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Arizona Cardinals at Dallas Cowboys

Week 8 · Sun Nov 1, 1:00 PM ET · Market line DAL -7 · total 54.5

How our calls did

Final: Arizona Cardinals 33, Dallas Cowboys 30

Called before kickoff: 1. Won 1.

Each called row carries the same stamp in its market below. The green or red down a row's side is still our read against the price before kickoff, not how it ended. Prices taken Sun 1 Nov, 11:05 UK.

Every market we price

26 rows on 4 markets, best first: tap a market to open it, tap a player for his numbers, the price behind his and what our read rests on.

Receiving yards18
Michael Wilson WR · ARI 58+ receiving yardsWon111 yds-118consensus market price

Michael WilsonWR · ARIReceiving yards

How it ended: Won, 111 yds. Called before kickoff, so it is in this game's count.

DataPitch 61% · Market 54%

Against this price: Gap +7pp

Under 57.5: -115consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receiving yards
average 75.8, median 70
The line
57.5

His last 5, receiving yards

55v DEN2026 week 7
32v LA2026 week 6
30v DET2026 week 5
95v NYG2026 week 4
89v SF2026 week 3
Ryan Flournoy WR · DAL 37+ receiving yards-122consensus market price

Ryan FlournoyWR · DALReceiving yards

How it ended: Won, 38 yds. Not called before kickoff, so it is not in this game's count.

DataPitch 68% · Market 55%

Against this price: Gap +13pp

Under 36.5: -114consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receiving yards
average 57, median 51
The line
36.5

His last 5, receiving yards

70v PHI2026 week 7
40v GB2026 week 6
90v TB2026 week 5
37v HOU2026 week 4
22v BAL2026 week 3
More players (6)
Kendrick Bourne WR · ARI 37+ receiving yards-116Bet365

Kendrick BourneWR · ARIReceiving yards

How it ended: Lost, 29 yds. Not called before kickoff, so it is not in this game's count.

DataPitch 57% · Market 54%

Against this price: Gap +3pp

Under 36.5: -116Bet365

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receiving yards
average 48.2, median 41
The line
36.5

His last 5, receiving yards

9v DEN2026 week 7
47v LA2026 week 6
70v DET2026 week 5
22v SF2026 week 3
11v SEA2026 week 2
George Pickens WR · DAL 66+ receiving yards-115consensus market price

George PickensWR · DALReceiving yards

How it ended: Lost, 48 yds. Not called before kickoff, so it is not in this game's count.

DataPitch 55% · Market 54%

Against this price: Gap +1pp

Under 65.5: -113consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receiving yards
average 77.2, median 71
The line
65.5

His last 5, receiving yards

57v PHI2026 week 7
73v GB2026 week 6
130v TB2026 week 5
75v HOU2026 week 4
82v BAL2026 week 3
Elijah Higgins TE · ARI 18+ receiving yards-114consensus market price

Elijah HigginsTE · ARIReceiving yards

How it ended: Lost, 10 yds. Not called before kickoff, so it is not in this game's count.

DataPitch 51% · Market 53%

Against this price: Gap -2pp

Under 17.5: -116consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receiving yards
average 24.2, median 18
The line
17.5

His last 5, receiving yards

17v DEN2026 week 7
28v LA2026 week 6
57v DET2026 week 5
19v NYG2026 week 4
20v SF2026 week 3
Javonte Williams RB · DAL 12+ receiving yards-105DraftKings

Javonte WilliamsRB · DALReceiving yards

How it ended: Lost, 1 yds. Not called before kickoff, so it is not in this game's count.

DataPitch 46% · Market 51%

Against this price: Gap -5pp

Under 11.5: -119DraftKings

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receiving yards
average 13.8, median 10
The line
11.5

His last 5, receiving yards

0v PHI2026 week 7
9v GB2026 week 6
17v TB2026 week 5
21v HOU2026 week 4
5v BAL2026 week 3
Trey McBride TE · ARI 75+ receiving yards-111DraftKings

Trey McBrideTE · ARIReceiving yards

How it ended: Lost, 72 yds. Not called before kickoff, so it is not in this game's count.

DataPitch 38% · Market 53%

Against this price: Gap -15pp

Under 74.5: -115DraftKings

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receiving yards
average 67.9, median 62
The line
74.5

His last 5, receiving yards

111v DEN2026 week 7
53v LA2026 week 6
66v DET2026 week 5
31v NYG2026 week 4
75v SF2026 week 3
CeeDee Lamb WR · DAL 81+ receiving yards-116Bet365

CeeDee LambWR · DALReceiving yards

How it ended: Lost, 58 yds. Not called before kickoff, so it is not in this game's count.

DataPitch 34% · Market 54%

Against this price: Gap -20pp

Under 80.5: -116Bet365

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receiving yards
average 69.2, median 63
The line
80.5

His last 5, receiving yards

74v PHI2026 week 7
70v GB2026 week 6
9v TB2026 week 5
189v HOU2026 week 4
112v BAL2026 week 3
Receptions8
Ryan Flournoy WR · DAL 4+ receptions+120Bet365

Ryan FlournoyWR · DALReceptions

How it ended: Lost, 3 receptions. Not called before kickoff, so it is not in this game's count.

DataPitch 61% · Market 46%

Against this price: Gap +15pp

Under 3.5: -152Bet365

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receptions
average 4.5, median 4
The line
3.5

His last 5, receptions

4v PHI2026 week 7
7v GB2026 week 6
3v TB2026 week 5
4v HOU2026 week 4
2v BAL2026 week 3
George Pickens WR · DAL 5+ receptions-111DraftKings

George PickensWR · DALReceptions

How it ended: Lost, 2 receptions. Not called before kickoff, so it is not in this game's count.

DataPitch 56% · Market 53%

Against this price: Gap +3pp

Under 4.5: -116DraftKings

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receptions
average 5.2, median 5
The line
4.5

His last 5, receptions

4v PHI2026 week 7
6v GB2026 week 6
9v TB2026 week 5
2v HOU2026 week 4
7v BAL2026 week 3
More players (6)
Michael Wilson WR · ARI 5+ receptions-123DraftKings

Michael WilsonWR · ARIReceptions

How it ended: Won, 8 receptions. Not called before kickoff, so it is not in this game's count.

DataPitch 57% · Market 55%

Against this price: Gap +2pp

Under 4.5: -104DraftKings

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receptions
average 5.3, median 5
The line
4.5

His last 5, receptions

4v DEN2026 week 7
4v LA2026 week 6
4v DET2026 week 5
7v NYG2026 week 4
11v SF2026 week 3
Elijah Higgins TE · ARI 3+ receptions+145DraftKings

Elijah HigginsTE · ARIReceptions

How it ended: Lost, 2 receptions. Not called before kickoff, so it is not in this game's count.

DataPitch 37% · Market 41%

Against this price: Gap -4pp

Under 2.5: -189DraftKings

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receptions
average 2.3, median 2
The line
2.5

His last 5, receptions

3v DEN2026 week 7
3v LA2026 week 6
3v DET2026 week 5
2v NYG2026 week 4
3v SF2026 week 3
Kendrick Bourne WR · ARI 4+ receptions-105Bet365

Kendrick BourneWR · ARIReceptions

How it ended: Lost, 1 reception. Not called before kickoff, so it is not in this game's count.

DataPitch 41% · Market 51%

Against this price: Gap -10pp

Under 3.5: -125Bet365

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receptions
average 3.3, median 3
The line
3.5

His last 5, receptions

3v DEN2026 week 7
5v LA2026 week 6
5v DET2026 week 5
2v SF2026 week 3
2v SEA2026 week 2
Javonte Williams RB · DAL 2+ receptions-161Bet365

Javonte WilliamsRB · DALReceptions

How it ended: Lost, 1 reception. Not called before kickoff, so it is not in this game's count.

DataPitch 51% · Market 62%

Against this price: Gap -11pp

Under 1.5: +125Bet365

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receptions
average 1.9, median 2
The line
1.5

His last 5, receptions

0v PHI2026 week 7
2v GB2026 week 6
2v TB2026 week 5
5v HOU2026 week 4
2v BAL2026 week 3
Trey McBride TE · ARI 8+ receptions-123DraftKings

Trey McBrideTE · ARIReceptions

How it ended: Lost, 7 receptions. Not called before kickoff, so it is not in this game's count.

DataPitch 35% · Market 55%

Against this price: Gap -20pp

Under 7.5: -104DraftKings

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receptions
average 6.6, median 6
The line
7.5

His last 5, receptions

10v DEN2026 week 7
7v LA2026 week 6
9v DET2026 week 5
7v NYG2026 week 4
9v SF2026 week 3
CeeDee Lamb WR · DAL 7+ receptions-115DraftKings

CeeDee LambWR · DALReceptions

How it ended: Won, 7 receptions. Not called before kickoff, so it is not in this game's count.

DataPitch 24% · Market 54%

Against this price: Gap -30pp

Under 6.5: -111DraftKings

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receptions
average 4.9, median 5
The line
6.5

His last 5, receptions

5v PHI2026 week 7
9v GB2026 week 6
2v TB2026 week 5
17v HOU2026 week 4
7v BAL2026 week 3
Rushing yards8
Tyler Allgeier RB · ARI 14+ rushing yards-109DraftKings

Tyler AllgeierRB · ARIRushing yards

How it ended: Won, 147 yds. Not called before kickoff, so it is not in this game's count.

DataPitch 56% · Market 52%

Against this price: Gap +4pp

Under 13.5: -116DraftKings

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated rushing yards
average 22.3, median 16
The line
13.5

His last 5, rushing yards

19v DEN2026 week 7
38v LA2026 week 6
7v DET2026 week 5
42v NYG2026 week 4
-1v SF2026 week 3
Bam Knight RB · ARI 20+ rushing yards-112consensus market price

Bam KnightRB · ARIRushing yards

How it ended: Lost, 8 yds. Not called before kickoff, so it is not in this game's count.

DataPitch 46% · Market 53%

Against this price: Gap -7pp

Under 19.5: -111consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated rushing yards
average 24.7, median 18
The line
19.5

His last 5, rushing yards

48v DEN2026 week 7
80v LA2026 week 6
8v DET2026 week 5
24v SEA2026 week 2
-2v HOU2025 week 15
More players (6)
Javonte Williams RB · DAL 77+ rushing yards-114consensus market price

Javonte WilliamsRB · DALRushing yards

How it ended: Lost, 56 yds. Not called before kickoff, so it is not in this game's count.

DataPitch 34% · Market 53%

Against this price: Gap -19pp

Under 76.5: -114consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated rushing yards
average 65.4, median 58
The line
76.5

His last 5, rushing yards

155v PHI2026 week 7
41v GB2026 week 6
45v TB2026 week 5
62v HOU2026 week 4
98v BAL2026 week 3
DoubtfulJeremiyah Love RB · ARI 44+ rushing yards-114DraftKings

Jeremiyah LoveRB · ARIRushing yards

How it ended: Lost, 23 yds. Not called before kickoff, so it is not in this game's count.

Doubtful: Questionable: Ankle - Questionable for Week 8 at Dallas

DataPitch 31% · Market 53%

Against this price: Gap -22pp

Under 43.5: -111DraftKings

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated rushing yards
average 35.5, median 30
The line
43.5

His last 5, rushing yards

22v DET2026 week 5
63v NYG2026 week 4
90v SF2026 week 3
29v SEA2026 week 2
41v LAC2026 week 1
Jacoby Brissett QB · ARI 10+ rushing yards-115DraftKings

Jacoby BrissettQB · ARIRushing yards

How it ended: Lost, 7 yds. Not called before kickoff, so it is not in this game's count.

DataPitch 27% · Market 54%

Against this price: Gap -27pp

Under 9.5: -111DraftKings

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated rushing yards
average 7.8, median 3
The line
9.5

His last 5, rushing yards

16v DEN2026 week 7
2v LA2026 week 6
19v DET2026 week 5
18v NYG2026 week 4
4v SF2026 week 3
Dak Prescott QB · DAL 9+ rushing yards-112DraftKings

Dak PrescottQB · DALRushing yards

How it ended: Won, 20 yds. Not called before kickoff, so it is not in this game's count.

DataPitch 26% · Market 53%

Against this price: Gap -27pp

Under 8.5: -112DraftKings

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated rushing yards
average 7.5, median 1
The line
8.5

His last 5, rushing yards

8v PHI2026 week 7
7v GB2026 week 6
0v TB2026 week 5
7v HOU2026 week 4
19v BAL2026 week 3
Tyler Goodson RB · DAL 20+ rushing yards-104consensus market price

Tyler GoodsonRB · DALRushing yards

How it ended: Lost, 14 yds. Not called before kickoff, so it is not in this game's count.

DataPitch 24% · Market 51%

Against this price: Gap -27pp

Under 19.5: -113consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated rushing yards
average 12.7, median 5
The line
19.5

His last 5, rushing yards

38v PHI2026 week 7
0v GB2026 week 6
12v HOU2026 week 4
22v BAL2026 week 3
3v HOU2025 week 18
Michael Wilson WR · ARI 1+ rushing yards+100consensus market price

Michael WilsonWR · ARIRushing yards

How it ended: Won, 17 yds. Not called before kickoff, so it is not in this game's count.

DataPitch 7% · Market 50%

Against this price: Gap -43pp

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated rushing yards
average 0.8, median 0
The line
0.5

His last 5, rushing yards

11v DEN2026 week 7
0v LA2026 week 6
0v DET2026 week 5
0v NYG2026 week 4
0v SF2026 week 3
Passing yards2
Dak Prescott QB · DAL 272+ passing yards-111DraftKings

Dak PrescottQB · DALPassing yards

How it ended: Lost, 195 yds. Not called before kickoff, so it is not in this game's count.

DataPitch 45% · Market 53%

Against this price: Gap -8pp

Under 271.5: -114DraftKings

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated passing yards
average 266.5, median 261
The line
271.5

His last 5, passing yards

212v PHI2026 week 7
255v GB2026 week 6
316v TB2026 week 5
324v HOU2026 week 4
269v BAL2026 week 3
Jacoby Brissett QB · ARI 259+ passing yards-113consensus market price

Jacoby BrissettQB · ARIPassing yards

How it ended: Lost, 119 yds. Not called before kickoff, so it is not in this game's count.

DataPitch 44% · Market 53%

Against this price: Gap -9pp

Under 258.5: -113consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated passing yards
average 251.4, median 247
The line
258.5

His last 5, passing yards

259v DEN2026 week 7
218v LA2026 week 6
264v DET2026 week 5
147v NYG2026 week 4
272v SF2026 week 3

Every price is a captured market quote in American odds, labelled as such; our percentage and the gap to the market's sit behind the row's tap. A row's colour is our number against the price: green means we rate the row's own selection well above what the price says, red means the price rates it more than we do, white means the two are close. A row's last five counts his last five games in this market, most recent first, regular season and playoffs.

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