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Baltimore Ravens at Buffalo Bills

Week 8 · Sun Nov 1, 1:00 PM ET · Market line BUF -3 · total 54.5

How our calls did

Final: Baltimore Ravens 10, Buffalo Bills 36

Called before kickoff: 3. Lost 3.

Each called row carries the same stamp in its market below. The green or red down a row's side is still our read against the price before kickoff, not how it ended. Prices taken Sun 1 Nov, 11:05 UK.

Every market we price

27 rows on 4 markets, best first: tap a market to open it, tap a player for his numbers, the price behind his and what our read rests on.

Receiving yards110
Dawson Knox TE · BUF 8+ receiving yardsLost6 yds-111DraftKings

Dawson KnoxTE · BUFReceiving yards

How it ended: Lost, 6 yds. Called before kickoff, so it is in this game's count.

DataPitch 67% · Market 53%

Against this price: Gap +14pp

Under 7.5: -115DraftKings

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receiving yards
average 20.8, median 15
The line
7.5

His last 5, receiving yards

0v LV2026 week 6
6v LA2026 week 5
13v NE2026 week 4
5v LAC2026 week 3
5v DET2026 week 2
Joshua Palmer WR · BUF 10+ receiving yards-114DraftKings

Joshua PalmerWR · BUFReceiving yards

How it ended: Lost, 0 yds. Not called before kickoff, so it is not in this game's count.

DataPitch 61% · Market 53%

Against this price: Gap +8pp

Under 9.5: -111DraftKings

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receiving yards
average 22.4, median 17
The line
9.5

His last 5, receiving yards

37v LV2026 week 6
3v NE2026 week 4
43v DET2026 week 2
34v HOU2026 week 1
1v NYJ2025 week 18
More players (8)
Derrick Henry RB · BAL 7+ receiving yards-118consensus market price

Derrick HenryRB · BALReceiving yards

How it ended: Won, 7 yds. Not called before kickoff, so it is not in this game's count.

DataPitch 52% · Market 54%

Against this price: Gap -2pp

Under 6.5: -111consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receiving yards
average 11.2, median 7
The line
6.5

His last 5, receiving yards

4v CIN2026 week 7
2v CLE2026 week 6
18v ATL2026 week 5
6v TEN2026 week 4
0v DAL2026 week 3
James Cook III RB · BUF 10+ receiving yards-116Bet365

James Cook IIIRB · BUFReceiving yards

How it ended: Won, 21 yds. Not called before kickoff, so it is not in this game's count.

DataPitch 43% · Market 54%

Against this price: Gap -11pp

Under 9.5: -116Bet365

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receiving yards
average 12.9, median 7
The line
9.5

His last 5, receiving yards

58v LV2026 week 6
7v LA2026 week 5
8v NE2026 week 4
0v LAC2026 week 3
4v DET2026 week 2
Mark Andrews TE · BAL 28+ receiving yards-113consensus market price

Mark AndrewsTE · BALReceiving yards

How it ended: Lost, 14 yds. Not called before kickoff, so it is not in this game's count.

DataPitch 43% · Market 53%

Against this price: Gap -10pp

Under 27.5: -110consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receiving yards
average 28.2, median 24
The line
27.5

His last 5, receiving yards

23v CIN2026 week 7
4v CLE2026 week 6
28v ATL2026 week 5
27v TEN2026 week 4
24v DAL2026 week 3
Rashod Bateman WR · BAL 25+ receiving yards-115consensus market price

Rashod BatemanWR · BALReceiving yards

How it ended: Lost, 22 yds. Not called before kickoff, so it is not in this game's count.

DataPitch 36% · Market 54%

Against this price: Gap -18pp

Under 24.5: -111consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receiving yards
average 22, median 17
The line
24.5

His last 5, receiving yards

33v CIN2026 week 7
0v CLE2026 week 6
62v ATL2026 week 5
46v TEN2026 week 4
37v DAL2026 week 3
Khalil Shakir WR · BUF 42+ receiving yards-116Bet365

Khalil ShakirWR · BUFReceiving yards

How it ended: Won, 64 yds. Not called before kickoff, so it is not in this game's count.

DataPitch 35% · Market 54%

Against this price: Gap -19pp

Under 41.5: -116Bet365

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receiving yards
average 35.8, median 30
The line
41.5

His last 5, receiving yards

34v LV2026 week 6
80v LA2026 week 5
82v NE2026 week 4
6v LAC2026 week 3
38v DET2026 week 2
Keon Coleman WR · BUF 30+ receiving yards-114consensus market price

Keon ColemanWR · BUFReceiving yards

How it ended: Lost, 4 yds. Not called before kickoff, so it is not in this game's count.

DataPitch 29% · Market 53%

Against this price: Gap -24pp

Under 29.5: -115consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receiving yards
average 21.9, median 17
The line
29.5

His last 5, receiving yards

59v LV2026 week 6
7v LA2026 week 5
116v NE2026 week 4
37v LAC2026 week 3
63v DET2026 week 2
Zay Flowers WR · BAL 86+ receiving yards-115consensus market price

Zay FlowersWR · BALReceiving yards

How it ended: Lost, 0 yds. Not called before kickoff, so it is not in this game's count.

DataPitch 25% · Market 54%

Against this price: Gap -29pp

Under 85.5: +100consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receiving yards
average 62.7, median 57
The line
85.5

His last 5, receiving yards

137v CIN2026 week 7
66v CLE2026 week 6
53v ATL2026 week 5
118v TEN2026 week 4
84v DAL2026 week 3
DoubtfulDJ Moore WR · BUF 56+ receiving yards-116Bet365

DJ MooreWR · BUFReceiving yards

How it ended: Won, 82 yds. Not called before kickoff, so it is not in this game's count.

Doubtful: Questionable: Shoulder - AC Joint - Questionable for Week 8 vs. Baltimore

DataPitch 15% · Market 54%

Against this price: Gap -39pp

Under 55.5: -116Bet365

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receiving yards
average 28.4, median 22
The line
55.5

His last 5, receiving yards

11v NE2026 week 4
67v LAC2026 week 3
0v DET2026 week 2
100v HOU2026 week 1
52v LA2025 week 20
Receptions110
Dawson Knox TE · BUF 2+ receptionsLost1 reception+155Bet365

Dawson KnoxTE · BUFReceptions

How it ended: Lost, 1 reception. Called before kickoff, so it is in this game's count.

DataPitch 53% · Market 39%

Against this price: Gap +14pp

Under 1.5: -200Bet365

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receptions
average 1.9, median 2
The line
1.5

His last 5, receptions

1v LV2026 week 6
1v LA2026 week 5
2v NE2026 week 4
1v LAC2026 week 3
2v DET2026 week 2
Joshua Palmer WR · BUF 2+ receptions+172Bet365

Joshua PalmerWR · BUFReceptions

How it ended: Lost, 0 receptions. Not called before kickoff, so it is not in this game's count.

DataPitch 43% · Market 37%

Against this price: Gap +6pp

Under 1.5: -227Bet365

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receptions
average 1.5, median 1
The line
1.5

His last 5, receptions

1v LV2026 week 6
1v NE2026 week 4
1v DET2026 week 2
1v HOU2026 week 1
1v NYJ2025 week 18
More players (8)
Derrick Henry RB · BAL 2+ receptions+147DraftKings

Derrick HenryRB · BALReceptions

How it ended: Won, 2 receptions. Not called before kickoff, so it is not in this game's count.

DataPitch 38% · Market 41%

Against this price: Gap -3pp

Under 1.5: -192DraftKings

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receptions
average 1.4, median 1
The line
1.5

His last 5, receptions

1v CIN2026 week 7
1v CLE2026 week 6
1v ATL2026 week 5
2v TEN2026 week 4
1v DAL2026 week 3
Mark Andrews TE · BAL 4+ receptions+114DraftKings

Mark AndrewsTE · BALReceptions

How it ended: Lost, 3 receptions. Not called before kickoff, so it is not in this game's count.

DataPitch 38% · Market 47%

Against this price: Gap -9pp

Under 3.5: -147DraftKings

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receptions
average 3.1, median 3
The line
3.5

His last 5, receptions

3v CIN2026 week 7
1v CLE2026 week 6
4v ATL2026 week 5
5v TEN2026 week 4
3v DAL2026 week 3
Khalil Shakir WR · BUF 4+ receptions-143DraftKings

Khalil ShakirWR · BUFReceptions

How it ended: Won, 5 receptions. Not called before kickoff, so it is not in this game's count.

DataPitch 49% · Market 59%

Against this price: Gap -10pp

Under 3.5: +111DraftKings

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receptions
average 3.7, median 3
The line
3.5

His last 5, receptions

4v LV2026 week 6
3v LA2026 week 5
7v NE2026 week 4
1v LAC2026 week 3
3v DET2026 week 2
James Cook III RB · BUF 2+ receptions-119DraftKings

James Cook IIIRB · BUFReceptions

How it ended: Won, 2 receptions. Not called before kickoff, so it is not in this game's count.

DataPitch 39% · Market 54%

Against this price: Gap -15pp

Under 1.5: -109DraftKings

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receptions
average 1.4, median 1
The line
1.5

His last 5, receptions

3v LV2026 week 6
1v LA2026 week 5
2v NE2026 week 4
0v LAC2026 week 3
1v DET2026 week 2
Rashod Bateman WR · BAL 3+ receptions+136DraftKings

Rashod BatemanWR · BALReceptions

How it ended: Lost, 1 reception. Not called before kickoff, so it is not in this game's count.

DataPitch 24% · Market 42%

Against this price: Gap -18pp

Under 2.5: -175DraftKings

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receptions
average 1.7, median 1
The line
2.5

His last 5, receptions

2v CIN2026 week 7
0v CLE2026 week 6
5v ATL2026 week 5
2v TEN2026 week 4
2v DAL2026 week 3
Keon Coleman WR · BUF 3+ receptions+116DraftKings

Keon ColemanWR · BUFReceptions

How it ended: Lost, 1 reception. Not called before kickoff, so it is not in this game's count.

DataPitch 24% · Market 46%

Against this price: Gap -22pp

Under 2.5: -149DraftKings

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receptions
average 1.6, median 1
The line
2.5

His last 5, receptions

4v LV2026 week 6
1v LA2026 week 5
6v NE2026 week 4
1v LAC2026 week 3
6v DET2026 week 2
Zay Flowers WR · BAL 7+ receptions+120Bet365

Zay FlowersWR · BALReceptions

How it ended: Lost, 0 receptions. Not called before kickoff, so it is not in this game's count.

DataPitch 21% · Market 46%

Against this price: Gap -25pp

Under 6.5: -152Bet365

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receptions
average 4.6, median 4
The line
6.5

His last 5, receptions

8v CIN2026 week 7
6v CLE2026 week 6
8v ATL2026 week 5
8v TEN2026 week 4
5v DAL2026 week 3
DoubtfulDJ Moore WR · BUF 5+ receptions+120Bet365

DJ MooreWR · BUFReceptions

How it ended: Lost, 4 receptions. Not called before kickoff, so it is not in this game's count.

Doubtful: Questionable: Shoulder - AC Joint - Questionable for Week 8 vs. Baltimore

DataPitch 8% · Market 46%

Against this price: Gap -38pp

Under 4.5: -152Bet365

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receptions
average 2, median 2
The line
4.5

His last 5, receptions

1v NE2026 week 4
6v LAC2026 week 3
0v DET2026 week 2
5v HOU2026 week 1
5v LA2025 week 20
Rushing yards15
Derrick Henry RB · BAL 79+ rushing yardsLost53 yds-114consensus market price

Derrick HenryRB · BALRushing yards

How it ended: Lost, 53 yds. Called before kickoff, so it is in this game's count.

DataPitch 61% · Market 53%

Against this price: Gap +8pp

Under 78.5: -110consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated rushing yards
average 98.5, median 92
The line
78.5

His last 5, rushing yards

45v CIN2026 week 7
58v CLE2026 week 6
102v ATL2026 week 5
73v TEN2026 week 4
89v DAL2026 week 3
Ty Johnson RB · BUF 2+ rushing yards-118DraftKings

Ty JohnsonRB · BUFRushing yards

How it ended: Won, 4 yds. Not called before kickoff, so it is not in this game's count.

DataPitch 64% · Market 54%

Against this price: Gap +10pp

Under 1.5: -108DraftKings

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated rushing yards
average 12.1, median 6
The line
1.5

His last 5, rushing yards

3v LV2026 week 6
0v LA2026 week 5
3v NE2026 week 4
0v LAC2026 week 3
36v NYJ2025 week 18
More players (3)
James Cook III RB · BUF 86+ rushing yards-115consensus market price

James Cook IIIRB · BUFRushing yards

How it ended: Lost, 80 yds. Not called before kickoff, so it is not in this game's count.

DataPitch 56% · Market 54%

Against this price: Gap +2pp

Under 85.5: -113consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated rushing yards
average 99.4, median 93
The line
85.5

His last 5, rushing yards

95v LV2026 week 6
111v LA2026 week 5
75v NE2026 week 4
154v LAC2026 week 3
135v DET2026 week 2
Josh Allen QB · BUF 36+ rushing yards-112consensus market price

Josh AllenQB · BUFRushing yards

How it ended: Lost, 30 yds. Not called before kickoff, so it is not in this game's count.

DataPitch 34% · Market 53%

Against this price: Gap -19pp

Under 35.5: -113consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated rushing yards
average 31, median 25
The line
35.5

His last 5, rushing yards

1v LV2026 week 6
121v LA2026 week 5
4v NE2026 week 4
22v LAC2026 week 3
69v DET2026 week 2
DoubtfulLamar Jackson QB · BAL 26+ rushing yards-111consensus market price

Lamar JacksonQB · BALRushing yards

How it ended: Lost, 0 yds. Not called before kickoff, so it is not in this game's count.

Doubtful: Questionable: Ankle - Questionable for Week 8 at Buffalo

DataPitch 28% · Market 53%

Against this price: Gap -25pp

Under 25.5: -113consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated rushing yards
average 19.6, median 11
The line
25.5

His last 5, rushing yards

20v TEN2026 week 4
50v DAL2026 week 3
34v NO2026 week 2
40v IND2026 week 1
9v PIT2025 week 18
Passing yards2
DoubtfulLamar Jackson QB · BAL 239+ passing yards-114DraftKings

Lamar JacksonQB · BALPassing yards

How it ended: Lost, 0 yds. Not called before kickoff, so it is not in this game's count.

Doubtful: Questionable: Ankle - Questionable for Week 8 at Buffalo

DataPitch 35% · Market 53%

Against this price: Gap -18pp

Under 238.5: -111DraftKings

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated passing yards
average 215.2, median 209.5
The line
238.5

His last 5, passing yards

209v TEN2026 week 4
186v DAL2026 week 3
204v NO2026 week 2
304v IND2026 week 1
222v PIT2025 week 18
Josh Allen QB · BUF 249+ passing yards-111DraftKings

Josh AllenQB · BUFPassing yards

How it ended: Won, 289 yds. Not called before kickoff, so it is not in this game's count.

DataPitch 25% · Market 53%

Against this price: Gap -28pp

Under 248.5: -114DraftKings

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated passing yards
average 204.1, median 199
The line
248.5

His last 5, passing yards

242v LV2026 week 6
204v LA2026 week 5
249v NE2026 week 4
174v LAC2026 week 3
243v DET2026 week 2

Every price is a captured market quote in American odds, labelled as such; our percentage and the gap to the market's sit behind the row's tap. A row's colour is our number against the price: green means we rate the row's own selection well above what the price says, red means the price rates it more than we do, white means the two are close. A row's last five counts his last five games in this market, most recent first, regular season and playoffs.

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