 2 receptions. Not called before kickoff, so it is not in this game's count.

DataPitch 51% · Market 50%

Against this price: Gap +1pp

Under 1.5: -132Bet365

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receptions
average 1.9, median 2
The line
1.5

His last 5, receptions

3v SEA2026 week 7
3v LAC2026 week 6
2v LV2026 week 4
3v MIA2026 week 3
0v IND2026 week 2
Travis Kelce TE · KC 5+ receptions+130Bet365

Travis KelceTE · KCReceptions

How it ended: Won, 5 receptions. Not called before kickoff, so it is not in this game's count.

DataPitch 41% · Market 44%

Against this price: Gap -3pp

Under 4.5: -167Bet365

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receptions
average 4.3, median 4
The line
4.5

His last 5, receptions

4v SEA2026 week 7
4v LAC2026 week 6
2v LV2026 week 4
2v MIA2026 week 3
9v IND2026 week 2
Kenneth Walker RB · KC 4+ receptions+126DraftKings

Kenneth WalkerRB · KCReceptions

How it ended: Won, 4 receptions. Not called before kickoff, so it is not in this game's count.

DataPitch 20% · Market 44%

Against this price: Gap -24pp

Under 3.5: -161DraftKings

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receptions
average 2.1, median 2
The line
3.5

His last 5, receptions

4v SEA2026 week 7
2v LAC2026 week 6
1v LV2026 week 4
2v MIA2026 week 3
6v IND2026 week 2
Xavier Worthy WR · KC 4+ receptions+124DraftKings

Xavier WorthyWR · KCReceptions

How it ended: Lost, 3 receptions. Not called before kickoff, so it is not in this game's count.

DataPitch 20% · Market 45%

Against this price: Gap -25pp

Under 3.5: -159DraftKings

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receptions
average 2.1, median 2
The line
3.5

His last 5, receptions

3v SEA2026 week 7
7v LAC2026 week 6
4v LV2026 week 4
2v MIA2026 week 3
5v IND2026 week 2
Rushing yards3
J.K. Dobbins RB · DEN 30+ rushing yards-112consensus market price

J.K. DobbinsRB · DENRushing yards

How it ended: Lost, 13 yds. Not called before kickoff, so it is not in this game's count.

DataPitch 66% · Market 53%

Against this price: Gap +13pp

Under 29.5: -112consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated rushing yards
average 45.9, median 41
The line
29.5

His last 5, rushing yards

23v ARI2026 week 7
41v SEA2026 week 6
68v LAC2026 week 5
40v SF2026 week 4
49v LA2026 week 3
Bo Nix QB · DEN 15+ rushing yards-114consensus market price

Bo NixQB · DENRushing yards

How it ended: Lost, 4 yds. Not called before kickoff, so it is not in this game's count.

DataPitch 31% · Market 53%

Against this price: Gap -22pp

Under 14.5: -110consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated rushing yards
average 12.1, median 8
The line
14.5

His last 5, rushing yards

73v ARI2026 week 7
2v SEA2026 week 6
10v LAC2026 week 5
10v SF2026 week 4
7v LA2026 week 3
More players (1)
Kenneth Walker RB · KC 88+ rushing yards-114DraftKings

Kenneth WalkerRB · KCRushing yards

How it ended: Lost, 69 yds. Not called before kickoff, so it is not in this game's count.

DataPitch 14% · Market 53%

Against this price: Gap -39pp

Under 87.5: -111DraftKings

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated rushing yards
average 50.8, median 44
The line
87.5

His last 5, rushing yards

36v SEA2026 week 7
128v LAC2026 week 6
177v LV2026 week 4
70v MIA2026 week 3
117v IND2026 week 2
Passing yards11
Bo Nix QB · DEN 209+ passing yardsWon222 yds-111consensus market price

Bo NixQB · DENPassing yards

How it ended: Won, 222 yds. Called before kickoff, so it is in this game's count.

DataPitch 57% · Market 53%

Against this price: Gap +4pp

Under 208.5: -111consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated passing yards
average 225.7, median 221
The line
208.5

His last 5, passing yards

218v ARI2026 week 7
94v SEA2026 week 6
118v LAC2026 week 5
214v SF2026 week 4
183v LA2026 week 3

Every price is a captured market quote in American odds, labelled as such; our percentage and the gap to the market's sit behind the row's tap. A row's colour is our number against the price: green means we rate the row's own selection well above what the price says, red means the price rates it more than we do, white means the two are close. A row's last five counts his last five games in this market, most recent first, regular season and playoffs.

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