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Seattle Seahawks at Denver Broncos

Week 6 · Thu Oct 15, 8:15 PM ET · Market line DEN +3 · total 40.5

Our read on this game

3 of the 32 rows we price on this game are strong tonight, and all of them are Denver Broncos players.

Strongest of themCourtland SuttonWR · DEN32+ receiving yards-115consensus market price

Prices taken Wed 14 Oct, 10:17 UK. 6 rows on this game carry a doubtful man, marked on the row and with the reason behind its tap.

Every market we price

Called before kickoff: 3. Pending 3.

32 rows on 4 markets, best first: tap a market to open it, tap a player for his numbers, the price behind his and what our read rests on.

Receiving yards111
Courtland Sutton WR · DEN 32+ receiving yards-115consensus market price

Courtland SuttonWR · DENReceiving yards

DataPitch 70% · Market 54%

Against this price: Gap +16pp

Under 31.5: -112consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receiving yards
average 53.8, median 47
The line
31.5

His last 5, receiving yards

18v LAC2026 week 5
4v SF2026 week 4
46v LA2026 week 3
25v JAX2026 week 2
11v KC2026 week 1
Marvin Mims Jr. WR · DEN 12+ receiving yards-114consensus market price

Marvin Mims Jr.WR · DENReceiving yards

DataPitch 83% · Market 53%

Against this price: Gap +30pp

Under 11.5: -114consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receiving yards
average 42.8, median 36
The line
11.5

His last 5, receiving yards

6v LAC2026 week 5
10v SF2026 week 4
0v KC2026 week 1
62v NE2025 week 21
93v BUF2025 week 20
More players (9)
Tory Horton WR · SEA 5+ receiving yards-118consensus market price

Tory HortonWR · SEAReceiving yards

DataPitch 80% · Market 54%

Against this price: Gap +26pp

Under 4.5: -110consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receiving yards
average 26, median 21
The line
4.5

His last 5, receiving yards

6v LAC2026 week 4
48v WAS2026 week 3
48v WAS2025 week 9
0v HOU2025 week 7
0v JAX2025 week 6
Cooper Kupp WR · SEA 21+ receiving yards-116consensus market price

Cooper KuppWR · SEAReceiving yards

DataPitch 76% · Market 54%

Against this price: Gap +22pp

Under 20.5: -114consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receiving yards
average 43.5, median 38
The line
20.5

His last 5, receiving yards

15v SF2026 week 5
13v LAC2026 week 4
46v WAS2026 week 3
20v ARI2026 week 2
35v NE2026 week 1
Troy Franklin WR · DEN 17+ receiving yards-115consensus market price

Troy FranklinWR · DENReceiving yards

DataPitch 70% · Market 54%

Against this price: Gap +16pp

Under 16.5: -114consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receiving yards
average 32.9, median 27
The line
16.5

His last 5, receiving yards

16v LAC2026 week 5
21v LA2026 week 3
27v JAX2026 week 2
0v KC2026 week 1
0v LAC2025 week 18
J.K. Dobbins RB · DEN 7+ receiving yards-107consensus market price

J.K. DobbinsRB · DENReceiving yards

DataPitch 49% · Market 52%

Against this price: Gap -3pp

Under 6.5: -112consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receiving yards
average 10.1, median 6
The line
6.5

His last 5, receiving yards

6v LAC2026 week 5
12v SF2026 week 4
4v LA2026 week 3
0v JAX2026 week 2
0v KC2026 week 1
DoubtfulRJ Harvey RB · DEN 21+ receiving yards-115consensus market price

RJ HarveyRB · DENReceiving yards

Doubtful: his rushing yards line fell 20.5 to 14.5 between the open and the close, 29% at consensus: the market is pricing him down

DataPitch 49% · Market 54%

Against this price: Gap -5pp

Under 20.5: -111consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receiving yards
average 24.8, median 20
The line
20.5

His last 5, receiving yards

0v LAC2026 week 5
68v SF2026 week 4
41v LA2026 week 3
23v KC2026 week 1
22v NE2025 week 21
DoubtfulJaxon Smith-Njigba WR · SEA 93+ receiving yards-115consensus market price

Jaxon Smith-NjigbaWR · SEAReceiving yards

Doubtful: Questionable: Ankle - Questionable for Week 6 at Denver

DataPitch 47% · Market 54%

Against this price: Gap -7pp

Under 92.5: -116consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receiving yards
average 94.7, median 89
The line
92.5

His last 5, receiving yards

102v SF2026 week 5
76v LAC2026 week 4
128v WAS2026 week 3
155v ARI2026 week 2
122v NE2026 week 1
Rashid Shaheed WR · SEA 23+ receiving yards-112consensus market price

Rashid ShaheedWR · SEAReceiving yards

DataPitch 41% · Market 53%

Against this price: Gap -12pp

Under 22.5: -115consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receiving yards
average 23.2, median 18
The line
22.5

His last 5, receiving yards

23v SF2026 week 5
20v LAC2026 week 4
14v WAS2026 week 3
35v ARI2026 week 2
4v NE2026 week 1
AJ Barner TE · SEA 24+ receiving yards-120consensus market price

AJ BarnerTE · SEAReceiving yards

DataPitch 40% · Market 55%

Against this price: Gap -15pp

Under 23.5: -110consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receiving yards
average 23.1, median 19
The line
23.5

His last 5, receiving yards

20v SF2026 week 5
12v LAC2026 week 4
69v WAS2026 week 3
8v ARI2026 week 2
13v NE2026 week 1
Jaylen Waddle WR · DEN 50+ receiving yards-112consensus market price

Jaylen WaddleWR · DENReceiving yards

DataPitch 35% · Market 53%

Against this price: Gap -18pp

Under 49.5: -114consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receiving yards
average 42.7, median 36
The line
49.5

His last 5, receiving yards

19v LAC2026 week 5
35v SF2026 week 4
10v LA2026 week 3
138v JAX2026 week 2
2v KC2026 week 1
Receptions111
Courtland Sutton WR · DEN 4+ receptions+115consensus market price

Courtland SuttonWR · DENReceptions

DataPitch 52% · Market 47%

Against this price: Gap +5pp

Under 3.5: -154consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receptions
average 3.9, median 4
The line
3.5

His last 5, receptions

2v LAC2026 week 5
1v SF2026 week 4
3v LA2026 week 3
3v JAX2026 week 2
2v KC2026 week 1
Marvin Mims Jr. WR · DEN 2+ receptions+120consensus market price

Marvin Mims Jr.WR · DENReceptions

DataPitch 79% · Market 46%

Against this price: Gap +33pp

Under 1.5: -157consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receptions
average 3.4, median 3
The line
1.5

His last 5, receptions

2v LAC2026 week 5
1v SF2026 week 4
0v KC2026 week 1
4v NE2025 week 21
8v BUF2025 week 20
More players (9)
Cooper Kupp WR · SEA 3+ receptions+115consensus market price

Cooper KuppWR · SEAReceptions

DataPitch 76% · Market 47%

Against this price: Gap +29pp

Under 2.5: -148consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receptions
average 4.3, median 4
The line
2.5

His last 5, receptions

2v SF2026 week 5
1v LAC2026 week 4
4v WAS2026 week 3
2v ARI2026 week 2
2v NE2026 week 1
Tory Horton WR · SEA 1+ receptions-159consensus market price

Tory HortonWR · SEAReceptions

DataPitch 80% · Market 61%

Against this price: Gap +19pp

Under 0.5: +120consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receptions
average 1.8, median 2
The line
0.5

His last 5, receptions

1v LAC2026 week 4
3v WAS2026 week 3
4v WAS2025 week 9
0v HOU2025 week 7
0v JAX2025 week 6
Troy Franklin WR · DEN 2+ receptions-132consensus market price

Troy FranklinWR · DENReceptions

DataPitch 67% · Market 57%

Against this price: Gap +10pp

Under 1.5: +104consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receptions
average 2.6, median 2
The line
1.5

His last 5, receptions

2v LAC2026 week 5
1v LA2026 week 3
1v JAX2026 week 2
0v KC2026 week 1
0v LAC2025 week 18
DoubtfulJaxon Smith-Njigba WR · SEA 7+ receptions-135consensus market price

Jaxon Smith-NjigbaWR · SEAReceptions

Doubtful: Questionable: Ankle - Questionable for Week 6 at Denver

DataPitch 51% · Market 57%

Against this price: Gap -6pp

Under 6.5: +105consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receptions
average 6.9, median 7
The line
6.5

His last 5, receptions

5v SF2026 week 5
5v LAC2026 week 4
10v WAS2026 week 3
9v ARI2026 week 2
8v NE2026 week 1
J.K. Dobbins RB · DEN 2+ receptions+127consensus market price

J.K. DobbinsRB · DENReceptions

DataPitch 36% · Market 44%

Against this price: Gap -8pp

Under 1.5: -169consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receptions
average 1.3, median 1
The line
1.5

His last 5, receptions

2v LAC2026 week 5
2v SF2026 week 4
1v LA2026 week 3
0v JAX2026 week 2
0v KC2026 week 1
AJ Barner TE · SEA 3+ receptions-120consensus market price

AJ BarnerTE · SEAReceptions

DataPitch 43% · Market 55%

Against this price: Gap -12pp

Under 2.5: -105consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receptions
average 2.5, median 2
The line
2.5

His last 5, receptions

3v SF2026 week 5
1v LAC2026 week 4
5v WAS2026 week 3
1v ARI2026 week 2
2v NE2026 week 1
Rashid Shaheed WR · SEA 3+ receptions+140consensus market price

Rashid ShaheedWR · SEAReceptions

DataPitch 27% · Market 42%

Against this price: Gap -15pp

Under 2.5: -188consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receptions
average 1.8, median 2
The line
2.5

His last 5, receptions

2v SF2026 week 5
1v LAC2026 week 4
2v WAS2026 week 3
3v ARI2026 week 2
1v NE2026 week 1
DoubtfulRJ Harvey RB · DEN 4+ receptions-112consensus market price

RJ HarveyRB · DENReceptions

Doubtful: his rushing yards line fell 20.5 to 14.5 between the open and the close, 29% at consensus: the market is pricing him down

DataPitch 36% · Market 53%

Against this price: Gap -17pp

Under 3.5: -111consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receptions
average 3.1, median 3
The line
3.5

His last 5, receptions

0v LAC2026 week 5
10v SF2026 week 4
6v LA2026 week 3
4v KC2026 week 1
4v NE2025 week 21
Jaylen Waddle WR · DEN 5+ receptions-110consensus market price

Jaylen WaddleWR · DENReceptions

DataPitch 21% · Market 52%

Against this price: Gap -31pp

Under 4.5: -116consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated receptions
average 3, median 3
The line
4.5

His last 5, receptions

2v LAC2026 week 5
5v SF2026 week 4
2v LA2026 week 3
8v JAX2026 week 2
1v KC2026 week 1
Rushing yards8
DoubtfulRJ Harvey RB · DEN 15+ rushing yards-113consensus market price

RJ HarveyRB · DENRushing yards

Doubtful: his rushing yards line fell 20.5 to 14.5 between the open and the close, 29% at consensus: the market is pricing him down

DataPitch 60% · Market 53%

Against this price: Gap +7pp

Under 14.5: -114consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated rushing yards
average 23.8, median 19
The line
14.5

His last 5, rushing yards

7v LAC2026 week 5
25v SF2026 week 4
6v LA2026 week 3
18v KC2026 week 1
37v NE2025 week 21
Sam Darnold QB · SEA 5+ rushing yards-115consensus market price

Sam DarnoldQB · SEARushing yards

DataPitch 54% · Market 54%

Against this price: Gap +0pp

Under 4.5: -113consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated rushing yards
average 9.9, median 5
The line
4.5

His last 5, rushing yards

5v SF2026 week 5
6v LAC2026 week 4
5v WAS2026 week 3
0v NE2026 week 1
5v NE2025 week 22
More players (6)
AJ Barner TE · SEA 1+ rushing yards+230consensus market price

AJ BarnerTE · SEARushing yards

DataPitch 20% · Market 30%

Against this price: Gap -10pp

Under 0.5: -2000consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated rushing yards
average 2.1, median 0
The line
0.5

His last 5, rushing yards

0v SF2026 week 5
0v LAC2026 week 4
0v WAS2026 week 3
1v ARI2026 week 2
0v NE2026 week 1
George Holani RB · SEA 13+ rushing yards-114consensus market price

George HolaniRB · SEARushing yards

DataPitch 34% · Market 53%

Against this price: Gap -19pp

Under 12.5: -115consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated rushing yards
average 12.1, median 6
The line
12.5

His last 5, rushing yards

7v SF2026 week 5
18v LAC2026 week 4
10v WAS2026 week 3
13v ARI2026 week 2
29v NE2026 week 1
DoubtfulJaxon Smith-Njigba WR · SEA 1+ rushing yards+169consensus market price

Jaxon Smith-NjigbaWR · SEARushing yards

Doubtful: Questionable: Ankle - Questionable for Week 6 at Denver

DataPitch 13% · Market 37%

Against this price: Gap -24pp

Under 0.5: -455consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated rushing yards
average 1.5, median 0
The line
0.5

His last 5, rushing yards

16v SF2026 week 5
0v LAC2026 week 4
0v WAS2026 week 3
0v ARI2026 week 2
0v NE2026 week 1
J.K. Dobbins RB · DEN 48+ rushing yards-112consensus market price

J.K. DobbinsRB · DENRushing yards

DataPitch 25% · Market 53%

Against this price: Gap -28pp

Under 47.5: -115consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated rushing yards
average 34, median 28
The line
47.5

His last 5, rushing yards

68v LAC2026 week 5
40v SF2026 week 4
49v LA2026 week 3
36v JAX2026 week 2
36v KC2026 week 1
Bo Nix QB · DEN 16+ rushing yards-114consensus market price

Bo NixQB · DENRushing yards

DataPitch 26% · Market 53%

Against this price: Gap -27pp

Under 15.5: -115consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated rushing yards
average 11.3, median 6
The line
15.5

His last 5, rushing yards

10v LAC2026 week 5
10v SF2026 week 4
7v LA2026 week 3
6v JAX2026 week 2
2v KC2026 week 1
Emanuel Wilson RB · SEA 67+ rushing yards-115consensus market price

Emanuel WilsonRB · SEARushing yards

DataPitch 14% · Market 54%

Against this price: Gap -40pp

Under 66.5: -114consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated rushing yards
average 36, median 30
The line
66.5

His last 5, rushing yards

61v SF2026 week 5
81v LAC2026 week 4
14v WAS2026 week 3
92v ARI2026 week 2
3v NE2026 week 1
Passing yards12
Bo Nix QB · DEN 201+ passing yards-114consensus market price

Bo NixQB · DENPassing yards

DataPitch 58% · Market 53%

Against this price: Gap +5pp

Under 200.5: -114consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated passing yards
average 219, median 213
The line
200.5

His last 5, passing yards

118v LAC2026 week 5
214v SF2026 week 4
183v LA2026 week 3
288v JAX2026 week 2
115v KC2026 week 1
Sam Darnold QB · SEA 221+ passing yards-114consensus market price

Sam DarnoldQB · SEAPassing yards

DataPitch 39% · Market 53%

Against this price: Gap -14pp

Under 220.5: -114consensus market price

Our structural read: how the game should flow, his role in it and the matchup. It has not yet been graded against results at real market prices, so treat it as our view of the player, not a priced offer.

Our simulated passing yards
average 206.6, median 201
The line
220.5

His last 5, passing yards

162v SF2026 week 5
148v LAC2026 week 4
379v WAS2026 week 3
8v NE2026 week 1
194v NE2025 week 22

Every price is a captured market quote in American odds, labelled as such; our percentage and the gap to the market's sit behind the row's tap. A row's colour is our number against the price: green means we like him to go over well beyond what the price says, red means the price likes him more than we do, white means the two are close. A row's last five counts his last five games in this market, most recent first, regular season and playoffs.

Around this game

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