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Atlanta Falcons at Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Week 8 · Sun Nov 1, 1:00 PM ET · Market line TB -1.5 · total 43.5

How our calls did

Final: Atlanta Falcons 0, Tampa Bay Buccaneers 16

Nothing on this game was called before kickoff, so it has no record.

Each called row carries the same stamp in its market below. The green or red down a row's side is still our read against the price before kickoff, not how it ended. Prices taken Sun 1 Nov, 11:05 UK.

Every market we price

30 rows on 4 markets, best first: tap a market to open it, tap a player for his numbers, the price behind his and what our read rests on.

Receiving yards11
Austin Hooper TE · ATL 6+ receiving yards-111DraftKings

Austin HooperTE · ATLReceiving yards

How it ended: Won, 9 yds. Not called before kickoff, so it is not in this game's count.

DataPitch 76% · Market 53%

Against this price: Gap +23pp

Under 5.5: -115DraftKings

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receiving yards
average 22.9, median 17
The line
5.5

His last 5, receiving yards

21v SF2026 week 7
6v CHI2026 week 6
9v NO2026 week 4
11v GB2026 week 3
20v CAR2026 week 2
Kenny Gainwell RB · TB 12+ receiving yards-110DraftKings

Kenny GainwellRB · TBReceiving yards

How it ended: Lost, 0 yds. Not called before kickoff, so it is not in this game's count.

DataPitch 55% · Market 52%

Against this price: Gap +3pp

Under 11.5: -116DraftKings

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receiving yards
average 17.9, median 13
The line
11.5

His last 5, receiving yards

0v CAR2026 week 7
7v PIT2026 week 6
10v DAL2026 week 5
22v GB2026 week 4
14v MIN2026 week 3
More players (9)
Cade Otton TE · TB 34+ receiving yards-115DraftKings

Cade OttonTE · TBReceiving yards

How it ended: Lost, 0 yds. Not called before kickoff, so it is not in this game's count.

DataPitch 53% · Market 54%

Against this price: Gap -1pp

Under 33.5: -111DraftKings

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receiving yards
average 41.1, median 36
The line
33.5

His last 5, receiving yards

0v CAR2026 week 7
4v PIT2026 week 6
25v DAL2026 week 5
37v GB2026 week 4
56v MIN2026 week 3
DoubtfulOlamide Zaccheaus WR · ATL 10+ receiving yards-116Bet365

Olamide ZaccheausWR · ATLReceiving yards

How it ended: Lost, 4 yds. Not called before kickoff, so it is not in this game's count.

Doubtful: Questionable: Shoulder - Questionable for Week 8 at Tampa Bay

DataPitch 53% · Market 54%

Against this price: Gap -1pp

Under 9.5: -116Bet365

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receiving yards
average 15.2, median 11
The line
9.5

His last 5, receiving yards

0v CHI2026 week 6
0v BAL2026 week 5
0v NO2026 week 4
9v GB2026 week 3
3v CAR2026 week 2
Bucky Irving RB · TB 17+ receiving yards-116Bet365

Bucky IrvingRB · TBReceiving yards

How it ended: Lost, 0 yds. Not called before kickoff, so it is not in this game's count.

DataPitch 46% · Market 54%

Against this price: Gap -8pp

Under 16.5: -116Bet365

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receiving yards
average 20.3, median 15
The line
16.5

His last 5, receiving yards

4v CAR2026 week 7
3v PIT2026 week 6
10v DAL2026 week 5
0v GB2026 week 4
12v MIN2026 week 3
Kyle Pitts Sr. TE · ATL 36+ receiving yards-114DraftKings

Kyle Pitts Sr.TE · ATLReceiving yards

How it ended: Lost, 6 yds. Not called before kickoff, so it is not in this game's count.

DataPitch 43% · Market 53%

Against this price: Gap -10pp

Under 35.5: -111DraftKings

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receiving yards
average 35.7, median 30
The line
35.5

His last 5, receiving yards

22v SF2026 week 7
60v CHI2026 week 6
42v BAL2026 week 5
47v NO2026 week 4
5v GB2026 week 3
Chris Godwin Jr. WR · TB 40+ receiving yards-116Bet365

Chris Godwin Jr.WR · TBReceiving yards

How it ended: Lost, 0 yds. Not called before kickoff, so it is not in this game's count.

DataPitch 37% · Market 54%

Against this price: Gap -17pp

Under 39.5: -116Bet365

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receiving yards
average 36, median 30
The line
39.5

His last 5, receiving yards

27v CAR2026 week 7
37v PIT2026 week 6
37v DAL2026 week 5
31v GB2026 week 4
25v MIN2026 week 3
DoubtfulEmeka Egbuka WR · TB 50+ receiving yards-115consensus market price

Emeka EgbukaWR · TBReceiving yards

How it ended: Void, did not play. Not called before kickoff, so it is not in this game's count.

Doubtful: Questionable: Concussion - Questionable for Week 8 vs. Atlanta

DataPitch 36% · Market 54%

Against this price: Gap -18pp

Under 49.5: -114consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receiving yards
average 43.4, median 37
The line
49.5

His last 5, receiving yards

48v PIT2026 week 6
38v DAL2026 week 5
13v GB2026 week 4
62v MIN2026 week 3
16v CLE2026 week 2
Bijan Robinson RB · ATL 32+ receiving yards-112DraftKings

Bijan RobinsonRB · ATLReceiving yards

How it ended: Lost, 0 yds. Not called before kickoff, so it is not in this game's count.

DataPitch 34% · Market 53%

Against this price: Gap -19pp

Under 31.5: -112DraftKings

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receiving yards
average 27.2, median 21
The line
31.5

His last 5, receiving yards

59v SF2026 week 7
-8v CHI2026 week 6
32v BAL2026 week 5
2v NO2026 week 4
19v GB2026 week 3
Jahan Dotson WR · ATL 25+ receiving yards-111DraftKings

Jahan DotsonWR · ATLReceiving yards

How it ended: Won, 95 yds. Not called before kickoff, so it is not in this game's count.

DataPitch 30% · Market 53%

Against this price: Gap -23pp

Under 24.5: -115DraftKings

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receiving yards
average 18.8, median 11
The line
24.5

His last 5, receiving yards

6v SF2026 week 7
87v CHI2026 week 6
54v BAL2026 week 5
54v NO2026 week 4
11v GB2026 week 3
Drake London WR · ATL 80+ receiving yards-110consensus market price

Drake LondonWR · ATLReceiving yards

How it ended: Lost, 8 yds. Not called before kickoff, so it is not in this game's count.

DataPitch 10% · Market 52%

Against this price: Gap -42pp

Under 79.5: -112consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receiving yards
average 38.5, median 33
The line
79.5

His last 5, receiving yards

66v SF2026 week 7
62v CHI2026 week 6
118v BAL2026 week 5
96v NO2026 week 4
194v GB2026 week 3
Receptions11
Austin Hooper TE · ATL 1+ receptions-192Bet365

Austin HooperTE · ATLReceptions

How it ended: Won, 1 reception. Not called before kickoff, so it is not in this game's count.

DataPitch 76% · Market 66%

Against this price: Gap +10pp

Under 0.5: +150Bet365

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receptions
average 1.7, median 1
The line
0.5

His last 5, receptions

2v SF2026 week 7
1v CHI2026 week 6
1v NO2026 week 4
2v GB2026 week 3
2v CAR2026 week 2
DoubtfulOlamide Zaccheaus WR · ATL 2+ receptions+160Bet365

Olamide ZaccheausWR · ATLReceptions

How it ended: Lost, 1 reception. Not called before kickoff, so it is not in this game's count.

Doubtful: Questionable: Shoulder - Questionable for Week 8 at Tampa Bay

DataPitch 46% · Market 39%

Against this price: Gap +7pp

Under 1.5: -213Bet365

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receptions
average 1.7, median 1
The line
1.5

His last 5, receptions

0v CHI2026 week 6
0v BAL2026 week 5
0v NO2026 week 4
2v GB2026 week 3
1v CAR2026 week 2
More players (9)
Cade Otton TE · TB 4+ receptions+105Bet365

Cade OttonTE · TBReceptions

How it ended: Lost, 0 receptions. Not called before kickoff, so it is not in this game's count.

DataPitch 55% · Market 49%

Against this price: Gap +6pp

Under 3.5: -135Bet365

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receptions
average 4.1, median 4
The line
3.5

His last 5, receptions

0v CAR2026 week 7
1v PIT2026 week 6
3v DAL2026 week 5
4v GB2026 week 4
3v MIN2026 week 3
Kenny Gainwell RB · TB 2+ receptions-139DraftKings

Kenny GainwellRB · TBReceptions

How it ended: Lost, 0 receptions. Not called before kickoff, so it is not in this game's count.

DataPitch 59% · Market 58%

Against this price: Gap +1pp

Under 1.5: +107DraftKings

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receptions
average 2.3, median 2
The line
1.5

His last 5, receptions

0v CAR2026 week 7
1v PIT2026 week 6
3v DAL2026 week 5
2v GB2026 week 4
2v MIN2026 week 3
Kyle Pitts Sr. TE · ATL 4+ receptions-116Bet365

Kyle Pitts Sr.TE · ATLReceptions

How it ended: Lost, 2 receptions. Not called before kickoff, so it is not in this game's count.

DataPitch 39% · Market 54%

Against this price: Gap -15pp

Under 3.5: -116Bet365

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receptions
average 3.2, median 3
The line
3.5

His last 5, receptions

5v SF2026 week 7
5v CHI2026 week 6
5v BAL2026 week 5
3v NO2026 week 4
1v GB2026 week 3
Bucky Irving RB · TB 3+ receptions-152DraftKings

Bucky IrvingRB · TBReceptions

How it ended: Lost, 0 receptions. Not called before kickoff, so it is not in this game's count.

DataPitch 38% · Market 60%

Against this price: Gap -22pp

Under 2.5: +118DraftKings

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receptions
average 2.3, median 2
The line
2.5

His last 5, receptions

1v CAR2026 week 7
2v PIT2026 week 6
2v DAL2026 week 5
0v GB2026 week 4
2v MIN2026 week 3
Chris Godwin Jr. WR · TB 5+ receptions-105Bet365

Chris Godwin Jr.WR · TBReceptions

How it ended: Lost, 0 receptions. Not called before kickoff, so it is not in this game's count.

DataPitch 28% · Market 51%

Against this price: Gap -23pp

Under 4.5: -125Bet365

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receptions
average 3.5, median 3
The line
4.5

His last 5, receptions

4v CAR2026 week 7
4v PIT2026 week 6
3v DAL2026 week 5
6v GB2026 week 4
3v MIN2026 week 3
Jahan Dotson WR · ATL 3+ receptions+150Bet365

Jahan DotsonWR · ATLReceptions

How it ended: Lost, 2 receptions. Not called before kickoff, so it is not in this game's count.

DataPitch 16% · Market 40%

Against this price: Gap -24pp

Under 2.5: -192Bet365

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receptions
average 1.2, median 1
The line
2.5

His last 5, receptions

1v SF2026 week 7
3v CHI2026 week 6
2v BAL2026 week 5
2v NO2026 week 4
1v GB2026 week 3
Bijan Robinson RB · ATL 4+ receptions-167Bet365

Bijan RobinsonRB · ATLReceptions

How it ended: Lost, 0 receptions. Not called before kickoff, so it is not in this game's count.

DataPitch 32% · Market 63%

Against this price: Gap -31pp

Under 3.5: +130Bet365

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receptions
average 2.8, median 2
The line
3.5

His last 5, receptions

5v SF2026 week 7
2v CHI2026 week 6
4v BAL2026 week 5
1v NO2026 week 4
2v GB2026 week 3
DoubtfulEmeka Egbuka WR · TB 5+ receptions+100consensus market price

Emeka EgbukaWR · TBReceptions

How it ended: Void, did not play. Not called before kickoff, so it is not in this game's count.

Doubtful: Questionable: Concussion - Questionable for Week 8 vs. Atlanta

DataPitch 18% · Market 50%

Against this price: Gap -32pp

Under 4.5: -130consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receptions
average 2.8, median 3
The line
4.5

His last 5, receptions

7v PIT2026 week 6
6v DAL2026 week 5
2v GB2026 week 4
5v MIN2026 week 3
3v CLE2026 week 2
Drake London WR · ATL 7+ receptions+110Bet365

Drake LondonWR · ATLReceptions

How it ended: Lost, 1 reception. Not called before kickoff, so it is not in this game's count.

DataPitch 4% · Market 48%

Against this price: Gap -44pp

Under 6.5: -141Bet365

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receptions
average 2.7, median 2
The line
6.5

His last 5, receptions

7v SF2026 week 7
4v CHI2026 week 6
7v BAL2026 week 5
5v NO2026 week 4
9v GB2026 week 3
Rushing yards6
Sean Tucker RB · TB 7+ rushing yards-113consensus market price

Sean TuckerRB · TBRushing yards

How it ended: Lost, 0 yds. Not called before kickoff, so it is not in this game's count.

DataPitch 53% · Market 53%

Against this price: Gap +0pp

Under 6.5: -115consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated rushing yards
average 13.3, median 8
The line
6.5

His last 5, rushing yards

52v CAR2026 week 7
18v DAL2026 week 5
10v GB2026 week 4
-4v CAR2025 week 18
8v MIA2025 week 17
Kenny Gainwell RB · TB 15+ rushing yards-115DraftKings

Kenny GainwellRB · TBRushing yards

How it ended: Won, 140 yds. Not called before kickoff, so it is not in this game's count.

DataPitch 46% · Market 54%

Against this price: Gap -8pp

Under 14.5: -111DraftKings

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated rushing yards
average 19.9, median 13
The line
14.5

His last 5, rushing yards

88v CAR2026 week 7
17v PIT2026 week 6
18v DAL2026 week 5
5v GB2026 week 4
-4v MIN2026 week 3
More players (4)
Michael Penix Jr. QB · ATL 3+ rushing yards-116Bet365

Michael Penix Jr.QB · ATLRushing yards

How it ended: Won, 11 yds. Not called before kickoff, so it is not in this game's count.

DataPitch 44% · Market 54%

Against this price: Gap -10pp

Under 2.5: -116Bet365

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated rushing yards
average 7.6, median 1
The line
2.5

His last 5, rushing yards

-1v SF2026 week 7
1v CHI2026 week 6
8v BAL2026 week 5
-2v NO2026 week 4
-2v GB2026 week 3
Bijan Robinson RB · ATL 81+ rushing yards-115consensus market price

Bijan RobinsonRB · ATLRushing yards

How it ended: Lost, 76 yds. Not called before kickoff, so it is not in this game's count.

DataPitch 42% · Market 54%

Against this price: Gap -12pp

Under 80.5: -114consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated rushing yards
average 78.2, median 72
The line
80.5

His last 5, rushing yards

63v SF2026 week 7
61v CHI2026 week 6
86v BAL2026 week 5
145v NO2026 week 4
194v GB2026 week 3
Bucky Irving RB · TB 70+ rushing yards-105Bet365

Bucky IrvingRB · TBRushing yards

How it ended: Won, 170 yds. Not called before kickoff, so it is not in this game's count.

DataPitch 32% · Market 51%

Against this price: Gap -19pp

Under 69.5: -125Bet365

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated rushing yards
average 58.3, median 52
The line
69.5

His last 5, rushing yards

106v CAR2026 week 7
46v PIT2026 week 6
165v DAL2026 week 5
61v GB2026 week 4
46v MIN2026 week 3
Baker Mayfield QB · TB 17+ rushing yards-116Bet365

Baker MayfieldQB · TBRushing yards

How it ended: Lost, 14 yds. Not called before kickoff, so it is not in this game's count.

DataPitch 23% · Market 54%

Against this price: Gap -31pp

Under 16.5: -116Bet365

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated rushing yards
average 11.2, median 5
The line
16.5

His last 5, rushing yards

1v CAR2026 week 7
6v MIN2026 week 3
29v CLE2026 week 2
30v CIN2026 week 1
31v CAR2025 week 18
Passing yards2
Baker Mayfield QB · TB 212+ passing yards-114DraftKings

Baker MayfieldQB · TBPassing yards

How it ended: Lost, 0 yds. Not called before kickoff, so it is not in this game's count.

DataPitch 55% · Market 53%

Against this price: Gap +2pp

Under 211.5: -111DraftKings

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated passing yards
average 226.2, median 220
The line
211.5

His last 5, passing yards

64v CAR2026 week 7
186v MIN2026 week 3
176v CLE2026 week 2
193v CIN2026 week 1
198v CAR2025 week 18
Michael Penix Jr. QB · ATL 230+ passing yards-107consensus market price

Michael Penix Jr.QB · ATLPassing yards

How it ended: Lost, 125 yds. Not called before kickoff, so it is not in this game's count.

DataPitch 47% · Market 52%

Against this price: Gap -5pp

Under 229.5: -114consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated passing yards
average 228.9, median 223
The line
229.5

His last 5, passing yards

213v SF2026 week 7
198v CHI2026 week 6
223v BAL2026 week 5
215v NO2026 week 4
258v GB2026 week 3

Every price is a captured market quote in American odds, labelled as such; our percentage and the gap to the market's sit behind the row's tap. A row's colour is our number against the price: green means we rate the row's own selection well above what the price says, red means the price rates it more than we do, white means the two are close. A row's last five counts his last five games in this market, most recent first, regular season and playoffs.

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